Playoff odds33% → 42%CFB Zeitgeist forecast, before and after
Saturday: vs. USCUSC
No game this week · Sat Nov 14, time to be announced · USCUSC is 7-2 · First meeting between Cignetti and Lincoln Riley as head coaches · Indiana’s chance to win: 76% (the site’s model)
Having so many high SEC teams for schedule strength but also Indiana at No. 4 makes no sense. It's one or the other.
[https://fox59.com/sports/big-10-sports/indiana-notre-dame-cancel-football-series-scheduled-for-2030-31-reports/amp/](https://fox59.com/sports/big-10-sports/indiana-notre-dame-cancel-football-series-scheduled-for-2030-31-reports/amp/)
Again, if Indiana cancelled it then why wasn’t there a cancellation fee?
Has anyone taken a class taught by Ningchuan Zhang? He's a postdoc, so I can't find anything on him on Rate My Professor. He's teaching M312 next semester, but if anyone has taken any class taught by him, do you have anything that would be important to know? I have a choice between him and Ji-Ping Sha, who has a 2.1 with 53 ratings - which sounds awful.
Fan mood · last 3 weeks · more negative than 3 in 4 FBS fan bases
Offense: 13th of 138 per play. Defense: 8th.
Through 9 games. Each tick is an FBS team, adjusted for opponent strength (CFB Zeitgeist model); the dot is Indiana. The other two rows are where Indiana stands furthest from the middle. Early-season numbers move a lot.
3 games left
Sat Nov 14vs. USCUSC (7-2)76%
Sat Nov 21at WASHWashington (5-3)75%
Sat Nov 28vs. PURPurdue (3-5)94%
Percent: Indiana’s chance to win, from the site’s model. Records are through today.
How the season got here
Where Indiana stood among 138 FBS programs by stature after each game (1st is the highest; the CFB Zeitgeist ledger).
Each week as this page showed it at the time. Weeks marked rebuilt came before this page existed: they were built afterward from only what was known by the end of that week.
Our poach model, on his record so far, the win chances for every game he has left, his program, his pay and his background. Ranked against the 132 FBS head coaches this season. The zone words describe the market’s interest; none of them says he is leaving.
What drives his number
The biggest factors in his profile, each against the typical FBS head coach today. The games he has left are priced into the number, not listed here.
▼ Lower
Age 65 · neither at his alma mater nor in the state he was born in
▲ Higher
His team is 8-1, outscoring opponents by 20.0 points a game · AP-ranked
▲ Higher
His 3rd season at Indiana
How good is this number? It ranks a head coach who leaves for another head-coaching job ahead of one who stays 78 to 82% of the time, and its average came within a point of the share who actually left. What it can’t do
Tested on every FBS head coach from 2012 through 2025, each season scored by a model fit only on the seasons before it. From three games on, given one coach who left for a head-coaching job elsewhere or an NFL coordinator job and one who stayed, it ranked the one who left ahead 79 to 82% of the time; in a season’s first two games, 78%. Its average chance came within a point of the share who actually left. It counts a move a coach makes while he still holds the job; when his school ends it, that doesn’t count, even if another school then hires him.
The live number prices the games he has left with the power model’s ratings from this season. The test priced them with each team’s rating from the season before, because ratings made during past seasons were not kept, so this live version could not be replayed.
Programs new to FBS have no FBS record before this season in the data it reads, so their coaches are scored without one.
It is frozen: it learns nothing from 2026 until a deliberate refit.
A coach hired in December needs his background (age, alma mater, the state he was born in) added before his first game, or he shows as not rated.
