No. 14 Wake Forest routs Virginia 51-7

Team pages: Virginia · Wake Forest

Virginia4-57
No. 14 Wake Forest7-151Final
Sat, Oct 31 · Allegacy Federal Credit Union Stadium, Winston-Salem, N.C. · Crowd 30,218ESPN2

No. 14 Wake Forest routed Virginia 51-7.

We had Wake Forest favored. It won.

Next: Virginia vs California, Sat Nov 14

Next: Wake Forest vs Merrimack, Sat Nov 7 · 3:30 PM ET

How it swung

Before kickoff, our ratings gave Wake Forest an 82% chance, and the closing betting line (Wake Forest was a 13.5-point favorite) put it at 86%.

FinalWake Forest 51-7 VirginiaWake Forest wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.
50%75%90%Q1Q2Q3Q4Wake ForestWon51-7Scores
50%75%90%Q1Q2Q3Q4Wake ForestWon51-7Scores
50%10%25%Q1Q2Q3Q4Wake ForestLowest 0%Lost7-51Scores
50%10%25%Q1Q2Q3Q4Wake ForestLowest 0%Lost7-51Scores

No single play moved the chance by 20 points.

No single play moved the chance by 20 points.

Wake Forest’s chance to win after every play.
How to read this chartStarts from the pregame line (Wake Forest -13.5), at 87% for Wake Forest (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores.

Watch the plays

The bar and the arrow show Wake Forest’s chance to win after each play; the logo is the team the play helped.

  1. Q1, 12:29Clark 2-yd TD runWake Forest goes ahead 7-0Q1, 12:29 · Wake Forest 7, Virginia 0▲3%Wake Forest’s chance to win, 91% to 94%▲3%Wake Forest’s chance to win, 91% to 94%Watch from this playESPN College Football
  2. Q1, 7:52Pribula intercepted by Johnson at the WFU35Q1, 7:52 · Wake Forest 7, Virginia 07-0score after the play7-0score after the playWatch from this playESPN College Football
  3. Q1, 4:12Lopez sacked for a 5-yd lossQ1, 4:12 · Wake Forest 7, Virginia 07-0score after the play7-0score after the playWatch from this playESPN College Football
  4. Q2, 11:33Clark 4-yd TD runWake Forest leads 17-0Q2, 11:33 · Wake Forest 17, Virginia 0▲4%Wake Forest’s chance to win, 95% to 99%▲4%Wake Forest’s chance to win, 95% to 99%Watch from this playESPN College Football
  5. Q2, 2:40Lopez sacked for a 11-yd lossQ2, 2:40 · Wake Forest 17, Virginia 017-0score after the play17-0score after the playWatch from this playESPN College Football
  6. Q3, 8:48Pribula sacked for a 11-yd lossQ3, 8:48 · Wake Forest 23, Virginia 023-0score after the play23-0score after the playWatch from this playESPN College Football
  7. Q3, 7:07Lopez 10-yd TD pass to HernandezWake Forest leads 30-0Q3, 7:07 · Wake Forest 30, Virginia 030-0score after the play30-0score after the playWatch from this playESPN College Football
  8. Q3, 4:24Clark 2-yd TD runWake Forest leads 37-0Q3, 4:24 · Wake Forest 37, Virginia 037-0score after the play37-0score after the playWatch from this playESPN College Football
  9. Q3, 1:57Searcy 7-yd TD runWake Forest leads 44-0Q3, 1:57 · Wake Forest 44, Virginia 044-0score after the play44-0score after the playWatch from this playESPN College Football
  10. Q3, 0:50Pribula 47-yd TD pass to Martincuts it to 44-7Q3, 0:50 · Wake Forest 44, Virginia 744-7score after the play44-7score after the playWatch from this playESPN College Football
  11. Q4, 9:08McCaleb 27-yd TD run; unnecessary roughness on UvaWake Forest leads 51-7Q4, 9:08 · Wake Forest 51, Virginia 751-7score after the play51-7score after the playWatch from this playESPN College Football

Every drive

Wake Forest scored on 9 of its 10 drives; Virginia on 1 of its 11.

