Brennan Armstrong

Senior quarterback for NC State. 2023: 1,783 passing yards, 11 TD, 7 INT.

QB · NC State · Sr. · #5

6′2″ · 212 lb · Shelby, OH

CFB Index 47 · #68 of 140 QBsHigh confidenceNC State 2023 alumnus

Recruiting

3★

DUAL recruit

No. 619 nationally · Signed with Virginia

Statement game554 yds · 4 TDat North Carolina (FBS) · L 39-59

Top 0.1% passing yards game since 2021.

Armstrong should’ve held it there, had spacer/CFB game thread · ▲ 7His career numbers, season by season

The story

4 quarterback for NC State. 2023: 1,783 passing yards, 11 TD, 7 INT.

Signed as a 3-star recruit to Virginia in 2018.
Transferred from Virginia to NC State in 2023.

His career, year by year

How it ended

Six seasons at NC State, 10,811 passing yards — his college career is complete.

His career

Nobody recruited him. He earned the honors anyway.

20183 games

Signed with Virginia3-star out of Shelby

202111 games

The role got bigger.

All-ACCthird

202312 games

Entered the portal

Career arc

Recruit

★★★

#619 national

CFB

College

2 teams

2018–2023

NFL

NFL Draft

—

Not drafted

Trophy case · Confirmed honors

What the selectors said

6 honors · 1 category

🎖

ALL-ACC

All-ACC mention (2021)

Coaching lineage · 2018–2023

1 coach

2018–2023

Dave Doeren

NC State

Played his entire career under Dave Doeren.

2023 snapshot

Season context · Team result + system

2018Virginia8-5HC: Bronco Mendenhall · Run-leaning

2019Virginia9-5HC: Bronco Mendenhall · Balanced

2020Virginia5-5HC: Bronco Mendenhall · Balanced

2021Virginia6-6HC: Bronco Mendenhall · Pass-heavy

2022Virginia3-7HC: Tony Elliott · Balanced

2023NC State9-4HC: Dave Doeren · Run-leaning

Where this profile ranks vs the QB cohort

Box-score + play-by-play EPA percentiles

47Rotational starter #68 of 140?

High confidence13 metrics · season cumulative

Elite: rush yards (93rd percentile). Strength: rush tds (86th percentile). Concern: interception rate (5th percentile).

Real play-by-play efficiency

Success rate#84 / 177 · 53rd pct

42.4%

Sack rate#85 / 177 · 52nd pct

5.7%

EPA / dropback#97 / 177 · 45th pct

0.25

Explosive rate#102 / 177 · 43rd pct

9.6%

Interception rate#169 / 177 · 5th pct

2.2%

Box-score rates (8)

Rush yards#13 / 179 · 93rd pct

665

Rush TDs#21 / 179 · 86th pct

Fumbles lost#24 / 167 · 71st pct

Completion %#92 / 179 · 49th pct

61.1%

Pass yards#95 / 179 · 47th pct

1783

Pass TDs#95 / 179 · 44th pct

Interceptions#98 / 179 · 42nd pct

Yards / att#116 / 179 · 34th pct

6.8

Season trend

Last seasonThis season

EPA / dropback

6th → 45th percentile

Success rate

32nd → 53rd percentile

Explosive rate

20th → 43rd percentile

Sack rate

12th → 52nd percentile

Interception rate

36th → 5th percentile

Percentiles versus same-position peers with enough snaps this season. Most bars are box-score rates; EPA / success-rate bars are computed from real play-by-play (offense only — no defensive EPA model exists yet).

Passing profile

Pass Profile · Completions by yards gained (PBP)

Adjusted ANY/A, sack rate, and where the yards came from

155/258 (60.1%) · 11 TD · 7 INT

258 of 262 attempts matched to play-by-play

Adjusted ANY/A

5.84119 of 212 QBs

Sack rate

5.4%101 of 212 QBs

Rarely sacked (101 of 212), but Adjusted ANY/A hasn't followed (119 of 212).

Adjusted ANY/A uses full-season box-score totals (attempts, yards, TDs, INTs); sack rate is play-by-play-derived.

Short

0–9 yds

57%of completions

89 comp4.8 yds avg2 TD

Middle

10–19 yds

27%of completions

42 comp13.8 yds avg3 TD

Deep

20+ yds

15%of completions

24 comp29.8 yds avg4 TD

Overall 60.1% completion on 258 attempts · 24 deep completions averaging 29.8 yds.

Situational

Is he a different quarterback when it matters

Each situation vs his own 2023 baseline

-55

percentile points worse on first down

BaselineThis situation

Down 1

-55 pct pts vs baseline · sacks 2/89 (2.2%) · league sack rate 4.9% · ~our read

Down 2

+10 pct pts vs baseline · sacks 5/72 (6.9%) · league sack rate 5.2% · ~our read

Down 3+

+73 pct pts vs baseline · sacks 5/58 (8.6%) · league sack rate 9.1% · ~our read

Deltas are vs. this player’s own season baseline, never a league average. League sack rate by down is shown as context because sack attribution isn’t incompletion-denominated.

