Tony Elliott
Followed Bronco Mendenhall. Tony Elliott held Virginia at National Program III for 5 seasons.
In his own words
15 carries every game is probably not the way that we want to make a living
The thing that caught my attention was just his speed
Twelve personnel … became more a part of the game plan when Rico [Flores] went down to practice this week
It really gives us the ability to cover both edges, and … do some of our zone read stuff and get on the perimeter and let the backs get the ball in space. It's critical to what we do.
We don't have to reinvent the wheel
I think that everyone knows the road that we've been on
That vision from day one was to become the model. Remember, that was four years ago
I'd say the passing game is probably the last component that we're going to get to from a development standpoint because [Beebe] showed immediately that he can play running back and be a really good one
The hardest part is handling success
He's a competitor, and he has a ton of leadership and a lot of moxie
Career arc
His real stature score, season by season, across every program he’s coached — so a stretch that stays in one tier the whole way can still climb or sink on the line, not just flatten out. Node color marks the tier reached. Which program a stretch belongs to is carried by the shaded lane behind it.
Reached National Program in his 1st career season — faster than 41% of the 675 FBS coaches who have ever reached National Program (rank #1 of 675 by seasons-to-arrival).
Style position and drift
Where each stint’s offense sat between run-first and pass-first, and how far it moved from one season to the next. The band is that stint’s real season-to-season range, not a fixed-width box.
Season-to-season pass-rate range for all 258 FBS coaching stints with at least three covered seasons, 2014–2025.
The big-game ledger
How he does in the games that matter most — rivalry record, performance broken out by real opponent tier, one-score games, and his toughest historical matchup.
0–2 against his rivals. Just 1–2 against Dave Doeren.
His own effect, isolated
A statistical estimate of this coach’s contribution to team performance, separated from that season’s roster talent, returning production, and his coordinators — pooled across his whole head-coaching career.
Model fit as of 2026-09-04.
Coaching career
7th-best Virginia tenure of 16 by the numbers.
Underperforms his recruiting talent on offense and performs about as expected for his recruiting talent on defense.
Followed Bronco Mendenhall (2016–2021).
| Season | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Record & result | ||||||
| Record | 3–7 | 3–9 | 5–7 | 11–3 | 0–0 | |
| Postseason | — | — | — | W bowl | — | |
| Recruiting rank | #66 | #64 | #88 | #58 | #111 | |
| Style — pass rate | ||||||
| Pass rate | 51.0 | 46.6 | 48.2 | 47.4 | 26.9 | |
| Coordinators | ||||||
| OC | Desmond Kitchings | Desmond Kitchings | Desmond Kitchings | Desmond Kitchings | Desmond Kitchings | |
| DC | John Rudzinski | John Rudzinski | John Rudzinski | John Rudzinski | John Rudzinski | |
| Outcome — opponent-adjusted efficiency percentile | ||||||
| Offense | 6 | 38 | 20 | 31 | 40 | |
| Defense | 71 | 33 | 20 | 91 | 74 | |
| Tendencies — play-by-play, neutral script (2021+ only) | ||||||
| 1st-down pass% | 52.6 | 49.8 | 51.3 | 51.8 | 38.3 | |
| Red-zone pass% | 40.5 | 39.6 | 41.7 | 31.2 | 17.6 | |
| 4th-down go%opp. territory | 29.7 | 34.2 | 43.2 | 44.4 | — | |
A portal-built roster.
Brings in bigger-than-position-typical players than most.
Recruits older, more experienced transfers than most.
4 NFL Draft picks: Jelani Woods (2022), Dontayvion Wicks (2023), Malik Washington (2024), Jonas Sanker (2025)