CFB Zeitgeist Score
88
All-Conference in the position cohort. Carried by yards / att at the 97th percentile.
Fernando Mendoza
Fernando Mendoza arrives at Indiana with a new fit to prove and an old chapter behind him.
9.3 Y/A · QUALIFIED QBs
No.5
#5 YPA at 9.30 among qualified QBs.
AI narrative · updated 2026-06-22 · compiled from CFB Zeitgeist data
Where He Ended Up · NFL
Las Vegas2026 NFL rookie season
QB · INDIANA · BIG TEN
CFB Zeitgeist Score
88
All-Conference in the position cohort. Carried by yards / att at the 97th percentile.
Heisman Heat
Awaiting
Not on the live Heisman board this week.
Fan Belief
Awaiting
Player-specific FI not yet ingested. Falls back to team mood below.
Respect Gap
Awaiting
Coming online with player-level FI.
Reality Gap
Awaiting
Coming online with player-level FI.
ACCOLADE PROBABILITY
Heisman
—
TOP QB AWARD
Davey O'Brien
—
CONSENSUS
All-American
—
Player Standing · 17 rungs
Tier 5 · ApexPosition-of-the-Year / Heisman winner. The trophy is in the case.
“Indiana QB Fernando Mendoza announces intention to enter 2026 NFL Draft”
Career arc · Season-by-season Standing
3 seasons on the ladder
2023
California · QB
—
2024
California · QB
R09 · All-Conference HM / 2nd team
Recognized
2025
Indiana · QB
R13 · Consensus All-American
Elite
Development Trajectory · passing yards
2023–2025Up 107% from first season to most-recent.
Career Arc
The durable bio layer: position, size, hometown, and roster role.
How big the prospect was before college, and whether the later career arc beat that expectation.
| Class | Profile | Context |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 2-star | 0.7933 | No. 2149 recruit | HighSchool | California |
Portal movement changes role, context, and perception. This keeps that path in one place.
| Season | Move | Context |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 | California -> Indiana | 4-star | 0.9300 | Immediate |
Where he sits right now, where the season forecast points, and whether the candidacy is actually trophy-live.
Heisman Futures
Not yet listed on major futures markets.
Achievements
Selector Grid · 2025
Named Consensus All-American — recognized on 3+ of the 5 NCAA-recognized selector lists.
NIL · Recruiting · NFL Draft
Market value, pedigree & pro outcome
Recruit stars
★★☆☆☆
to California
Composite
0.7933
#2149 national
NFL Draft
2026 · Rd 1, Pick 1
#1 overall · Las Vegas
Today’s Hot-Take
+217.840 total weighted-epa passing: #5 of 58 P4 + Notre Dame QBs (93th percentile).
Anti-Take
EFFICIENCYEfficiency rewards selectivity. Volume-adjusted rank in the same cohort almost always looks looser — call it elite, not unique.
Fan sentiment · Season 2025 conversation window
Belief Meter
56
Quietly Bullish
Top Take
“”
Trajectory
Rival Radar
2025 Signature · 2025 season
+0.560
EPA
P4 + Notre Dame QBs, min 250 dropbacks
Why it matters
#4 of 58 P4 + Notre Dame QBs by weighted EPA per dropback (min 250 dropbacks) — +0.560 EPA/play.
Vs cohort
HIGH · n=389 cohort 58
Signature Moment
Week 9 vs UCLA — 45 ypc
Result W 56-6
The week the volume broke through — put up 45 yds vs UCLA.
Season Pace · Projection
Where the passing totals stand
✓ Hit 3,000-yard season · finished with 3,535.
✓ Hit 25 passing TDs · finished with 41.
✓ Hit 30 passing TDs · finished with 41.
✓ Hit 35 passing TDs · finished with 41.
The fast read on the thing that makes this player more than a generic stat line.
The unusual part of Fernando Mendoza's case is that the production comes in two channels, not one. For Indiana, he has 3,535 passing yards and 41 touchdown passes, but he also adds 276 rushing yards and 7 rushing scores. That kind of dual-threat load tends to create a more resilient Heisman case because the offense can tilt the game in multiple ways.
Traditional stats first. Advanced context underneath.
Last season
2025 season snapshot | final
30-second read
High-volume passer | Highly efficient | Vertical threat against FBS QB peers. The quickest read is whether the profile wins on volume, efficiency, explosiveness, or rushing value.
