CFB Zeitgeist Score
55
Solid starter in the position cohort. Carried by yards / att at the 78th percentile.
Blake Shapen
Below the discourse floor — the honest stats-only state.
2,436 PASS YDS · 15 PASS TD · 26 RUSH YDS
2026 Outlook
Returning to Mississippi State for 2026
2026 Depth chart
Returning starter
Quarterback · Mississippi State
Returning around him
- 42% of 2024 offensive production back (Moderate turnover)
- 2 Mississippi State players drafted to NFL
- Transfer portal: -13 net (27 in / 40 out)
2026 Award watch
No preseason watch lists yet (most drop June 15 – July 15)
Mississippi State · Last season: 5-8 · Talent rank #24 · 2026 recruiting class #28
QB · MISSISSIPPI STATE · SEC
Blake Shapen
- 4
- #2
- 6-1 | 210 lb
- Shreveport, LA
Heisman Heat
#1317
<1% win probability
Fan Belief
Awaiting
Player-specific FI not yet ingested. Falls back to team mood below.
Respect Gap
Awaiting
Coming online with player-level FI.
Reality Gap
Awaiting
Coming online with player-level FI.
ACCOLADE PROBABILITY
Heisman
<1%
TOP QB AWARD
Davey O'Brien
—
CONSENSUS
All-American
—
Player Standing · 17 rungs
Tier 2 · StarterR07 · Impact starter
Impact starter. Producing measurable value above replacement.
Not on team2-deepStarterRecognizedEliteApex
Development Trajectory · passing yards
2021–2025+309%
Up 309% from first season to most-recent.
Career Arc
HS
Recruit
★★★
CFB
College
2 teams
NFL
NFL Draft
—
Identity & Role
The durable bio layer: position, size, hometown, and roster role.
Recruiting Pedigree
How big the prospect was before college, and whether the later career arc beat that expectation.
| Class | Profile | Context |
|---|---|---|
| 2020 | 3-star | 0.8685 | No. 714 recruit | HighSchool |
Transfer Arc
Portal movement changes role, context, and perception. This keeps that path in one place.
| Season | Move | Context |
|---|---|---|
| 2024 | Baylor -> Mississippi State | 3-star | 0.8700 | Immediate |
Heisman Lens · 2024 Season · Final
Where the player landed at the end of the listed season — final nowcast rank, win/finalist/ballot probabilities, and the cleanest official Heisman placement on file.
HIGH CONFIDENCE· through week 16Heisman Futures
Not yet listed on major futures markets.
Achievements
- Program Benchmark 5.5% Program Benchmark Season leader for the program at the player's position across the headline volume metric (passing yards / rushing yards / receiving yards). Held by 5.5% of the 2025 pool. Team leader in passing yards (2436).
Selector Grid · 2025
AP—
FWAA—
AFCA—
WCFF—
SN—
SI—
Selector recognition fills in once the major honors lists (AP, FWAA, AFCA, Walter Camp, Sporting News, SI) are scraped and ingested.
NIL · Recruiting · NFL Draft
Market value, pedigree & pro outcome
Recruit stars
★★★☆☆
to —
Composite
0.8685
#714 national
Today’s Hot-Take
The Hot-Take engine fires when this player’s percentile profile crosses a defensible threshold (top 10% in a cohort, 100+ snap sample). When it’s quiet, the model is honoring its “must be defensible” rule.
Anti-Take
PENDINGThe contrarian read fires when the rules-engine detects a stat that complicates the Hot-Take. Quiet here means the model hasn’t found a defensible counter yet — not that one doesn’t exist.
The Room on Blake Shapen
Fan sentiment ·
Belief Meter
50
Mixed Sentiment
Top Take
“”
Trajectory
Per-cohort trajectory lands when historical bucket data is aggregated.
Cohort divergence map
- Own fans · n=1
Rival Radar
How rival fanbases talk about Blake Shapen
No rival-bucket mentions in the current season.
