The Zeitgeist List · coaching

Curt Cignetti

Followed Tom Allen. Curt Cignetti raised Indiana from Regional Program I to Power Program II.

The ascent
46–6
2022–now · 2 stints
← all coaches

In his own words

I thought he played with a lot of confidence today
FOX Sports · · the day of Indiana's 2026 opener
I'd like to play Notre Dame. They ought to come to our place twice, and we'll go up there once, since they're not in a conference
FOX Sports
Yesterday morning we flew in here, right?
FOX Sports
(Cignetti was) really focused on winning and really focused on establishing and maintaining a culture of winning
Barnett · On3
(Cignetti was) really focused on winning and really focused on establishing and maintaining a culture of winning
Barnett · On3
I started out being a Cignetti doubter, but he has clearly proven everybody wrong
Feazel · FOX Sports

Career arc

His real stature score, season by season, across every program he’s coached — so a stretch that stays in one tier the whole way can still climb or sink on the line, not just flatten out. Node color marks the tier reached. Which program a stretch belongs to is carried by the shaded lane behind it.

Stature score reached, by season of his head-coaching careerJAMES MADISONINDIANAPower Programperennial contenderNational Programrespectable, streakyRegional Programthe building-block levelJames Madison, 2022: 8-3, Regional Program I2022James Madison, 2023: 11-1, Regional Program I2023+0.0Indiana, 2024: 11-2, National Program III2024Indiana, 2025: 16-0, Power Program II2025Indiana, 2026: in progress, Power Program II2026+26.6One point per coached season, in career order; dashed segments are program changes — spacing is not proportional to calendar time

Reached Power Program in his 4th career season — faster than 37% of the 395 FBS coaches who have ever reached Power Program (rank #215 of 395 by seasons-to-arrival).

James Madison, 2 seasons
+0.0
Regional Program I → Regional Program I.
Indiana, 3 seasons (active)
+26.6
National Program III → Power Program II.

Style position and drift

Where each stint’s offense sat between run-first and pass-first, and how far it moved from one season to the next. The band is that stint’s real season-to-season range, not a fixed-width box.

30%40%50%James Madison2022–2023▲ 8.5ptIndiana2024–2026▼ 13.1pt
Pass rate — share of offensive plays that were pass attemptsfirst covered seasonmost recent covered seasonfull season-to-season range (3+ covered seasons)
How much that is, against every other stint

Season-to-season pass-rate range for all 258 FBS coaching stints with at least three covered seasons, 2014–2025.

Typical stint7.010.2 median13.9middle half of all stints
Indiana13.1pt#74 of 258 · a typical amount

The big-game ledger

How he does in the games that matter most — rivalry record, performance broken out by real opponent tier, one-score games, and his toughest historical matchup.

3–0 against his rivals.

Rivalry record
3–0
100.0% · 2 rivals
One-score games
6–1
85.7% · margin ≤8
vs. Blue Blood or better
3–1
75.0%
Buyout owed
$56,700,000 (est.)
bigger than 92% of FBS buyouts
Rivalry ledger
Purdue2–0100%
Old Dominion1–0100%
Performance by opponent class
Blue Blood
3–1 75.0%
Power Program
7–1 87.5%
National Program
8–1 88.9%
Regional Program
11–1 91.7%

His own effect, isolated

A statistical estimate of this coach’s contribution to team performance, separated from that season’s roster talent, returning production, and his coordinators — pooled across his whole head-coaching career.

Offense marginal impact
+0.86
#6 of 319 · more than most
Defense marginal impact
+0.54
#8 of 325 · more than most

Model fit as of 2026-09-04.

What fans are saying

Fan claims · every quote verified verbatim

recruiting resultOne fan's take

One fan believes Curt Cignetti has achieved success despite poor recruiting and unconventional strategies

I would argue Indiana recruiting sucks cause even though he committed they’re still ranked 30th but they just won a natty. I simply don’t know what to say lol. Recruiting matters but somehow Cignetti go away with it. Idk if it’s sustainable long term but we’ll see.

Based on 1 comment from 1 poster across 1 thread · Jul 18, 2026 · via ESPN College Football

Show all 2
program directionOne fan's take that season

One fan believes Curt Cignetti has improved Indiana's win-loss record significantly

Would be remarkable for an Indiana program that had never even had one double digit win season in over 100 years of football till he showed up.