2025 season snapshot | final
Passing Efficiency
Passing Production
Rushing
Game Log · Week-by-week
2025 season · 16 games
| Wk | Opp | CMP/ATT | YDS | TD | INT | YPA | QBR | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | W 27-14vs Old Dominion | 18/31 | 193 | 0 | 0 | 6.2 | 66.9 | 5 TD passes |
| Wk 2 | W 56-9vs Kennesaw State | 18/25 | 245 | 4 | 0 | 9.8 | 66.6 | 4 TD passes |
| Wk 3 | W 73-0vs Indiana State | 19/20 | 270 | 5 | 0 | 13.5 | 93.4 | 5 TD passes |
| Wk 4 | W 63-10vs Illinois | 21/23 | 267 | 5 | 0 | 11.6 | 93.6 | 5 TD passes |
| Wk 5 | W 20-15@ Iowa | 13/23 | 233 | 2 | 1 | 10.1 | 68.5 | |
| Wk 7 | W 30-20@ Oregon | 20/31 | 215 | 1 | 1 | 6.9 | 88.6 | |
| Wk 8 | W 38-13vs Michigan State | 24/28 | 332 | 4 | 0 | 11.9 | 97.1 | Season-high 332 yds |
| Wk 9 | W 56-6vs UCLA | 15/22 | 168 | 3 | 1 | 7.6 | 91.3 | 3 TD passes |
| Wk 10 | W 55-10@ Maryland | 14/21 | 201 | 1 | 1 | 9.6 | 96.1 | |
| Wk 11 | W 27-24@ Penn State | 19/30 | 218 | 1 | 1 | 7.3 | 75.0 | |
| Wk 12 | W 31-7vs Wisconsin | 22/24 | 299 | 4 | 0 | 12.5 | 91.5 | 4 TD passes |
| Wk 14 | W 56-3@ Purdue | 8/15 | 117 | 2 | 0 | 7.8 | 69.4 | |
| Wk 15 | W 13-10@ Ohio State | 15/23 | 222 | 1 | 1 | 9.7 | 90.2 | |
| Bowl | W 38-3vs Alabama | 14/16 | 192 | 3 | 0 | 12.0 | 96.7 | |
| Bowl | W 56-22vs Oregon | 17/20 | 177 | 5 | 0 | 8.9 | 98.5 | |
| Bowl | W 27-21vs Miami | 16/27 | 186 | 0 | 0 | 6.9 | 90.6 | |
| Total | 273/379 | 3535 | 41 | 6 | 9.5 | 85.9 |
Traditional history
Season rows up top, career context at the bottom.
Season context · Team result + system
| Season | Team | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Indiana | 273 | 379 | 72.0% | 3,535 | 9.3 | 41 | 6 | 182.9 | -- | -- |
| 2024 | California | 265 | 386 | 68.7% | 3,004 | 7.8 | 16 | 6 | 144.6 | -- | -- |
| 2023 | California | 153 | 243 | 63.0% | 1,708 | 7.0 | 14 | 10 | 132.8 | -- | -- |
| Career | 3 loaded seasons | 691 | 1,008 | 68.6% | 8,247 | 8.2 | 71 | 22 | 156.2 | -- | -- |
| Season | Team | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Indiana | 90 | 276 | 3.1 | 7 | -- |
| 2024 | California | 87 | 105 | 1.2 | 2 | -- |
| 2023 | California | 49 | 86 | 1.8 | 2 | -- |
| Career | 3 loaded seasons | 226 | 467 | 2.1 | 11 | -- |
Advanced metrics second
Usage, value, and opponent-adjusted context.
Opponent-adjusted passing value. Positive numbers mean the quarterback is adding more value through the air than a neutral peer would in the same environment.
How much of the offense runs through the quarterback once passing and rushing responsibility are blended together.
Every percentile is compared against players at the same position and level, so an FBS quarterback is judged against FBS quarterbacks, not the whole sport.