2025 Signature · 2025 season
WEPA per dropback
+0.380
EPA
P4 + Notre Dame QBs, min 250 dropbacks
National rank #23 of 58
Percentile vs P4 + Notre Dame QBs, min 250 dropbacks 61st
Why it matters
#23 of 58 P4 + Notre Dame QBs by weighted EPA per dropback (min 250 dropbacks) — +0.380 EPA/play.
Vs cohort
This player +0.380 (61th)
MODERATE · n=322 cohort 58
- Also strong
- Combined WEPA per play (pass + rush)#33 / 57
- Total weighted-EPA passing#32 / 58
- Yards per attempt#23 / 72
Signature Moment
Week 4 vs Northern Illinois — 51 ypc
Result W 38-10
The week the volume broke through — put up 51 yds vs Northern Illinois.
Season Pace · Projection
Where the passing totals stand
Through 11g
2,436Pass yards
15Pass TDs
8INT
Per game
221.5Pass yards
1Pass TDs
1INT
Projected (13g)
2,879Pass yards
18Pass TDs
9INT
To hit 3,000-yard season (currently 2,436): needs 282/game over remaining 2.
To hit 4,000-yard season (currently 2,436): needs 782/game over remaining 2.
To hit 25 passing TDs (currently 15): needs 5/game over remaining 2.
To hit 30 passing TDs (currently 15): needs 7.5/game over remaining 2.
To hit 35 passing TDs (currently 15): needs 10/game over remaining 2.
What made this player interesting
The fast read on the thing that makes this player more than a generic stat line.
Blake Shapen's story is about how role and output meet each other. For Mississippi State, the card already shows enough current-season production to explain why he is on the serious-player board, and the next layer is determining whether the profile is just very good or actually distinctive.
2025 Season · Final
Traditional stats first. Advanced context underneath.
Last season
QB season snapshot
2025 season snapshot | final
2025 season snapshot | finalData: CFBD player stats + local Heisman modelPeer context: same position + same level
Player identity What kind of player is this?
30-second read
What kind of player is this?
Steady volume against FBS QB peers. The quickest read is whether the profile wins on volume, efficiency, explosiveness, or rushing value.
2025 Season · Final
2025 season snapshot | final
Passing Efficiency
CMP
195 81st
ATT
304 81st
CMP%
64.1% 62nd
Y/A
8.0 76th
Passing Production
YDS
2,436 82nd
TD
15 83rd
INT
8 17th
Rushing
CAR
112 90th
YDS
26 44th
YPC
0.2 19th
TD
3 77th
Game Log · Week-by-week
2025 season · 11 games
| Wk | Opp | CMP/ATT | YDS | TD | INT | YPA | QBR | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | W 34-17@ Southern Miss | 26/34 | 270 | 1 | 1 | 7.9 | 57.6 | |
| Wk 2 | W 24-20vs Arizona State | 19/33 | 279 | 3 | 0 | 8.5 | 42.0 | 3 TD passes |
| Wk 3 | W 63-0vs Alcorn State | 10/14 | 173 | 2 | 1 | 12.4 | 79.6 | |
| Wk 4 | W 38-10vs Northern Illinois | 12/20 | 160 | 1 | 0 | 8.0 | 72.0 | |
| Wk 5 | L 34-41vs Tennessee | 18/29 | 180 | 1 | 1 | 6.2 | 22.9 | |
| Wk 6 | L 9-31@ Texas A&M | 15/20 | 142 | 1 | 1 | 7.1 | 51.2 | |
| Wk 8 | L 21-23@ Florida | 24/36 | 324 | 0 | 1 | 9.0 | 73.8 | |
| Wk 9 | L 38-45vs Texas | 26/42 | 381 | 4 | 0 | 9.1 | 67.4 | Season-high 381 yds |
| Wk 10 | W 38-35@ Arkansas | 16/28 | 242 | 2 | 1 | 8.6 | 72.2 | |
| Wk 11 | L 21-41vs Georgia | 10/15 | 86 | 0 | 0 | 5.7 | 46.4 | |
| Wk 12 | L 27-49@ Missouri | 19/33 | 199 | 0 | 2 | 6.0 | 36.2 | |
| Total | 195/304 | 2436 | 15 | 8 | 8.0 | 56.5 |
Season-by-season tables Career rows + per-season box score
Traditional history
Traditional Stats
Season rows up top, career context at the bottom.
