4-4, lost 4 straight, on track for 6-6 in the regular season.
Bowls and playoffs: 0-1
2025Duke's Mayo BowlL 29-43
vs. Vanderbilt, Sat Nov 7, 4:15 pm ET 
· Vanderbilt is 3-5 · First meeting between Lebby and Clark Lea as head coaches · Mississippi State’s chance to win: 57% (the site’s model)
23% chance he’s out after the season · 17th of 132 FBS head coaches · Hot
If he finishes…
Bar: how likely that finish isNumber: his chance of being out
Our hot-seat model, on his record so far, the win chances for every game he has left, and his contract (a bigger buyout, relative to pay, makes a change costlier). Ranked against the 132 FBS head coaches with 3+ games this season.
Now right where 2025 was at this point.
The chance he’s out by the end of that season, as it stood after every week of his tenure here, by today’s model.
Hottest: 2026, week 9 (23%, 18th-hottest of 137 FBS jobs that week). Top factor: ▲ Hotter 7-18 over his previous two seasons here
Earlier seasons price the games left with power ratings rebuilt after those seasons ended.
The biggest factors, each against the typical FBS job today.
A different comparison: past coaches, not today’s, grouped by one fact at a time. Neither line knows the games he has left or his contract, so they can sit above or below his chance.
How good is this number? Checked on every FBS coach from 2010 to 2025, with its percentages calibrated each season on earlier years only: they track what happened — coaches it put near 25% were out about a quarter of the time — and a version pricing the games left with the previous season’s ratings ranked jobs as well as the ranking this page used before. Each week it learns from coaches who were still on the job at that point, so a firing during the season counts. In the Boiling zone it has run a few points high. Every job, and the method.
SuperTalk Mississippi MediaThunder & Lightning: It Doesn’t Matter to Mississippi State Fans What Jeff Lebby SaysMon Nov 2
The Clarion-LedgerMississippi State football injury list unlike anything Jeff Lebby has seen in his careerSun Nov 1I mean, if Mississippi State is anything to judge by, a bad team still gets stuck at 12 PM Eastern for most games.
For the second year in a row, Mississippi State starts 4-0 then loses 4 straight.
This game was terrible 3-31 that’s so messed up Mississippi State lost 4 games this season they to tighten up and get their heads in the game
Fan mood · last 3 weeks · more negative than 3 in 4 FBS fan bases
57%
7%Percent: Mississippi State’s chance to win, from the site’s model. Records are through today. Networks as announced; the rest are set closer to kickoff.
Where Mississippi State stood among 138 FBS programs by stature after each game (1st is the highest; the CFB Zeitgeist ledger).
USA Today
Sports Illustrated
On3
ESPNOn3Each week as this page showed it at the time. Weeks marked rebuilt came before this page existed: they were built afterward from only what was known by the end of that week.
Watch the biggest plays from Mississippi State’s games, ranked by how much each moved the chance to win.
If we trail at any point to Vandy, the students are starting a "Fire Lebby" chant. And I'll be with them.Mississippi State fan
Fire Jeff Lebby into the sun.Mississippi State fan
This game has shown me that Jeff Lebby’s seat is still incredibly warm this season.Mississippi State fan
So anyway Jeff Lebby better be fired at the end of this season.Mississippi State fan
Also maybe we can finally fire Lebby once this team falls off a cliff.Mississippi State fan
Jeff Lebby, please enjoy being the latest fired college football coach!Mississippi State fan
It’s a crime Lebby gave Hutzler the job for two yearsMississippi State fan
Yes sirrr. Lebby has brought in elite receivers again. It’ll be nice to not rely on Evans onlyMississippi State fan
Sat Nov 7: Vanderbilt
71st of 104 FBS head coaches · from a few outlets and r/CFB
Monday Q and A with Jeff Lebby
247Sports Nov 2 · one outlet
Roster talk is up: several stories in the last two weeks, from a few stories the two weeks before.
The headlines for each topic are on the News tab.
from dozens of outlets and r/CFB
Will Miles McVay play in Mississippi State opener after arrest? What Jeff Lebby said
Hattiesburg American +2 Aug 31 · a few outlets
Reported by Hattiesburg American and The Clarion-LedgerThe headlines for each topic are on the News tab.
Is he on the hot seat? What has he said?
Stories are headlines grouped by what they are about, counted through Nov 4.
How he does in the games that matter most — rivalry record, performance broken out by real opponent tier, one-score games, and his toughest historical matchup.
0-2 against his rivals. Winless in 3 tries against Lane Kiffin.
ATS is his record against the spread: did his team beat the closing betting line, winning by more than it or losing by less? Lines start in 2013; a dash means fewer than 6 of those games had one. One-score games carry no spread record: a big favorite that wins a close game has almost always failed to cover, so that number would say nothing about the coach.
