Duke 19-16 Virginia (Oct 23, 2026) Final Score

Team pages: Duke · Virginia

Duke5-219

Virginia4-416Final

Fri, Oct 23 · Scott Stadium, Charlottesville, Va. · Crowd 45,138

Duke beat Virginia 19-16.

We had Duke favored. It won.

Next: Duke vs Boston College, Sat Oct 31 · 12:00 PM ET · Duke favored by 7

Next: Virginia at Wake Forest, Sat Oct 31 · 3:45 PM ET · Virginia underdog by 12.5

I’m terrified, have fun neutrals

A Duke fan

How it swung

The turning point: Sheppard 28-yd TD pass to Keefe, Duke goes ahead 19-16 (Q4, 1:14). Duke went from 36% to 71% to win.

Before kickoff, our ratings gave Duke a 52% chance, and the closing betting line (Duke was a 2.5-point underdog) put it at 42%.

Down to 21% in the third quarter, Duke came back to win.

Up to 79% in the third quarter, then Virginia lost it.

Non-QB touchdown pass

Duke · Q4 1:14

FinalDuke 19-16 VirginiaDuke wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.

The two plays that swung it

1Q1 10:59Sheppard 32-yd TD run, Duke goes ahead 7-0Duke 40% → 59% (+19)
2Q4 1:14Sheppard 28-yd TD pass to Keefe, Duke goes ahead 19-16Duke 36% → 71% (+35)

The two plays that swung it

1Q1 10:59Sheppard 32-yd TD run, Duke goes ahead 7-0Virginia 60% → 41% (−19)
2Q4 1:14Sheppard 28-yd TD pass to Keefe, Duke goes ahead 19-16Virginia 64% → 29% (−35)

Masterclass in clock management

Q2 0:07 · A Virginia fan · r/CFB game thread

What fans said, play by play

The line in bold above each quote is written by our model from the thread’s comments and the play-by-play.

Q2 0:07Im a neutral and that clock management pissed me off, Virginia fans gotta be steamedr/CFB game thread
Q4 12:08Fans mock the Virginia punter's brace and criticize the broadcast camerasIs this Virginia punter the best football player of all time?r/CFB game thread
Q4 3:47Officials rule Pribula intentional grounding, sparking debate over the callUhh...that'd be grounding.r/CFB game threadtextbook grounding lolr/CFB game thread

Duke’s chance to win after every play.

How to read this chart

Starts from the pregame line (Virginia -2.5), at 32% for Duke (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores. Outlined diamonds mark rare plays. Under the scores, r/CFB comments per minute from fans with a Virginia or Duke flair (223 and 282); both sides share one scale, regulation only.

Watch the plays

The bar and the arrow show Duke’s chance to win after each play; the logo is the team the play helped.

Every drive

Duke scored on 4 of its 12 drives; Virginia on 4 of its 12.

Duke’s drives are teal, Virginia’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.

From Virginia’s side

Virginia’s best moment: Eget intercepted by Robinson at the UVA24 (Q3 2:26). It lifted Virginia’s win chance by 14 points.

How Virginia fans took it: “Kitchings is awful” r/CFB game thread

When fans got loud

Loud

Fans peaked right at the end.

Jump to the loudest stretch

The jump was loud; the crowd was busy.

Box score

Duke 19, Virginia 16

Duke covered +2.5 by 5.5. The total, 35, stayed under 47.5.

Team totals	Duke	Virginia
Total yards	327	353
Passing	17 of 31, 256 yds	15 of 24, 158 yds
Rushing	19 for 71 yds	53 for 195 yds
First downs	16	22
Third down	2 of 10	5 of 17
Fourth down	0 of 0	2 of 3
Turnovers	1	2
Penalties	4 for 47 yds	3 for 30 yds
Time of possession	21:13	38:47

Duke leaders

Passing Walker Eget 14 of 25, 211 yds, 1 INT
Rushing Nate Sheppard 15 for 55 yds, 1 TD; CJ Campbell 1 for 12 yds
Receiving Jonah Burton 4 for 59 yds; Brody Keefe 3 for 48 yds, 1 TD

Virginia leaders

Passing Beau Pribula 15 of 24, 158 yds, 1 INT
Rushing Jekail Middlebrook 24 for 117 yds, 1 TD; Beau Pribula 21 for 66 yds
Receiving John Rogers 5 for 65 yds; Dakota Twitty 3 for 41 yds

No rain and calm

56° at kickoff · no rain recorded · wind 3 mph from the north, gusts to 6

The usual here around this date is 61°, with about 7 in 10 games between 50° and 75°.

October game-day temperatures at Scott Stadium

Drag along the chart, or step through the game.

Fourth quarter, 1:14 left10:08 p.m.