Wake Forest’s drives are teal, Virginia’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.

own goalgoal lineQ1Virginia: Punt, from 75 yards out to 68PuntWake Forest: Touchdown, from 51 yards out to 0TouchdownVirginia: Interception, from 75 yards out to 40InterceptionWake Forest: Field goal, from 63 yards out to 27Field goalVirginia: Punt, from 75 yards out to 60PuntWake Forest: Touchdown, from 81 yards out to 0TouchdownQ2Virginia: Turned over on downs, from 81 yards out to 6DownsWake Forest: Field goal, from 94 yards out to 7Field goalVirginia: End of half, from 75 yards out to 76End of halfQ3Wake Forest: Field goal, from 75 yards out to 26Field goalVirginia: Punt, from 75 yards out to 82PuntWake Forest: Touchdown, from 14 yards out to 0TouchdownVirginia: Turned over on downs, from 75 yards out to 51DownsWake Forest: Touchdown, from 49 yards out to 0TouchdownVirginia: Punt, from 65 yards out to 60PuntWake Forest: Touchdown, from 82 yards out to 0TouchdownVirginia: Touchdown, from 75 yards out to 0TouchdownWake Forest: Touchdown, from 75 yards out to 0TouchdownQ4Virginia: Turned over on downs, from 81 yards out to 5DownsWake Forest: Punt, from 95 yards out to 84PuntVirginia: End of game, from 72 yards out to 31End of game

When fans got loud

Roaring

The loudest stretch came in the third quarter.

Jump to the loudest stretch

The jump was roaring; the crowd was quiet.

FirstSecondThirdFourthWake Forest fansVirginia fansusual

Fans of both teams were loud at once in the bracketed stretch.

“Shades of what happened to Morris last year, get off your high horse”
A Virginia fan

What it cost

Wake Forest’s chance to make the playoff rose from 9% to 12%.

Make the playoff

Virginia · lost0% → 0%
Wake Forest · won9% → ▲12%9%▲ 12%

Win the conference

Virginia · lost0% → 0%
Wake Forest · won9% → ▲11%9%▲ 11%

Before the game (October 30, 2026) → after this result alone, in our model. Other games that weekend move it too, so the team page may differ.

Wake Forest plays vs Merrimack on Sat Nov 7 with a 12% chance to make the playoff.

Box score

Wake Forest 51, Virginia 7

Wake Forest covered −13.5 by 30.5. The total, 58, went over 48.5.

VirginiaWake ForestTotal yardsVirginia 330Wake Forest 538330538Passing yardsVirginia 314Wake Forest 229314229Rushing yardsVirginia 16Wake Forest 30916309First downsVirginia 18Wake Forest 281828TurnoversVirginia 1Wake Forest 010Time of possessionVirginia 26:17Wake Forest 33:4326:1733:43
Team totalsVirginiaWake Forest
Total yards330538
Passing32 of 45, 314 yds13 of 21, 229 yds
Rushing19 for 16 yds51 for 309 yds
First downs1828
Third down1 of 129 of 14
Fourth down3 of 71 of 1
Turnovers10
Penalties4 for 42 yds3 for 45 yds
Time of possession26:1733:43

Virginia leaders

  • Passing Beau Pribula 20 of 29, 212 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
  • Rushing Solomon Beebe 3 for 9 yds; Beau Pribula 7 for 7 yds
  • Receiving Dashawn Martin 9 for 119 yds, 1 TD; Jacquon Gibson 4 for 59 yds

Wake Forest leaders

  • Passing Giovanni Lopez 13 of 21, 229 yds, 1 TD
  • Rushing Jamar Searcy 8 for 78 yds, 1 TD; Giovanni Lopez 13 for 64 yds
  • Receiving Carlos Hernandez 8 for 136 yds, 1 TD; Drayden Dickmann 1 for 47 yds

No rain and calm

64° at kickoff · no rain recorded · wind 4 mph from the north-northeast, gusts to 12

October game-day temperatures at Allegacy Federal Credit Union Stadium

Win chance with rain, wind and thunder from the nearest airport, by game timeQ1Q2Q3Q4Wake Forest favoredVirginia favored100%Win chanceWake ForestRaininches per 10 min0.1 inNo rain recordedWindmph, average and gusts20 mph40 mph
Win chance with rain, wind and thunder from the nearest airport, by game timeQ1Q2Q3Q4Wake Forest favoredVirginia favoredRain · inches per 10 min0.1 inNo rain recordedWind · miles per hour2040

Drag along the chart, or step through the game.

First quarter, 14:56 left3:51 p.m.
Virginia 0, Wake Forest 0 · Wake Forest 87% to win
no rain · wind 6 mph from the northeast · 64°
Davis 4-yd run
Where this weather comes fromMeasured at Winston-salem/smith_(asos) airport, 1.8 miles away. Wind and rain are airport readings near the stadium, not on the field. Game times come from the play-by-play, good to a minute or two. Source: National Weather Service, through the Iowa Environmental Mesonet. Field direction from OpenStreetMap contributors.

Before kickoff

Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.

Recent games

Last three games

Virginia · 4-4

Rated 56th in our preseason ratings, 63rd now.

1-2 in its last three — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.

