Brennan Armstrong: QB · NC State · #5.
Closest statistical matches, adjusted for opponent strength.
Brennan Armstrong
Extends plays on the move until something opens up. The six seasons span two programs and three head coaches: Bronco Mendenhall, Tony Elliott and Dave Doeren. ACC Quarterback Player of the Week in 2023 was the second season with an honor. On tape: 334 passing yards and 22 rushing yards against North Carolina, Week 13, 2023.
Play style
Makes plays with feet when the pocket collapses. Efficiency still on the rise.
Checkdown vs gunslinger · 3rd-and-long
Where the completions actually land
54.3% completion on 3rd-and-8+, but only 35.9% conversion-per-dropback — 26.3% of completions land short of the sticks.
Where completions land is fact — whether incompletions were aimed deep is intent, not recorded here, so this card counts completions only. checkdown by design
Short-yardage / goal-line · enumeration
Who gets the tough yard
11 of 14 on 3rd/4th-and-2-or-less (78.6%). 8 of the team's 23 inside-the-5 carries (34.8%).
No outlet on our list has written about this player by name this season.
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Game log · Week-by-week
2023 season · 12 games
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| Wk | Opp | CMP/ATT | YDS | TD | INT | YPA | QBR | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | W 24-14@ UConn | 17/26 | 155 | 0 | 0 | 6.0 | 65.0 | |
| Wk 2 | L 24-45vs No. 10 Notre Dame | 22/47 | 260 | 2 | 3 | 5.5 | 26.8 | 3 INTs — rough day |
| Wk 3 | W 45-7vs VMI | 27/32 | 264 | 1 | 0 | 8.3 | 82.1 | |
| Wk 4 | W 24-21@ Virginia | 15/30 | 180 | 2 | 1 | 6.0 | 48.7 | |
| Wk 5 | L 10-13vs Louisville | 13/25 | 112 | 0 | 2 | 4.5 | 13.7 | |
| Wk 6 | W 48-41vs Marshall | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Wk 9 | W 24-17vs Clemson | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Wk 10 | W 20-6vs Miami | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Wk 11 | W 26-6@ Wake Forest | 12/17 | 111 | 1 | 0 | 6.5 | 98.0 | |
| Wk 12 | W 35-28@ Virginia Tech | 18/26 | 203 | 2 | 0 | 7.8 | 91.1 | |
| Wk 13 | W 39-20vs North Carolina | 22/31 | 334 | 3 | 0 | 10.8 | 82.6 | Season-high 334 yds |
 Bowl | L 19-28vs Kansas State | 14/28 | 164 | 0 | 1 | 5.9 | 67.0 | |
| Total | 160/262 | 1783 | 11 | 7 | 6.8 | — |
Week 12 · 2023
W 35-28
203 yds · 2 TD · 0 INT · QBR 91.1 · 89 rush yds (21 car) · 2 TD
Edged out Virginia Tech on the road in a shootout.
With C. Noonkester — 43 yards per punt · 6 punts · 2 inside the 20 · K. Concepcion — 7 rec · 63 yds · 2 TD · 44 rush yds (9 car) · 17 yds · 1 TD · 0 INT
The plays that mattered most
Pass Profile · Completions by yards gained (PBP)
Adjusted ANY/A, sack rate, and where the yards came from
Totals here are the box score's. Play-by-play lists 258 passing plays (155 completions) against the box score's 262 attempts (160 completions), and the depth buckets use play-by-play.
Adjusted ANY/A
5.84119 of 212 QBsSack rate
5.4%101 of 212 QBsRarely sacked (101 of 212), but Adjusted ANY/A hasn't followed (119 of 212).
Adjusted ANY/A uses full-season box-score totals (attempts, yards, TDs, INTs); sack rate is play-by-play-derived.
Short
0–9 ydsMiddle
10–19 ydsDeep
20+ ydsOverall 61.1% completion on 262 attempts · 24 deep completions averaging 29.8 yds.
Is he a different quarterback when it matters
Each situation vs his own 2023 baseline
-55
percentile points worse on first down
Deltas are vs. this player’s own season baseline, never a league average. League sack rate by down is shown as context because sack attribution isn’t incompletion-denominated.
Splits · Per-game
2023 season · 12 games
Home vs Road
| YDS/g | TD/g | YPA | INT/g | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home7g | 139 | 0.9 | 7.3 | 0.7 |
| Road4g | 162 | 1.2 | 6.6 | 0.2 |
First half vs Second half
| YDS/g | TD/g | YPA | INT/g | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Weeks 1-77g | 162 | 0.7 | 6.0 | 1.0 |
| Weeks 8+5g | 130 | 1.2 | 8.4 | 0.0 |
Supporting cast · Scheme
Staff and system around the player
Head Coach
Dave Doeren
Pass share
44.5%
378 pass / 472 run
Plays / game
65.4
13 games
Scheme: Run-leaning.
Player standing · 2023
262 pass attempts and 143 carries in 12 games, about as many passes and runs a game as a typical FBS quarterback who plays every week.
Recognition
Production · CFB Zeitgeist Score
Three-star recruit. Now #68 at the position.
How it ended
Six seasons, at Virginia and NC State, 10,811 passing yards — the college career is complete.
Four or fewer games in the first season, then ten or more.
The role got bigger.
Trophy case · Confirmed honors
What the selectors said
ALL-ACC
All-ACC mention (2021)
Weekly recognition
3 weekly honors (2021)
5 career weekly honors across 2 seasons
Coaching lineage · 2018–2023
3 coachesPlayed for 3 head coaches at 2 schools: Bronco Mendenhall, Tony Elliott and Dave Doeren.
