No. 19 Texas upsets No. 7 Ole Miss 34-27
No. 19 Texas beat No. 7 Ole Miss 34-27. Share this game
We had Ole Miss favored. Texas won.
Next: Ole Miss vs Auburn, Sat Oct 31 · 12:45 PM ET · Ole Miss favored by 13.5
Next: Texas vs Mississippi State, Sat Oct 31 · 7:30 PM ET · Texas favored by 21
This is the Chambliss we’ve been waiting on. I love this 2nd half team
An Ole Miss fanHow it swung
The turning point: Chambliss 27-yd TD pass to Fields, ties it 24-24 (Q4, 13:57). Texas went from 87% to 60% to win. Fans right then: “Haters said we couldn’t do it. And they were right. Good call by the haters honestly.” r/CFB game thread
Before kickoff, our ratings gave Texas a 49% chance, and the closing betting line (Texas was a 3-point favorite) put it at 60%.
Favored the whole way: Texas never fell below 53%.
Ole Miss never had better than a 47% chance.
Texas 34-27 Ole MissTexas wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.Ole Miss 27-34 TexasOle Miss lostMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.The two plays that swung it
- 1Q4 13:57Chambliss 27-yd TD pass to Fields, ties it 24-24Texas 87% → 60% (−27)
- 2Q4 8:04Manning 1-yd TD run, Texas goes ahead 31-24Texas 65% → 89% (+24)
The two plays that swung it
- 1Q4 13:57Chambliss 27-yd TD pass to Fields, ties it 24-24Ole Miss 13% → 40% (+27)
- 2Q4 8:04Manning 1-yd TD run, Texas goes ahead 31-24Ole Miss 35% → 11% (−24)
Teams should only onside kick against Texas. They’ve never recovered one.
What fans said, play by play
The line in bold above each quote is written by our model from the thread’s comments and the play-by-play.
- Q4 13:24Arch Manning throws an interception to J.Crawford as Texas fans demand he be benched
Shout out the 85% of viewers that predicting the Arch interception after that drive
r/CFB game threadHaters said we couldn’t do it. And they were right. Good call by the haters honestly.
r/CFB game thread - Q4 1:22Ole Miss recovers an onside kick with 1:22 left in the fourth quarter
That was an insane onside recovery
r/CFB game thread
How to read this chart
Starts from the pregame line (Texas -3), at 69% for Texas (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores. Outlined diamonds mark rare plays. Under the scores, r/CFB comments per minute from fans with a Texas or Ole Miss flair (1,598 and 305); both sides share one scale, regulation only.Watch the plays
The bar and the arrow show Texas’s chance to win after each play; the logo is the team the play helped.
- Q1, 4:47Manning intercepted by Crawford at the Texas 33Q1, 4:47 · Texas 3, Ole Miss 3▼10%Texas’s chance to win, 63% to 53%▼10%Texas’s chance to win, 63% to 53%▶Watch from this playESPN College Football
- Q1, 4:34Chambliss intercepted by Cryer at the Texas 26returned 15 yardsQ1, 4:34 · Texas 3, Ole Miss 3▲16%Texas’s chance to win, 53% to 69%▲16%Texas’s chance to win, 53% to 69%▶Watch from this playESPN College Football
- Q2, 12:38Manning 50-yd TD pass to WingoTexas leads 17-3Q2, 12:38 · Texas 17, Ole Miss 3▲4%Texas’s chance to win, 86% to 90%▲4%Texas’s chance to win, 86% to 90%▶Watch from this playESPN College Football
- Q2, 9:21Terry 2-yd TD runTexas leads 24-3Q2, 9:21 · Texas 24, Ole Miss 3▲3%Texas’s chance to win, 95% to 98%▲3%Texas’s chance to win, 95% to 98%▶Watch from this playESPN College Football
- Q2, 1:37Chambliss intercepted by Biles at the Texas 2Q2, 1:37 · Texas 24, Ole Miss 324-3score after the play24-3score after the play▶Watch from this playESPN College Football
- Q3, 13:19Manning sacked, fumbles; Franklin returns it for a TDcuts it to 24-10Q3, 13:19 · Texas 24, Ole Miss 10▼4%Texas’s chance to win, 98% to 94%▼4%Texas’s chance to win, 98% to 94%▶Watch from this playESPN College Football
- Q3, 6:46Chambliss 6-yd TD pass to Fieldscuts it to 24-17Q3, 6:46 · Texas 24, Ole Miss 17▼7%Texas’s chance to win, 91% to 84%▼7%Texas’s chance to win, 91% to 84%▶Watch from this playESPN College Football
- Q4, 13:57Chambliss 27-yd TD pass to Fieldsties it 24-24Q4, 13:57 · Texas 24, Ole Miss 24▼27%Texas’s chance to win, 87% to 60%▼27%Texas’s chance to win, 87% to 60%▶Watch from this playESPN College Football
- Q4, 13:24Manning intercepted by Crawford at the Ole Miss 20Q4, 13:24 · Texas 24, Ole Miss 24▼6%Texas’s chance to win, 64% to 58%▼6%Texas’s chance to win, 64% to 58%▶Watch from this playESPN College Football
- Q4, 0:02Chambliss intercepted by McDonald at the Texas 0Q4, 0:02 · Texas 34, Ole Miss 27▲5%Texas’s chance to win, 95% to 100%▲5%Texas’s chance to win, 95% to 100%▶Watch from this playESPN College Football
Every drive
Texas scored on 6 of its 15 drives; Ole Miss on 4 of its 15.
Texas’s drives are teal, Ole Miss’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.
From Ole Miss’s side
Ole Miss’s best moment: Chambliss 27-yd TD pass to Fields, ties it 24-24 (Q4 13:57). It lifted Ole Miss’s win chance by 27 points.
