CFB Zeitgeist Score
24
Below cohort in the position cohort. Carried by interceptions at the 92nd percentile.
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi
Below the discourse floor — the honest stats-only state.
488 PASS YDS · 1 PASS TD · -3 RUSH YDS
Where He Ended Up · Transfer
Transferred to Michigan
2025Colorado State
2026Michigan
QB · COLORADO STATE · MOUNTAIN WEST
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi
- 3
- #16
- 6-2 | 200 lb
- Aledo, TX
Heisman Heat
#1838
<1% win probability
Fan Belief
Awaiting
Player-specific FI not yet ingested. Falls back to team mood below.
Respect Gap
Awaiting
Coming online with player-level FI.
Reality Gap
Awaiting
Coming online with player-level FI.
ACCOLADE PROBABILITY
Heisman
<1%
TOP QB AWARD
Davey O'Brien
—
CONSENSUS
All-American
—
Player Standing · 17 rungs
Tier 2 · StarterR05 · Part-time starter
Part-time starter. Splitting first-team reps.
Not on team2-deepStarterRecognizedEliteApex
Development Trajectory · passing yards
2022–2025+152%
Up 152% from first season to most-recent.
Career Arc
HS
Recruit
★★★
CFB
College
Colorado State
NFL
NFL Draft
—
Identity & Role
The durable bio layer: position, size, hometown, and roster role.
Recruiting Pedigree
How big the prospect was before college, and whether the later career arc beat that expectation.
| Class | Profile | Context |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 3-star | 0.8456 | No. 1385 recruit | HighSchool | Colorado State |
Transfer Arc
Portal movement changes role, context, and perception. This keeps that path in one place.
| Season | Move | Context |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | Colorado State -> Michigan | 3-star | 0.8500 | Immediate |
Heisman Lens · 2024 Season · Final
Where the player landed at the end of the listed season — final nowcast rank, win/finalist/ballot probabilities, and the cleanest official Heisman placement on file.
HIGH CONFIDENCE· through week 16Heisman Futures
Not yet listed on major futures markets.
No achievements unlocked yet this season.
Selector Grid · 2025
AP—
FWAA—
AFCA—
WCFF—
SN—
SI—
Selector recognition fills in once the major honors lists (AP, FWAA, AFCA, Walter Camp, Sporting News, SI) are scraped and ingested.
NIL · Recruiting · NFL Draft
Market value, pedigree & pro outcome
Recruit stars
★★★☆☆
to Colorado State
Composite
0.8456
#1385 national
Today’s Hot-Take
The Hot-Take engine fires when this player’s percentile profile crosses a defensible threshold (top 10% in a cohort, 100+ snap sample). When it’s quiet, the model is honoring its “must be defensible” rule.
Anti-Take
PENDINGThe contrarian read fires when the rules-engine detects a stat that complicates the Hot-Take. Quiet here means the model hasn’t found a defensible counter yet — not that one doesn’t exist.
The Room on Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi
Fan sentiment ·
Belief Meter
50
Mixed Sentiment
Top Take
“”
Trajectory
Per-cohort trajectory lands when historical bucket data is aggregated.
Cohort divergence map
- Own fans · n=2
- Rivals · n=2
Rival Radar
How rival fanbases talk about Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi
Only 2 rival mention(s) — below the 4-mention floor for a defensible read.
Signature Story
Awaiting candidate metric
He hasn't written his page yet — we'll start filling it in when there are enough snaps to rank against his peers.
Signature Moment
No signature moment on the ledger yet.
Returns once this player puts together a multi-game body of work — single-game flashes alone don't clear the bar.
Season Pace · Projection
Where the passing totals stand
Through 3g
488Pass yards
1Pass TDs
2INT
Per game
162.7Pass yards
0Pass TDs
1INT
Projected (13g)
2,115Pass yards
4Pass TDs
9INT
To hit 3,000-yard season (currently 488): needs 251.2/game over remaining 10.
To hit 4,000-yard season (currently 488): needs 351.2/game over remaining 10.
To hit 25 passing TDs (currently 1): needs 2.4/game over remaining 10.
To hit 30 passing TDs (currently 1): needs 2.9/game over remaining 10.