Fans
Fan chatter
Oct 31W 23-16 vs. MinnesotaI love Cignetti so much.IUIndiana fan
Oct 24W 13-6 at MichiganIs Cignetti John wick with a pencil? Cause that’s what he had at qb todayIUIndiana fan
Oct 10W 20-17 at NebraskaCignetti played chess making Rhule burn the timeout on the PATIUIndiana fan
Earlier weeks
Oct 3W 47-15 at RutgersHope Cignetti builds up Nico. He needs confidenceIUIndiana fan
Sep 25W 29-23 vs. NorthwesternI’d show up at Monroe County Jail and claim I’m Curt Cignetti. I know many other Hoosiers would do the same.IUIndiana fan
Sep 19W 38-0 vs. Western KentuckyThis is the most underwhelming performance of the Cignetti eraIUIndiana fan
Sep 12W 55-0 vs. HowardTo be a student again especially with Cignetti as our coachIUIndiana fan
Sep 5W 52-16 vs. North Texastbh the state farm cignetti ad worked on meIUIndiana fan
Many stories about him this week
Bye week. Next: USC, Sat Nov 14
21st of 104 FBS head coaches · from many outlets and r/CFB
Gold: stories about him each day. W and L: his games.
Profile and featureMany storiesfadingCurt Cignetti takes shot at Notre Dame after Indiana home-and-home series canceledr/notredamefootball
WinMany storiesfading
Conference and scheduleMany storiesIndiana's Curt Cignetti: The Big Ten is the best conference because 'we don't cry a river, whine and complain' after falling shortr/CFB
What was said at each stop
Stories we tracked, by school.
IndianaDozens of stories2024 to now
Most about: press conference and quotes, game preview, profile and feature.
Gold: stories we tracked each season, drawn on a square-root scale so a quiet year still shows. Hatched: before we started tracking (2024). Earlier years had thinner coverage, so compare within a stop, not across decades.
Stories are headlines grouped by what they are about, counted through Nov 4.
Stats
Big games
Pick a job to see its years on their own.
The big-game ledger
How he does in the games that matter most — rivalry record, performance broken out by real opponent tier, one-score games, and his toughest historical matchup.
Tags describe each game; they aren’t scores. The weighting that picks these games is still being tested.
The big-game ledger
How he does in the games that matter most — rivalry record, performance broken out by real opponent tier, one-score games, and his toughest historical matchup.
2-0 against his rivals at Indiana. Just 1-2 against Ryan Day.
’24 L · blew a 7-pt lead’25 W · erased a 7-pt deficit’26 L · blew a 4-pt lead
covered the spread
33% win rate across a real, 3-meeting series — short of the bar this site uses before badging a series “Nemesis.” Shown here as the toughest matchup on record, not an algorithmic crown.
Performance by opponent class
Blue Blood
4-2 66.7%ATS 2-4 6 of 6
Power Program
8-1 88.9%ATS 4-5 9 of 9
National Program
11-0 100.0%ATS 7-4 11 of 11
Regional Program
9-0 100.0%ATS 5-4 9 of 9
Signature games
3-2 vs. AP top 25 · 3-2 vs. the top 10
Every AP-ranked regular-season opponent, by rank (#1 at top) and year
’24’25’26
win loss · higher = higher-ranked opponent · dashed line = top 10
Signature wins
WAL
Alabama · 2025
38-3
Quality opponentBowl/CFP stakes
WOR
Oregon · 2025
56-22
Quality opponentBowl/CFP stakes
WMI
Miami · 2025
27-21
Quality opponentNational title game
Signature losses
LND
Notre Dame · 2024
17-27
Bowl/CFP stakes
LOS
Ohio State · 2024
15-38
LOS
Ohio State · 2026
15-19
Tags describe each game; they aren’t scores. The weighting that picks these games is still being tested.
The big-game ledger
How he does in the games that matter most — rivalry record, performance broken out by real opponent tier, one-score games, and his toughest historical matchup.
4-0 against his rivals. Just 1-2 against Ryan Day.
’24 L · blew a 7-pt lead’25 W · erased a 7-pt deficit’26 L · blew a 4-pt lead
covered the spread
33% win rate across a real, 3-meeting series — short of the bar this site uses before badging a series “Nemesis.” Shown here as the toughest matchup on record, not an algorithmic crown.
