Blake Shapen

#2 · QB · Sr. · Mississippi State6′1″ · 210 lb · Shreveport, LA · Evangel Christian Academy

Blake Shapen is a quarterback who has not played this season; the last season with a stat line was 2025, at Mississippi State.

Shapen pushes it downfield on every look. The five seasons span two programs and two head coaches: Dave Aranda and Jeff Lebby. A game that shows it: 381 passing yards and 4 passing TD against Texas — Week 9, 2025.

Where to follow

Career stats

Swipe the table sideways for more columns.

Season	Team
2025	Mississippi State	195	304	64.1%	2,436	8.0	15	8	142.5	58
2024	Mississippi State	74	108	68.5%	974	9.0	8	1	166.9	58
2023	Baylor	184	298	61.7%	2,188	7.3	13	3	135.8	39
2022	Baylor	233	368	63.3%	2,790	7.6	18	10	137.7	47
2021	Baylor	62	86	72.1%	596	6.9	5	0	149.5	47
Career		748	1,164	64.3%	8,984	7.7	59	22	142.0	49

Season	Team
2025	Mississippi State	112	26	0.2	3	24
2024	Mississippi State	34	36	1.1	2	18
2023	Baylor	67	29	0.4	4	27
2022	Baylor	76	96	1.3	2	35
2021	Baylor	21	59	2.8	0	28
Career		310	246	0.8	11	35

Game log

Game log · Week-by-week

2025 season · 11 games

Box score · CFBD

Swipe the table sideways for more columns.

Wk	Opp	CMP/ATT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA	QBR	Note
Wk 1	W 34-17@ Southern Miss	26/34	270	1	1	7.9	57.6
Wk 2	W 24-20vs No. 12 Arizona State	19/33	279	3	0	8.5	42.0	3 TD passes
Wk 3	W 63-0vs Alcorn State	10/14	173	2	1	12.4	79.6
Wk 4	W 38-10vs Northern Illinois	12/20	160	1	0	8.0	72.0
Wk 5	L 34-41vs No. 15 Tennessee	18/29	180	1	1	6.2	22.9
Wk 6	L 9-31@ No. 6 Texas A&M	15/20	142	1	1	7.1	51.2
Wk 8	L 21-23@ Florida	24/36	324	0	1	9.0	73.8
Wk 9	L 38-45vs No. 22 Texas	26/42	381	4	0	9.1	67.4	Season-high 381 yds
Wk 10	W 38-35@ Arkansas	16/28	242	2	1	8.6	72.2
Wk 11	L 21-41vs No. 5 Georgia	10/15	86	0	0	5.7	46.4
Wk 12	L 27-49@ Missouri	19/33	199	0	2	6.0	36.2
Total		195/304	2436	15	8	8.0	—

Highs and lows

Only games with 20 or more plays count for best and lowest.
Best by our grade	at Southern Miss	W 34-17 · Graded great · Steady all game · 270 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT · Rush 6 for 5 · Sacked 0
Lowest by our grade	Georgia	L 21-41 · Graded shaky · 86 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT · Rush 9 for 15 · Sacked 2
Biggest game	Georgia	No. 5 at kickoff · L 21-41 · Graded shaky · 86 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT · Rush 9 for 15 · Sacked 2
Best play	Arizona State	Completion, touchdown, Q4 0:30 · Win chance 11% to 90%
Costliest play	Texas	Fumble, overtime 0:00 · Win chance 44% to 0%

Passing profile

Pass Profile · True throw depth (charted plays)

Adjusted ANY/A, sack rate, and where the yards came from

195/304 (64.1%) · 15 TD · 8 INT

294 of 304 attempts matched to play-by-play

115 of 294 attempts charted for true throw depth

Totals here are the box score's. Play-by-play lists 294 passing plays (186 completions) against the box score's 304 attempts (195 completions), and the depth buckets use play-by-play.

Adjusted ANY/A

6.5283 of 206 QBs

Sack rate

8.7%182 of 206 QBs

Sacked on 8.7% of dropbacks (182 of 206) — and still 83 of 206 in Adjusted ANY/A.

Adjusted ANY/A uses full-season box-score totals (attempts, yards, TDs, INTs); sack rate is play-by-play-derived.

Behind LOS · Negative air yds

15% of attempts (17)

82%comp1 INT

Air -2.9 · YAC 8.3 avg

Short · 0–9 air yds

57% of attempts (65)

58%comp

Air 4.0 · YAC 5.4 avg

Middle · 10–19 air yds

19% of attempts (22)

55%comp2 INT

Air 14.0 · YAC 3.4 avg

Deep · 20+ air yds

10% of attempts (11)

36%comp

Air 33.9 · YAC 6.0 avg

Overall 64.1% completion on 304 attempts · 36% completion on 11 deep attempts (20+ air yds).

