#13

Caleb Williams

Former quarterback at USC. 2023: 3,633 passing yards, 30 TD, 5 INT.

QB · USC · Jr. · #13

6′1″ · 215 lb · Washington, DC

CFB Index 84 · #8 of 140 QBsHigh confidenceWatch-list name (model)Chicago — drafted 2024, No. 1 overall

Recruiting

5★

QB recruit

No. 7 nationally · Signed with Oklahoma

Statement game460 yds · 5 TDvs Tulane (FBS) · L 45-46

Top 1% passing yards game since 2021.

His career numbers, season by season

The story

Former quarterback at USC. 2023: 3,633 passing yards, 30 TD, 5 INT.

Signed as a 5-star recruit to Oklahoma in 2021.
Drafted round 1 by the Chicago in 2024.
Named All-America (AP) in 2022.

His career, year by year

Career, closed

Gone at No. 1 overall.

How it ended

Three seasons at USC, 10,080 passing yards, a Consensus All-American season (2022) — drafted at No. 1 overall by Chicago.

His career

He was winning awards before he was old enough to be a story.

The week the volume broke through — put up 402 yds vs Texas Tech.Texas Tech · W 52-212021

202110 games

Signed with Oklahoma5-star out of Gonzaga
All-Big 12second

202214 games

All-Americafirst · 10 selectors
All-Pac-12First Team
Heismanwinner
Maxwellwinner
Walter Campwinner

2024

Drafted by Chicagoround 1, pick 1

Career arc

Recruit

★★★★★

#7 national

CFB

College

2 teams

2021–2023

NFL

NFL Draft

R1 · #1

Chicago · 2024

Trophy case · Confirmed honors

What the selectors said

18 honors · 2 categories

🏆

ALL-AMERICA · CONSENSUS

Consensus AA (2022)

9 first-team selectors

🥈

ALL-PAC-12 · 1ST TEAM

All-Pac-12 1st team (2022)

Badges

Top-10 Recruit

Coaching lineage · 2021–2023

2 coaches

2021

Donte Williams

USC

2022–2023

Lincoln Riley

USC

era →

Coaching transition mid-career: Donte Williams → Lincoln Riley. Worth noting in scheme + development context.

Where He Ended Up · NFL

ChicagoEntering 3rd NFL season

#1Rd 1 · Pick 1

ChicagoEntering 3rd NFL season

View college career stats ↓

2023 snapshot

Season context · Team result + system

2021Oklahoma11-2HC: Bob Stoops · Balanced

2022USC11-3HC: Lincoln Riley · Balanced

2023USC8-5HC: Lincoln Riley · Pass-leaning, slow tempo

Where this profile ranks vs the QB cohort

Box-score + play-by-play EPA percentiles

84All-Conference level #8 of 140?

High confidence13 metrics · season cumulative

Elite: explosive rate (87th percentile). Strength: rush tds (96th percentile). Concern: sack rate (23rd percentile).

Real play-by-play efficiency

Explosive rate#24 / 177 · 87th pct

14.1%

Success rate#43 / 177 · 76th pct

45.7%

EPA / dropback#47 / 177 · 74th pct

0.37

Interception rate#61 / 177 · 66th pct

0.3%

Sack rate#137 / 177 · 23rd pct

8.2%

Box-score rates (8)

Rush TDs#6 / 179 · 96th pct

Pass TDs#9 / 179 · 95th pct

Yards / att#9 / 179 · 95th pct

9.4

Pass yards#11 / 179 · 94th pct

3633

Completion %#14 / 179 · 92nd pct

68.6%

Interceptions#54 / 179 · 64th pct

Rush yards#97 / 179 · 46th pct

115

Fumbles lost#125 / 167 · 20th pct

Season trend

Last seasonThis season

EPA / dropback

96th → 74th percentile

Success rate

94th → 76th percentile

Explosive rate

83rd → 87th percentile

Sack rate

58th → 23rd percentile

Interception rate

94th → 66th percentile

Percentiles versus same-position peers with enough snaps this season. Most bars are box-score rates; EPA / success-rate bars are computed from real play-by-play (offense only — no defensive EPA model exists yet).