Performance by opponent class
Blue Blood
4-2 66.7%ATS 2-4 6 of 6
Power Program
8-1 88.9%ATS 4-5 9 of 9
National Program
14-3 82.4%ATS 9-8 17 of 17
Regional Program
23-1 95.8%ATS 17-7 24 of 24
Signature games
4-2 vs. AP top 25 · 3-2 vs. the top 10
Every AP-ranked regular-season opponent, by rank (#1 at top) and year
’22’24’25’26
win loss · higher = higher-ranked opponent · dashed line = top 10
Signature wins
WAL
Alabama · 2025
38-3
Quality opponentBowl/CFP stakes
WOR
Oregon · 2025
56-22
Quality opponentBowl/CFP stakes
WMI
Miami · 2025
27-21
Quality opponentNational title game
Signature losses
LND
Notre Dame · 2024
17-27
Bowl/CFP stakes
LGA
Georgia Southern · 2022
38-45
Upset
LLO
Louisville · 2022
10-34
Tags describe each game; they aren’t scores. The weighting that picks these games is still being tested.
ATS is his record against the spread: did his team beat the closing betting line, winning by more than it or losing by less? Lines start in 2013; a dash means fewer than 6 of those games had one. One-score games carry no spread record: a big favorite that wins a close game has almost always failed to cover, so that number would say nothing about the coach.
Defining games during this era
From our list of the 50 most defining games of the Playoff era, ranked by how much each game mattered, not by date.
1,894 run and pass snaps at Indiana, 2024–2025, his own games, one row per offensive coordinator. Each cell is how much more often he passed than the rest of FBS did in the same situation (field zone, down, distance, score, quarter, same season), in percentage points.
passed moreran morewithin noise (95% range includes 0)
Pass rate, stint by stint
Where each stint’s offense sat between run-first and pass-first, and how far it moved from one season to the next, against the FBS-wide average of 41% pass. The band is that stint’s real season-to-season range, not a fixed-width box.
Pass rate — share of offensive plays that were pass attemptsfirst covered seasonmost recent covered seasonfull season-to-season range (3+ covered seasons)
How much that is, against every other stint
Season-to-season pass-rate range for all 449 FBS coaching stints with at least three covered seasons, 2004–2025.
Typical stint7.010.3 median14.8middle half of all stints
Indiana4.3pt#410 of 449 · less than most
Building the roster
Six numbers on how he actually stocks a roster, from signing day to draft day.
His 3 ranked Indiana classes of his own have averaged #47 nationally — best #29, worst #65.
JMJames Madison
2022
#132
His class
2023
#133
His class
INIndiana
2024
#65
His class
2025
#47
His class
2026
#29
His class
Across every program: 5 ranked classes of his own, averaging #81 nationally.
His class — he had the full signing cycle
Rank is each signing class’s national recruiting rank (#1 is best). Only a class he had a full signing cycle to build counts as his.
Followed him here
at least11players
JMJames Madison→INIndiana2024
At least 11 players followed him from James Madison to Indiana.
Aiden Fisher LB
Elijah Sarratt WR
Jailin Walker LB
James Carpenter DL
Kaelon Black RB
Mikail Kamara DL
Nick Kidwell OL
Solomon Vanhorse RB
Ty Son Lawton RB
Tyrique Tucker DL
Zach Horton TE
Players who transferred from his old program to his new one through the portal in the same year he made the move. Name-matching across data sources misses some, so every count is a floor, not an exact number.
Roster ownership
Roster ownership
88%His own players
of his 2026 roster arrived on his watch — 92 of 104 players. The other 12 are holdovers from before he was hired.
Arrived under him 92Inherited 12
Of his own players on this roster, 24% came through the transfer portal; the rest are non-portal arrivals (high-school signees, JUCO transfers, walk-ons).