Tags describe each game; they aren’t scores. The weighting that picks these games is still being tested.
Called about what the situation called for.
1,674 run and pass snaps at Mississippi State, 2024–2025, his own games, one row per offensive coordinator. Each cell is how much more often he passed than the rest of FBS did in the same situation (field zone, down, distance, score, quarter, same season), in percentage points.
Where each stint’s offense sat between run-first and pass-first, and how far it moved from one season to the next, against the FBS-wide average of 41% pass. The band is that stint’s real season-to-season range, not a fixed-width box.
Season-to-season pass-rate range for all 449 FBS coaching stints with at least three covered seasons, 2004–2025.
Five numbers on how he actually stocks a roster, from signing day to draft day.
His 3 ranked Mississippi State classes of his own have averaged #26 nationally — best #23, worst #28.
His class — he had the full signing cycle
Rank is each signing class’s national recruiting rank (#1 is best). Only a class he had a full signing cycle to build counts as his.
of his 2026 roster arrived on his watch — 105 of 116 players. The other 11 are holdovers from before he was hired.
Of his own players on this roster, 30% came through the transfer portal; the rest are non-portal arrivals (high-school signees, JUCO transfers, walk-ons).
35% of his 190 new players since 2024 came through the portal (FBS programs, same seasons: 29%). His share was 29% in 2024 and 36% in 2026.
Graded on the players who arrived and the players who left together, his portal seasons came out about typical for FBS in all 3 seasons graded. our read
Each player counts once, in the season he arrived. 2021, the first season of portal tracking here, is left off because its arrival records look incomplete (about 31 new players per FBS team, against 52 in 2022). Portal grade: the site’s position-value-weighted scoring (the same engine as the Portal Heat feed and the “Who won the portal” grade): the value of the players who came in minus the value of the ones who left, ranked against every FBS program’s grade that same season. A season with fewer than 4 transfers in and out is not graded.
“His own” means the player arrived while he was head coach; “inherited” means a predecessor brought him in.
Offensive linemen on his Mississippi State rosters have averaged 14 lb heavier than the FBS average (2024–2026) — heavier than 99% of FBS coaching runs since 2010. In the three seasons before he arrived, Mississippi State’s line averaged 3 lb heavier than the FBS average.
Average listed weight of every offensive lineman on each season’s roster, holdovers included, against every FBS roster that season (2010 on; a program needs 3+ seasons under him to appear). Weights are the ones programs publish, and programs list differently. This describes size only — not scheme, and not quality.
is his biggest recruiting state: 34 of 89 signees (38%) across his 2024–2026 tenure, drawn from 10 states in all. Next: AL (15).
72% of his signees come from MS and its 4 border states (AL 15, TN 8, LA 7).
Off this map: 5 signees to the west (CA 2, TX 2, others), 3 to the east (FL 3) and 1 to the north (MD).
The map counts signed recruits across his tenure; the distance figures cover his current roster, transfers and walk-ons included. Two different groups, kept separate on purpose.
players drafted into the NFL off his teams here. He brought in 1 of them himself; 1 arrived under Zach Arnett.
| Year | Pick | Player | Pos | NFL team | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R4.05 | Brenen Thompson | Wide Receiver |  Los Angeles Chargers | |
| 2026 | R5.40 | Seydou Traore | Tight End |  Miami Dolphins | recruited under Zach Arnett |
A pick counts toward his tenure when the player’s final college season was one he coached, a checkable rule rather than a claim about who developed the player. A blank note means the player is on a verified roster and arrived on his watch. “Estimated” means no roster record, so the final season is assumed to be the year before the draft.
Headlines, grouped by what they are about. Each is the outlet’s own.
