Next game: at Michigan
Michigan’s best edge on Michigan State is passing
Each unit against the one it meets, by national percentile this season. A filled dot is the attack and a ring is the defense it meets; the first name is the attack. Further right is better for both.
Michigan State offense against Michigan defense
Michigan offense against Michigan State defense
Percentiles are against all FBS teams this season.
Key stats
Each bar is the team’s national rank as a percentile. A longer bar is better, for defense too.
All 98 stats
FBS rankings · 2026 season · all stats vs 136 FBS programs
| Player | # | G | Cmp/Att | Pct | Yds | Y/A | TD | INT | Rate | ZPR | QBR | Adj ANY/A | Sack% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pocket Passer · +0.16 EPA/play | 11 | 7 | 121 / 185 | 65.4 | 1263 | 6.8 | 7 | 3 | 132.0 | 43 | 65 | 5.7 | 8.4 | |
Yards by week → Pocket passerBalanced passer who operates within the system, without one standout number carrying the profile. Starter — 185 pass attempts and 41 carries in 7 games, fewer passes and runs a game than most FBS quarterbacks who play every week. The most common profile in its group this season — 79 of 159 classified this way. Played in 7 of 10 games this season · freshman · 3-star, 2024 class View Alessio Milivojevic's full player page | ||||||||||||||
| +0.13 EPA/play | 15 | 1 | 9 / 15 | 60 | 67 | 4.5 | 0 | 1 | 84.2 | — | 56.6 | — | — | |
Yards by week → | ||||||||||||||
| -0.20 EPA/play | 2 | 5 | 8 / 11 | 72.7 | 59 | 5.4 | 0 | 1 | 99.6 | — | 62.6 | — | — | |
Yards by week → | ||||||||||||||
| -0.24 EPA/play | 10 | 2 | 4 / 10 | 40 | 42 | 4.2 | 1 | 1 | 88.3 | — | 2.2 | — | — | |
Yards by week → | ||||||||||||||
| Player | # | G | Car | Yds | Avg | TD | Long | Stuff% | 10+% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Balanced Back · +0.20 EPA/play | 4 | 6 | 76 | 327 | 4.3 | 5 | 36 | 14.3 | 6.5 | |
Yards by week → Balanced backPlays within the scheme — consistent production without a dominant dimension. 76 carries and 7 catches in 6 games. About as many touches a game as a typical FBS running back who plays every week. The most common profile in its group this season — 134 of 278 classified this way. Played in 6 of 10 games this season · freshman View Jaziun Patterson's full player page | ||||||||||
| Balanced Back · +0.09 EPA/play | — | 4 | 64 | 304 | 4.8 | 3 | 40 | 17.2 | 9.4 | |
Yards by week → Balanced backPlays within the scheme — consistent production without a dominant dimension. The most common profile in its group this season — 134 of 278 classified this way. Played in 4 of 10 games this season · freshman View Camryn Edwards's full player page | ||||||||||
| -0.20 EPA/play | 21 | 8 | 35 | 105 | 3 | 0 | 15 | — | — | |
Yards by week → | ||||||||||
| Player | # | G | Rec | Yds | Avg | TD | Long | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Possession Receiver · +0.29 EPA/play | 13 | 8 | 29 | 289 | 10.0 | 1 | 53 | |
Yards by week → Possession receiver· Boom-or-bustReliable target who converts on critical downs. Not flashy; consistently productive. his yards come in chunks — feast or famine 29 catches and 5 carries in 8 games. About as many catches a game as a typical FBS receiver who plays every week. This week's matchup — WR Mccray moves the chains on third down. Lawson is the one who wins underneath on volume and route precision. Season receipt Yards / reception11.1 bottom 25th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions TD rate3.4% bottom 21th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Trait fingerprint Plays like View Chrishon Mccray's full player page | ||||||||
| Complete TE · +0.42 EPA/play | 31 | 8 | 29 | 271 | 9.3 | 0 | 46 | |
Yards by week → Complete TENo single go-to route — the receiving numbers show up inline and split out alike. Impact starter — 29 catches in 8 games, more catches a game than most FBS tight ends who play every week. This week's matchup — TE Savoury shows up in the passing game from any alignment. Naone is the one who shows up in the passing game from any alignment. Season receipt Yards / reception9.9 bottom 39th percentile · FBS TEs, min. 8 receptions Reception volume29 92th percentile · FBS TEs, min. 8 receptions Trait fingerprint Plays like View Jayden Savoury's full player page | ||||||||
| Possession Receiver · +0.40 EPA/play | 3 | 7 | 21 | 253 | 12.0 | 1 | 53 | |
Yards by week → Possession receiver· Boom-or-bustReliable target who converts on critical downs. Not flashy; consistently productive. his yards come in chunks — feast or famine The most common profile in its group this season — 279 of 467 classified this way. Played in 7 of 10 games this season · freshman View Rodney Bullard Jr.'s full player page | ||||||||