The top tables stick to the stats fans already know from broadcasts and box scores. Advanced context is pushed underneath instead of replacing the basics.
| Group | Metric | Value | Rank | Pct | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Passing | Passing yards | 3,535 | #15/382 | 96th pct | Volumevs FBS QB |
| Passing | Pass TD | 41 | #1/407 | 100th pct | Scoringvs FBS QB |
| Passing | Completions | 273 | #20/383 | 95th pct | Volumevs FBS QB |
| Passing | Completion % | 72.0% | #54/383 | 86th pct | Efficiencyvs FBS QB |
| Passing | Yards / attempt | 9.3 | #42/382 | 89th pct | Efficiencyvs FBS QB |
| Rushing | Rushing yards | 276 | #66/408 | 84th pct | Volumevs FBS QB |
| Value | Passing WEPA | +0.56 | #4/200 | 98th pct | Opponent-adjusted passing value | 389 weighted playsvs FBS QB |
| Usage | Role share | 42.2% | #136/428 | 68th pct | Share of team offensevs FBS QB |
| Passing | Attempts | 379 | #38/407 | 91st pct | Volumevs FBS QB |
| Passing | Interceptions | 6 | #294/407 | 28th pct | Turnoversvs FBS QB |
| Rushing | Carries | 90 | #63/408 | 85th pct | Volumevs FBS QB |
| Rushing | Rushing LONG | 21 | #167/391 | 58th pct | Metricvs FBS QB |
| Rushing | Rush TD | 7 | #43/408 | 90th pct | Scoringvs FBS QB |
| Rushing | Yards / carry | 3.1 | #180/407 | 56th pct | Efficiencyvs FBS QB |
| Usage | Pass share | 92.2% | #46/428 | 89th pct | Air-game usagevs FBS QB |
| Usage | 3rd-down usage | 59.1% | #109/428 | 75th pct | Money-down loadvs FBS QB |
| Usage | Passing-down usage | 56.8% | #122/428 | 72nd pct | Known-passing sharevs FBS QB |
| Usage | 2nd-down usage | 40.3% | #140/428 | 68th pct | Middle-down loadvs FBS QB |
| Usage | Standard-down usage | 37.6% | #124/428 | 71st pct | Base-situation sharevs FBS QB |
| Usage | 1st-down usage | 36.8% | #125/428 | 71st pct | Early-down loadvs FBS QB |
| Usage | Rush share | 9.5% | #165/428 | 62nd pct | Ground-game usagevs FBS QB |
| Value | Rushing WEPA | +0.39 | #12/140 | 92nd pct | Opponent-adjusted rushing value | 57 weighted playsvs FBS QB |
| Ball Security | Fumbles lost | 0 | #1/258 | 100th pct | Turnoversvs FBS QB |
Universal 17-step ladder. Tier pills below; accolade streams nested.
CONSENSUS AA
CONSENSUS AA · Rung 13 of 16
Why he’s here
Consensus All-American — 1st team on at least three of the five NCAA selectors.
What moves him up
Sweep the remaining selectors for Unanimous status.
What moves him down
Fall below three selectors and this returns to plain All-American.
Accolade streams
Recognized on the Manning list (1).
Splits · Per-game
2025 season · 16 games
Home vs Road
| YDS/g | TD/g | YPA | INT/g | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home10g | 233 | 3.3 | 10.1 | 0.1 |
| Road6g | 201 | 1.3 | 8.6 | 0.8 |
Win vs Loss
| YDS/g | TD/g | YPA | INT/g | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wins16g | 221 | 2.6 | 9.5 | 0.4 |
First half vs Second half
| YDS/g | TD/g | YPA | INT/g | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Weeks 1-79g | 220 | 2.8 | 9.5 | 0.2 |
| Weeks 8+7g | 222 | 2.3 | 9.5 | 0.6 |
Pocket and defense-quality (clean vs. pressure) splits are coming soon.
Savant · Box-rate percentiles
Where this profile ranks vs the QB cohort
Elite: pass tds (99th). Strength: completion % (98th).
Percentiles versus same-position peers with enough snaps this season, based on box-score rates.
Pass Profile · Completion depth (PBP)
Where the throws are landing
Short
0–9 ydsMiddle
10–19 ydsDeep
20+ ydsOverall 72.6% completion on 179 attempts · 29 deep completions averaging 30.2 yds.
Advanced Savant · QB · 2025
Elite: EPA / dropback.
Opponent-adjusted advanced metrics with a cohort filter.
Peer Comparator · Fingerprint match
Three closest profiles by box-rate percentile
Closest peers by overall box-score percentile profile at the same position.
Player DNA
High-percentage passer who protects the ball. Loses the matchup on improvisation.
His 2025 production profile sits closest to Kurtis Rourke’s 2024 season.
Kurtis Rourke
Hendon Hooker
Hendon Hooker
Zach Wilson
Kurtis Rourke
Matches Kurtis on
Differs from Kurtis on
Through 3 college seasons, his career arc tracks closest to Eli Peters’s path through Toledo.