Season context · Team result + system
2021Baylor11-2HC: Dave Aranda · Run-heavy
2022Baylor6-7HC: Dave Aranda · Run-leaning
2023Baylor3-9HC: Dave Aranda · Balanced
2025Mississippi State5-8HC: Jeff Lebby · Run-leaning
| Season | Team | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Mississippi State | 195 | 304 | 64.1% | 2,436 | 8.0 | 15 | 8 | 142.5 | -- | -- |
| 2023 | Baylor | 184 | 298 | 61.7% | 2,188 | 7.3 | 13 | 3 | 135.8 | -- | -- |
| 2022 | Baylor | 233 | 368 | 63.3% | 2,790 | 7.6 | 18 | 10 | 137.7 | -- | -- |
| 2021 | Baylor | 62 | 86 | 72.1% | 596 | 6.9 | 5 | 0 | 149.5 | -- | -- |
| Career | 4 loaded seasons | 674 | 1,056 | 63.8% | 8,010 | 7.6 | 51 | 21 | 139.5 | -- | -- |
| Season | Team | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Mississippi State | 112 | 26 | 0.2 | 3 | -- |
| 2023 | Baylor | 67 | 29 | 0.4 | 4 | -- |
| 2022 | Baylor | 76 | 96 | 1.3 | 2 | -- |
| 2021 | Baylor | 21 | 59 | 2.8 | 0 | -- |
| Career | 4 loaded seasons | 276 | 210 | 0.8 | 9 | -- |
Advanced layer Usage, value, and context
Advanced metrics second
Advanced Metrics
Usage, value, and opponent-adjusted context.
Opponent-adjusted passing value. Positive numbers mean the quarterback is adding more value through the air than a neutral peer would in the same environment.
How much of the offense runs through the quarterback once passing and rushing responsibility are blended together.
Every percentile is compared against players at the same position and level, so an FBS quarterback is judged against FBS quarterbacks, not the whole sport.
The top tables stick to the stats fans already know from broadcasts and box scores. Advanced context is pushed underneath instead of replacing the basics.
Open full stat explorer
| Group | Metric | Value | Rank | Pct | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Passing | Passing yards | 2,436 | #68/382 | 82nd pct | Volumevs FBS QB |
| Passing | Pass TD | 15 | #71/407 | 83rd pct | Scoringvs FBS QB |
| Passing | Completions | 195 | #74/383 | 81st pct | Volumevs FBS QB |
| Passing | Completion % | 64.1% | #147/383 | 62nd pct | Efficiencyvs FBS QB |
| Passing | Yards / attempt | 8.0 | #92/382 | 76th pct | Efficiencyvs FBS QB |
| Rushing | Rushing yards | 26 | #230/408 | 44th pct | Volumevs FBS QB |
| Value | Passing WEPA | +0.38 | #31/200 | 85th pct | Opponent-adjusted passing value | 322 weighted playsvs FBS QB |
| Usage | Role share | 44.0% | #127/428 | 71st pct | Share of team offensevs FBS QB |
| Passing | Attempts | 304 | #80/407 | 81st pct | Volumevs FBS QB |
| Passing | Interceptions | 8 | #339/407 | 17th pct | Turnoversvs FBS QB |
| Rushing | Carries | 112 | #42/408 | 90th pct | Volumevs FBS QB |
| Rushing | Rushing LONG | 24 | #145/391 | 63rd pct | Metricvs FBS QB |
| Rushing | Rush TD | 3 | #94/408 | 77th pct | Scoringvs FBS QB |
| Rushing | Yards / carry | 0.2 | #331/407 | 19th pct | Efficiencyvs FBS QB |
| Usage | Pass share | 77.9% | #122/428 | 72nd pct | Air-game usagevs FBS QB |
| Usage | Passing-down usage | 59.8% | #110/428 | 75th pct | Known-passing sharevs FBS QB |
| Usage | 3rd-down usage | 55.9% | #123/428 | 71st pct | Money-down loadvs FBS QB |
| Usage | 2nd-down usage | 43.2% | #125/428 | 71st pct | Middle-down loadvs FBS QB |
| Usage | 1st-down usage | 39.4% | #110/428 | 75th pct | Early-down loadvs FBS QB |
| Usage | Standard-down usage | 36.3% | #132/428 | 69th pct | Base-situation sharevs FBS QB |
| Usage | Rush share | 15.7% | #96/428 | 78th pct | Ground-game usagevs FBS QB |
| Value | Rushing WEPA | +0.05 | #137/140 | 3rd pct | Opponent-adjusted rushing value | 76 weighted playsvs FBS QB |
| Ball Security | Fumbles lost | 3 | #213/258 | 18th pct | Turnoversvs FBS QB |
Player Standing
Universal 17-step ladder. Tier pills below; accolade streams nested.