Injuries
Press conference and quotes
AZ Family +14Mississippi State head football coach Jeff Lebby postgame presser - AlabamaOct 3247SportsCoach Philip Montgomery happy to reunite with Lebby at Mississippi StateAug 3
Yahoo SportsJeff Lebby talks frustration from Mississippi State football's loss vs FloridaAug 6Mississippi State AthleticsFOOTBALL | Jeff Lebby media session - 8/6/26 - Mississippi StateAug 6Quarterback and depth chart
Sports Illustrated +1Jeff Lebby Explains How Mississippi State Will Decide Its Quarterback BattleOct 27The Clarion-LedgerJeff Lebby updates Mississippi State football's battle for backup QB behind Kamario Taylor - The Clarion-LedgerAug 16The Clarion-LedgerJeff Lebby gives update on Mississippi State football No. 2 QB battle - The Clarion-LedgerAug 16The Clarion-LedgerKamario Taylor's mom on Mississippi State QB's relationship with coach Jeff Lebby - The Clarion-LedgerAug 24The Clarion-LedgerJeff Lebby explains why Mississippi State QB Kamario Taylor's 70-yard TD went viral - The Clarion-LedgerSep 7Game preview
The Oklahoman +1OU football faces Jeff Lebby, only OC hire Brent Venables got right | Mussatto's MinutesOct 21
Locked OnPaul Finebaum’s bold Pick for Mississippi State Bulldogs | Will Jeff Lebby defy Odds?Aug 21
WTVALebby: Mississippi State prepares for first game on the roadSep 7
WLBTJeff Lebby previews 2-0 Mississippi State’s SEC opener on the road at South CarolinaSep 14On3Mississippi State's Jeff Lebby prepares to face his brother-in-law: South Carolina OC Kendal BrilesSep 15Injuries
The Clarion-Ledger +1Jeff Lebby gives Kamario Taylor injury update for Mississippi State vs OklahomaOct 19The Clarion-LedgerJeff Lebby announces Mississippi State DL Trevion Williams is out for the season - The Clarion-LedgerSep 21The Clarion-LedgerWas Kamario Taylor injured before Mississippi State vs Alabama? What Jeff Lebby revealed - The Clarion-LedgerOct 3Sports IllustratedJeff Lebby Explains How Kamario Taylor’s Injury Changed Mississippi StateOct 3The Clarion-LedgerWhat Jeff Lebby said about Kamario Taylor's injury status for Mississippi State vs LSU - The Clarion-LedgerOct 7Loss
WLBTMississippi State opens fall camp in year 3 under Jeff Lebby with overhauled rosterAug 7Locked OnJeff Lebby Sends massive Message About Mississippi StateAug 12247SportsSaturday Q and A with Jeff Lebby following Alabama lossOct 3247SportsSaturday Q and A with Jeff Lebby following LSU lossOct 17On3Lebby, Mississippi State teammates back "Billy" Puckett after loss against LSUOct 19Transfer portal
The Clarion-LedgerJeff Lebby updates Jahron Manning, Malick Sylla eligibility status at Mississippi State - The Clarion-LedgerAug 11The Clarion-LedgerJeff Lebby talks about West Virginia transfer Eddie Kelly Jr. joining Mississippi State - The Clarion-LedgerAug 31On3Jeff Lebby's recruiting pitch is playing out in real time, and top targets are taking noticeSep 25The Clarion-LedgerKamario Taylor, Jeff Lebby address Mississippi State QB transfer speculation - The Clarion-LedgerSep 27Nobody wants to be on that field more than Kamario. I know how much this team means to him, and how much he means to this team. We'll be right there with him throughout his recovery
On his scramble, when he took off, he felt it a little bit
I think there was a lot of good
I think he played his butt off and did some great things
We’ve got depth in that room and there’s going to be great competition
(I) didn’t enjoy going against him. He made it really, really hard. And that, for me, was just another great stamp and a check-the-box situation where I knew what I was getting
I’ve talked a ton about being the aggressor, being able to affect the quarterback, creating negative plays. He’s done that
I think the closest comparison, honestly, is RGIII. The athleticism, the ability to throw the football down the field, the arm talent
Hired into programs rated 39 to 40 (National Program I tier). Rough match, not calibrated yet — ranked on what the job inherited alone. Coaches hired into this same job aren’t used as comps.
The arc of his career is on Now.
Steady no large move in either direction on our stature ladder
12th-best Mississippi State tenure of 20 by the numbers.
Followed Zach Arnett (2022–2023).
| Season | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Record & result | ||||
| Record | 2-10 | 5-8 | 4-4 | |
| Postseason | — | L bowl | — | |
| Coordinators | ||||
| OC | — | — | — | |
| DC | Coleman Hutzler / Matt Barnes | Coleman Hutzler / Matt Barnes | Zach Arnett | |
| Outcome — opponent-adjusted efficiency percentile | ||||
| Offense | 43 | 37 | 27 | |
| Defense | 10 | 14 | 19 | |
| Tendencies — play-by-play, neutral script | ||||
| 1st-down pass% | 46.1 | 40.4 | 51.3 | |
| Red-zone pass% | 33.0 | 33.6 | 57.6 | |
| 4th-down go%opp. territory | 60.0 | 39.4 | 40.9 | |
Underperforms his recruiting talent, on both sides of the ball.
Brings in bigger-than-position-typical players than most.
Recruits younger transfers than most — more of a development bet.
The data leans negative: every conclusive reading points the same way.
-7.7 pts at Mississippi State · #1133 of 1290 · bottom quarterModel fit as of 2026-09-04.
Offensive coordinator across 3 programs, 3 stints, before and after wearing the head-coach hat — every season measured on the same axis, whether he personally ran the unit or someone else did.
How to read this. Coordinator seasons come from our coordinator career records; head-coaching-era seasons are the same unit's FBS-relative percentile for those years, regardless of who coached it, read directly from the staff assignments record. A role change (a “hinge”) is a fact, never a performance verdict — only the season-by-season data itself is colored by outcome.