New players each season, 2024–2026
39% of his 153 new players since 2024 came through the portal (FBS programs, same seasons: 29%). His share was 39% in 2024 and 37% in 2026.
Graded on the players who arrived and the players who left together, his portal seasons came out better than most FBS programs’ in 2 of the 3 seasons graded. our read
202423 of 59Portal grade: about typical for FBS that season
202520 of 51Portal grade: better than most — #8 of 136 FBS programs that season
202616 of 43Portal grade: better than most — #6 of 136 FBS programs that season
Came through the portalNon-portal arrivalsFBS-wide share that season
Each player counts once, in the season he arrived. 2021, the first season of portal tracking here, is left off because its arrival records look incomplete (about 31 new players per FBS team, against 52 in 2022). Portal grade: the site’s position-value-weighted scoring (the same engine as the Portal Heat feed and the “Who won the portal” grade): the value of the players who came in minus the value of the ones who left, ranked against every FBS program’s grade that same season. A season with fewer than 4 transfers in and out is not graded.
“His own” means the player arrived while he was head coach; “inherited” means a predecessor brought him in.
Size up front
Size up front
−2 lbAgainst the FBS average
Offensive linemen on his Indiana rosters have averaged within a few pounds of the FBS average (2024–2026). In the three seasons before he arrived, Indiana’s line averaged within a few pounds of the FBS average.
Indiana2024–2026−2 lb
−10FBS avg+10lb
His seasonsSame program, the seasons before he arrivedMiddle half of FBS coaching runs since 2010
Average listed weight of every offensive lineman on each season’s roster, holdovers included, against every FBS roster that season (2010 on; a program needs 3+ seasons under him to appear). Weights are the ones programs publish, and programs list differently. This describes size only — not scheme, and not quality.
Where he recruits
INTop state
is his biggest recruiting state: 18 of 66 signees (27%) across his 2024–2026 tenure, drawn from 15 states in all. Next: FL (7).
Where his signees came from, 2024–2026 (66 high-school, JUCO and prep signees)
50% of his signees come from IN and its 4 border states (OH 7, IL 6, KY 1, MI 1).
Off this map: 4 signees to the south (FL 4), 1 to the west (MO) and 1 to the east (RI).
By region
Midwest
39
South
24
Northeast
3
Roster distance from campus (Memorial Stadium (Bloomington, IN))
median hometown distance
209 mi
within 100 mi
29%
within 500 mi
76%
beyond 1,000 mi
0%
98 of 104 roster players with a known hometown (94% coverage)
The map counts signed recruits across his tenure; the distance figures cover his current roster, transfers and walk-ons included. Two different groups, kept separate on purpose.
The NFL pipeline
The NFL pipeline
10Drafted
players drafted into the NFL off his teams here. He brought in 9 of them himself; 1 arrived under Tom Allen. 2 went in the first round.
His recruits 9Inherited 110 roster-verified · 0 estimated
Most recent picks first
Year
Pick
Player
Pos
NFL team
Note
2026
R1.01
Fernando Mendoza
Quarterback
Las Vegas Raiders
2026
R1.30
Omar Cooper Jr.
Wide Receiver
New York Jets
recruited under Tom Allen
2026
R2.18
D'Angelo Ponds
Cornerback
New York Jets
2026
R3.26
Kaelon Black
Running Back
San Francisco 49ers
2026
R4.15
Elijah Sarratt
Wide Receiver
Baltimore Ravens
2026
R5.29
Riley Nowakowski
Tight End
Pittsburgh Steelers
2026
R6.13
Pat Coogan
Center
Tennessee Titans
2026
R7.27
Aiden Fisher
Linebacker
Houston Texans
Year
Pick
Player
Pos
NFL team
Note
2025
R4.11
CJ West
Defensive Tackle
San Francisco 49ers
2025
R7.11
Kurtis Rourke
Quarterback
San Francisco 49ers
A pick counts toward his tenure when the player’s final college season was one he coached, a checkable rule rather than a claim about who developed the player. A blank note means the player is on a verified roster and arrived on his watch. “Estimated” means no roster record, so the final season is assumed to be the year before the draft.
