Chance to win each game, from the CFB Zeitgeist forecast ratings with home field. #N = AP rank in the latest poll.
Fans are feeling good about Baylor
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The Bear Cast: Reviewing Baylor Football's Win at UCF, Coaching Search Updates In this episode, Grayson Grundhoefer and Colt Barber review Baylor's big win at UCF last Friday night. Plus, the pair give coaching search updates.
My thing was more that he should’ve been fired when he got crushed by us last year. Now losing to us was fine, but when Ficklin looked faster than the rest of your defense, which is supposed to be his thing, you can’t look at that and think I feel safe with him.
From what I have seen from Baylor fans, they have wanted him gone even before our game last year.
Fan mood · last 3 weeks · more upbeat than 3 in 4 FBS fan bases
This season, week by week
Composite stature after each game — the number above each point.
Report card
Above the median on both sides of the ball — 63rd percentile offense, 52nd percentile defense.
Baylor, every completed season graded against the whole field, then averaged.
Each season is his team’s percentile among every team with that stat (the share it beat), averaged over his completed seasons here; a mid-season takeover year and the season in progress aren’t graded. Letters: A+ 90th percentile and up, A 80, B+ 70, B 60, B− 50, C+ 45, C 40, C− 30, D 15, F below.
Gold: stories we tracked each season, drawn on a square-root scale so a quiet year still shows. Hatched: before we started tracking (2025). Earlier years had thinner coverage, so compare within a stop, not across decades.
Stories are headlines grouped by what they are about, counted through Nov 4.
Stats
Big games
The big-game ledger
How he does in the games that matter most — rivalry record, performance broken out by real opponent tier, one-score games, and his toughest historical matchup.
4-8 against his rivals. Just 1-4 against Sonny Dykes.
’22 L · blew a 8-pt lead’23 L · blew a 7-pt lead’24 W · erased a 7-pt deficit’25 L · blew a 7-pt lead’26 L
covered the spread
Performance by opponent class
Blue Blood
0-1 0.0%ATS —
Power Program
8-21 27.6%ATS 11-16-2 29 of 29
National Program
18-14 56.2%ATS 17-14-1 32 of 32
Regional Program
9-4 69.2%ATS 8-5 13 of 13
ATS is his record against the spread: did his team beat the closing betting line, winning by more than it or losing by less? Lines start in 2013; a dash means fewer than 6 of those games had one. One-score games carry no spread record: a big favorite that wins a close game has almost always failed to cover, so that number would say nothing about the coach.
Signature games
5-15 vs. AP top 25 · 2-3 vs. the top 10
Every AP-ranked regular-season opponent, by rank (#1 at top) and year
’20’21’22’23’24’25
win loss · higher = higher-ranked opponent · dashed line = top 10
Signature wins
WTC
TCU · 2024
37-34
RivalQuality opponent
WTT
Texas Tech · 2024
59-35
RivalUpsetQuality opponent
WTT
Texas Tech · 2022
45-17
RivalUpsetQuality opponent
Signature losses
LTT
Texas Tech · 2023
14-39
Rival
LTC
TCU · 2023
17-42
Rival
LTX
Texas State · 2023
31-42
Upset
Tags describe each game; they aren’t scores. The weighting that picks these games is still being tested.
Passed more than the situation called for under Spavital.
5,073 run and pass snaps at Baylor, 2020–2025, his own games, one row per offensive coordinator. Each cell is how much more often he passed than the rest of FBS did in the same situation (field zone, down, distance, score, quarter, same season), in percentage points.
passed moreran morewithin noise (95% range includes 0)
Pass rate, stint by stint
Where each stint’s offense sat between run-first and pass-first, and how far it moved from one season to the next, against the FBS-wide average of 41% pass. The band is that stint’s real season-to-season range, not a fixed-width box.
Pass rate — share of offensive plays that were pass attemptsfirst covered seasonmost recent covered seasonfull season-to-season range (3+ covered seasons)
How much that is, against every other stint
Season-to-season pass-rate range for all 449 FBS coaching stints with at least three covered seasons, 2004–2025.