AWAITING CLASSIFICATION
On-team2-deepStartingRecognizedEliteApex
AWAITING CLASSIFICATION · Rung None of 16
Why he’s here
Standing classification populates when honors, Heisman, and roster signals all align.
What moves him up
What moves him down
Accolade streams
Status—Awaiting tracker
Heisman model tracks the top FBS contenders weekly; this player hasn't entered the watch list yet.
Splits · Per-game
2025 season · 11 games
Home vs Road
| YDS/g | TD/g | YPA | INT/g | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home6g | 210 | 1.8 | 8.3 | 0.3 |
| Road5g | 235 | 0.8 | 7.7 | 1.2 |
Win vs Loss
| YDS/g | TD/g | YPA | INT/g | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wins5g | 225 | 1.8 | 9.1 | 0.6 |
| Losses6g | 219 | 1.0 | 7.2 | 0.8 |
First half vs Second half
| YDS/g | TD/g | YPA | INT/g | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Weeks 1-76g | 201 | 1.5 | 8.3 | 0.7 |
| Weeks 8+5g | 246 | 1.2 | 7.7 | 0.8 |
Pocket and defense-quality (clean vs. pressure) splits are coming soon.
Savant · Box-rate percentiles
Where this profile ranks vs the QB cohort
55Solid starter
Concern: fumbles lost (18th).
Percentiles versus same-position peers with enough snaps this season, based on box-score rates.
Pass Profile · Completion depth (PBP)
Where the throws are landing
Short
0–9 yds59%of completions
68 comp5.2 yds avg2 TD
Middle
10–19 yds28%of completions
32 comp13.1 yds avg
Deep
20+ yds14%of completions
16 comp45.3 yds avg6 TD
Overall 64.8% completion on 179 attempts · 16 deep completions averaging 45.3 yds.
Advanced Savant · QB · 2024
Percentile Card
Elite: EPA / dropback.
P4G5All FBS
Advanced Savant
Opponent-adjusted advanced metrics with a cohort filter.
wepa_passing0.38Mid (p50–p75) (n=94)
wepa_rushing0.05Below (<p25) (n=72)
Peer Comparator · Fingerprint match
Three closest profiles by box-rate percentile
Blake ShapenMississippi StateAthan KaliakmanisRutgers· 85% simJoey AguilarTennessee· 81% simKevin JenningsSMU· 80% sim
Yards / att
Pass yards
Completion %
Pass TDs
Rush TDs
Interceptions
Rush yards
Fumbles lost
Closest peers by overall box-score percentile profile at the same position.
Player DNA
The Pocket Passer
Balanced passer who operates within the system. Profile sits near league average across dimensions.
QB
His 2025 production profile sits closest to Blake Shapen’s 2022 season.
Blake Shapen
78%match
#2
Rocco Becht
77%
#3
Tanner Morgan
71%
#4
Davis Brin
67%
#5
Skylar John Thompson
67%
Matches Blake on
Yards / attempt
Rush yards / carry
Differs from Blake on
Rush usage (higher)
Class year (higher)
EPA / dropback (adj) (higher)
Through 5 college seasons, his career arc tracks closest to Brady Cook’s path through Missouri.