News
Stories about him
Headlines, grouped by what they are about. Each is the outlet’s own.
PPat McAfeePMS 2.0 1656 - The Halloween Episode, TNF Recap, NFL Week 8 Preview/Picks, Nick Saban, IU Head Coach Curt Cignetti, Jessie Bates III, & AJ HawkOct 30
We all saw the last play. We’re fourth-and-four. We’re expecting a house blitz. Never really know. Rolling the dice, and that’s our blitz check that we ran
Hired into programs rated 23 to 24 (Regional Program I tier). Rough match, not calibrated yet — ranked on what the job inherited alone. Coaches hired into this same job aren’t used as comps.
Of the 5 closest comps, 0 had the program higher than he found it by the end of his run and 5 lower. Median stay: 8 seasons; 1 left mid-season.
Every coach hired into a Regional Program I job since 1990 (64): typically -0.9 after year 1, -1.9 after year 2.
Curt Cignetti raised Indiana from Regional Program I to Power Program II.
+26.6 pts over 3 seasons · top 1% of 3-5-season tenures (717 in sample)
1st-best Indiana tenure of 16 by the numbers.
Followed Tom Allen (2016–2023).
System Shift, on arrival
Season
2024
2025
2026
Trend
Record & result
Record
11-2
16-0
8-1
Postseason
CFP loss
Champion
—
Coordinators
OC
Mike Shanahan / Tino Sunseri
Mike Shanahan / Chandler Whitmer
Mike Shanahan / Tino Sunseri
DC
Bryant Haines
Bryant Haines
Bryant Haines
Outcome — opponent-adjusted efficiency percentile
Offense
82
100
90
Defense
95
96
95
Tendencies — play-by-play, neutral script
1st-down pass%
41.2
43.8
41.8
Red-zone pass%
38.2
35.8
37.2
4th-down go%opp. territory
45.8
30.8
29.0
Recruiter or developer?
Outperforms his recruiting talent, on both sides of the ball.
Offense vs. talent
+40.0 pts
#6 of 208 · top quarter
Defense vs. talent
+44.9 pts
#2 of 208 · top quarter
Recruiting talent is team-wide (no offense/defense split exists in the source data) -- both sides are scored against the same talent input, only the outcome is side-specific.
Who they bring in
Typical size for position, once adjusted for position mix.
Recruits older, more experienced transfers than most.
Avg. size (raw)
6′2″, 235 lbs
across 61 of 70 arrivals — unadjusted for position mix
Size vs. position-typical
+5.8 lbs
#74 of 255 · middle half
Avg. class year
Jr
#44 of 255 · top quarter
Avg. portal rating
3.1★
rated arrivals only
Top states: VA (11), GA (6), TX (4), MD (4), IN (3)
On3’s modeled estimate (social reach / exposure), not money actually paid — shown per player, never totaled.
Who won the portal our read
Talent added
62.7
position-weighted
Talent lost
58.6
position-weighted
Net
+4.1
arrivals minus departures
Best addition: Fernando Mendoza (QB) from California
Biggest loss: Brendan Sorsby (QB) to Cincinnati
Position-value-weighted (QB/CB weighted highest, depth-decayed within each position) — the same scoring engine as the Portal Heat feed, not a separate grade.
Does the system survive a coordinator change?
OC: Mike Shanahan / Tino Sunseri (co) → Mike Shanahan / Chandler Whitmer (co) · 2025
1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.
1st-down pass rate: 41.2% → 43.8% (+2.5 pts)
Confound, shown not hidden: only 25% of offensive production returned the year the coordinator changed — the roster turned over at the same time, not just the play-caller.