| Possession Receiver · +0.31 EPA/play | 6 | 8 | 20 | 216 | 10.8 | 2 | 29 | |
Yards by week → Possession receiver· Money-downReliable target who converts on critical downs. Not flashy; consistently productive. lives on the sticks and moves the chains The most common profile in its group this season — 279 of 467 classified this way. Played in 8 of 10 games this season · freshman View Fredrick Moore's full player page | ||||||||
| +0.99 EPA/play | 82 | 4 | 6 | 62 | 10.3 | 0 | 24 | |
Yards by week → | ||||||||
| Player | # | G | Tot | Solo | TFL | Sack | Hur |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nose Anchor | 55 | 7 | 26 | 11 | 5 | 2 | 2 |
Nose anchorThe heaviest frame on the interior. Sack production is intentionally not the point of this profile. Starter — 26 tackles in 7 games, about as many tackles a game as a typical FBS defensive lineman who plays every week. 130 of 606 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Weight325 lb 93th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Ben Roberts's full player page | |||||||
| 3-Tech Penetrator | 96 | 8 | 18 | 9 | 4.5 | 3.5 | 4 |
3-tech penetratorDisruptive interior rusher who lives in the backfield. 18 tackles in 8 games. Fewer tackles a game than most FBS defensive linemen who play every week. 200 of 606 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate25.0% 81th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Eli Coenen's full player page | |||||||
| 52 | 7 | 9 | 3 | 0.5 | 0 | 1 | |
| 98 | 6 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | |
| Player | # | G | Tot | Solo | Ast | TFL | Sack | PD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Coverage 'Backer | 18 | 7 | 48 | 19 | 29 | 2.5 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
Coverage ’backerCarries tight ends and patrols the middle of the field in coverage. 48 tackles in 7 games. About as many tackles a game as a typical FBS linebacker who plays every week. 89 of 564 LBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate6.2% 83th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Plays like View Dion Crawford's full player page | |||||||||
| Coverage 'Backer | 12 | 6 | 34 | 15 | 19 | 1.5 | 0 | 4 | 0 |
Coverage ’backerCarries tight ends and patrols the middle of the field in coverage. 34 tackles in 6 games. About as many tackles a game as a typical FBS linebacker who plays every week. 89 of 564 LBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate11.8% 99th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Sack rate0.0% bottom 23th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Trait fingerprint Plays like View Cam Stodghill's full player page | |||||||||
| Versatile End | 1 | 7 | 26 | 12 | 14 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
Versatile endNo single standout number, but nothing missing either — competent across the board. Starter — 26 tackles in 7 games, about as many tackles a game as a typical FBS defensive lineman who plays every week. 121 of 180 EDGEs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate11.5% bottom 26th percentile · FBS EDGE, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Kenny Soares Jr.'s full player page | |||||||||
| Balanced Linebacker | 45 | 6 | 26 | 13 | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Balanced linebackerSolid in every phase without a signature dimension. 330 of 564 LBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Tackle volume26 bottom 25th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles TFL rate0.0% bottom 9th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Trait fingerprint Plays like View Brady Pretzlaff's full player page | |||||||||
| Balanced Linebacker | 5 | 4 | 25 | 13 | 12 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Balanced linebackerSolid in every phase without a signature dimension. 330 of 564 LBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Tackle volume25 bottom 24th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles PD rate0.0% bottom 21th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Trait fingerprint Plays like View Jordan Hall's full player page | |||||||||
| Sideline-to-Sideline | 44 | 6 | 23 | 14 | 9 | 0.5 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
Sideline-to-sidelineRanges from hash to hash and makes his own tackles. 83 of 564 LBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Solo tackle rate0.6 88th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles TFL rate2.2% bottom 16th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Trait fingerprint Plays like View Caleb Wheatland's full player page | |||||||||
