Ohio State

1-1AP #6

Big Ten · Ryan Day, year 9 (83-13) · Ohio Stadium · 102,780 · 101,120 avg in 2026

The nationAP #6 · Coaches #6down 5 from last week
The model#1 CFB ZeitgeistSP+ #1 (+30.0) · FPI #1
The marketOhio State by 53vs Kent State · our model 98% Ohio State · a number, not a pick

LastL 23–24 at Texas · Sat Sep 12 · Jeremiah Smith 164 rec yds, 1 TD

Nextvs Kent State · Sat Sep 19 · 12 pm ET · Ohio Stadium · Ohio State by 53 · series 3-0, won the last 3 · Game preview

Updated Tue Sep 15 · through week 2

Key stats — 2026 — FBS rank
Points/game
39.5
Pts allowed/game
13.5
Total yards/gmT-#25 / 138 · 82nd pct
521.5
Rush yards/gm#77 / 138 · 45th pct
165.5
Pass yards/gm#11 / 138 · 92nd pct
356.0
Yards allowed/gm#29 / 138 · 79th pct
250.5
Rush yds allowed/gm#46 / 138 · 67th pct
93.0
SacksT-#80 / 138 · 33rd pct
3
InterceptionsT-#29 / 115 · 61st pct
2
3rd-down conv#61 / 138 · 56th pct
44.0%
All 90 stats
Offense / Defense
Total yards
Team
1043521.5/gm7.73/playT-#25 / 138 · 82nd pct#17 / 69 · 76th pct#4 / 18 · 81st pct#13 / 13 · 8th pct
Opp
501250.5/gm3.63/play#29 / 138 · 79th pct#26 / 69 · 63rd pct#8 / 18 · 58th pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct
Rush yards
Team
331165.5/gm2.45/play#77 / 138 · 45th pct#40 / 69 · 43rd pct#8 / 18 · 58th pct#13 / 13 · 8th pct
Opp
18693.0/gm1.35/play#46 / 138 · 67th pct#36 / 69 · 49th pct#7 / 18 · 64th pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct
Rush carries
Team
6633.0/gmT-#96 / 138 · 28th pctT-#47 / 69 · 29th pctT-#10 / 18 · 42nd pct#13 / 13 · 8th pct
Opp
6432.0/gmT-#45 / 138 · 66th pctT-#31 / 69 · 55th pct#6 / 18 · 69th pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct
Rush TDs
Team
42.0/gmT-#51 / 138 · 54th pctT-#34 / 69 · 44th pctT-#6 / 18 · 61st pct#13 / 13 · 8th pct
Opp
21.0/gmT-#53 / 138 · 50th pctT-#34 / 69 · 36th pctT-#10 / 18 · 33rd pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct
Net pass yards
Team
712356.0/gm5.27/play#11 / 138 · 92nd pct#5 / 69 · 93rd pct#2 / 18 · 92nd pct#13 / 13 · 8th pct
Opp
315157.5/gm2.28/playT-#38 / 138 · 72nd pctT-#29 / 69 · 58th pct#10 / 18 · 47th pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct
Pass attempts
Team
6934.5/gmT-#39 / 138 · 71st pct#19 / 69 · 73rd pct#7 / 18 · 64th pct#13 / 13 · 8th pct
Opp
7437.0/gmT-#112 / 138 · 18th pct#58 / 69 · 17th pct#18 / 18 · 3rd pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct
Completions
Team
4824.0/gmT-#31 / 138 · 76th pctT-#15 / 69 · 78th pct#6 / 18 · 69th pct#13 / 13 · 8th pct
Opp
4321.5/gmT-#106 / 138 · 22nd pctT-#57 / 69 · 17th pct#17 / 18 · 8th pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct
Pass TDs
Team
63.0/gmT-#17 / 138 · 83rd pctT-#14 / 69 · 74th pctT-#5 / 18 · 69th pct#13 / 13 · 8th pct
Opp
10.5/gmT-#13 / 138 · 80th pctT-#11 / 69 · 72nd pctT-#4 / 18 · 75th pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct
Passer rating
Team
179.1179.1#18 / 115 · 85th pct#16 / 59 · 74th pct#4 / 16 · 78th pct#2 / 13 · 92nd pct
Opp
92.992.9#6 / 91 · 94th pct#5 / 41 · 89th pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct
Interceptions thrown
Team
21.0/gmT-#23 / 138 · 74th pctT-#8 / 69 · 78th pctT-#2 / 18 · 86th pct#13 / 13 · 8th pct
Opp
21.0/gmT-#77 / 138 · 33rd pctT-#40 / 69 · 29th pctT-#10 / 18 · 33rd pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct
Sacks (def)
Team
31.5/gmT-#80 / 138 · 33rd pctT-#49 / 69 · 22nd pctT-#11 / 18 · 36th pct#11 / 11 · 9th pct
Opp
42.0/gmT-#74 / 138 · 37th pctT-#42 / 69 · 30th pctT-#13 / 18 · 28th pct#1 / 11 · 100th pct
Tackles for loss
Team
136.5/gmT-#47 / 138 · 64th pctT-#28 / 69 · 57th pctT-#8 / 18 · 56th pct#11 / 11 · 9th pct
Opp
115.5/gmT-#81 / 138 · 34th pctT-#47 / 69 · 27th pctT-#13 / 18 · 25th pct#1 / 11 · 100th pct
First downs
Team
5125.5/gmT-#32 / 138 · 76th pctT-#20 / 69 · 70th pct#5 / 18 · 75th pct#13 / 13 · 8th pct
Opp
3819.0/gmT-#81 / 138 · 40th pct#53 / 69 · 24th pct#14 / 18 · 25th pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct
3rd-down conv
Team
115.5/gmT-#63 / 138 · 52nd pctT-#37 / 69 · 44th pctT-#9 / 18 · 50th pct#13 / 13 · 8th pct
Opp
126.0/gmT-#91 / 138 · 30th pctT-#52 / 69 · 24th pctT-#16 / 18 · 11th pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct
3rd-down att
Team
2512.5/gmT-#72 / 138 · 45th pctT-#34 / 69 · 49th pctT-#9 / 18 · 47th pct#13 / 13 · 8th pct
Opp
3015.0/gmT-#89 / 138 · 31st pctT-#45 / 69 · 29th pct#14 / 18 · 25th pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct
4th-down conv
Team
21.0/gmT-#51 / 138 · 51st pctT-#28 / 69 · 49th pctT-#8 / 18 · 50th pct#13 / 13 · 8th pct
Opp
21.0/gmT-#71 / 138 · 37th pctT-#40 / 69 · 32nd pctT-#11 / 18 · 31st pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct
4th-down att
Team
31.5/gmT-#66 / 138 · 41st pctT-#35 / 69 · 43rd pctT-#11 / 18 · 36th pct#13 / 13 · 8th pct
Opp
42.0/gmT-#80 / 138 · 36th pctT-#42 / 69 · 32nd pctT-#14 / 18 · 17th pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct
Time of possession
Team
60:1030:05/gm#81 / 138 · 42nd pct#40 / 69 · 43rd pct#10 / 18 · 47th pct#13 / 13 · 8th pct
Opp
59:5029:55/gm#72 / 138 · 48th pct#40 / 69 · 43rd pct#10 / 18 · 47th pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct

FBS rankings · 2026 season · all stats vs 136 FBS programs

Player stats — 2026 season
Quarterbacks
Player#GCmp/AttPctYdsY/ATDINTRateZPRQBRAdj ANY/ASack%
+0.57 EPA/play10238 / 5766.7598
#19 FBS
10.54
#36 FBS
1174.47488.310.06.6
Running Backs
Player#GCarYdsAvgTDLongStuff%10+%
+0.09 EPA/play25228157
#54 FBS
5.6165
Receivers
Player#GRecYdsAvgTDLong
Deep Threat · +1.14 EPA/play4216315
#5 FBS
19.73
#9 FBS
48
+0.30 EPA/play32710214.6119

2026 stat leaders · Ohio State

through 2 games

Jeremiah Smith leads Ohio State with 315 receiving yards through 2 games.

1. Jeremiah Smith WR 315 receiving yards
2. Earl Little II S 15 tackles
3. Julian Sayin QB 598 passing yards
4. Payton Pierce LB 12 tackles
5. Bo Jackson RB 157 rushing yards
How They Play · 2025

Ohio State fields an elite methodical, ball-control offense behind an elite, bend-don't-break defense.

Offense
95th pct EPA/play
Tempo
99th pct success, 6th explosiveness
Defense
97th pct EPA allowed
Defensive shape
99th pct at limiting explosive plays

Percentile vs all FBS, based on this season's per-game production. Bar = where this team ranks — right is better.

The Savant Card · Ohio State · 2025

Ohio State reads strongest in success rate (top 1%) and explosive plays allowed (top 1%); the crux lives in explosive plays, where Ohio State sits at the 6th percentile.

offense · strengths lead

EPA / play +0.32
95th
Success Rate +0.53
99th
Explosive Plays +1.15
6th
Rushing EPA +0.13
54th

defense · higher bar = harder to play against

EPA Allowed -0.02
97th
Success Rate Allowed +0.35
94th
Explosive Plays Allowed +1.06
99th
Passing EPA Allowed +0.05
93rd

hidden math · special situations

Passing EPA +0.58
98th
Rushing EPA Allowed -0.07
94th
Elite · 90+Strong · 70+Average · 40-70Concern · 10-40Bottom · <10
Sources · CFBD tier-2 advanced stats · per-game production · 14 games this season · percentiles vs. up to 136 FBS peers

Home-field advantage · Ohio State · 2018–present · FBS opponents

Ohio State is worth +6.0 points more at home than on the road.

