Kent State at Bowling Green

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Kent State
3-6 Lost last game
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Bowling Green
2-7 Lost 3 straight
Tue, Nov 10 · 7:00 PM ET · Doyt L. Perry StadiumAdd to calendar: Google · other

Bowling Green (2‑7) hosts Kent State (3‑6). Too early for a market line, but the model likes Bowling Green (68%). Bowling Green’s offense is at the 12th percentile on explosive plays; Kent State’s defense is at the 70th.

How they got here

Last three games

Kent State · 3-6

Rated 122nd in our preseason ratings, 186th now.

1-2 in its last three — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.

L 10-13 vs Ohio No. 62 of 668 teams

lost by 3 as a 3.5-point underdog

Kent State lost 10-13 vs Ohio. Chance to win started at 45%, low 1%, high 59%.

L 3-59 @ Ohio StateTop 25 No. 1 of 668 teams

lost by 56 as a 52.5-point underdog

Kent State lost 3-59 at Ohio State. Never had a real chance.

L 0-57 @ South CarolinaTop 25 No. 17 of 668 teams

lost by 57 as a 35.5-point underdog

Kent State lost 0-57 at South Carolina. Chance to win started at 1%, low under 1%, high 2%.

Last three games

Bowling Green · 2-7

Rated 117th in our preseason ratings, 147th now.

Three straight losses.

Biggest mismatch: Bowling Green’s explosive plays against Kent State, 58 points

Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.

  1. Bowling Green’s explosive plays against Kent State’s defense

    58 pointsweakerstronger50th

    Bowling Green offense, 12th percentile · Kent State defense, 70th

  2. Bowling Green’s rushing EPA against Kent State’s defense

    36 pointsweakerstronger50th

    Bowling Green offense, 11th percentile · Kent State defense, 47th

  3. Kent State’s EPA/play against Bowling Green’s defense

    26 pointsweakerstronger50th

    Kent State offense, 1st percentile · Bowling Green defense, 27th

What’s at stake

Kent State

  • Mark Carney is ahead of Kenni Burns’s year-2 pace (3-6 vs. 0-9) — a win here widens the gap, a loss narrows it.

Bowling Green

  • Bowling Green is the MAC program whose Doyt Perry 1950s-1960s dynasty + Urban Meyer 2001-2002 ascent + Doyt Perry Stadium tradition define what historic-Ohio-MAC-football looks like.

The series

Bowling Green leads the series 47-16

63 meetings since 1962 · Kent State won the last meeting

Bowling Green wonKent State won1962: Bowling Green by 391963: Bowling Green by 151964: Bowling Green by 411965: Bowling Green by 11966: Kent State by 231967: Bowling Green by 11968: Bowling Green by 231969: Bowling Green by 71970: Bowling Green by 441971: Bowling Green by 131972: Kent State by 41973: Kent State by 141974: Bowling Green by 161975: Bowling Green by 261976: Bowling Green by 41977: Bowling Green by 41978: Bowling Green by 81979: Bowling Green by 111980: Bowling Green by 211981: Bowling Green by 61982: Bowling Green by 341983: Bowling Green by 351984: Bowling Green by 171985: Bowling Green by 121986: Bowling Green by 161987: Bowling Green by 101988: Kent State by 121989: Bowling Green by 231990: Bowling Green by 41991: Bowling Green by 281992: Bowling Green by 61993: Bowling Green by 331994: Bowling Green by 61995: Bowling Green by 111996: Bowling Green by 71997: Kent State by 91998: Bowling Green by 211999: Kent State by 142000: Bowling Green by 72001: Bowling Green by 172002: Bowling Green by 312003: Bowling Green by 92005: Bowling Green by 102006: Kent State by 352007: Bowling Green by 112008: Bowling Green by 152009: Bowling Green by 12010: Kent State by 242011: Kent State by 122012: Kent State by 72013: Bowling Green by 192014: Bowling Green by 102015: Bowling Green by 482016: Bowling Green by 352017: Bowling Green by 282018: Kent State by 72019: Kent State by 422020: Kent State by 382021: Kent State by 72022: Kent State by 342023: Bowling Green by 302024: Bowling Green by 212025: Kent State by 319622025
  • 2025Kent State 24-21Bowling Green lost 21-24 at Kent State. Chance to win started at 62%, low under 1%, high 97%.
  • 2024Bowling Green 27-6Bowling Green won 27-6 vs Kent State. Chance to win started at 95%, low 91%, high better than 99%.
  • 2023Bowling Green 49-19Bowling Green won 49-19 at Kent State. Chance to win started at 74%, low 64%, high better than 99%.
  • 2022Kent State 40-6Bowling Green lost 6-40 vs Kent State. Chance to win started at 33%, low under 1%, high 49%.
  • 2021Kent State 27-20Bowling Green lost 20-27 at Kent State. Chance to win started at 11%, low 2%, high 52%.