| Versatile End | 9 | 7 | 18 | 4 | 14 | 2.5 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Versatile endNo single standout number, but nothing missing either — competent across the board. 18 tackles in 7 games. Fewer tackles a game than most FBS defensive linemen who play every week. The most common profile in its group this season — 121 of 180 classified this way. Played in 7 of 10 games this season · freshman View Keahnist Thompson's full player page | |||||||||
| Speed Rusher | 11 | 6 | 14 | 6 | 8 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 0 | 0 |
Speed rusherBends the edge and wins with first-step quickness. Lighter frame, relentless motor. 19 of 180 EDGEs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Sack rate17.9% 81th percentile · FBS EDGE, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Anelu Lafaele's full player page | |||||||||
| Versatile End | 13 | 6 | 10 | 4 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Versatile endNo single standout number, but nothing missing either — competent across the board. 121 of 180 EDGEs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt View Isaac Smith's full player pageTFL rate10.0% bottom 21th percentile · FBS EDGE, min. 10 tackles | |||||||||
| 8 | 4 | 9 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 10 | 3 | 7 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Player | # | G | Tot | PD | INT | TFL | Sack |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Box Safety | 2 | 8 | 54 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
Box safetyLives near the line of scrimmage as a de facto extra linebacker. Impact starter — 54 tackles in 8 games, more tackles a game than nearly every FBS defensive back who plays every week. 150 of 657 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Tackle volume54 97th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles Plays like View Devin Vaught's full player page | |||||||
| Hybrid Nickel | 21 | 8 | 38 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
Hybrid nickelMoves between deep coverage and the slot — the modern positionless DB. Starter — 38 tackles in 8 games, about as many tackles a game as a typical FBS defensive back who plays every week. The most common profile in its group this season — 358 of 657 classified this way. Played in 8 of 10 games this season · freshman View Nikai Martinez's full player page | |||||||
| Hybrid Nickel | 7 | 7 | 21 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
Hybrid nickelMoves between deep coverage and the slot — the modern positionless DB. 358 of 657 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate4.8% bottom 35th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles Plays like View Michael Richard Jr.'s full player page | |||||||
| Cover Corner | 4 | 6 | 20 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Cover cornerSteady in coverage; doesn't get beat deep and rarely gives up the big play. 138 of 244 CBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate5.0% bottom 21th percentile · FBS corners, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Charles Brantley's full player page | |||||||
| Cover Corner | 3 | 5 | 16 | 2 | 0 | 2.5 | 1 |
Cover cornerSteady in coverage; doesn't get beat deep and rarely gives up the big play. 138 of 244 CBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate12.5% bottom 46th percentile · FBS corners, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Tre Bell's full player page | |||||||
| Cover Corner | — | 3 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Cover cornerSteady in coverage; doesn't get beat deep and rarely gives up the big play. 138 of 244 CBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate0.0% bottom 10th percentile · FBS corners, min. 10 tackles Plays like View NiJhay Burt's full player page | |||||||
| Cover Corner | 24 | 4 | 11 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Cover cornerSteady in coverage; doesn't get beat deep and rarely gives up the big play. 138 of 244 CBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate9.1% bottom 33th percentile · FBS corners, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Jeremiah Favorite's full player page | |||||||
| 22 | 3 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 30 | 2 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 14 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Player | # | G | FG M/A | FG% | XP M/A | Pts | Long |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steady | 37 | 8 | 11/14 | 78.6 | 16/16 | 49 | 51 |
| Player | # | G | No | Yds | Avg | Long | In20 | TB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 8 | 24 | 1170 | 48.8 | 74 | 8 | 6 |
Net average is unavailable — CFBD's punting feed carries gross yards only, with no return-yardage or touchback deduction.