Top third of FBS, 80th percentile of 133 programs

94% at home, 86% away against FBS opponents since 2018 (50–3 home, 30–5 away). Interval ±3.8.

95% intervalmodel 2.3 · books ~3Weakest home edge in FBSStrongest

Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge — per-team modelling was tested and did not survive scrutiny (why) — and the books use about 3. Against the closing line, Ohio State has beaten the number by +3.5 more at home than away over 73 games — inside the ±6.7 that many games can resolve. Results here cannot tell the flat number apart from the building, and that is the honest reading of nearly every FBS stadium.

Ohio Stadium seats 102,780 and has averaged 101% full (104,214, 30 games reported). Visitors get here easily: a median 279 miles trip since 2018, the 27th-shortest of 135 FBS venues. Whatever the band above is picking up, it isn't the flight. For the home side it is genuinely home ground: 28% of the 2026 roster (32 of 116 located players) grew up inside 100 miles of the stadium.

Edge = half the gap between average home margin and average road margin, FBS opponents only, non-neutral games since 2018; the interval is 95%. Market line: closing spread, seasons with lines on file. Trip length is straight-line miles from the visiting team's campus to the venue, measured across all 55 home games since 2018.

Home50–3Away30–5Edge+6.0 ±3.8Visitor trip279 mi

More in this tab

Scheme claimsFive specific, testable claims about how this team plays.

Standard downs vs. passing downs

Does Ohio State hold up once the down-and-distance turns against them?

90th percentile success on standard downs, 40th on passing downs — a 50-point gap between the two.

Fragile off scheduleBalanced, both workStruggles even on scheduleStandard-downs reliantOhio StateWeak on standard downsElite on standard downsFalls apart off scheduleHolds up off scheduleHawai'i18th standard · 41st passingUNLV51st standard · 7th passingStanford76th standard · 15th passingEastern Michigan52nd standard · 10th passingSan José State54th standard · 22nd passingNew Mexico State45th standard · 75th passingSacramento State23rd standard · 14th passingOklahoma State41st standard · 49th passingDuke20th standard · 29th passingFlorida State28th standard · 65th passingRutgers30th standard · 71st passingKansas70th standard · 35th passingBoston College27th standard · 56th passingNorfolk State16th standard · 9th passingLouisville96th standard · 70th passingMissouri36th standard · 85th passingMemphis69th standard · 65th passingGeorgia Southern24th standard · 45th passingOle Miss94th standard · 50th passingJacksonville State65th standard · 82nd passingNorth Dakota State86th standard · 27th passingArizona92nd standard · 86th passingUSC97th standard · 99th passingWake Forest56th standard · 97th passingTCU93rd standard · 8th passingDelaware70th standard · 31st passingUAB65th standard · 81st passingMichigan State62nd standard · 29th passingSouth Florida91st standard · 52nd passingFlorida International46th standard · 43rd passingNavy98th standard · 59th passingWisconsin13th standard · 18th passingOregon State10th standard · 38th passingSyracuse48th standard · 64th passingOhio State90th standard · 40th passingBall State12th standard · 24th passingPittsburgh30th standard · 76th passingColorado35th standard · 77th passingGeorgia Tech58th standard · 44th passingAuburn75th standard · 55th passingBaylor40th standard · 96th passingNorth Texas49th standard · 68th passingApp State44th standard · 90th passingIowa State4th standard · 23rd passingUTSA99th standard · 29th passingArkansas60th standard · 80th passingBoise State58th standard · 46th passingOregon35th standard · 33rd passingTulsa56th standard · 1st passingTulane31st standard · 2nd passingPurdue83rd standard · 88th passingMiddle Tennessee87th standard · 68th passingVanderbilt80th standard · 12th passingSan Diego State4th standard · 40th passingLSU33rd standard · 98th passingClemson1st standard · 19th passingCentral Michigan16th standard · 6th passingTexas Tech88th standard · 48th passingMichigan2nd standard · 62nd passingWestern Michigan39th standard · 20th passingOhio38th standard · 17th passingBuffalo7th standard · 14th passingTexas72nd standard · 94th passingCoastal Carolina61st standard · 52nd passingColorado State82nd standard · 91st passingWyoming65th standard · 36th passingTexas A&M85th standard · 72nd passingLiberty14th standard · 59th passingFlorida Atlantic43rd standard · 87th passingLouisiana19th standard · 92nd passingSouth Alabama50th standard · 73rd passingTroy22nd standard · 59th passingSam Houston78th standard · 61st passingNevada77th standard · 52nd passingWestern Kentucky25th standard · 34th passingWashington State8th standard · 3rd passingWashington81st standard · 4th passingCalifornia9th standard · 25th passingCharlotte73rd standard · 83rd passingTennessee65th standard · 78th passingUtah State4th standard · 93rd passing
Source CFB Zeitgeist · advanced team stats, Connelly success-rate definition
View all FBS teams as a table
TeamStandard-downs percentilePassing-downs percentile
App State44th90th
Arizona92nd86th
Arkansas60th80th
Auburn75th55th
Ball State12th24th
Baylor40th96th
Boise State58th46th
Boston College27th56th
Buffalo7th14th
California9th25th
Central Michigan16th6th
Charlotte73rd83rd
Clemson1st19th
Coastal Carolina61st52nd
Colorado35th77th
Colorado State82nd91st
Delaware70th31st
Duke20th29th
Eastern Michigan52nd10th
Florida Atlantic43rd87th
Florida International46th43rd
Florida State28th65th
Georgia Southern24th45th
Georgia Tech58th44th
Hawai'i18th41st
Iowa State4th23rd
Jacksonville State65th82nd
Kansas70th35th
LSU33rd98th
Liberty14th59th
Louisiana19th92nd
Louisville96th70th
Memphis69th65th
Michigan2nd62nd
Michigan State62nd29th
Middle Tennessee87th68th
Missouri36th85th
Navy98th59th
Nevada77th52nd
New Mexico State45th75th
Norfolk State16th9th
North Dakota State86th27th
North Texas49th68th
Ohio38th17th
Ohio State90th40th
Oklahoma State41st49th
Ole Miss94th50th
Oregon35th33rd
Oregon State10th38th
Pittsburgh30th76th
Purdue83rd88th
Rutgers30th71st
Sacramento State23rd14th
Sam Houston78th61st
San Diego State4th40th
San José State54th22nd
South Alabama50th73rd
South Florida91st52nd
Stanford76th15th
Syracuse48th64th
TCU93rd8th
Tennessee65th78th
Texas72nd94th
Texas A&M85th72nd
Texas Tech88th48th
Troy22nd59th
Tulane31st2nd
Tulsa56th1st
UAB65th81st
UNLV51st7th
USC97th99th
UTSA99th29th
Utah State4th93rd
Vanderbilt80th12th
Wake Forest56th97th
Washington81st4th
Washington State8th3rd
Western Kentucky25th34th
Western Michigan39th20th
Wisconsin13th18th
Wyoming65th36th
Tendency driftHow this coordinator's calls have drifted since arriving.

