cfb zeitgeistZeitgeist
OFFSEASON · SUMMER 2026 · COMMITMENT SEASON
Heisman / Players / Ian Geffrard /Arkansas

Ian Geffrard

DL · Arkansas · So · #95

Below the discourse floor — the honest stats-only state.

25 TACKLES · 0 SACKS

2026 TRANSFERTransferred Arkansas → Texas for 2026

Where He Ended Up · Transfer

Transferred to Texas

2025Arkansas
2026Texas

DL · ARKANSAS · SEC

Ian Geffrard

  • 2
  • #95
  • 6-5 | 389 lb
  • Mableton, GA

CFB Zeitgeist Score

41

Mid-pack in the position cohort. Carried by tackles for loss at the 73rd percentile.

Heisman Heat

#10784

<1% win probability

Fan Belief

Awaiting

Player-specific FI not yet ingested. Falls back to team mood below.

Respect Gap

Awaiting

Coming online with player-level FI.

Reality Gap

Awaiting

Coming online with player-level FI.

ACCOLADE PROBABILITY

Heisman

<1%

TOP DEFENSE AWARD

Nagurski

CONSENSUS

All-American

Player Standing · 17 rungs

Tier 1 · 2-deep

R04 · Rotational

Rotational. Earning real snaps in the rotation.

Not on team2-deepStarterRecognizedEliteApex

Career Arc

HS
Recruit
★★★
#1166 national
CFB
College
Arkansas
2023–2025
NFL
NFL Draft
Not drafted (yet)

Identity & Role

The durable bio layer: position, size, hometown, and roster role.

PositionDL
Class2
Jersey95
Measurements6-5 | 389 lb
HometownMableton, GA
Primary teamArkansas

Recruiting Pedigree

How big the prospect was before college, and whether the later career arc beat that expectation.

Top pedigree 3-star No. 1166 recruit
Composite rating 0.8583 HighSchool
Signed with -- 2023
Origin Whitefield Academy Mableton, GA, USA
Class Profile Context
2023 3-star | 0.8583 No. 1166 recruit | HighSchool

Transfer Arc

Portal movement changes role, context, and perception. This keeps that path in one place.

Portal moves 1 Programs changed on file
Latest destination Texas 2026
Transfer stars 4-star CFBD transfer rating context
Eligibility Immediate Jan 4, 2026
Season Move Context
2026 Arkansas -> Texas 4-star | 0.9200 | Immediate

Heisman Lens · 2024 Season · Final

Where the player landed at the end of the listed season — final nowcast rank, win/finalist/ballot probabilities, and the cleanest official Heisman placement on file.

HIGH CONFIDENCE· through week 16
Current nowcast#10784Latest modeled ballot order
Season forecast#10824Where the full season sim points
Win probability0.0%Chance to actually win the trophy
Finalist probability0.0%Chance to make the finalist tier
Ballot probability0.0%Chance to appear anywhere on a ballot
Best official finish--Best completed Heisman placement on file

Heisman Futures

Not yet listed on major futures markets.

No achievements unlocked yet this season.

Selector Grid · 2025

AP
FWAA
AFCA
WCFF
SN
SI

Selector recognition fills in once the major honors lists (AP, FWAA, AFCA, Walter Camp, Sporting News, SI) are scraped and ingested.

NIL · Recruiting · NFL Draft

Market value, pedigree & pro outcome

Recruit stars

★★★☆☆

to —

Composite

0.8583

#1166 national

Today’s Hot-Take

The Hot-Take engine fires when this player’s percentile profile crosses a defensible threshold (top 10% in a cohort, 100+ snap sample). When it’s quiet, the model is honoring its “must be defensible” rule.

Anti-Take

PENDING

The contrarian read fires when the rules-engine detects a stat that complicates the Hot-Take. Quiet here means the model hasn’t found a defensible counter yet — not that one doesn’t exist.

The Room on Ian Geffrard

Fan sentiment · Awaiting signal

The Room reads fan conversation around a player — who’s talking, what they believe, and how that shifts. It publishes once weekly volume rebuilds; for most players that’s in-season, when game-week chatter spikes.