Typical stint7.010.3 median14.8middle half of all stints
Baylor16.5pt#71 of 449 · more than most
Building the roster
Five numbers on how he actually stocks a roster, from signing day to draft day.
His 6 ranked Baylor classes of his own have averaged #46 nationally — best #35, worst #67.
2020
#54
Transition
2021
#44
His class
2022
#37
His class
2023
#35
His class
2024
#67
His class
2025
#36
His class
2026
#57
His class
His class — he had the full signing cycleTransition — he was hired mid-cycle
Rank is each signing class’s national recruiting rank (#1 is best). Only a class he had a full signing cycle to build counts as his; inherited and mid-transition classes still show here, faded, but stay out of the average.
Roster ownership
Roster ownership
100%His own players
of his 2026 roster arrived on his watch — 146 of 146 players. Nobody is left from before he was hired.
Of his own players on this roster, 32% came through the transfer portal; the rest are non-portal arrivals (high-school signees, JUCO transfers, walk-ons).
This tenure spans the 2021 transfer-portal tracking floor: seasons before 2021 structurally cannot be classified portal-vs-not (they land in 'unknown' below), so the portal-share figure understates how many pre-2021 arrivals might have been transfers under the pre-portal-tracking transfer rules.
New players each season, 2022–2026
33% of his 232 new players since 2022 came through the portal (FBS programs, same seasons: 23%) — the 9th-highest share of the 68 Power 4 programs. His share was 6% in 2022 and 50% in 2026.
Graded on the players who arrived and the players who left together, his portal seasons came out better than most FBS programs’ in 4 of the 5 seasons graded. our read
20223 of 47Portal grade: about typical for FBS that season
202311 of 42Portal grade: better than most — #11 of 130 FBS programs that season
202412 of 36Portal grade: better than most — #12 of 134 FBS programs that season
202522 of 51Portal grade: better than most — #7 of 136 FBS programs that season
202628 of 56Portal grade: better than most — #25 of 136 FBS programs that season
Came through the portalNon-portal arrivalsFBS-wide share that season
Each player counts once, in the season he arrived. 2021, the first season of portal tracking here, is left off because its arrival records look incomplete (about 31 new players per FBS team, against 52 in 2022). Portal grade: the site’s position-value-weighted scoring (the same engine as the Portal Heat feed and the “Who won the portal” grade): the value of the players who came in minus the value of the ones who left, ranked against every FBS program’s grade that same season. A season with fewer than 4 transfers in and out is not graded.
“His own” means the player arrived while he was head coach; “inherited” means a predecessor brought him in.
Size up front
Size up front
+3 lbAgainst the FBS average
Offensive linemen on his Baylor rosters have averaged 3 lb heavier than the FBS average (2020–2026). In the three seasons before he arrived, Baylor’s line averaged within a few pounds of the FBS average.
Baylor2020–2026+3 lb
−10FBS avg+10lb
His seasonsSame program, the seasons before he arrivedMiddle half of FBS coaching runs since 2010
Average listed weight of every offensive lineman on each season’s roster, holdovers included, against every FBS roster that season (2010 on; a program needs 3+ seasons under him to appear). Weights are the ones programs publish, and programs list differently. This describes size only — not scheme, and not quality.
Where he recruits
TXTop state
is his biggest recruiting state: 90 of 129 signees (70%) across his 2020–2026 tenure, drawn from 16 states in all. Next: MS (7).
Where his signees came from, 2020–2026 (129 high-school, JUCO and prep signees)
79% of his signees come from TX and its 4 border states (LA 6, OK 4, AR 2).
Off this map: 9 signees to the east (FL 3, NC 2, others), 5 to the west (CA 5) and 1 to the north (MI).
