job securityOne fan's take
One fan believes the head coach's job is at risk
Lebbys job is kind of on the line today. Needs another P4 win to inspire confidence
Based on 1 comment from 1 poster across 1 thread · Sep 12, 2026 · via CFB
The Zeitgeist List · coaching
Jeff Lebby
Followed Greg Knox. Jeff Lebby slid Mississippi State from National Program I to National Program II in 3 seasons.
7–18
2024–now · 1 stint
← all coachesIn his own words
I’ve talked a ton about being the aggressor, being able to affect the quarterback, creating negative plays. He’s done that
(I) didn’t enjoy going against him. He made it really, really hard. And that, for me, was just another great stamp and a check-the-box situation where I knew what I was getting
I think the closest comparison, honestly, is RGIII. The athleticism, the ability to throw the football down the field, the arm talent
Career arc
His real stature score, season by season, across every program he’s coached — so a stretch that stays in one tier the whole way can still climb or sink on the line, not just flatten out. Node color marks the tier reached. Which program a stretch belongs to is carried by the shaded lane behind it.
Reached National Program in his 1st career season — faster than 41% of the 675 FBS coaches who have ever reached National Program (rank #1 of 675 by seasons-to-arrival).
Mississippi State, 3 seasons (active)
−7.7
National Program II → National Program II.
Style position and drift
Where each stint’s offense sat between run-first and pass-first, and how far it moved from one season to the next. The band is that stint’s real season-to-season range, not a fixed-width box.
Pass rate — share of offensive plays that were pass attemptsfirst covered seasonmost recent covered seasonfull season-to-season range (3+ covered seasons)
How much that is, against every other stint
Season-to-season pass-rate range for all 258 FBS coaching stints with at least three covered seasons, 2014–2025.
Typical stint7.010.2 median13.9middle half of all stints
Mississippi State5.3pt#224 of 258 · less than most
The big-game ledger
How he does in the games that matter most — rivalry record, performance broken out by real opponent tier, one-score games, and his toughest historical matchup.
0–1 against his rivals.
Rivalry record
0–1
0.0% · 1 rival
One-score games
1–3
25.0% · margin ≤8
vs. Blue Blood or better
0–2
0.0%
Buyout owed
$11,006,250 (est.)
bigger than 56% of FBS buyouts
Rivalry ledger
Ole Miss0–10%
Performance by opponent class
Blue Blood0–2 0.0%
Power Program0–10 0.0%
National Program2–4 33.3%
Regional Program2–0 100.0%
His own effect, isolated
A statistical estimate of this coach’s contribution to team performance, separated from that season’s roster talent, returning production, and his coordinators — pooled across his whole head-coaching career.
Defense marginal impact
-0.31
#293 of 325 · less than most
Model fit as of 2026-09-04.
What fans are saying
Fan claims · every quote verified verbatim
Coaching career
2024–now
Mississippi Statecaretaker
National Program I → National Program II
Jeff Lebby slid Mississippi State from National Program I to National Program II in 3 seasons.
12th-best Mississippi State tenure of 20 by the numbers.
Recruiter or developer?
Underperforms his recruiting talent, on both sides of the ball.
Offense vs. talent
-19.0 pts
#174 of 208 · less than most
Defense vs. talent
-46.7 pts
#209 of 208 · less than most
Recruiting talent is team-wide (no offense/defense split exists in the source data) -- both sides are scored against the same talent input, only the outcome is side-specific.
Followed Greg Knox (2017–2023).
| Season | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Record & result | ||||
| Record | 2–10 | 5–8 | 0–0 | |
| Postseason | — | L bowl | — | |
| Recruiting rank | #28 | #28 | #23 | |
| Style — pass rate | ||||
| Pass rate | 46.8 | 41.5 | 43.5 | |
| Coordinators | ||||
| OC | — | — | — | |
| DC | Coleman Hutzler / Matt Barnes | Coleman Hutzler / Matt Barnes | Zach Arnett | |
| Outcome — opponent-adjusted efficiency percentile | ||||
| Offense | 43 | 37 | 92 | |
| Defense | 10 | 14 | 52 | |
| Tendencies — play-by-play, neutral script (2021+ only) | ||||
| 1st-down pass% | 46.1 | 40.4 | 61.2 | |
| Red-zone pass% | 33.0 | 33.6 | 61.5 | |
| 4th-down go%opp. territory | 60.0 | 39.4 | — | |
Roster construction · portal era
A portal-built roster.
Portal arrivals
78
3.1★ avg rating
Portal departures
102
left via the portal
Net portal flow
-24
#19 of 187 FBS stints
Who they bring in
Brings in bigger-than-position-typical players than most.
Recruits younger transfers than most — more of a development bet.
Avg. size (raw)
6′3″, 251 lbs
across 67 of 78 arrivals — unadjusted for position mix
Size vs. position-typical
+11.2 lbs
#2 of 255 · more than most
Avg. class year
Jr
#234 of 255 · less than most
Top states: TX (12), FL (10), MS (8), GA (7), OH (5)
Who won the portal our read
Talent added
60.0
position-weighted
Talent lost
60.1
position-weighted
Net
-0.1
arrivals minus departures
Best addition: Luke Kromenhoek (QB) from Florida State
Biggest loss: Will Rogers (QB) to Washington
Position-value-weighted (QB/CB weighted highest, depth-decayed within each position) — the same scoring engine as the Portal Heat feed, not a separate grade.
Does the system survive a coordinator change?
DC: Coleman Hutzler / co-Matt Barnes → Zach Arnett · 2026
1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.
Roster size, by position
Skill positions · usage-weighted (real participation)
Quarterback
209 lbs
6′1″ avg · #512 of 767 · a typical amount
Running back
210 lbs
5′10″ avg · #284 of 791 · a typical amount
Wide receiver
185 lbs
6′0″ avg · #714 of 791 · less than most
Tight end
242 lbs
6′4″ avg · #500 of 731 · a typical amount
Trench & secondary · recruited roster, not confirmed starters
Interior line
323 lbs
6′5″ avg · #30 of 779 · more than most
D-line
300 lbs
6′3″ avg · #91 of 753 · more than most
Linebacker
234 lbs
6′3″ avg · #127 of 772 · more than most
Cornerback
188 lbs
6′1″ avg · #489 of 771 · a typical amount
Safety
202 lbs
6′1″ avg · #67 of 346 · more than most
Offensive-line size is one undifferentiated bucket — the source data almost never distinguishes tackle from guard from center, so we can't split them out.
Where the roster comes from, by position
Buys Interior line via the portal
82%
#9 of 224 stints
Buys Linebacker via the portal
62%
#38 of 225 stints
Postseason detail2025: Lost to Wake Forest 29–43 Duke's Mayo Bowl
5 NFL Draft picks: Decamerion Richardson (2024), Jaden Crumedy (2024), Nathaniel Watson (2024), Brenen Thompson (2026), Seydou Traore (2026)
1 player-season honored (All-America / national award): Kelley Jones (2026)
7–18
The Zeitgeist List · coordinating
Jeff Lebby
Offensive coordinator across 3 programs, 3 stints, before and after wearing the head-coach hat — every season measured on the same axis, whether he personally ran the unit or someone else did.