| Player | # | G | No | Yds | Avg | TD | Long |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -0.15 EPA/play | 32 | 8 | 18 | 383 | 21.3 | 0 | 47 |
| Player | # | G | No | Yds | Avg | TD | Long |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Possession Receiver · +0.29 EPA/play | 13 | 8 | 10 | 131 | 13.1 | 0 | 41 |
Biggest plays from Michigan State’s games
Official highlights with our numbers: the plays that moved the chance to win most in Michigan State’s games this season, whoever made them.
Q4, 7:24 · Northwestern down 8, ties itAidan Chiles runs 1 yard for a touchdownNorthwestern at Michigan State, week 7Q4, 7:24 · Northwestern 21, Michigan State 21▲24%Northwestern’s chance to win, 26% to 50%▲24%Northwestern’s chance to win, 26% to 50%A.Chiles rush middle for 1 yard gain to the MSU00 touchdown A.Honig pass attempt Successful▶Watch from this playBig Ten Football
Q4, 1:17 · Michigan State down 7, ties itJaziun Patterson runs 2 yards for a touchdownIllinois at Michigan State, week 6Q4, 1:17 · Michigan State 31, Illinois 311:17Game-tying touchdown for Michigan State with 1:17 left1:17Game-tying touchdown for Michigan State with 1:17 leftGame-tying touchdown for Michigan State with 1:17 leftJ.Patterson rush middle for 2 yards gain to the ILL00 touchdown, kick good▶Watch from this play
- Q4, 10:37 · Michigan State down 1, takes the leadAlessio Milivojevic finds Rodney Bullard Jr. for a 5-yard touchdownToledo at Michigan State, week 1Q4, 10:37 · Michigan State 27, Toledo 20Go-ahead touchdown for Michigan State in the fourth quarterGo-ahead touchdown for Michigan State in the fourth quarterA.Milivojevic pass complete short right to R.Bullard Jr. caught at TOL00, for 5 yards to the TOL00 touchdown, 1ST DOWN R.Bullard Jr. pass attempt Successful▶Watch from this play
- Q2, 0:47 · Michigan State down 3, takes the leadAlessio Milivojevic finds Bryson Williams for a 32-yard touchdownNorthwestern at Michigan State, week 7Q2, 0:47 · Michigan State 14, Northwestern 1032Bryson Williams's second touch of the season is a 32-yard touchdown32Bryson Williams's second touch of the season is a 32-yard touchdownBryson Williams's second touch of the season is a 32-yard touchdownA.Milivojevic pass complete deep left to B.Williams caught at NU 00, for 32 yards to the NU 00 touchdown, 1ST DOWN, kick good▶Watch from this playBig Ten Football
Q2, 13:01 · Michigan State up 7K. Williams fumbles and UCLA recoversMichigan State at UCLA, week 8Q2, 13:01 · Michigan State 7, UCLA 07Michigan State’s turnover led to a touchdown7Michigan State’s turnover led to a touchdownMichigan State’s turnover led to a touchdownK.Williams rush left for 10 yards loss to the MSU19 fumbled by K.Williams at MSU19 forced by M.Hartford recovered by UCLA S.Omosigho at MSU19, End Of Play▶Watch from this play
CBS Sports College Football
Q2, 0:02 · Nebraska up 7Anthony Colandrea finds Vincent Genatone for a 13-yard touchdownNebraska at Michigan State, week 4Q2, 0:02 · Nebraska 24, Michigan State 10Nebraska scored with 0:02 left in the halfNebraska scored with 0:02 left in the halfA.Colandrea pass complete short middle to V.Genatone caught at MSU11, for 13 yards to the MSU00 touchdown, 1ST DOWN, kick good▶Watch from this play
How scary each game got
Michigan State lost to Northwestern after being 92% to win; the closest win was against Toledo, down to 37%
Tap a game for its score and win chances.