Passing profile

Pass Profile · Completions by yards gained (PBP)

Adjusted ANY/A, sack rate, and where the yards came from

252/370 (68.1%) · 30 TD · 5 INT

370 of 388 attempts matched to play-by-play

Adjusted ANY/A

9.1017 of 212 QBs

Sack rate

7.8%168 of 212 QBs

Sacked on 7.8% of dropbacks (168 of 212) — and still 17 of 212 in Adjusted ANY/A.

Adjusted ANY/A uses full-season box-score totals (attempts, yards, TDs, INTs); sack rate is play-by-play-derived.

Short

0–9 yds

51%of completions

128 comp5.0 yds avg6 TD

Middle

10–19 yds

29%of completions

72 comp13.2 yds avg3 TD

Deep

20+ yds

21%of completions

52 comp33.2 yds avg11 TD

Overall 68.1% completion on 370 attempts · 52 deep completions averaging 33.2 yds.

Situational

Is he a different quarterback when it matters

Each situation vs his own 2023 baseline

No situation moves him more than 47 percentile points from his baseline.

BaselineThis situation

Down 1

-35 pct pts vs baseline · sacks 9/156 (5.8%) · league sack rate 4.9% · ~our read

Down 2

+12 pct pts vs baseline · sacks 10/128 (7.8%) · league sack rate 5.2% · ~our read

Down 3+

+47 pct pts vs baseline · sacks 11/86 (12.8%) · league sack rate 9.1% · ~our read

Deltas are vs. this player’s own season baseline, never a league average. League sack rate by down is shown as context because sack attribution isn’t incompletion-denominated.

Splits & context

Splits · Per-game

2023 season · 12 games

Home/Road · Season halves

Home vs Road

	YDS/g	TD/g	YPA	INT/g
Home7g	293	2.4	10.3	0.1
Road5g	317	2.6	8.7	0.8

First half vs Second half

	YDS/g	TD/g	YPA	INT/g
Weeks 1-77g	289	3.3	10.4	0.6
Weeks 8+5g	322	1.4	8.7	0.2

Supporting cast · Scheme

Staff and system around the player

2026 season

Head Coach

Lincoln Riley

Pass share

46.0%

97 pass / 114 run

Plays / game

70.3

3 games

Scheme: Run-leaning.

Awards

Player standing · 2023

Watch-list name (model)

Our Heisman model has him inside the top 25; he is not on a published award watch list yet.

Recognition

Roster2-deepStarterRecognizedEliteApex

Production · CFB Index Score

84 · #8 of 140 QBs

Former five-star. Now #8 at the position.

Selector Grid · 2022

AP—

FWAA1st

AFCA1st

WCFF1st

SN1st

SI—

Named Consensus All-American — recognized on 3+ of the 5 NCAA-recognized selector lists.

Career stats

Season	Team
2023	USC	266	388	68.6%	3,633	9.4	30	5	170.1	73	--	--
2022	USC	332	499	66.5%	4,535	9.1	42	5	168.6	87	--	--
2021	Oklahoma	136	211	64.5%	1,912	9.1	21	4	169.6	68	--	--
Career		734	1,098	66.8%	10,080	9.2	93	14	169.4	79	--	--

Season	Team
2023	USC	99	115	1.2	11	--
2022	USC	113	382	3.4	10	--
2021	Oklahoma	79	442	5.6	6	--
Career		291	939	3.2	27	--

Signature game

SIGNATURE GAME · Week 6 · 2023

W 43–41

vs Arizona

219 yds · 1 TD · 0 INT · QBR 78.3 · 41 rush yds (12 car) · 3 TD

Edged out Arizona at home in a shootout.