To hit 35 passing TDs (currently 1): needs 3.4/game over remaining 10.
What made this player interesting
The fast read on the thing that makes this player more than a generic stat line.
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi's story is about how role and output meet each other. For Colorado State, the card already shows enough current-season production to explain why he is on the serious-player board, and the next layer is determining whether the profile is just very good or actually distinctive.
2025 Season · Final
Traditional stats first. Advanced context underneath.
Last season
QB season snapshot
2025 season snapshot | final
2025 season snapshot | finalData: CFBD player stats + local Heisman modelPeer context: same position + same level
Player identity What kind of player is this?
30-second read
What kind of player is this?
Pocket-leaning against FBS QB peers. The quickest read is whether the profile wins on volume, efficiency, explosiveness, or rushing value.
2025 Season · Final
2025 season snapshot | final
Passing Efficiency
CMP
44 54th
ATT
82 56th
CMP%
53.7% 24th
Y/A
6.0 31st
Passing Production
YDS
488 53rd
TD
1 44th
INT
2 52nd
Rushing
CAR
14 44th
YDS
-3 15th
YPC
-0.2 16th
TD
1 63rd
Game Log · Week-by-week
2025 season · 3 games
| Wk | Opp | CMP/ATT | YDS | TD | INT | YPA | QBR | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | L 21-38@ Washington | 17/32 | 180 | 1 | 1 | 5.6 | 56.8 | Season-high 180 yds |
| Wk 2 | W 21-17vs Northern Colorado | 13/25 | 132 | 0 | 1 | 5.3 | 40.1 | |
| Wk 4 | L 16-17vs UTSA | 14/25 | 176 | 0 | 0 | 7.0 | 12.6 | |
| Total | 44/82 | 488 | 1 | 2 | 6.0 | 36.5 |
Season-by-season tables Career rows + per-season box score
Traditional history
Traditional Stats
Season rows up top, career context at the bottom.
Season context · Team result + system
2022Colorado State3-9HC: Jay Norvell · Run-leaning, slow tempo
2023Colorado State5-7HC: Jay Norvell · Pass-leaning
2025Colorado State2-10HC: Jay Norvell · Balanced
| Season | Team | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Colorado State | 44 | 82 | 53.7% | 488 | 6.0 | 1 | 2 | 102.8 | -- | -- |
| 2023 | Colorado State | 292 | 470 | 62.1% | 3,460 | 7.4 | 22 | 16 | 132.6 | -- | -- |
| 2022 | Colorado State | 17 | 37 | 45.9% | 194 | 5.2 | 1 | 2 | 88.1 | -- | -- |
| Career | 3 loaded seasons | 353 | 589 | 59.9% | 4,142 | 7.0 | 24 | 20 | 125.7 | -- | -- |
| Season | Team | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Colorado State | 14 | -3 | -0.2 | 1 | -- |
| 2023 | Colorado State | 34 | -31 | -0.9 | 1 | -- |
| 2022 | Colorado State | 5 | 6 | 1.2 | 0 | -- |
| Career | 3 loaded seasons | 53 | -28 | -0.5 | 2 | -- |
Advanced layer Usage, value, and context
Advanced metrics second
Advanced Metrics
Usage, value, and opponent-adjusted context.
Opponent-adjusted passing value. Positive numbers mean the quarterback is adding more value through the air than a neutral peer would in the same environment.
How much of the offense runs through the quarterback once passing and rushing responsibility are blended together.
Every percentile is compared against players at the same position and level, so an FBS quarterback is judged against FBS quarterbacks, not the whole sport.
The top tables stick to the stats fans already know from broadcasts and box scores. Advanced context is pushed underneath instead of replacing the basics.
