Arch Manning

#16 · QB · Texas6′4″ · 222 lb · New Orleans, LA · Isidore Newman

ZPR4863rd of 119 QBsHeismanNo. 13in our modelLast gameW 31–3vs Mississippi State · Oct 31
Nextat MissouriSat Nov 7 · 12 pm ET
via texassports.com ↗

Graded Shaky or Rough in each of the last two games.

Last game: W 31-3 vs Mississippi State, Oct 31 · 16 of 20 for 220 yards, 3 touchdowns, a lost fumble · 13 carries for 10 yards. Started all eight of Texas’s games.

Texas’s next game: at Missouri, Sat Nov 7, 12:00 p.m. ET · ESPN

Texas is 6-2 in the eight games played. A balanced passer.

Weakest: sacked on 10% of dropbacks, 12th highest of 158 starters.

Passing yards

1,730

141 of 217, 65%

TD–INT

15–7

8.0 per throw

NCAA rating

148.3

41st of 119

ZPR

48

63rd of 119

How ZPR works

Up and down: great in 2, shaky or worse in 4.

  • 3-0 against ranked teams, 203 passing yards a game.

Best by our grade: Texas State. Lowest: UTSA. Biggest game: Ohio State, No. 1. Best play: Completion for 15 yards, touchdown, against Oklahoma, Q4 6:32. Win chance 25% to 53%. Costliest play: Fumble, against Florida, Q4 1:58. Win chance 59% to 13%.

Tap a game for its plays

Q1Q2Q3Q4

Season

Steady through the game

How to read this

Each column is a quarter. Blue and up is a good stretch for the quarterback, red and down a bad one, hatched means the game was already decided. A red cross is a turnover and a black dot a touchdown. The word on the right grades the whole game. A gold line means the r/CFB game thread kept naming the quarterback. Dashed outlines on the Season row are last season’s average. Tap a game to open its plays: each bar is one of the quarterback’s plays, up helped the team’s chance of winning and down hurt it, and the grey line is that chance.

The word grades the game against every FBS quarterback start, from Rough to Great, using the same throws as the season Zeitgeist Passer Rating and adjusting for the defense faced. Bars are points added per throw in that quarter. The Season row leaves out quarters after a game was decided.

Style of play

Balanced

Why this word
Runs5.1 a gameRarelyA lot
Throws8.5 yards past the lineShortDeep
Completes63% by play-by-playFewerMore
Takes sacks10% of dropbacksRarelyOften

The dot is this quarterback, among this season’s starters; the tick is the middle.

Throws at a middling depth and runs some. 5.1 carries a game. Closest matches: Mateer, Sellers, Crowder ’25, Williams.

Where the throws go

Behind the line28%typical 17%
Short39%typical 47%
Middle18%typical 22%
Deep15%typical 14%

Runs 5.1 times a game; 59% of starters run less.

Closest in style

MateerSellersCrowder ’25WilliamsThis QB

Nearer the middle means more alike.

  • Mateer Oklahoma · Mobile passer
    1,835 yards, 13 TD, 7 INT so far. Both are less efficient and throw interceptions.
  • Sellers South Carolina · Dual-threat
    1,849 yards, 16 TD, 7 INT so far. Both score a lot and throw interceptions.
  • Crowder ’25 Troy 2025 · Balanced
    1,327 yards, 11 TD, 5 INT. Both take sacks and score a lot.
  • Williams Washington · Dual-threat
    1,495 yards, 9 TD, 3 INT so far. Both take sacks and throw behind the line a lot.

Compared with the 158 FBS starters this season for throws and running, and with 219 quarterbacks across 2 seasons for the matches, on how they play and how they have done.

This week

  • RecordTexas is 6-2, No. 10 in the AP poll (week 10).
  • Fans after Mississippi State

    The Colts would drop a 1st on another Manning.

    Texas fan

What’s being said

43 stories this week, from 14 outlets.

Oct 29: 9Oct 30: 9Oct 31: 6Nov 1: 4Nov 2: 9Nov 3: 6W 31-3 vs Mississippi StateWOct 29Nov 4Most in a day: 9
Oct 29: 9Oct 30: 9Oct 31: 6Nov 1: 4Nov 2: 9Nov 3: 6W 31-3 vs Mississippi StateWOct 29Nov 4Most in a day: 9
Stories per day. W and L: the team’s results.

Texas football: Arch Manning posts solid numbers in Mississippi State win - Austin American-Statesman

Austin American-Statesman +1 Nov 1

All 920 stories this season

Worth knowing

  • Arch Manning had 305 passing yards in the 59-7 win over Texas State, the best game of the season so far.
  • Arch Manning is rated 91 overall in EA College Football 27, tied for 6th among the game's quarterbacks.

His most important play this season

  1. Q4, 6:32 · Texas down 7, ties itArch Manning finds Jermaine Bishop Jr. for a 15-yard touchdownTexas at Oklahoma, week 6Q4, 6:32 · Texas 24, Oklahoma 24▲28%Texas’s chance to win, 25% to 53%▲28%Texas’s chance to win, 25% to 53%A.Manning pass complete short left to J.Bishop Jr. caught at OU04, for 15 yards to the OU00 touchdown, 1ST DOWN, kick goodWatch from this playESPN College Football

All 16 of his plays on video

The story

As of

The grandson of Archie, nephew of Peyton and Eli, was the most-hyped recruit of his generation before he'd thrown a college pass — and he sat, behind Quinn Ewers, while the legend grew on zero evidence. His 2025 debut as the starter was supposed to settle it; for five games it only complicated it. He averaged an interception a game, the offense sputtered, and the takes turned. Then the season flipped: over the final eight games he turned the ball over twice, and across his last six he was responsible for 20 touchdowns through the air, on the ground, and even on a catch.

Read the rest of the story

That late surge is why he enters 2026 as a betting co-favorite — by some books the favorite — and why one analyst flatly said there's 'a 0% chance' he isn't in New York for the ceremony. The bar isn't a good season; it's a coronation. A Manning has never won a Heisman; Texas has produced only two. He'd close both gaps at once.

The forward question isn't talent — the arm was never in doubt. It's whether the second half of 2025 was the real Arch and the first half was the learning curve, or the other way around. In an SEC where Texas is built to win it all, a full season at his ceiling makes him the story of the sport. Anything less reopens the only debate that's ever followed him: was the hype ever real?

As of Oct 28: Manning has thrown for 1,510 yards and 12 touchdowns with seven interceptions in seven starts. Texas lost 27-24 to Oklahoma on Oct 10 and 27-24 to Florida on Oct 17, then beat No. 7 Ole Miss 34-27 on Oct 24, when he ran for two touchdowns, the second a 1-yard run with about eight minutes left.

Sources