By region
South
117
West
9
Midwest
3
Roster distance from campus (McLane Stadium, TX)
median hometown distance
168 mi
within 100 mi
28%
within 500 mi
71%
beyond 1,000 mi
13%
139 of 146 roster players with a known hometown (95% coverage)
The map counts signed recruits across his tenure; the distance figures cover his current roster, transfers and walk-ons included. Two different groups, kept separate on purpose.
The NFL pipeline
The NFL pipeline
10Drafted
players drafted into the NFL off his teams here. Most were someone else’s recruits: 6 arrived under Matt Rhule; 4 he brought in himself.
His recruits 4Inherited 610 roster-verified · 0 estimated
Most recent picks first
Year
Pick
Player
Pos
NFL team
Note
2026
R6.03
Jackie Marshall
Defensive Tackle
Tennessee Titans
2026
R6.10
Josh Cameron
Wide Receiver
Jacksonville Jaguars
2023
R3.35
Siaki Ika
Defensive Tackle
Cleveland Browns
2022
R2.05
Jalen Pitre
Safety
Houston Texans
recruited under Matt Rhule
2022
R2.18
Tyquan Thornton
Wide Receiver
New England Patriots
recruited under Matt Rhule
2022
R3.15
JT Woods
Safety
Los Angeles Chargers
recruited under Matt Rhule
2022
R3.25
Terrel Bernard
Inside Linebacker
Buffalo Bills
recruited under Matt Rhule
2022
R6.25
Trestan Ebner
Running Back
Chicago Bears
recruited under Matt Rhule
Year
Pick
Player
Pos
NFL team
Note
2022
R7.21
Kalon Barnes
Cornerback
Carolina Panthers
recruited under Matt Rhule
2021
R7.12
William Bradley-King
Outside Linebacker
Washington Football Team
A pick counts toward his tenure when the player’s final college season was one he coached, a checkable rule rather than a claim about who developed the player. A blank note means the player is on a verified roster and arrived on his watch. “Estimated” means no roster record, so the final season is assumed to be the year before the draft.
News
Stories about him
Headlines, grouped by what they are about. Each is the outlet’s own.
Thank you for the opportunity to lead Baylor Football for the last seven years — it’s been a tremendous honor
To our coaches, football staff and families, thank you for making the countless sacrifices that come with the job
I think as the game went on, I think we got tired
He’s working for perfection and working to get better
We have walkthrough today. DJ will participate and go through the walkthrough
He’s going for today, and we’ll be day to day after that. We’ll see after today how Tuesday looks and Wednesday and so forth. Right now, DJ’s a day-to-day guy.
I think one of the things I found the most freeing was not being the head coach and the (defensive coordinator) really allowed us to spend more money on defense
He’s going for today, and we’ll be day to day after that. We’ll see after today how Tuesday looks and Wednesday and so forth. Right now, DJ’s a day-to-day guy.
I think one of the things I found the most freeing was not being the head coach and the (defensive coordinator) really allowed us to spend more money on defense
Dave Aranda moved Baylor from National Program I to Power Program III in 7 seasons.
+0.8 pts over 7 seasons · bottom 43% of 6-9-season tenures (368 in sample)
2nd-best Baylor tenure of 16 by the numbers.
Followed Matt Rhule (2017–2019).
System Shift, on arrival
swipe to see every season
Season
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
Trend
Record & result
Record
2-7
12-2
6-7
3-9
8-5
5-7
5-3
Postseason
—
W bowl
L bowl
—
L bowl
—
—
Coordinators
OC
Larry Fedora
Jeff Grimes
Jeff Grimes
Jeff Grimes
Jake Spavital
Jake Spavital
Jake Spavital
DC
Ron Roberts
Ron Roberts
Ron Roberts
Matt Powledge
Matt Powledge
Matt Powledge
Joe Klanderman
Outcome — opponent-adjusted efficiency percentile
Offense
15
55
58
33
74
46
63
Defense
58
83
26
7
37
39
98
Tendencies — play-by-play, neutral script
1st-down pass%
49.6
37.0
40.6
51.6
48.1
59.5
41.3
Red-zone pass%
33.3
34.6
33.6
38.6
35.6
54.2
46.8
4th-down go%opp. territory
36.7
45.3
55.8
50.0
61.4
64.8
41.7
Recruiter or developer?