Open full stat explorer
| Group | Metric | Value | Rank | Pct | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Passing | Passing yards | 488 | #181/382 | 53rd pct | Volumevs FBS QB |
| Passing | Pass TD | 1 | #228/407 | 44th pct | Scoringvs FBS QB |
| Passing | Completions | 44 | #178/383 | 54th pct | Volumevs FBS QB |
| Passing | Completion % | 53.7% | #292/383 | 24th pct | Efficiencyvs FBS QB |
| Passing | Yards / attempt | 6.0 | #265/382 | 31st pct | Efficiencyvs FBS QB |
| Rushing | Rushing yards | -3 | #346/408 | 15th pct | Volumevs FBS QB |
| Value | Passing WEPA | +0.30 | #82/200 | 60th pct | Opponent-adjusted passing value | 60 weighted playsvs FBS QB |
| Usage | Role share | 45.4% | #112/428 | 74th pct | Share of team offensevs FBS QB |
| Passing | Attempts | 82 | #182/407 | 56th pct | Volumevs FBS QB |
| Passing | Interceptions | 2 | #195/407 | 52nd pct | Turnoversvs FBS QB |
| Rushing | Carries | 14 | #231/408 | 44th pct | Volumevs FBS QB |
| Rushing | Rushing LONG | 13 | #243/391 | 38th pct | Metricvs FBS QB |
| Rushing | Rush TD | 1 | #151/408 | 63rd pct | Scoringvs FBS QB |
| Rushing | Yards / carry | -0.2 | #341/407 | 16th pct | Efficiencyvs FBS QB |
| Usage | Pass share | 84.8% | #100/428 | 77th pct | Air-game usagevs FBS QB |
| Usage | 3rd-down usage | 67.5% | #50/428 | 89th pct | Money-down loadvs FBS QB |
| Usage | Passing-down usage | 66.2% | #67/428 | 85th pct | Known-passing sharevs FBS QB |
| Usage | 2nd-down usage | 47.8% | #96/428 | 78th pct | Middle-down loadvs FBS QB |
| Usage | Standard-down usage | 33.6% | #145/428 | 66th pct | Base-situation sharevs FBS QB |
| Usage | 1st-down usage | 33.0% | #148/428 | 66th pct | Early-down loadvs FBS QB |
| Usage | Rush share | 8.7% | #182/428 | 58th pct | Ground-game usagevs FBS QB |
| Ball Security | Fumbles lost | 1 | #69/258 | 74th pct | Turnoversvs FBS QB |
Player Standing
Universal 17-step ladder. Tier pills below; accolade streams nested.
AWAITING CLASSIFICATION
On-team2-deepStartingRecognizedEliteApex
AWAITING CLASSIFICATION · Rung None of 16
Why he’s here
Standing classification populates when honors, Heisman, and roster signals all align.
What moves him up
What moves him down
Accolade streams
Status—Awaiting tracker
Heisman model tracks the top FBS contenders weekly; this player hasn't entered the watch list yet.
Splits · Per-game
2025 season · 3 games
Home vs Road
| YDS/g | TD/g | YPA | INT/g | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home2g | 154 | 0.0 | 6.2 | 0.5 |
| Road1g | 180 | 1.0 | 5.6 | 1.0 |
Win vs Loss
| YDS/g | TD/g | YPA | INT/g | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wins1g | 132 | 0.0 | 5.3 | 1.0 |
| Losses2g | 178 | 0.5 | 6.3 | 0.5 |
First half vs Second half
| YDS/g | TD/g | YPA | INT/g | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Weeks 1-73g | 163 | 0.3 | 6.0 | 0.7 |
Pocket and defense-quality (clean vs. pressure) splits are coming soon.
Savant · Box-rate percentiles
Where this profile ranks vs the QB cohort
24Below cohort
Elite: interceptions (92nd). Concern: pass tds (1st).
Percentiles versus same-position peers with enough snaps this season, based on box-score rates.
Pass Profile · Completion depth (PBP)
Where the throws are landing
Short
0–9 yds51%of completions
22 comp5.3 yds avg
Middle
10–19 yds37%of completions
16 comp13.9 yds avg
Deep
20+ yds12%of completions
5 comp31.2 yds avg1 TD
Overall 53.1% completion on 81 attempts.
Advanced Savant · QB · 2024
Percentile Card
Reads as a mid-tier profile across the board..
P4G5All FBS
Advanced Savant
Opponent-adjusted advanced metrics with a cohort filter.
wepa_passing0.3Low (p25–p50) (n=94)
Peer Comparator · Fingerprint match
Three closest profiles by box-rate percentile
Brayden Fowler-NicolosiColorado StateNick VattiatoMiddle Tennessee· 64% simDrake LindseyMinnesota· 58% simLogan FifeNew Mexico State· 57% sim
Interceptions
Fumbles lost
Rush TDs
Rush yards
Yards / att
Completion %
Pass yards
Pass TDs
Closest peers by overall box-score percentile profile at the same position.