With E. Czaplicki — 46 AVG · 1 IN 20 · 55 LONG · B. Rice — 4 rec · 96 yds

Signature plays

Signature plays · top plays by |EPA|

The plays that mattered most

fact

Week 12 · UCLA · 3&10 · Q2 · EPA +7.11Caleb Williams pass complete to Brenden Rice for 74 yds for a TD (Denis Lynch KICK)
Week 5 · Colorado · 3&4 · Q1 · EPA +6.70Caleb Williams pass complete to Tahj Washington for 71 yds for a TD (Denis Lynch KICK)
Week 1 · San José State · 1&10 · Q2 · EPA +6.15Tahj Washington 76 Yd pass from Caleb Williams (Denis Lynch Kick)
Week 2 · Stanford · 1&10 · Q2 · EPA +6.08Brenden Rice 75 Yd pass from Caleb Williams (Denis Lynch Kick)
Week 4 · Arizona State · 4&7 · Q1 · EPA +5.98Caleb Williams pass complete to Brenden Rice for 43 yds for a TD (Denis Lynch KICK)
Week 1 · Nevada · 3&5 · Q3 · EPA +4.88Caleb Williams pass complete to Tahj Washington for 45 yds for a TD (Denis Lynch KICK)
Week 6 · Arizona · 2&20 · Q2 · EPA +4.43Caleb Williams pass complete to Brenden Rice for 53 yds to the ARIZ 32 for a 1ST down
Week 1 · Nevada · 1&20 · Q2 · EPA +4.25Caleb Williams pass complete to MarShawn Lloyd for 54 yds to the NEV 20 for a 1ST down
Week 11 · Oregon · 2&19 · Q1 · EPA +4.18Caleb Williams pass complete to Dorian Singer for 44 yds to the ORE 18 for a 1ST down
Week 9 · California · 4&11 · Q2 · EPA +3.91Caleb Williams pass complete to Lake McRee for 29 yds to the CAL 16 for a 1ST down

Game log

Game log · Week-by-week

2023 season · 12 games

Box score · CFBD

Wk	Opp	CMP/ATT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA	QBR	Note
Wk 1	W 56-28vs San José State	18/25	278	4	0	11.1	84.9	5 TD passes
Wk 1	W 66-14vs Nevada	18/24	319	5	0	13.3	92.1	5 TD passes
Wk 2	W 56-10vs Stanford	19/21	281	3	0	13.4	97.5	3 TD passes
Wk 4	W 42-28@ Arizona State	20/31	322	3	0	10.4	69.7	3 TD passes
Wk 5	W 48-41@ Colorado	30/40	403	6	1	10.1	93.1	Season-high 403 yds
Wk 6	W 43-41vs Arizona	14/25	219	1	0	8.8	78.3
Wk 7	L 20-48@ Notre Dame	23/37	199	1	3	5.4	55.7	3 INTs — rough day
Wk 8	L 32-34vs Utah	24/34	256	0	0	7.5	89.3
Wk 9	W 50-49@ California	23/40	369	2	0	9.2	62.1	Clean 2-TD game
Wk 10	L 42-52vs Washington	27/35	312	3	0	8.9	89.1	3 TD passes
Wk 11	L 27-36@ Oregon	19/34	291	1	0	8.6	68.1
Wk 12	L 20-38vs UCLA	31/42	384	1	1	9.1	79.4
Total		266/388	3633	30	5	9.7	79.9

How he plays

Play style

High-percentage passer who protects the ball. Loses the matchup on improvisation.

CFB Index positional classification

Checkdown vs gunslinger · 3rd-and-long

Where the completions actually land

fact

54.1%Completion %

22.7%Conversion/dropback

50.0%Land short of sticks

0INTs

54.1% completion on 3rd-and-8+, but only 22.7% conversion-per-dropback — 50.0% of completions land short of the sticks.

Where completions land is fact — whether incompletions were aimed deep is intent, not recorded here, so this card counts completions only. ~ our read: checkdown by design

Short-yardage / goal-line · enumeration

Who gets the tough yard

fact

8/27Inside-5 share

8 of the team's 27 inside-the-5 carries (29.6%).