Based on 2 comments across 1 thread · Aug 27, 2026

Coaching career

2024–now
Indianabuilder🏆 coach of the year ×2
Regional Program I → Power Program II
Curt Cignetti raised Indiana from Regional Program I to Power Program II.

1st-best Indiana tenure of 16 by the numbers.

Recruiter or developer?

Outperforms his recruiting talent, on both sides of the ball.

Offense vs. talent
+40.0 pts
#6 of 208 · more than most
Defense vs. talent
+44.9 pts
#2 of 208 · more than most
Recruiting talent is team-wide (no offense/defense split exists in the source data) -- both sides are scored against the same talent input, only the outcome is side-specific.

Followed Tom Allen (2016–2023).

Season202420252026Trend
Record & result
Record11–216–00–0
PostseasonCFP lossCHAMPION
Recruiting rank#65#47#29
Style — pass rate
Pass rate42.738.429.6
Coordinators
OCMike Shanahan / Tino SunseriMike Shanahan / Chandler WhitmerMike Shanahan / Tino Sunseri
DCBryant HainesBryant HainesBryant Haines
Outcome — opponent-adjusted efficiency percentile
Offense8210093
Defense959624
Tendencies — play-by-play, neutral script (2021+ only)
1st-down pass%41.243.832.3
Red-zone pass%38.235.825.0
4th-down go%opp. territory45.830.8
Roster construction · portal era

A portal-built roster.

Portal arrivals
70
3.1★ avg rating
Portal departures
86
left via the portal
Net portal flow
-16
#30 of 187 FBS stints
Notable portal arrivals with a modeled NIL value
Josh Hoover On3 modeled · $4,000,000Nick Marsh On3 modeled · $1,000,000
On3’s modeled estimate (social reach / exposure), not money actually paid — shown per player, never totaled.
Who they bring in

Typical size for position, once adjusted for position mix.

Recruits older, more experienced transfers than most.

Avg. size (raw)
6′2″, 235 lbs
across 61 of 70 arrivals — unadjusted for position mix
Size vs. position-typical
+5.5 lbs
#77 of 255 · a typical amount
Avg. class year
Sr
#10 of 255 · more than most
Top states: VA (11), GA (6), TX (4), MD (4), IN (3)
Who won the portal our read
Talent added
62.7
position-weighted
Talent lost
58.6
position-weighted
Net
+4.1
arrivals minus departures
Best addition: Fernando Mendoza (QB) from California
Biggest loss: Brendan Sorsby (QB) to Cincinnati
Position-value-weighted (QB/CB weighted highest, depth-decayed within each position) — the same scoring engine as the Portal Heat feed, not a separate grade.
Does the system survive a coordinator change?
OC: Mike Shanahan / co-Tino Sunseri → Mike Shanahan / co-Chandler Whitmer · 2025
82nd pct100th pct0th100th
1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.
1st-down pass rate: 41.2% → 43.8% (+2.5 pts)
Confound, shown not hidden: only 25% of offensive production returned the year the coordinator changed — the roster turned over at the same time, not just the play-caller.
OC: Mike Shanahan / co-Chandler Whitmer → Mike Shanahan / co-Tino Sunseri · 2026
100th pct93rd pct0th100th
1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.
1st-down pass rate: 43.8% → 32.3% (-11.5 pts)
Confound, shown not hidden: only 17% of offensive production returned the year the coordinator changed — the roster turned over at the same time, not just the play-caller.
Roster size, by position
Skill positions · usage-weighted (real participation)
Quarterback
220 lbs
6′5″ avg · #155 of 767 · more than most
Running back
209 lbs
5′10″ avg · #337 of 791 · a typical amount
Wide receiver
199 lbs
6′1″ avg · #147 of 791 · more than most
Tight end
249 lbs
6′4″ avg · #231 of 731 · a typical amount
Trench & secondary · recruited roster, not confirmed starters
Interior line
302 lbs
6′5″ avg · #656 of 779 · less than most
D-line
267 lbs
6′3″ avg · #697 of 753 · less than most
Linebacker
221 lbs
6′1″ avg · #683 of 772 · less than most
Cornerback
185 lbs
6′0″ avg · #622 of 771 · less than most
Offensive-line size is one undifferentiated bucket — the source data almost never distinguishes tackle from guard from center, so we can't split them out.
Where the roster comes from, by position
Buys LS via the portal
100%
#1 of 12 stints
Buys Running back via the portal
73%
#28 of 208 stints
Postseason detail2024: Lost to Notre Dame 17–27 College Football Playoff First Round Game Presented by Allstate2025: Beat Alabama 38–3 College Football Playoff Quarterfinal at the Rose Bowl Presented by Prudential2025: Beat Oregon 56–22 College Football Playoff Semifinal at the Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl2025: Beat Miami 27–21 College Football Playoff National Championship Presented by AT&T