Season by season

How Ohio State’s current staff calls plays, year over year

Defense: Matt Patricia / co-Tim Walton (2025–2026)
1st-down pass rate
2025: 46% → 2026: 41% · 5-pt range · #174 of 203 · less than most
Red-zone pass rate
2025: 37% → 2026: 52% · 15-pt range · #94 of 200 · a typical amount
Pass defense by zoneThe part of the field opponents keep attacking.

Pass-depth identity

What this team throws, and gives up, by depth.

On short throws (≤19 air yards), Ohio State’s defense allows a completion rate below the FBS mean (65.2% vs 65.2% league-wide, shrunk toward the mean for its 66-play sample) — mid-pack, 10 of 18 qualifying defenses.

We won’t show a deep-ball (20+ air yards) leaderboard here, on either side of the ball: even a full season of charted plays gives most teams well under 30 deep attempts — too thin to tell a real tendency from noise, so we won’t guess. Same refusal for yards-after-catch allowed and where a team’s attempts land by zone: both measured and both came back statistically indistinguishable from season-to-season noise.

Screened 59 claims, 59 survived · 2025+ only, charted plays (parse_status='complete'); n=66 short-zone plays, raw rate 65.2%
RatingsWhere the public rating systems put this team.

Model Consensus

Where the Models Rank Ohio State

CFB Zeitgeist

#1

+15.2

SP+

#1

+30.0

FPI

#1

+30.4

Elo

#3

1983

The national models put Ohio State between 1st and 3rd nationally — CFB Zeitgeist agrees, slotting them 1st.

National rank of 138 FBS teams · 2026 season. SP+/FPI/SRS published; Elo & CFB Zeitgeist ranked by rating.

Comparable teamsPrograms built like this one — tier, prestige band, kind of fanbase, roster size. Not a stat match.

Most similar programs · Ohio State

Reads like

Matched on how the programs are built — tier, prestige band, kind of fanbase, conference, voice and roster size — not on this season's stats. A calibration, not a prediction.

ConditionsThe weather and altitude visitors have to deal with.
Venue texture

61°F average kickoff temp; 6% of games had measurable precipitation; 9 mph average wind.

Based on 84 home games with weather data.

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