Each bar runs from the lowest to the highest chance our model gave Michigan State during that game; the thick mark is where it started. Numbers are the game week.
Stat leaders
2026 stat leaders · Michigan State
through 8 games
2026 stat leaders · Michigan StateDevin Vaught leads Michigan State with 54 tackles through 8 games.
Roster
Roster
2026+15 more
Recruiting and the portal: top commits · who's gone and who's back
How they play
Michigan State fields a struggling methodical, ball-control offense behind a porous defense, though it gives up the big play.
Percentile vs all FBS, based on this season's per-game production. Bar = where this team ranks — right is better.
Player percentiles
Michigan State reads strongest in field position (O) (top 17%) and success rate (top 51%); the crux lives in explosive plays, where Michigan State sits at the 1st percentile.
Offense · strengths lead
Defense · higher bar = harder to play against
Hidden math · special situations
Home-field advantage · 2018–present · FBS opponents
Michigan State is worth +2.9 points more at home than on the road.
Bottom third of FBS, 27th percentile of 133 programs
53% at home, 31% away against FBS opponents since 2018 (27-24 home, 13-29 away). Interval ±3.9.
The stadium and how the home edge is measured
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge. The books use about 3. Per-team versions were tested and did not hold up (why). Against the closing line, Michigan State has beaten the number by 6.2 points less at home than away over 97 games. That is outside the ±5.6 that many games can resolve, so this is one of the few buildings where the results say something the flat number does not.
Spartan Stadium seats 75,005 and has averaged 91% full (68,449, 29 games reported). Visitors get here easily: a median 267 miles trip since 2018, the 20th-shortest of 135 FBS venues. There is no travel penalty on visitors here either way. For the home side it is genuinely home ground: 30% of the 2026 roster (33 of 110 located players) grew up inside 100 miles of the stadium.
Edge = half the gap between average home margin and average road margin, FBS opponents only, non-neutral games since 2018; the interval is 95%. Market line: closing spread, seasons with lines on file. Trip length is straight-line miles from the visiting team's campus to the venue, measured across all 55 home games since 2018.
More in this tab
How they play
Usage splits
How the players get used
From the 2025 season's play-by-play
- CloserElijah Tau-Tolliver gets meaningfully more work in the fourth quarter with a lead than his overall workload would predict, mostly in real, competitive games: not just mop-up snaps.
- Deep threatJack Velling is used almost exclusively underneath: a low share of his targets are downfield shots.
Position battles
WR/TE room
The targets are split. The job isn’t.
Chrishon Mccray (WR) and Jayden Savoury (TE) split the targets (40/79 vs 39/79) -- but the job isn't split the same way. Chrishon Mccray is the one trusted on 3rd down.
See it develop week by week
3rd-down target share, week by week (weeks both players actually played the role)
Scheme claims
Michigan State’s 4th-quarter offense, before and after garbage time
Raw Q4 EPA/play ranks 28th percentile in FBS. Strip out snaps taken with a blowout margin and it climbs to the 72nd — the correction is the finding, not a footnote.
Standard downs vs. passing downs
Does Michigan State hold up once the down-and-distance turns against them?
23rd percentile success on standard downs, 55th on passing downs — a 32-point gap between the two.