Eli Peters
Joey Labas
Darian Mensah
Desmond Ridder
Aidan O'Connell
Matches Eli on
As a junior, his production profile tracks closest to Hendon Hooker's junior season at Tennessee (2022).
Hendon Hooker
Kurtis Rourke
Grayson McCall
C.J. Stroud
Dante Moore
Matches Hendon on
Differs from Hendon on
Supporting Cast · Scheme
Staff and system around the player
Head Coach
Curt Cignetti
Pass share
38.7%
404 pass / 641 run
Plays / game
65.3
16 games
OL sack rate (allowed)
7.3%
275 dropbacks · PBP
Scheme: Run-heavy.
Coaching Lineage · 2023–2025
2 coachesCoaching transition mid-career: Tom Allen → Curt Cignetti. Worth noting in scheme + development context.
Off-field context — switch tabs to drill into recruit profile, transfer arc, or roster timeline.
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No fields populated yet.
Trophy Case · Confirmed honors
What the selectors said
ALL-AMERICA · CONSENSUS
Consensus AA (2025)
9 first-team selectors
POSITION AWARDS
Walter Camp, Maxwell, Manning
2025 season
ALL-CONFERENCE · 1ST TEAM
All-Conf 1st team (2025)
All-Big Ten
Every honor on the ledger, broken out by stream and selector.
Won the award in 2025. This should always live at the front of the card's trophy case.
Invited into the official finalist tier in 2025. That belongs in the trophy case, not buried in a table.
National selector recognition is one of the strongest non-Heisman signals on a player card and should sit near the top of the showcase.
Conference-level recognition helps anchor whether a player is merely statistically loud or actually viewed as elite within his competitive lane.
Even lower-volume award recognition is worth preserving because it marks seasons where a player entered the national conversation.
Season-end distinction and week-by-week recognition on one timeline.
| Season | Honor | Scope | Team / Selector | Context |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Walter Camp | position_award | Indiana | Walter Camp | winner | QB |
| 2025 | Maxwell | position_award | Indiana | Maxwell | winner | QB |
| 2025 | Manning | position_award | Indiana | Manning | winner | QB |
| 2025 | Davey O'Brien | position_award | Indiana | Davey O'Brien | winner | QB |
| 2025 | All-America (USA Today) | all_america | USA Today | QB |
| 2025 | All-America (SI) | all_america | SI | QB |
| 2025 | All-America (PFF) | all_america | PFF | QB |
| 2025 | All-America (ESPN) | all_america | ESPN | QB |
| 2025 | All-America (The Athletic) | all_america | The Athletic | QB |
| 2025 | All-America (WCFF) | all_america | WCFF | QB |
| 2025 | All-America (FWAA) | all_america | FWAA | QB |
| 2025 | All-America (AP) | all_america | AP | QB |
| 2025 | All-America (AFCA) | all_america | AFCA | QB |
| 2025 | All-America (Consensus) | all_america | Indiana | Consensus | -- |
| 2025 | All-Big Ten | all_conference | Indiana | Big Ten | QB |
| 2025 | All-Big Ten | all_conference | Indiana | Big Ten | GRIE |
| 2025 | All-Big Ten | all_conference | Indiana | Big Ten | GRAH |
| 2025 | All-Big Ten | all_conference | Big Ten | -- |
| 2024 | All-ACC | all_conference | California | ACC | -- |
Modeled rank and official finish by season.
| Season | Team | Role | Latest Model | Forecast | Win | Finalist | Official Finish | Points | Context |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Indiana | QB3 | -- | -- | -- | -- | Winner | 2362 | Big Ten | Won the trophy |
| 2024 | California | QB3 | #45 | #53 | 0.0% | 0.0% | -- | -- | W16 snapshot | ACC |
| 2023 | California | QB3 | #233 | #335 | 0.0% | 0.0% | -- | -- | W19 snapshot | Pac-12 |
| 2022 | California | QB3 | #1721 | #1897 | 0.0% | 0.0% | -- | -- | W20 snapshot | Pac-12 |
Team, conference, and class by season.
| Season | Team | Conference | Pos | Class | Bio |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Indiana | Big Ten | QB | 3 | No. 15 | 6-5 | 225 lb | Miami, FL |
| 2024 | California | ACC | QB | 3 | No. 15 | 6-5 | 225 lb | Miami, FL |
| 2023 | California | Pac-12 | QB | 3 | No. 15 | 6-5 | 225 lb | Miami, FL |
| 2022 | California | Pac-12 | QB | 3 | No. 15 | 6-5 | 225 lb | Miami, FL |