Cohort divergence map

Cohort divergence reads how different fanbases talk about this player. Returns once weekly mentions clear the publish floor.

Rival Radar

How rival fanbases talk about Ian Geffrard

No rival-bucket mentions in the current season.

Signature Story

Awaiting candidate metric

He hasn't written his page yet — we'll start filling it in when there are enough snaps to rank against his peers.

Signature Moment

No signature moment on the ledger yet.

Returns once this player puts together a multi-game body of work — single-game flashes alone don't clear the bar.

A 3-act season arc returns once this player has six or more games on the ledger.

Season Pace · Projection

Where the defensive totals stand

projecting to 13-game
Through 11g
25Tackles
4Tackles for loss
0Sacks
Per game
2Tackles
0.4Tackles for loss
0Sacks
Projected (13g)
30Tackles
4.7Tackles for loss
0Sacks

To hit 80-tackle season (currently 25): needs 27.5/game over remaining 2.

To hit 100-tackle season (currently 25): needs 37.5/game over remaining 2.

To hit 6-sack season (currently 0): needs 3/game over remaining 2.

To hit 10-sack season (currently 0): needs 5/game over remaining 2.

Why this is a rare defensive case

The fast read on the thing that makes this player more than a generic stat line.

Ian Geffrard is trying to climb the steepest award hill in college football: a defensive candidacy. The hook is the disruption profile on Arkansas's defense, with 0.0 sacks, 4.0 tackles for loss, and -- interceptions through the current loaded season. For a defender, the question is never just production; it is whether elite disruption and team context can become nationally undeniable.

Current place #10784 0.0% win | 0.0% finalist
Role load -- Role share still loading
Profile quirk Defensive rarity 0.0 sacks | 4.0 TFL

2025 Season · Final

Traditional stats first. Advanced context underneath.

Last season

DEF season snapshot

2025 season snapshot | final

2025 season snapshot | finalData: CFBD player stats + local Heisman modelPeer context: same position + same level
Total tackles 25 10 solo | #1667/4942 (66th pct)
TFL 4.0 Backfield disruption | #738/4972 (85th pct)
Sacks 0.0 Pass-rush finish | #1762/4972 (65th pct)
Player identity What kind of player is this?

30-second read

What kind of player is this?

High-disruption defender against FBS defenders.

High-disruption defender

2025 Season · Final

2025 season snapshot | final

Tackling & Disruption

TOT
25 66th
SOLO
10 56th
TFL
4.0 85th
SACK
0.0 65th

Coverage & Takeaways

PD
1 43rd

Game Log · Week-by-week

2025 season · 11 games

Box score · CFBD
WkOppTKLSOLOTFLSACKINTPDNote
Wk 1W 52-7vs Alabama A&M100.00.00
Wk 2W 56-14vs Arkansas State211.50.00
Wk 3L 35-41@ Ole Miss211.00.00
Wk 4L 31-32@ Memphis220.00.00
Wk 7L 31-34@ Tennessee200.00.00
Wk 8L 42-45vs Texas A&M100.00.00
Wk 9L 24-33vs Auburn310.00.00
Wk 10L 35-38vs Mississippi State100.00.00
Wk 12L 22-23@ LSU420.50.01
Wk 13L 37-52@ Texas110.00.00
Wk 14L 17-31vs Missouri621.00.00Season-high 6 tackles
Total25104.00.01
Season-by-season tables Career rows + per-season box score

Traditional history

Traditional Stats

Season rows up top, career context at the bottom.

Season rows Career row

Season context · Team result + system

2023Arkansas4-8HC: Sam Pittman · Run-leaning
2024Arkansas7-6HC: Sam Pittman · Run-leaning
2025Arkansas2-10HC: Sam Pittman · Balanced
SeasonTeam
2025Arkansas25104.00.01----
2024Arkansas1241.50.0------
2023Arkansas2--0.00.0------
Career3 loaded seasons39145.50.01----
Advanced layer Usage, value, and context

Advanced metrics second

Advanced Metrics

Usage, value, and opponent-adjusted context.