View all FBS teams as a table
| Team | Standard-downs percentile | Passing-downs percentile |
|---|---|---|
| Air Force | 98th | 23rd |
| Akron | 58th | 34th |
| Alabama | 77th | 57th |
| App State | 33rd | 49th |
| Arizona | 76th | 94th |
| Arizona State | 38th | 61st |
| Arkansas | 71st | 24th |
| Arkansas State | 85th | 59th |
| Army | 93rd | 58th |
| Auburn | 14th | 69th |
| BYU | 86th | 35th |
| Ball State | 31st | 52nd |
| Baylor | 15th | 46th |
| Boise State | 77th | 92nd |
| Boston College | 63rd | 28th |
| Bowling Green | 43rd | 21st |
| Buffalo | 9th | 11th |
| California | 11th | 20th |
| Central Michigan | 36th | 9th |
| Charlotte | 18th | 41st |
| Cincinnati | 68th | 83rd |
| Clemson | 7th | 39th |
| Coastal Carolina | 23rd | 64th |
| Colorado | 16th | 65th |
| Colorado State | 66th | 95th |
| Delaware | 59th | 64th |
| Duke | 21st | 67th |
| East Carolina | 37th | 19th |
| Eastern Michigan | 16th | 30th |
| Florida | 61st | 70th |
| Florida Atlantic | 67th | 87th |
| Florida International | 20th | 53rd |
| Florida State | 30th | 90th |
| Fresno State | 25th | 84th |
| Gardner-Webb | 5th | 23rd |
| Georgia | 98th | 89th |
| Georgia Southern | 60th | 71st |
| Georgia State | 68th | 66th |
| Georgia Tech | 53rd | 40th |
| Hawai'i | 48th | 29th |
| Houston | 87th | 99th |
| Illinois | 73rd | 91st |
| Indiana | 55th | 44th |
| Iowa | 79th | 13th |
| Iowa State | 18th | 31st |
| Jacksonville State | 82nd | 80th |
| James Madison | 45th | 77th |
| Kansas | 52nd | 18th |
| Kansas State | 64th | 68th |
| Kennesaw State | 61st | 16th |
| Kent State | 5th | 21st |
| Kentucky | 90th | 51st |
| LSU | 86th | 98th |
| Liberty | 93rd | 78th |
| Louisiana | 36th | 66th |
| Louisiana Tech | 26th | 79th |
| Louisville | 95th | 72nd |
| Maine | 0th | 86th |
| Marshall | 69th | 32nd |
| Maryland | 34th | 26th |
| Massachusetts | 35th | 38th |
| Memphis | 92nd | 93rd |
| Mercyhurst | 2nd | 34th |
| Miami | 99th | 95th |
| Miami (OH) | 50th | 43rd |
| Michigan | 10th | 89th |
| Michigan State | 23rd | 55th |
| Middle Tennessee | 27th | 64th |
| Minnesota | 32nd | 4th |
| Mississippi State | 66th | 59th |
| Missouri | 34th | 41st |
| Missouri State | 52nd | 30th |
| NC State | 62nd | 77th |
| Navy | 89th | 17th |
| Nebraska | 46th | 85th |
| Nevada | 28th | 27th |
| New Mexico | 55th | 48th |
| New Mexico State | 14th | 36th |
| Norfolk State | 7th | 0th |
| North Carolina | 89th | 73rd |
| North Dakota State | 30th | 45th |
| North Texas | 95th | 84th |
| Northern Illinois | 51st | 14th |
| Northwestern | 88th | 88th |
| Notre Dame | 100th | 43rd |
| Ohio | 82nd | 42nd |
| Ohio State | 84th | 80th |
| Oklahoma | 4th | 50th |
| Oklahoma State | 96th | 86th |
| Old Dominion | 1st | 36th |
| Ole Miss | 81st | 94th |
| Oregon | 39th | 26th |
| Oregon State | 97th | 70th |
| Penn State | 20th | 47th |
| Pittsburgh | 65th | 50th |
| Purdue | 57th | 82nd |
| Rice | 59th | 14th |
| Robert Morris | 2nd | 5th |
| Rutgers | 42nd | 81st |
| SMU | 91st | 82nd |
| Sacramento State | 13th | 6th |
| Sam Houston | 11th | 37th |
| San Diego State | 8th | 54th |
| San José State | 17th | 2nd |
| South Alabama | 44th | 74th |
| South Carolina | 70th | 56th |
| South Florida | 84th | 57th |
| Southern Miss | 48th | 7th |
| Stanford | 40th | 9th |
| Syracuse | 57th | 39th |
| TCU | 70th | 10th |
| Temple | 50th | 68th |
| Tennessee | 75th | 12th |
| Texas | 27th | 61st |
| Texas A&M | 46th | 55th |
| Texas State | 74th | 100th |
| Texas Tech | 64th | 76th |
| Toledo | 73rd | 52nd |
| Troy | 39th | 15th |
| Tulane | 12th | 8th |
| Tulsa | 49th | 7th |
| UAB | 24th | 62nd |
| UCF | 29th | 45th |
| UCLA | 80th | 60th |
| UConn | 72nd | 73rd |
| UL Monroe | 47th | 11th |
| UNLV | 41st | 19th |
| USC | 79th | 97th |
| UT Martin | 6th | 3rd |
| UTEP | 9th | 1st |
| UTSA | 91st | 33rd |
| Utah | 94th | 98th |
| Utah State | 3rd | 76th |
| Vanderbilt | 41st | 32nd |
| Virginia | 83rd | 2nd |
| Virginia Tech | 43rd | 91st |
| Wake Forest | 75th | 96th |
| Washington | 56th | 16th |
| Washington State | 19th | 5th |
| West Virginia | 54th | 75th |
| Western Kentucky | 22nd | 25th |
| Western Michigan | 32nd | 27th |
| Wisconsin | 25th | 22nd |
| Wyoming | 78th | 48th |
Michigan State by half
1st-half offense ranks 2nd percentile in FBS; 2nd-half, 24th — competitive snaps only, garbage time excluded from both halves.