Each line is Bowling Green’s chance to win through that meeting. Bowling Green is 0-3 in the meetings since 2018 that were still close in the fourth quarter.

Face-off

What each fanbase carries into this one.

Kent State

The chip · vs the national media

Kent State fans have watched the program get written off as a MAC afterthought during the 1-23 stretch -- and answered with a coach promoted from the same staff that presided over it, turning the roster around fast enough to reclaim the Wagon Wheel in overtime.

What this game touches

The 1-23 stretch under Kenni Burns. Kent State won a single game combined across the 2023 and 2024 seasons before Burns was fired in April 2025 -- one of the worst two-year stretches in modern MAC history, and the standard every Mark Carney win is measured against.

Bowling Green

The chip · vs the national media

Falcon fans will remind you that Urban Meyer's whole legend started here, in their building — and they say the pundits who can't place Bowling Green on a map are the same ones who'll act surprised when the place produces the next big name.

What this game touches

The 4-8 reset under a famous new face. Eddie George's debut went 4-8 (2-6 MAC) — a transition year with a transfer-built roster that fell short of a bowl, the kind of rebuild season that tests whether a marquee name can translate to wins in Bowling Green.

Best players

Kent State

Bowling Green

Weather at kickoff

Typical at Doyt L. Perry Stadium: kickoff time makes little difference, scores run 86 to 88

Kent State at Bowling Green · Tuesday, Nov. 10 · 7 pm ET · Doyt L. Perry Stadium.

Weather score: 0 to 100, higher is better, for the first 3 hours and 20 minutes of the game. Ideal is 100, Comfortable 90 to 99, Mixed 75 to 89, Rough 50 to 74, Harsh under 50.

If it kicked off at

Typical at Doyt L. Perry Stadium: noon Saturdays score 88, 3:30 pm 86, 7:30 pm 88.

  • noon: 88, Mixed
  • 3:30 pm: 86, Mixed
  • 7:30 pm: 88, Mixed

Typical weather score at each kickoff time.

Home field

Bowling Green is worth +2.4 points (±4.4) more at home than on the road since 2018 — bottom third of FBS, 20th percentile.

33% at home, 33% on the road against FBS opponents (13-26 home, 17-34 away).

Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads -3.2 at home vs. away over 98 games — inside the ±6.7 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.

Night kickoff — historically worth about half a point more to the home side against the number, and not much more than that. The visitors travel about 121 miles to get here.

Season profile

Kent StateBowling Green
EPA/play, offense
Kent State · 1Bowling Green · 13
EPA/play, defense
Kent State · 39Bowling Green · 27
Success rate, offense
Kent State · 1Bowling Green · 18
Success rate, defense
Kent State · 17Bowling Green ·…
Explosive-play rate, offense
Kent State · 75Bowling Green · 12
Explosive-play rate, defense
Kent State · 70Bowling Green · 45
Rush EPA, offense
Kent State · 0Bowling Green · 11
Rush EPA, defense
Kent State · 47Bowling Green · 16
Pass EPA, offense
Kent State · 17Bowling Green · 35
Pass EPA, defense
Kent State · 38Bowling Green · 47

Week by week

Bowling Green

Wk 5: W 24-20 at Miami (OH)▲4M. (OH)Wk 6: W 38-10 vs Sacramento State▲28Sacramen…Wk 7: L 31-32 vs Ball State▼1Ball St.Wk 8: L 24-31 at Buffalo▼7BuffaloWk 9: L 10-23 at Western Michigan▼13W. Michi…
  • Wk 5Wat Miami (OH)24-20
  • Wk 6Wvs Sacramento State38-10
  • Wk 7Lvs Ball State31-32
  • Wk 8Lat Buffalo24-31
  • Wk 9Lat Western Michigan10-23

Kent State

Wk 5: L 10-13 vs Ohio▼3OhioWk 6: L 7-38 at Western Michigan▼31W. Michi…Wk 7: L 2-29 at South Florida▼27S. Flori…Wk 8: W 35-20 vs Akron▲15AkronWk 9: L 10-31 at Sacramento State▼21Sacramen…
  • Wk 5Lvs Ohio10-13
  • Wk 6Lat Western Michigan7-38
  • Wk 7Lat South Florida2-29
  • Wk 8Wvs Akron35-20
  • Wk 9Lat Sacramento State10-31

Power rating by week

Bowling Green is rated 2.9 points ahead as of week 10. Our power rating by week; higher is better.

-3-6-8Wk 0Wk 5Wk 10Bowling GreenKent State

Conference standings

Going into this game: place in the conference, then conference record.

Full Mid-American standings