The Zeitgeist List · Rivalries

Paul Bunyan Trophy

Michigan State38-75-5Michigan
National Program III#62 of 138–Blue Blood#5 of 138–
See both programs’ full 91-year Zeitgeist History, side by side →
This year’s game — the live preview →
5 players crossed straight to the rival since 2021 — the turncoat ledger →

Michigan leads the all-time series 75-38-5. They've met 118 times since 1898. Michigan has won the last 4.

Current season

Vegas win totals and transfer-portal swing right now, plus what fans are actually saying — not history, this year.

Michigan State
Win total
3.5
Vegas over/under
Transfer portal
-5
portal net points (weighted) · raw ledger: -58
What fans are saying · recruiting effort
One fan believes a strong recruiting class can turn around the team's performance
if we want to be good next year I’m expecting like a 35-40 player haul in the portal along with it being a T15-20 class.
Verified verbatim
Michigan
Win total
6.5
Vegas over/under
Transfer portal
-5
portal net points (weighted) · raw ledger: -46
What fans are saying · player performance
One fan thinks Carr can elevate Michigan's offense long-term
Love Tommy Carr. He is one tough player and I see him becoming an elite player for Michigan in the next year or two.
Verified verbatim

Stature & the series, 1898–2025

Both programs’ standing over time, each line named at its end, with every meeting beneath — read down to see who was bigger and who won. (Stature is each program’s season-by-season standing on the Zeitgeist List, 1936–present — one score blending on-field performance, program achievement, and roster talent.)

program stature over timeMichigan StateMichiganevery meeting (bar height = margin; dark: Michigan State won, gray: Michigan won)1900192019401960198020002020

The identity war

Michigan State has been the more pass-heavy program more often than not.

Across 23 seasons of real play-level data (2004–2026), Michigan State led 17 and Michigan led 6.

more passmore runMichigan StateMichigan2004200620082010201220142016201820202022202420262022Michigan State 15.2 ptsMichigan won 29-72011Michigan State 14.3 ptsMichigan State won 28-142006Michigan State 13.6 ptsMichigan won 31-13
Source team_season_stats (CFBD season totals) · pass rate = passAttempts ÷ (passAttempts + rushingAttempts)

Michigan once won 14 in a row. The biggest win was Michigan by 119 in 1902. The biggest crowd, 113,833, was in 2012.

The coaching duels

Duffy Daugherty vs Bump Elliott7-2-1
Charlie Bachman vs Fritz Crisler0-7
George Perles vs Bo Schembechler2-5
Biggie Munn vs Bennie Oosterbaan4-2
Duffy Daugherty vs Bennie Oosterbaan2-2-1
George Perles vs Gary Moeller2-3

The draft ledger

Every NFL Draft pick either program has produced since the modern era began, decade by decade.

Draft picks
154-260
Michigan leads
1st-rounders
24-46
Since
1967
First CFBD-carried draft class
Michigan StateMichigan
1960s10-9
1970s21-46
1980s22-30
1990s29-34
2000s32-46
2010s27-37
2020s13-58

Best picks, either side

1967Bubba Smith Defensive End · Baltimore ColtsRd 1, pick 1#1 overall
2008Jake Long Offensive Tackle · Miami DolphinsRd 1, pick 1#1 overall
1967Clinton Jones Running Back · Minnesota VikingsRd 1, pick 2#2 overall
1989Tony Mandarich Offensive Tackle · Green Bay PackersRd 1, pick 2#2 overall
2003Charles Rogers Wide Receiver · Detroit LionsRd 1, pick 2#2 overall
2022Aidan Hutchinson Defensive End · Detroit LionsRd 1, pick 2#2 overall
1984Carl Banks Linebacker · New York GiantsRd 1, pick 3#3 overall
2005Braylon Edwards Wide Receiver · Cleveland BrownsRd 1, pick 3#3 overall

Recent meetings

Gate premium

Michigan State1.10×its own average home crowd

A modest gap over a small sample of games — real, but not a dramatic swing.

2025Michigan31-20
2024Michigan24-17
2023Michigan49-0
2022Michigan29-7
2021Michigan State37-33
2020Michigan State27-24Michigan — Michigan favored by 21.5
2019Michigan44-10
2018Michigan21-7
2017Michigan State14-10Michigan — Michigan favored by 12.5
2016Michigan32-23
2015Michigan State27-23
2014Michigan State35-11
2013Michigan State29-6Michigan — both ranked
2012Michigan12-10

Every meeting since 2018, play by play

Each line is Michigan State’s chance to win through that meeting. Michigan State is 1-1 in the meetings since 2018 that were still close in the fourth quarter. The loudest meeting for fans was 2022: loud.

2025Michigan 31-20Michigan State lost 20-31 vs Michigan. Chance to win started at 24%, low under 1%, high 26%.Busy
2024Michigan 24-17Michigan State lost 17-24 at Michigan. Chance to win started at 45%, low 3%, high 74%.Busy
2023Michigan 49-0Michigan State lost 0-49 vs Michigan. Chance to win started at 4%, low under 1%, high 5%.Busy
2022Michigan 29-7Michigan State lost 7-29 at Michigan. Chance to win started at 10%, low under 1%, high 19%.Loud
2020Michigan State 27-24Michigan State won 27-24 at Michigan. Chance to win started at 9%, low 5%, high 95%.
2019Michigan 44-10Michigan State lost 10-44 at Michigan. Chance to win started at 21%, low under 1%, high 39%.
2018Michigan 21-7Michigan State lost 7-21 vs Michigan. Chance to win started at 31%, low 1%, high 56%.
“Wow. He really said it.”
A Michigan fan
Read a quote from each meeting
  • 2025
    “im fine with it, make chiles transfer please”
    A Michigan State fan

Meetings with their own story page

11 meetings in our archive, 2015 to 2025.