Situational

Is he a different quarterback when it matters

Each situation vs his own 2025 baseline

No situation moves him more than 58 percentile points from his baseline.

BaselineThis situation

Down 1

-45 pct pts vs baseline · sacks 9/116 (7.8%) · league sack rate 4.2%

Down 2

-3 pct pts vs baseline · sacks 7/101 (6.9%) · league sack rate 4.5%

Down 3+

+58 pct pts vs baseline · sacks 12/93 (12.9%) · league sack rate 7.8%

Deltas are vs. this player’s own season baseline, never a league average. League sack rate by down is shown as context because sack attribution isn’t incompletion-denominated.

Teams and coaches

2021Baylor12-2HC: Dave Aranda · Run-heavy

2022Baylor6-7HC: Dave Aranda · Run-leaning

2023Baylor3-9HC: Dave Aranda · Balanced

2024Mississippi State2-10HC: Jeff Lebby · Run-leaning

2025Mississippi State5-8HC: Jeff Lebby · Run-leaning

Our ratings

CFB Zeitgeist Score 51 (#61 of 146). Show the ratings

Where this profile ranks vs the QB cohort

Box-score + play-by-play EPA percentiles · 2025 season

51Rotational starter #61 of 146 · 2025?

13 metrics · season cumulative

2025 score: the 2026 sample is not big enough yet. The rows below are 2026 so far. Concern: sack rate (12th percentile).

Real play-by-play efficiency

Interception rate#58 / 183 · 69th pct

1.7%

Explosive rate#65 / 183 · 65th pct

9.9%

EPA / dropback#77 / 183 · 58th pct

0.20

Success rate#111 / 183 · 39th pct

39.0%

Sack rate#162 / 183 · 12th pct

9.0%

Box-score rates (8)

Yards / att#38 / 183 · 78th pct

8.0

Pass yards#68 / 183 · 63rd pct

2436

Completion %#68 / 183 · 63rd pct

64.1%

Pass TDs#71 / 183 · 60th pct

Rush TDs#86 / 183 · 49th pct

Interceptions#115 / 183 · 32nd pct

Rush yards#132 / 183 · 28th pct

Fumbles lost#132 / 174 · 18th pct

Season trend

Last seasonThis season

EPA / dropback

51st → 58th percentile

Success rate

65th → 39th percentile

Explosive rate

58th → 65th percentile

Sack rate

25th → 12th percentile

Interception rate

93rd → 69th percentile

Percentiles versus same-position peers with enough snaps in 2025. Most bars are box-score rates; EPA / success-rate bars are computed from real play-by-play (offense only — no defensive EPA model exists yet).

Zeitgeist Passer Rating

2025 · our own passing-efficiency number, shown next to the 1979 formula it does not replace.

After 308 dropbacks

58Zeitgeist Passer Rating50th of 142 FBS QBs

NCAA passer rating 142.5 50th of 142 FBS QBs

Positive-play rate weight 24%

45.0%44th pct of FBS QBs

share of dropbacks that gained expected points · +0.8% schedule adj.

Yards per attempt weight 56%

8.1486th pct of FBS QBs

sacks excluded · +0.2 schedule adj.

Sack rate weight 21% (penalty)

8.5%10th pct of FBS QBs

the input passer rating cannot see · -0.6% schedule adj.

Opponent-adjusted; garbage time excluded (15 of 323 dropbacks dropped). 50 = FBS average; the number is pulled toward 50 when the sample is thin. How ZPR is built.

Splits

Home and road splits, scheme and staff

Splits · Per-game

2025 season · 11 games

Home/Road · Season halves

Home vs Road

	YDS/g	TD/g	YPA	INT/g
Home6g	210	1.8	8.3	0.3
Road5g	235	0.8	7.7	1.2

First half vs Second half

	YDS/g	TD/g	YPA	INT/g
Weeks 1-76g	201	1.5	8.3	0.7
Weeks 8+5g	246	1.2	7.7	0.8

Supporting cast · Scheme

Staff and system around the player

2025 season

Head Coach

Jeff Lebby

Pass share

41.8%

390 pass / 543 run

Plays / game

71.8

13 games

Scheme: Run-leaning.

Awards

Player standing · 2025

Impact starter

304 pass attempts and 112 carries in 11 games, about as many passes and runs a game as a typical FBS quarterback who plays every week.

Recognition

Roster2-deepStarterRecognizedEliteApex

Production · CFB Zeitgeist Score

51 · #61 of 146 QBs · 2025

Three-star recruit. Now #61 at the position.

2026 outlook

Outside shot for All-SEC

Based on 2025: #11 of 16 SEC QBs

How the All-SEC base rate is computed

A base rate for the rank, not a forecast of this player: 22% of returning players who ranked #11–20 at their position in their conference made an all-conference team the next season (95% confidence interval 19–25%).