L 16-19 vs Duke No. 52 of 668 teams

lost by 3 as a 2.5-point favorite

Virginia lost 16-19 vs Duke. Chance to win started at 68%, low 9%, high 79%.

L 13-23 @ SMUTop 25 No. 36 of 668 teams

lost by 10 as a 10-point underdog

Virginia lost 13-23 at SMU. Chance to win started at 18%, low under 1%, high 33%.

W 28-25 vs Syracuse No. 105 of 668 teams

won by 3 as a 14-point favorite

Virginia won 28-25 vs Syracuse. Chance to win started at 88%, low 27%, high better than 99%.

L 7-38 @ Florida State No. 59 of 668 teams

lost by 31 as a 1.5-point favorite

Virginia lost 7-38 at Florida State. Chance to win started at 47%, low under 1%, high 77%.

W 42-3 vs Delaware No. 61 of 668 teams

won by 39 as a 19.5-point favorite

Virginia won 42-3 vs Delaware. Chance to win started at 93%, low 92%, high better than 99%.

L 27-38 vs West Virginia No. 137 of 668 teams

lost by 11 as a 10.5-point favorite

Virginia lost 27-38 vs West Virginia. Chance to win started at 82%, low 3%, high 92%.

W 59-3 vs Norfolk State No. 225 of 668 teams

won by 56 as a 47.5-point favorite

Virginia won 59-3 vs Norfolk State. Chance to win started at better than 99%, low 99%, high better than 99%.

W 34-8 vs NC State No. 46 of 668 teams

won by 26 as a 4-point favorite

Virginia won 34-8 vs NC State. Chance to win started at 68%, low 65%, high better than 99%.

Last three games

Wake Forest · 6-1

Rated 81st in our preseason ratings, 24th now, up 57 spots.

Three straight wins — but still hunting a ranked opponent.

W 41-7 @ California No. 113 of 668 teams

won by 34 as a 10-point favorite

Wake Forest won 41-7 at California. Chance to win started at 69%, low 61%, high better than 99%.

W 38-14 @ NC State No. 60 of 668 teams

won by 24 as a 4-point favorite

Wake Forest won 38-14 at NC State. Chance to win started at 57%, low 22%, high better than 99%.

W 57-3 vs Stanford No. 133 of 668 teams

won by 54 as a 14.5-point favorite

Wake Forest won 57-3 vs Stanford. Chance to win started at 88%, low 81%, high better than 99%.

W 30-27 @ LouisvilleTop 25 No. 47 of 668 teams

won by 3 as an 11.5-point underdog

Wake Forest won 30-27 at Louisville. Chance to win started at 17%, low 12%, high 89%.

L 20-33 vs MiamiTop 25 No. 9 of 668 teams

lost by 13 as a 20.5-point underdog

Wake Forest lost 20-33 vs Miami. Chance to win started at 12%, low under 1%, high 15%.

W 38-36 @ Purdue No. 118 of 668 teams

won by 2 as a 2.5-point favorite

Wake Forest won 38-36 at Purdue. Chance to win started at 44%, low 9%, high better than 99%.

W 38-16 vs Akron No. 60 of 668 teams

won by 22 as a 27.5-point favorite

Wake Forest won 38-16 vs Akron. Chance to win started at 97%, low 96%, high better than 99%.

Week by week

Wake Forest

Wk 3: L 20-33 vs Miami▼13MiamiWk 4: W 30-27 at Louisville▲3Louisvil…Wk 5: W 57-3 vs Stanford▲54StanfordWk 6: W 38-14 at NC State▲24NC StateWk 7: W 41-7 at California▲34Californ…
  • Wk 3Lvs Miami20-33
  • Wk 4Wat Louisville30-27
  • Wk 5Wvs Stanford57-3
  • Wk 6Wat NC State38-14
  • Wk 7Wat California41-7

Virginia

Wk 4: W 42-3 vs Delaware▲39DelawareWk 5: L 7-38 at Florida State▼31F. St.Wk 6: W 28-25 vs Syracuse▲3SyracuseWk 7: L 13-23 at SMU▼10SMUWk 8: L 16-19 vs Duke▼3Duke
  • Wk 4Wvs Delaware42-3
  • Wk 5Lat Florida State7-38
  • Wk 6Wvs Syracuse28-25
  • Wk 7Lat SMU13-23
  • Wk 8Lvs Duke16-19

Power rating by week

Wake Forest is rated 5.5 points ahead as of week 8. Our power rating by week; higher is better.

103-3Wk 0Wk 4Wk 8Wake ForestVirginia

Matchups

Biggest mismatch: Virginia’s explosive plays against Wake Forest, 86 points

Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.