Usage Value Context
Disruption stats

TFL, sacks, and QB hurries are grouped together because defensive Heisman cases are usually built on visible havoc, not on tackle counts alone.

Coverage splash

Pass breakups, interceptions, and forced fumbles matter because national awards voters respond to plays that change possessions and highlight reels.

Peer percentile

Every percentile is compared against players at the same position and level, so an FBS quarterback is judged against FBS quarterbacks, not the whole sport.

Traditional first

The top tables stick to the stats fans already know from broadcasts and box scores. Advanced context is pushed underneath instead of replacing the basics.

INT -- -- pick-six TD
Pass breakups 1 Coverage disruption | #1241/2184 (43rd pct)
QB pressures 0 Quarterback hurries
Open full stat explorer
0 metrics visible Showing all metrics
Group Metric Value Rank Pct Why it matters
Defense Total tackles 25 #1667/4942 66th pct Volumevs FBS DEF
Defense TFL 4.0 #738/4972 85th pct Disruptionvs FBS DEF
Defense Sacks 0.0 #1762/4972 65th pct Disruptionvs FBS DEF
Defense Pass breakups 1 #1241/2184 43rd pct Coveragevs FBS DEF
Defense Solo tackles 10 #1996/4584 56th pct Volumevs FBS DEF

Player Standing

Universal 17-step ladder. Tier pills below; accolade streams nested.

AWAITING CLASSIFICATION

On-team2-deepStartingRecognizedEliteApex

AWAITING CLASSIFICATION · Rung None of 16

Why he’s here

Standing classification populates when honors, Heisman, and roster signals all align.

What moves him up

What moves him down

Accolade streams

StatusAwaiting tracker

The Lombardi award tracker integrates per-week probability once a dedicated scraper for this award lands. Confirmed past winners and finalists for this player will surface here.

Splits · Per-game

2025 season · 11 games

Home/Road · Win/Loss · Season halves

Home vs Road

TKL/gTFL/gSACK/gPD/g
Home6g2.30.40.00.0
Road5g2.20.30.00.2

Win vs Loss

TKL/gTFL/gSACK/gPD/g
Wins2g1.50.80.00.0
Losses9g2.40.30.00.1

First half vs Second half

TKL/gTFL/gSACK/gPD/g
Weeks 1-75g1.80.50.00.0
Weeks 8+6g2.70.20.00.2

Pocket and defense-quality (clean vs. pressure) splits are coming soon.

Savant · Box-rate percentiles

Where this profile ranks vs the DL cohort

41Mid-pack
6 metrics · season cumulative

Concern: qb hurries (22nd).

Tackles for loss#736 / 2975 · 73rd pct
4.0defe
Passes defended#1191 / 2975 · 48th pct
1defe
Tackles#1667 / 2975 · 43rd pct
25defe
Solo tackles#1996 / 2975 · 31st pct
10defe
Sacks#1575 / 2975 · 24th pct
0.0defe
QB hurries#1662 / 2975 · 22nd pct
0defe

Percentiles versus same-position peers with enough snaps this season, based on box-score rates.

Advanced Savant · DL · 2024

Percentile Card

Advanced opponent-adjusted percentile bars are coming soon for this player.

P4G5All FBS
EPA / dropback
awaiting
CPOE
awaiting
Success rate
awaiting
Explosive rate (20+)
awaiting
aDOT
awaiting
Deep-ball accuracy
awaiting
Pressure-to-sack
awaiting
3rd-down EPA
awaiting
Red-zone TD rate
awaiting
Play-action EPA
awaiting
Scramble EPA
awaiting
Turnover-worthy play rate
awaiting

Advanced Savant

Opponent-adjusted advanced metrics with a cohort filter.

Advanced opponent-adjusted metrics are coming soon for this player. Selected cohort: P4.