Splits & context

Splits · Per-game

2023 season · 12 games

Home/Road · Season halves

Home vs Road

	YDS/g	TD/g	YPA	INT/g
Home7g	139	0.9	7.3	0.7
Road5g	163	1.0	6.4	0.4

First half vs Second half

	YDS/g	TD/g	YPA	INT/g
Weeks 1-77g	162	0.7	6.0	1.0
Weeks 8+5g	130	1.2	8.4	0.0

Supporting cast · Scheme

Staff and system around the player

2026 season

Head Coach

Dave Doeren

Scheme reads (pass share, tempo, sack rate) need at least 3 team games — 2 games in so far.

Awards

Player standing · 2023

Impact starter

Producing measurably more than a replacement-level starter.

Recognition

Roster2-deepStarterRecognizedEliteApex

Production · CFB Index Score

47 · #68 of 140 QBs

Three-star recruit. Now #68 at the position.

Career stats

Season	Team
2023	NC State	160	262	61.1%	1,783	6.8	11	7	126.7	39	--	--
2022	Virginia	185	338	54.7%	2,210	6.5	7	12	109.4	29	--	--
2021	Virginia	327	501	65.3%	4,444	8.9	31	10	156.2	78	--	--
2020	Virginia	157	268	58.6%	2,116	7.9	18	11	138.9	57	--	--
2019	Virginia	15	20	75.0%	196	9.8	1	2	153.8	--	--	--
2018	Virginia	2	5	40.0%	62	12.4	1	0	210.2	--	--	--
Career		846	1,394	60.7%	10,811	7.8	69	42	136.1	54	--	--

Season	Team
2023	NC State	143	665	4.7	7	--
2022	Virginia	123	371	3.0	6	--
2021	Virginia	97	256	2.6	9	--
2020	Virginia	126	552	4.4	5	--
2019	Virginia	7	19	2.7	0	--
2018	Virginia	9	74	8.2	0	--
Career		505	1,937	3.8	27	--

Signature game

SIGNATURE GAME · Week 9 · 2023

W 24–17

vs Clemson

5 rush yds (3 car)

A wire-to-wire battle — won by 7 at home.

With C. Noonkester — 41 AVG · 4 IN 20 · 52 LONG · K. Concepcion — 51 rush yds (2 car)

Signature plays

Signature plays · top plays by |EPA|

The plays that mattered most

fact

Week 3 · VMI · 3&8 · Q1 · EPA +4.58Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Julian Gray for 64 yds to the VMI 16 for a 1ST down
Week 5 · Louisville · 1&10 · Q3 · EPA -4.44Brennan Armstrong pass intercepted, touchback. Cam'Ron Kelly return for no gain
Week 1 · Kansas State · 3&12 · Q3 · EPA +4.10Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Kevin Concepcion for 40 yds to the KSU 39 for a 1ST down
Week 1 · Kansas State · 4&1 · Q2 · EPA -4.03Brennan Armstrong run for no gain to the KSU 10
Week 4 · Virginia · 3&14 · Q2 · EPA +4.03Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Kevin Concepcion for 30 yds to the UVA 28 for a 1ST down
Week 1 · Kansas State · 2&10 · Q3 · EPA +3.73Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Dacari Collins for 38 yds to the KSU 37 for a 1ST down
Week 4 · Virginia · 1&10 · Q3 · EPA +3.69Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Kevin Concepcion for 48 yds for a TD (Brayden Narveson KICK)
Week 3 · VMI · 2&13 · Q4 · EPA +3.42Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Kevin Concepcion for 31 yds to the VMI 47 for a 1ST down
Week 13 · North Carolina · 3&9 · Q3 · EPA +3.39Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Dacari Collins for 20 yds for a TD (Brayden Narveson KICK)
Week 12 · Virginia Tech · 3&4 · Q2 · EPA +3.38Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Kevin Concepcion for 28 yds for a TD (Brayden Narveson KICK)

Game log

Game log · Week-by-week

2023 season · 12 games

Box score · CFBD

Wk	Opp	CMP/ATT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA	QBR	Note
Wk 1	W 24-14@ UConn	17/26	155	0	0	6.0	65.0
Wk 2	L 24-45vs Notre Dame	22/47	260	2	3	5.5	26.8	3 INTs — rough day
Wk 3	W 45-7vs VMI	27/32	264	1	0	8.3	82.1
Wk 4	W 24-21@ Virginia	15/30	180	2	1	6.0	48.7
Wk 5	L 10-13vs Louisville	13/25	112	0	2	4.5	13.7
Wk 6	W 48-41vs Marshall	—	—	—	—	—	—
Wk 9	W 24-17vs Clemson	—	—	—	—	—	—
Wk 10	W 20-6vs Miami	—	—	—	—	—	—
Wk 11	W 26-6@ Wake Forest	12/17	111	1	0	6.5	98.0
Wk 12	W 35-28@ Virginia Tech	18/26	203	2	0	7.8	91.1
Wk 13	W 39-20vs North Carolina	22/31	334	3	0	10.8	82.6	Season-high 334 yds
Bowl	L 19-28@ Kansas State	14/28	164	0	1	5.9	67.0
Total		160/262	1783	11	7	6.8	63.9

Stats from CFBD · ESPN · fan discourse. Every figure computed from source tables — not invented. Methodology