How much of Michigan State’s number is the schedule?
Raw EPA/play through week 10 is -0.02; 8th percentile once opponent strength is stripped out, it's -0.01. The widest gap came in week 3: 0.16 raw vs. 0.01 adjusted.
Pass defense by zone
What this team throws, and gives up, by depth.
On short throws (≤19 air yards), Michigan State’s passing game completes a completion rate above the FBS mean (67.5% vs 67.0% league-wide, shrunk toward the mean for its 199-play sample) — mid-pack, 75 of 136 qualifying offenses.
On short throws (≤19 air yards), Michigan State’s defense allows a completion rate below the FBS mean (64.6% vs 66.3% league-wide, shrunk toward the mean for its 189-play sample) — mid-pack, 29 of 137 qualifying defenses.
We won’t show a deep-ball (20+ air yards) leaderboard here, on either side of the ball: even a full season of charted plays gives most teams well under 30 deep attempts — too thin to tell a real tendency from noise, so we won’t guess. Same refusal for yards-after-catch allowed and where a team’s attempts land by zone: both measured and both came back statistically indistinguishable from season-to-season noise.
Havoc & trenches
Disruption, run-blocking, and down-and-distance efficiency.
Turnover luck
33% recovery rate on the fumbles they've forced — below the ~48% league baseline.
3 of 9 forced fumbles recovered; 3 of 8 own fumbles recovered themselves, 2026 only.
Takeaways
7% of tipped/broken-up passes have turned into picks — below the ~18% league average, and due for more.
2 interceptions of 28 disrupted passes (26 deflected, 2 intercepted), 2026 only.
Penalties
37 penalties committed, 38 drawn on opponents — ceding 30 yards of field position.
333 penalty yards committed vs. 303 drawn on opponents, 2026 season total.
Ratings and comparisons
Ratings
Comparable teams
Most similar programs · Michigan State
Most similar programs · Michigan StateReads like
Matched on how the programs are built — tier, prestige band, kind of fanbase, conference, voice and roster size — not on this season's stats. A calibration, not a prediction.
Historical echo
Michigan State’s slide has precedent — and 1 of the 4 closest kept falling.
Programs whose stature fell in the same shape. The grey line is their decline; the color is what came next for them.
An analogy on the shape of a program’s Zeitgeist stature arc — not a prediction. Interim calibration; matched among current FBS programs at a comparable level.
Weather
Spartan Stadium, East Lansing, MI
Usual during the game around Nov 14: 40°, between 31° and 49° in about 7 in 10 games (30 games since 2016).
Road games since 2016: the middle game was 50°, and 8 in 10 ran between 37° and 72° (49 road games).
What a usual Saturday feels like here, by kickoff time
Airport readings near each stadium during the game, not on the field. How we measure
Weather observations: National Weather Service, through the Iowa Environmental Mesonet at Iowa State University. Rain: NOAA MRMS radar and CoCoRaHS volunteer gauges (CC BY 4.0). Game data: CollegeFootballData.com.