Peer Comparator · Fingerprint match

Three closest profiles by box-rate percentile

3 peers · 6 metrics
Ian GeffrardArkansasTyler MartinMassachusetts· 67% simJonJon VaughnsUCLA· 61% simTahj Ra-ElPurdue· 59% sim
Tackles for loss
73
Geffrard
63
Martin
85
Vaughns
56
Ra-El
Passes defended
48
Geffrard
67
Martin
48
Vaughns
91
Ra-El
Tackles
43
Geffrard
98
Martin
99
Vaughns
99
Ra-El
Solo tackles
31
Geffrard
87
Martin
96
Vaughns
100
Ra-El
Sacks
24
Geffrard
24
Martin
63
Vaughns
24
Ra-El
QB hurries
22
Geffrard
22
Martin
22
Vaughns
22
Ra-El

Closest peers by overall box-score percentile profile at the same position.

Player DNA

The Nose Anchor

Two-gap space-eater who occupies blockers and frees the linebackers.

IDL

His 2025 production profile sits closest to Ian Geffrard’s 2024 season.

Ian Geffrard

72%match

Arkansas · 2024

#2

Jonathan Wallace

Charlotte · 2023

72%
#3

Evan Anderson

Florida Atlantic · 2021

48%
#4

T'Vondre Sweat

Texas · 2023

OutlandConsensus All-AmericanNFL Rd 2 · Pk 6
47%
#5

T'Vondre Sweat

Texas · 2021

NFL Rd 2 · Pk 6
46%

Matches Ian on

Sack rate
Height
Weight

Differs from Ian on

Class year (higher)

Not enough data yet for this comparison.

As a junior, his production profile tracks closest to Evan Anderson's junior season at Florida Atlantic (2022).

Evan Anderson

51%match

Florida Atlantic · 2022

#2

Siaki Ika

Baylor · 2022

All-Big 12NFL Rd 3 · Pk 35
49%
#3

Deone Walker

Kentucky · 2024

All-SECNFL Rd 4
44%
#4

T'Vondre Sweat

Texas · 2022

OutlandConsensus All-AmericanNFL Rd 2 · Pk 6
39%
#5

Simonte Pepa

Utah · 2024

34%

Matches Evan on

TFL rate

Differs from Evan on

Class year (lower)
Height (higher)
Weight (higher)

Supporting Cast · Scheme

Staff and system around the player

2025 season

Head Coach

Sam Pittman

Pass share

48.8%

381 pass / 400 run

Plays / game

65.1

12 games

OL sack rate (allowed)

8.3%

324 dropbacks · PBP

Scheme: Balanced.

Coaching Lineage · 2023–2025

1 coach
2023
Sam Pittman
Arkansas
2024
Sam Pittman
Arkansas
2025
Sam Pittman
Arkansas

Played his entire career under Sam Pittman.

Bio · Recruiting · Transfer · Roster

Off-field context — switch tabs to drill into recruit profile, transfer arc, or roster timeline.

HometownMableton, GA
Height6'5"
Weight389 lb
Class2
PositionDL
Jersey95

Trophy Case · Detail

Every honor on the ledger, broken out by stream and selector.

Honors

No formal honors on the ledger yet

All-America, all-conference, player-of-the-week, watch-list, and postseason awards land here when they're earned. The absence is the signal: most players never collect formal honors, and that's its own kind of context.

Honors Timeline

Season-end distinction and week-by-week recognition on one timeline.

Season Honor Scope Team / Selector Context
No formal honors on the ledger yet. All-America, all-conference, weekly awards, watch lists, and postseason trophies land here when they’re earned.

Heisman By Year

Modeled rank and official finish by season.

Season Team Role Latest Model Forecast Win Finalist Official Finish Points Context
2024 Arkansas DL2 #10784 #10824 0.0% 0.0% -- -- W16 snapshot | SEC
2023 Arkansas DL2 #12151 #12123 0.0% 0.0% -- -- W19 snapshot | SEC

Roster Timeline

Team, conference, and class by season.

Season Team Conference Pos Class Bio
2025 Arkansas SEC DL 2 No. 95 | 6-5 | 389 lb | Mableton, GA
2024 Arkansas SEC DL 2 No. 95 | 6-5 | 389 lb | Mableton, GA
2023 Arkansas SEC DL 2 No. 95 | 6-5 | 389 lb | Mableton, GA