How Ole Miss fans took it: “Gg Longhorns. A fight to the finish.” r/CFB game thread
How fans reacted
Fans of both teams were loud at once in the bracketed stretch.
“I’m sorry but 14/134 as a penalty line is a fireable offense.”
Two crowds, one game
The words each side’s fans used far more than the other side, from the game thread.
Texas fans
sark“This team is infuriating. 12 penalties for 104 yards? At some point that’s on Sark.”
Ole Miss fans
golding“This comment is dumb for so many reasons, but yall love to talk about Golding for no reason. Yall don’t have enough problems to deal with?”
Both sets of fans kept coming back to: back, ball, run, refs.
What it cost
Ole Miss’s chance to make the playoff fell from 49% to 40%.
Make the playoff
Win the conference
Win the title
Before the game (October 23, 2026) → after this result alone, in our model. Other games that weekend move it too, so the team page may differ.
Ole Miss plays vs Auburn on Sat Oct 31 with a 40% chance to make the playoff. Texas plays vs Mississippi State on Sat Oct 31 with a 72% chance to make the playoff.
Box score
Texas 34, Ole Miss 27
Texas covered −3 by 4. The total, 61, went over 54.5.
| Team totals | Ole Miss | Texas |
|---|---|---|
| Total yards | 363 | 419 |
| Passing | 25 of 52, 250 yds | 18 of 30, 212 yds |
| Rushing | 30 for 113 yds | 42 for 207 yds |
| First downs | 23 | 23 |
| Third down | 6 of 18 | 3 of 13 |
| Fourth down | 2 of 3 | 1 of 1 |
| Turnovers | 3 | 3 |
| Penalties | 8 for 58 yds | 14 for 134 yds |
| Time of possession | 25:03 | 34:57 |
Ole Miss leaders
- Passing Trinidad Chambliss 25 of 52, 250 yds, 2 TD, 3 INT
- Rushing Makhi Frazier 6 for 47 yds; Kewan Lacy 16 for 36 yds
- Receiving Deuce Alexander 8 for 87 yds; Caleb Odom 5 for 59 yds
Texas leaders
- Passing Arch Manning 18 of 30, 212 yds, 1 TD, 2 INT
- Rushing Raleek Brown 23 for 157 yds; Michael Terry III 8 for 41 yds, 1 TD
- Receiving Ryan Wingo 7 for 111 yds, 1 TD; Michael Masunas 3 for 37 yds
No rain and calm
80° at kickoff · no rain recorded · wind 7 mph from the east-southeast, gusts to 20
Game-day temperatures at DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium
Drag along the chart, or step through the game.
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Where this weather comes from
Measured at Austin - City/camp Mabry airport, 3.1 miles away. Wind and rain are airport readings near the stadium, not on the field. Game times come from the play-by-play, good to a minute or two. Source: National Weather Service, through the Iowa Environmental Mesonet. Field direction from OpenStreetMap contributors.Before kickoff
Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.
Recent games
Last three games
Ole Miss · 5-1
Rated 12th in our preseason ratings, 12th now.
2-1 in its last three, one over ranked or top-40 competition.
Last three games
Texas · 4-2
Rated 5th in our preseason ratings, 6th now.
1-2 in its last three, one over ranked or top-40 competition.
Week by week
Texas
- Wk 2Wvs Ohio State24-23
- Wk 3Wvs UTSA30-6
- Wk 4Wat Tennessee20-17
- Wk 6Lat Oklahoma24-27
- Wk 7Lvs Florida24-27
Ole Miss
- Wk 2Wvs Charlotte41-9
- Wk 3Wvs LSU32-24
- Wk 4Lat Florida28-52
- Wk 6Wat Vanderbilt52-17
- Wk 7Wvs Missouri31-3
Power rating by week
Texas is rated 1.3 points ahead as of week 7. Our power rating by week; higher is better.
Matchups
Biggest mismatch: Ole Miss’s explosive plays against Texas, 60 points
Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.
Ole Miss’s explosive plays against Texas’s defense
Ole Miss offense, 35th percentile · Texas defense, 95th
Texas’s rushing EPA against Ole Miss’s defense
Texas offense, 18th percentile · Ole Miss defense, 34th
Season profile, all the rows
Season profile
The series
Texas leads the series 6-2
8 meetings since 1912 · Ole Miss won the last meeting
- 2013Ole Miss 44-23
- 2012Texas 66-31
- 1966 · neutral siteTexas 19-0
- 1961 · neutral siteTexas 12-7
- 1957 · neutral siteOle Miss 39-7
Line, fans and home field
The betting line, and the fans
Ole Miss fans are feeling it about like the typical fanbase this week (50th percentile among FBS fanbases), in line with the numbers.
- Model · 49%
- Line · 60%
- Texas fans · 12th
- Ole Miss fans · 50th
Texas favored by 3 · Total 54.5
How games like this usually go
Texas by 3, and it went to form
Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game
The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 286 games since 2025 with a favorite of under 3.5 points.
The market
The spread moved 5.5 points toward Ole Miss.
Spread: −8.5 → −3
The books’ cut: 4.3%, the margin built into the odds
Home field
Texas is worth +7.2 points (±3.4) more at home than on the road since 2018 — top tenth of FBS, 94th percentile.
82% at home, 63% on the road against FBS opponents (45-10 home, 22-13 away).
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads +4.4 at home vs. away over 90 games — inside the ±5.6 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.
Night kickoff — historically worth about half a point more to the home side against the number, and not much more than that. The visitors travel about 555 miles to get here.
Where next
Conference standings
Going into this game: place in the conference, then conference record.