10 NFL Draft picks: CJ West (2025), Kurtis Rourke (2025), Fernando Mendoza (2026), Omar Cooper Jr. (2026), D'Angelo Ponds (2026), Kaelon Black (2026), Elijah Sarratt (2026), Riley Nowakowski (2026) + 2 more

Coach of the Year: Big Ten Dave McClain Coach of the Year/Big Ten Hayes–Schembechler Coach of the Year (2024), Big Ten Dave McClain Coach of the Year/Big Ten Hayes–Schembechler Coach of the Year (2025)

10 player-seasons honored (All-America / national award): Aiden Fisher (2024), Carter Smith (2025), Aiden Fisher (2025), D'Angelo Ponds (2025), Fernando Mendoza (2025), Louis Moore (2025), Rolijah Hardy (2026), Carter Smith (2026) + 2 more

AI Narratives — “Indiana's 16-0 Run Defies Roster Attrition” and 18 more on the team page.

27–2
2022–2023
James Madisoncaretaker🏆 coach of the year
Regional Program I
Curt Cignetti held James Madison at Regional Program I for 2 seasons.

3rd-best James Madison tenure of 4 by the numbers.

Recruiter or developer?

Outperforms his recruiting talent, on both sides of the ball.

Offense vs. talent
+30.2 pts
#14 of 208 · more than most
Defense vs. talent
+61.8 pts
#1 of 208 · more than most
Recruiting talent is team-wide (no offense/defense split exists in the source data) -- both sides are scored against the same talent input, only the outcome is side-specific.

Succeeded by Bob Chesney (2024–2025).

Season20222023Trend
Record & result
Record8–30–1
PostseasonL bowl
Recruiting rank#132#133
Style — pass rate
Pass rate40.649.1
Coordinators
OCMike ShanahanMike Shanahan
DCBryant HainesBryant Haines
Outcome — opponent-adjusted efficiency percentile
Offense4376
Defense9689
Tendencies — play-by-play, neutral script (2021+ only)
1st-down pass%42.848.6
Red-zone pass%34.544.9
4th-down go%opp. territory35.722.4
Roster construction · portal era

Barely touches the portal — recruits and develops his own.

Portal arrivals
10
3.0★ avg rating
Portal departures
7
left via the portal
Net portal flow
+3
#167 of 187 FBS stints
Who they bring in

Brings in smaller-than-position-typical players than most.

Recruits older, more experienced transfers than most.

Avg. size (raw)
6′1″, 205 lbs
across 8 of 10 arrivals — unadjusted for position mix
Size vs. position-typical
+0.8 lbs
#217 of 255 · less than most
Avg. class year
Sr
#46 of 255 · more than most
Top states: FL (3), VA (2), MS (1), PA (1), GA (1)
Who won the portal our read
Talent added
38.7
position-weighted
Talent lost
25.0
position-weighted
Net
+13.7
arrivals minus departures
Best addition: Todd Centeio (QB) from Colorado State
Biggest loss: Antonio Webb Jr. (CB) to the portal
Position-value-weighted (QB/CB weighted highest, depth-decayed within each position) — the same scoring engine as the Portal Heat feed, not a separate grade.
Roster size, by position
Skill positions · usage-weighted (real participation)
Quarterback
210 lbs
6′0″ avg · #464 of 767 · a typical amount
Running back
208 lbs
5′10″ avg · #378 of 791 · a typical amount
Wide receiver
193 lbs
6′0″ avg · #402 of 791 · a typical amount
Tight end
253 lbs
6′4″ avg · #110 of 731 · more than most
Where the roster comes from, by position
Buys Quarterback via the portal
75%
#5 of 206 stints
Grows Interior line from high school
100%
#198 of 224 stints
Grows Cornerback from high school
75%
#200 of 236 stints
Postseason detail2023: Lost to Air Force 21–31 Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl

Coach of the Year: Sun Belt Coach of the Year (2023)

1 player-season honored (All-America / national award): Jalen Green (2023)

19–4

Defining games during this era

2024 12-team CFP first-round · Notre Dame 27, Indiana 17