Brady Cook
88%match
#2
Jack Abraham
All-Conference USA
84%
#3
Cameron Ward
All-ACC
84%
#4
Ian Book
All-ACCNFL Rd 4
84%
#5
Jordan McCloud
All-Sun Belt
83%
Matches Brady on
Completion %
Yards per attempt
Height
As a graduate, his production profile tracks closest to Zevi Eckhaus's graduate season at Washington State (2025).
Zevi Eckhaus
52%match
#2
Payton Thorne
52%
#3
Braylon Braxton
All-Sun Belt
52%
#4
Grayson James
All-ACC
50%
#5
Kaidon Salter
All-Conference USA
50%
Matches Zevi on
Total pass EPA (college ability)
Height
Differs from Zevi on
INT rate (lower)
Rush yards / carry (lower)
Yards / attempt (higher)
Supporting Cast · Scheme
Staff and system around the player
Head Coach
Jeff Lebby
Pass share
41.8%
390 pass / 543 run
Plays / game
71.8
13 games
OL sack rate (allowed)
12.7%
308 dropbacks · PBP
Scheme: Run-leaning.
Coaching Lineage · 2021–2025
3 coaches2021
Mike Leach
Mississippi State
2022
Mike Leach
Mississippi State
2023era →
Greg Knox
Mississippi State
2025era →
Jeff Lebby
Mississippi State
Played under 3 different head coaches: Mike Leach, Greg Knox, and Jeff Lebby. Multi-era developmental context.
Bio · Recruiting · Transfer · Roster
Off-field context — switch tabs to drill into recruit profile, transfer arc, or roster timeline.
HometownShreveport, LA
Height6'1"
Weight210 lb
Class4
PositionQB
Jersey2
No fields populated yet.
No fields populated yet.
Current teamMississippi State
ConferenceSEC
Joined2025
Career arc5 season(s)
Trophy Case · Detail
Every honor on the ledger, broken out by stream and selector.
No formal honors on the ledger yet
All-America, all-conference, player-of-the-week, watch-list, and postseason awards land here when they're earned. The absence is the signal: most players never collect formal honors, and that's its own kind of context.
Honors Timeline
Season-end distinction and week-by-week recognition on one timeline.
| Season | Honor | Scope | Team / Selector | Context |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| No formal honors on the ledger yet. All-America, all-conference, weekly awards, watch lists, and postseason trophies land here when they’re earned. | ||||
Heisman By Year
Modeled rank and official finish by season.
| Season | Team | Role | Latest Model | Forecast | Win | Finalist | Official Finish | Points | Context |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | Mississippi State | QB4 | #1317 | #1674 | 0.0% | 0.0% | -- | -- | W16 snapshot | SEC |
| 2023 | Baylor | QB4 | #249 | #436 | 0.0% | 0.0% | -- | -- | W19 snapshot | Big 12 |
| 2022 | Baylor | QB4 | #105 | #151 | 0.0% | 0.0% | -- | -- | W20 snapshot | Big 12 |
| 2021 | Baylor | QB4 | #85 | #57 | 0.0% | 0.0% | -- | -- | W20 snapshot | Big 12 |
Roster Timeline
Team, conference, and class by season.
| Season | Team | Conference | Pos | Class | Bio |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Mississippi State | SEC | QB | 4 | No. 2 | 6-1 | 210 lb | Shreveport, LA |
| 2024 | Mississippi State | SEC | QB | 4 | No. 2 | 6-1 | 210 lb | Shreveport, LA |
| 2023 | Baylor | Big 12 | QB | 4 | No. 2 | 6-1 | 210 lb | Shreveport, LA |
| 2022 | Baylor | Big 12 | QB | 4 | No. 2 | 6-1 | 210 lb | Shreveport, LA |
| 2021 | Baylor | Big 12 | QB | 4 | No. 2 | 6-1 | 210 lb | Shreveport, LA |