OC: Mike Shanahan / Chandler Whitmer (co) → Mike Shanahan / Tino Sunseri (co) · 2026
1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.
1st-down pass rate: 43.8% → 41.8% (-2.0 pts)
Confound, shown not hidden: only 17% of offensive production returned the year the coordinator changed — the roster turned over at the same time, not just the play-caller.
Where the roster comes from, by position
Buys Long snapper via the portal
100%
#1 of 13 stints
Buys Running back via the portal
73%
#28 of 208 stints
Postseason detail2024: Lost to Notre Dame 17-27 College Football Playoff First Round Game Presented by Allstate2025: Beat Alabama 38-3 College Football Playoff Quarterfinal at the Rose Bowl Presented by Prudential2025: Beat Oregon 56-22 College Football Playoff Semifinal at the Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl2025: Beat Miami 27-21 College Football Playoff National Championship Presented by AT&T
Coach of the Year: Big Ten Dave McClain Coach of the Year/Big Ten Hayes–Schembechler Coach of the Year (2024), Big Ten Dave McClain Coach of the Year/Big Ten Hayes–Schembechler Coach of the Year (2025)
AI Narratives — “Indiana's Offseason Depth Crisis” and 24 more on the team page.
35-3
2022–2023
James MadisonSteady◆ coach of the year
Regional Program I
Curt Cignetti held James Madison at Regional Program I for 2 seasons.
Succeeded by Bob Chesney (2024–2025).
System Shift, on departure
Season
2022
2023
Trend
Record & result
Record
8-3
11-1
Postseason
—
—
Coordinators
OC
Mike Shanahan
Mike Shanahan
DC
Bryant Haines
Bryant Haines
Outcome — opponent-adjusted efficiency percentile
Offense
43
76
Defense
96
89
Tendencies — play-by-play, neutral script
1st-down pass%
42.8
48.6
Red-zone pass%
34.5
44.9
4th-down go%opp. territory
35.7
22.4
Recruiter or developer?
Outperforms his recruiting talent, on both sides of the ball.
Offense vs. talent
+30.1 pts
#13 of 208 · top quarter
Defense vs. talent
+61.1 pts
#1 of 208 · top quarter
Recruiting talent is team-wide (no offense/defense split exists in the source data) -- both sides are scored against the same talent input, only the outcome is side-specific.
Roster construction · portal era
Barely touches the portal — recruits and develops his own.
Portal arrivals
10
3.0★ avg rating
Portal departures
7
left via the portal
Net portal flow
+3
#167 of 187 FBS stints
Who they bring in
Brings in smaller-than-position-typical players than most.
Recruits older, more experienced transfers than most.
Avg. size (raw)
6′1″, 205 lbs
across 8 of 10 arrivals — unadjusted for position mix
Size vs. position-typical
+1.1 lbs
#216 of 255 · bottom quarter
Avg. class year
Sr
#1 of 255 · top quarter
Top states: FL (3), VA (2), MS (1), PA (1), GA (1)
Who won the portal our read
Talent added
38.7
position-weighted
Talent lost
25.0
position-weighted
Net
+13.7
arrivals minus departures
Best addition: Todd Centeio (QB) from Colorado State
Biggest loss: Antonio Webb Jr. (CB) to the portal
Position-value-weighted (QB/CB weighted highest, depth-decayed within each position) — the same scoring engine as the Portal Heat feed, not a separate grade.
Where the roster comes from, by position
Buys Quarterback via the portal
75%
#5 of 206 stints
Grows Interior line from high school
100%
#198 of 224 stints
Grows Cornerback from high school
75%
#200 of 236 stints
Coach of the Year: Sun Belt Coach of the Year (2023)
1 player-season honored (All-America / national award): Jalen Green (2023)
James Madison
Las Vegas Raiders
New York Jets
San Francisco 49ers
Baltimore Ravens
Pittsburgh Steelers
Tennessee Titans
Houston Texans