Player DNA
The Pocket Passer
Balanced passer who operates within the system. Profile sits near league average across dimensions.
QB
His 2025 production profile sits closest to Zach Gibson’s 2022 season.
Zach Gibson
72%match
#2
Cole Snyder
66%
#3
Ben Finley
63%
#4
Brandon Rose
63%
#5
Alex Padilla
62%
Matches Zach on
INT rate
Rush usage
Total pass EPA (college ability)
Differs from Zach on
EPA / dropback (adj) (higher)
Completion % (lower)
Through 4 college seasons, his career arc tracks closest to Max Cutforth’s path through Boise State.
Max Cutforth
87%match
#2
Ashton Daniels
All-ACC
87%
#3
Cam Fancher
85%
#4
Mark Gronowski
85%
#5
Evan Simon
84%
Matches Max on
Height
Yards per attempt
Completion %
As a senior, his production profile tracks closest to Cade McNamara's senior season at Iowa (2023).
Cade McNamara
46%match
All-Big Ten
#2
Logan Fife
45%
#3
AJ Swann
40%
#4
Evan Simon
37%
#5
Kedon Slovis
36%
Matches Cade on
Height
Differs from Cade on
Class year (lower)
TD rate (lower)
Rush yards / carry (higher)
Supporting Cast · Scheme
Staff and system around the player
Head Coach
Jay Norvell
Pass share
52.1%
393 pass / 362 run
Plays / game
62.9
12 games
OL sack rate (allowed)
11.1%
315 dropbacks · PBP
Scheme: Balanced.
Coaching Lineage · 2022–2025
1 coach2022
Jay Norvell
Colorado State
2023
Jay Norvell
Colorado State
2025
Jay Norvell
Colorado State
Played his entire career under Jay Norvell.
Bio · Recruiting · Transfer · Roster
Off-field context — switch tabs to drill into recruit profile, transfer arc, or roster timeline.
HometownAledo, TX
Height6'2"
Weight200 lb
Class3
PositionQB
Jersey16
No fields populated yet.
No fields populated yet.
Current teamColorado State
ConferenceMountain West
Joined2025
Career arc4 season(s)
Trophy Case · Detail
Every honor on the ledger, broken out by stream and selector.
No formal honors on the ledger yet
All-America, all-conference, player-of-the-week, watch-list, and postseason awards land here when they're earned. The absence is the signal: most players never collect formal honors, and that's its own kind of context.
Honors Timeline
Season-end distinction and week-by-week recognition on one timeline.
| Season | Honor | Scope | Team / Selector | Context |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| No formal honors on the ledger yet. All-America, all-conference, weekly awards, watch lists, and postseason trophies land here when they’re earned. | ||||
Heisman By Year
Modeled rank and official finish by season.
| Season | Team | Role | Latest Model | Forecast | Win | Finalist | Official Finish | Points | Context |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | Colorado State | QB3 | #1838 | #2119 | 0.0% | 0.0% | -- | -- | W16 snapshot | Mountain West |
| 2023 | Colorado State | QB3 | #545 | #759 | 0.0% | 0.0% | -- | -- | W19 snapshot | Mountain West |
| 2022 | Colorado State | QB3 | #2562 | #3028 | 0.0% | 0.0% | -- | -- | W20 snapshot | Mountain West |
Roster Timeline
Team, conference, and class by season.
| Season | Team | Conference | Pos | Class | Bio |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Colorado State | Mountain West | QB | 3 | No. 16 | 6-2 | 200 lb | Aledo, TX |
| 2024 | Colorado State | Mountain West | QB | 3 | No. 16 | 6-2 | 200 lb | Aledo, TX |
| 2023 | Colorado State | Mountain West | QB | 3 | No. 16 | 6-2 | 200 lb | Aledo, TX |
| 2022 | Colorado State | Mountain West | QB | 3 | No. 16 | 6-2 | 200 lb | Aledo, TX |