Performs about as expected for his recruiting talent on offense and underperforms his recruiting talent on defense.
Offense vs. talent
-8.7 pts
#144 of 208 · middle half
Defense vs. talent
-13.7 pts
#163 of 208 · bottom quarter
Recruiting talent is team-wide (no offense/defense split exists in the source data) -- both sides are scored against the same talent input, only the outcome is side-specific.
Who they bring in
Brings in bigger-than-position-typical players than most.
Recruits younger transfers than most — more of a development bet.
Avg. size (raw)
6′2″, 245 lbs
across 82 of 92 arrivals — unadjusted for position mix
Size vs. position-typical
+8.6 lbs
#29 of 255 · top quarter
Avg. class year
Jr
#207 of 255 · bottom quarter
Avg. portal rating
3.1★
rated arrivals only
Top states: TX (33), FL (6), OK (5), OH (4), GA (4)
Who won the portal our read
Talent added
60.2
position-weighted
Talent lost
60.1
position-weighted
Net
+0.2
arrivals minus departures
Best addition: D.J. Lagway (QB) from Florida
Biggest loss: Gerry Bohanon (QB) to South Florida
Position-value-weighted (QB/CB weighted highest, depth-decayed within each position) — the same scoring engine as the Portal Heat feed, not a separate grade.
Does the system survive a coordinator change?
OC: Larry Fedora → Jeff Grimes · 2021
1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.
1st-down pass rate: 49.6% → 37.0% (-12.6 pts)
Confound, shown not hidden: only 62% of offensive production returned the year the coordinator changed — the roster turned over at the same time, not just the play-caller.
OC: Jeff Grimes → Jake Spavital · 2024The system held
2-season window either side.
1st-down pass rate: 46.1% → 53.8% (+7.7 pts)
Confound, shown not hidden: only 55% of offensive production returned the year the coordinator changed — the roster turned over at the same time, not just the play-caller.
DC: Ron Roberts → Matt Powledge · 2023The defense collapsed across the change
2-season window either side.
DC: Matt Powledge → Joe Klanderman · 2026
1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.
Where the roster comes from, by position
Grows Kicker from high school
75%
#49 of 56 stints
Grows Running back from high school
88%
#189 of 208 stints
Postseason detail2021: Beat Ole Miss 21-7 Allstate Sugar Bowl2022: Lost to Air Force 15-30 Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl2024: Lost to LSU 31-44 Kinder's Texas Bowl
The data leans negative, where the data can separate from zero: every conclusive reading points the same way.
Raised the program
BA+0.8 pts at Baylor · #631 of 1290 · middle half
Beat his talent
Offense vs. talent
-8.7 pts
#144 of 208 · middle half · 6 covered seasons
Defense vs. talent
-13.7 pts
#163 of 208 · bottom quarter · 6 covered seasons
His own effect, isolated?
Offense marginal impact
-0.14
not distinguishable from zero
Defense marginal impact
-0.16
not distinguishable from zero
Model fit as of 2026-09-04.
Coordinator years
Defensive coordinator across 2 programs, 2 stints, before and after wearing the head-coach hat — every season measured on the same axis, whether he personally ran the unit or someone else did.
How to read this. Coordinator seasons come from our coordinator career records; head-coaching-era seasons are the same unit's FBS-relative percentile for those years, regardless of who coached it, read directly from the staff assignments record. A role change (a “hinge”) is a fact, never a performance verdict — only the season-by-season data itself is colored by outcome.
Tennessee Titans
Jacksonville Jaguars
Cleveland Browns
Houston Texans
New England Patriots
Los Angeles Chargers
Buffalo Bills
Chicago Bears
Carolina Panthers
Washington Football Team