  1. Virginia’s explosive plays against Wake Forest’s defense

    86 pointsweakerstronger50th

    Virginia offense, 11th percentile · Wake Forest defense, 97th

  2. Wake Forest’s rushing EPA against Virginia’s defense

    61 pointsweakerstronger50th

    Wake Forest offense, 98th percentile · Virginia defense, 37th

  3. Wake Forest’s EPA/play against Virginia’s defense

    48 pointsweakerstronger50th

    Wake Forest offense, 99th percentile · Virginia defense, 51st

Season profile, all the rows

Season profile

VirginiaWake Forest
EPA/play, offense
Virginia · 46Wake Forest · 99
EPA/play, defense
Virginia · 51Wake Forest · 73
Success rate, offense
Virginia · 53Wake Forest · 86
Success rate, defense
Virginia · 58Wake Forest · 43
Explosive-play rate, offense
Virginia · 11Wake Forest · 79
Explosive-play rate, defense
Virginia · 88Wake Forest · 97
Rush EPA, offense
Virginia · 36Wake Forest · 98
Rush EPA, defense
Virginia · 37Wake Forest · 84
Pass EPA, offense
Virginia · 50Wake Forest · 96
Pass EPA, defense
Virginia · 53Wake Forest · 71

The series

Virginia leads the series 34-18

52 meetings since 1911 · Wake Forest won the last meeting

Wake Forest wonVirginia won1911: Virginia by 231955: Wake Forest by 61956: Virginia by 11957: Virginia by 81959: Wake Forest by 221960: Wake Forest by 81961: Wake Forest by 61962: Virginia by 21964: Wake Forest by 101966: Virginia by 141967: Virginia by 21969: Wake Forest by 21970: Wake Forest by 201972: Virginia by 31973: Virginia by 111974: Virginia by 141975: Wake Forest by 451976: Virginia by 11977: Virginia by 21978: Wake Forest by 141980: Virginia by 31981: Wake Forest by 31982: Virginia by 71983: Wake Forest by 41984: Virginia by 191985: Virginia by 21986: Virginia by 21987: Virginia by 141988: Virginia by 201989: Virginia by 191990: Virginia by 351991: Virginia by 411992: Virginia by 141993: Virginia by 121994: Virginia by 361995: Virginia by 181996: Virginia by 351997: Virginia by 81998: Virginia by 211999: Virginia by 282000: Virginia by 172001: Wake Forest by 42002: Virginia by 42003: Virginia by 32007: Virginia by 12008: Wake Forest by 112012: Wake Forest by 62016: Wake Forest by 72020: Wake Forest by 172021: Wake Forest by 202024: Virginia by 12025: Wake Forest by 719112025
  • 2025Wake Forest 16-9Wake Forest won 16-9 at Virginia. Chance to win started at 26%, low 10%, high 87%.
  • 2024Virginia 31-30Wake Forest lost 30-31 vs Virginia. Chance to win started at 41%, low under 1%, high 85%.
  • 2021Wake Forest 37-17Wake Forest won 37-17 at Virginia. Chance to win started at 46%, low 46%, high better than 99%.
  • 2020Wake Forest 40-23Wake Forest won 40-23 vs Virginia. Chance to win started at 59%, low 24%, high 99%.
  • 2016Wake Forest 27-20

Each line is Wake Forest’s chance to win through that meeting. Wake Forest is 2-1 in the meetings since 2018 that were still close in the fourth quarter. Older meetings have no play by play, so no line.

Line, fans and home field

The betting line, and the fans

Wake Forest fans are feeling it more than most fanbases this week (80th percentile among FBS fanbases), in line with the numbers.

50-50Model 82% · Line 86%Wake Forest fans…Virginia fans · 6thVirginiaWake Forest

Wake Forest favored by 13.5 · Total 48.5

How games like this usually go

Wake Forest by 13.5, and it went to form

50%90%Q1Q2Q3Q450%90%Q1Q2Q3Q4

Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game

The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 448 games since 2025 with a favorite of 7.5 to 14.5 points.

The market

The total fell 1 point.

opened 49.5now 48.5

Total: 49.5 → 48.5

The books’ cut: 4.3%, the margin built into the odds

Home field

Wake Forest is worth +1.5 points (±4.4) more at home than on the road since 2018 — bottom third of FBS, 11th percentile.

55% at home, 53% on the road against FBS opponents (26-21 home, 24-21 away).

Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads -0.9 at home vs. away over 99 games — inside the ±6.3 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.

The visitors travel about 163 miles to get here.

Last meeting in our History pages

Where next

Conference standings

Going into this game: place in the conference, then conference record.

Full ACC standings