Duke 19, Virginia 16 · Virginia 29% to win

no rain · wind 3 mph from the north-northwest · 47°

Sheppard 28-yd TD pass to Keefe, Duke goes ahead 19-16

Measured at Charlottesville airport, 8.1 miles away. Wind and rain are airport readings near the stadium, not on the field. Game times come from the play-by-play, good to a minute or two. Source: National Weather Service, through the Iowa Environmental Mesonet. Field direction from OpenStreetMap contributors.

Before kickoff

Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.

Recent games

Last three games

Duke · 4-2

Rated 67th in our preseason ratings, 53rd now, up 14 spots.

1-2 in its last three — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.

L 20-24 vs North Carolina No. 61 of 668 teams

lost by 4 as a 3-point favorite

L 25-28 @ Georgia Tech No. 99 of 668 teams

lost by 3 as a 4.5-point favorite

W 62-7 vs William & Mary No. 221 of 668 teams

won by 55 as a 43.5-point favorite

W 35-7 vs Stanford No. 106 of 668 teams

won by 28 as a 9.5-point favorite

W 31-27 @ Illinois No. 69 of 668 teams

won by 4 as a 6-point underdog

W 17-3 vs Tulane No. 74 of 668 teams

won by 14 as a 9.5-point favorite

Last three games

Virginia · 4-3

Rated 56th in our preseason ratings, 60th now.

1-2 in its last three — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.

L 13-23 @ SMUTop 25 No. 36 of 668 teams

lost by 10 as a 10-point underdog

W 28-25 vs Syracuse No. 105 of 668 teams

won by 3 as a 14-point favorite

L 7-38 @ Florida State No. 59 of 668 teams

lost by 31 as a 1.5-point favorite

W 42-3 vs Delaware No. 61 of 668 teams

won by 39 as a 19.5-point favorite

L 27-38 vs West Virginia No. 137 of 668 teams

lost by 11 as a 10.5-point favorite

W 59-3 vs Norfolk State No. 225 of 668 teams

won by 56 as a 47.5-point favorite

W 34-8 vs NC State No. 46 of 668 teams

won by 26 as a 4-point favorite

Week by week

Virginia

Wk 3Lvs West Virginia27-38
Wk 4Wvs Delaware42-3
Wk 5Lat Florida State7-38
Wk 6Wvs Syracuse28-25
Wk 7Lat SMU13-23

Duke

Wk 2Wat Illinois31-27
Wk 3Wvs Stanford35-7
Wk 4Wvs William & Mary62-7
Wk 6Lat Georgia Tech25-28
Wk 7Lvs North Carolina20-24

Power rating by week

Duke is rated 0.7 points ahead as of week 7. Our power rating by week; higher is better.

Matchups

Biggest mismatch: Virginia’s explosive plays against Duke, 61 points

Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.

Virginia’s explosive plays against Duke’s defense
Virginia offense, 13th percentile · Duke defense, 74th
Virginia’s rushing EPA against Duke’s defense
Virginia offense, 55th percentile · Duke defense, 88th
Virginia’s EPA/play against Duke’s defense
Virginia offense, 52nd percentile · Duke defense, 70th

Season profile, all the rows

Season profile

DukeVirginia

EPA/play, offense

EPA/play, defense

Success rate, offense

Success rate, defense

Explosive-play rate, offense

Explosive-play rate, defense

Rush EPA, offense

Rush EPA, defense

Pass EPA, offense

Pass EPA, defense

The series

Virginia leads the series 40-34

74 meetings since 1890 · Virginia won the last meeting

2025Virginia 34-17
2025 · neutral siteDuke 27-20
2023Virginia 30-27
2022Duke 38-17
2021Virginia 48-0

Each line is Virginia’s chance to win through that meeting. Virginia is 2-2 in the meetings since 2018 that were still close in the fourth quarter.

Line, fans and home field

The betting line, and the fans

Virginia fans are in a better mood than Duke fans (47th percentile vs 7th among FBS fanbases), even with Duke favored.

Virginia favored by 2.5 · Total 47.5

How games like this usually go

Virginia by 2.5: the game against the usual path

Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game

The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 286 games since 2025 with a favorite of under 3.5 points.

The market

The spread moved 4 points toward Duke.

The total fell 6 points.

The books’ cut: 4.2%, the margin built into the odds

Home field

Virginia is worth +5.0 points (±3.3) more at home than on the road since 2018 — middle of FBS, 64th percentile.

60% at home, 34% on the road against FBS opponents (29-19 home, 14-27 away).

Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads +0.0 at home vs. away over 97 games — inside the ±5.7 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.

Night kickoff — historically worth about half a point more to the home side against the number, and not much more than that. The visitors travel about 143 miles to get here.

Last meeting in our History pages

Duke 27, Virginia 20ACC Championship · Dec 6, 2025

Where next

Conference standings

Going into this game: place in the conference, then conference record.

Virginia10th2-2
Duke13th1-2

Full ACC standings

Duke beats Virginia 19-16