Dave Aranda
Followed Matt Rhule. Dave Aranda moved Baylor from National Program I to Power Program III in 7 seasons.
In his own words
We have walkthrough today. DJ will participate and go through the walkthrough
He’s going for today, and we’ll be day to day after that. We’ll see after today how Tuesday looks and Wednesday and so forth. Right now, DJ’s a day-to-day guy.
I think one of the things I found the most freeing was not being the head coach and the (defensive coordinator) really allowed us to spend more money on defense
Career arc
His real stature score, season by season, across every program he’s coached — so a stretch that stays in one tier the whole way can still climb or sink on the line, not just flatten out. Node color marks the tier reached. Which program a stretch belongs to is carried by the shaded lane behind it.
Reached Power Program in his 2nd career season — faster than 51% of the 395 FBS coaches who have ever reached Power Program (rank #170 of 395 by seasons-to-arrival).
Style position and drift
Where each stint’s offense sat between run-first and pass-first, and how far it moved from one season to the next. The band is that stint’s real season-to-season range, not a fixed-width box.
Season-to-season pass-rate range for all 258 FBS coaching stints with at least three covered seasons, 2014–2025.
The big-game ledger
How he does in the games that matter most — rivalry record, performance broken out by real opponent tier, one-score games, and his toughest historical matchup.
3–6 against his rivals. Just 1–3 against Neal Brown.
His own effect, isolated
A statistical estimate of this coach’s contribution to team performance, separated from that season’s roster talent, returning production, and his coordinators — pooled across his whole head-coaching career.
Model fit as of 2026-09-04.
Coaching career
2nd-best Baylor tenure of 16 by the numbers.
Performs about as expected for his recruiting talent on offense and underperforms his recruiting talent on defense.
Followed Matt Rhule (2017–2019).
| Season | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Record & result | ||||||||
| Record | 2–7 | 12–2 | 6–7 | 3–9 | 8–5 | 5–7 | 0–0 | |
| Postseason | — | W bowl | L bowl | — | L bowl | — | — | |
| Recruiting rank | #54 | #44 | #37 | #35 | #67 | #36 | #57 | |
| Style — pass rate | ||||||||
| Pass rate | 52.7 | 39.0 | 42.3 | 51.7 | 45.8 | 55.5 | 52.5 | |
| Coordinators | ||||||||
| OC | Larry Fedora | Jeff Grimes | Jeff Grimes | Jeff Grimes | Jake Spavital | Jake Spavital | Jake Spavital | |
| DC | Ron Roberts | Ron Roberts | Ron Roberts | Matt Powledge | Matt Powledge | Matt Powledge | Joe Klanderman | |
| Outcome — opponent-adjusted efficiency percentile | ||||||||
| Offense | 15 | 63 | 58 | 33 | 74 | 46 | 20 | |
| Defense | 56 | 53 | 26 | 7 | 37 | 39 | 68 | |
| Tendencies — play-by-play, neutral script (2021+ only) | ||||||||
| 1st-down pass% | 49.6 | 37.0 | 40.6 | 51.6 | 48.1 | 59.5 | 40.0 | |
| Red-zone pass% | 33.3 | 34.6 | 33.6 | 38.6 | 35.6 | 54.2 | 41.2 | |
| 4th-down go%opp. territory | 36.7 | 45.3 | 55.8 | 50.0 | 61.4 | 64.8 | — | |
A typical amount of portal roster-building.
Brings in bigger-than-position-typical players than most.
Recruits older, more experienced transfers than most.
14 NFL Draft picks: Denzel Mims (2020), James Lynch (2020), Bravvion Roy (2020), Clay Johnston (2020), William Bradley-King (2021), Jalen Pitre (2022), Tyquan Thornton (2022), JT Woods (2022) + 6 more
3 player-seasons honored (All-America / national award): Connor Galvin (2021), Jalen Pitre (2021), Palmer Williams (2026)
Dave Aranda
Defensive coordinator across 2 programs, 2 stints, before and after wearing the head-coach hat — every season measured on the same axis, whether he personally ran the unit or someone else did.