North Carolina routs East Tennessee State 35-3

Team pages: East Tennessee State · North Carolina

East Tennessee State1-23
North Carolina2-035Final
Sat, Sep 12 · Kenan Stadium, Chapel Hill, N.C. · Crowd 42,362ACC Network

North Carolina routed East Tennessee State 35-3.

We had North Carolina favored. It won.

Next: East Tennessee State beat West Georgia 35-27, Sat Sep 19

Next: North Carolina lost to Clemson 28-20, Sat Sep 19

How it swung

Before kickoff, our ratings gave North Carolina a 69% chance, and the closing betting line (North Carolina was a 36.5-point favorite) put it above 99%.

North Carolina led by 7 after the first quarter and by 21 at the half.

Q1Q2Q3Q40+35+32
FinalNorth Carolina 35-3 East Tennessee StateNorth Carolina wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.
50%75%90%Q1Q2Q3Q4Play stopped, 83 min. Open it in Game conditions.83 minWon35-3Scores
50%75%90%Q1Q2Q3Q4Play stopped, 83 min. Open it in Game conditions.83 minWon35-3Scores
50%10%25%Q1Q2Q3Q4Play stopped, 83 min. Open it in Game conditions.83 minLowest 0%Lost3-35Scores
50%10%25%Q1Q2Q3Q4Play stopped, 83 min. Open it in Game conditions.83 minLowest 0%Lost3-35Scores

No single play moved the chance by 20 points.

No single play moved the chance by 20 points.

North Carolina’s chance to win after every play.
How to read this chartStarts from the pregame line (North Carolina -36.5), at 99% for North Carolina (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores.
The dashed blue line marks where play stopped for 1 hour 23 minutes in the third quarter. Thunder was reported at Raleigh / Durham airport (15 miles away) from 2:07 p.m. to 2:17 p.m., around the stoppage.

Every drive

North Carolina scored on 5 of its 9 drives; East Tennessee State on 1 of its 9.

North Carolina’s drives are teal, East Tennessee State’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.

own goalgoal lineQ1North Carolina: Punt, from 75 yards out to 70PuntEast Tennessee State: Interception, from 82 yards out to 55InterceptionNorth Carolina: Touchdown, from 58 yards out to 0TouchdownEast Tennessee State: Punt, from 85 yards out to 45PuntNorth Carolina: Touchdown, from 99 yards out to 0TouchdownQ2East Tennessee State: Missed field goal, from 75 yards out to 32Missed FGNorth Carolina: Punt, from 68 yards out to 68PuntEast Tennessee State: Punt, from 79 yards out to 71PuntNorth Carolina: Touchdown, from 57 yards out to 0TouchdownEast Tennessee State: End of half, from 75 yards out to 62End of halfQ3East Tennessee State: Turned over on downs, from 75 yards out to 64DownsNorth Carolina: Touchdown, from 36 yards out to 0TouchdownEast Tennessee State: Punt, from 75 yards out to 39PuntNorth Carolina: Touchdown, from 92 yards out to 0TouchdownEast Tennessee State: Punt, from 75 yards out to 69PuntNorth Carolina: Missed field goal, from 70 yards out to 29Missed FGQ4East Tennessee State: Field goal, from 70 yards out to 24Field goalNorth Carolina: Uncategorized, from 65 yards out to 51Uncategorized

Box score

North Carolina 35, East Tennessee State 3

East Tennessee State covered +36.5 by 4.5. The total, 38, stayed under 55.5.

East Tennessee StateNorth CarolinaTotal yardsEast Tennessee State 255North Carolina 427255427Passing yardsEast Tennessee State 178North Carolina 266178266Rushing yardsEast Tennessee State 77North Carolina 16177161First downsEast Tennessee State 16North Carolina 231623TurnoversEast Tennessee State 2North Carolina 020Time of possessionEast Tennessee State 33:44North Carolina 26:1633:4426:16
Team totalsEast Tennessee StateNorth Carolina
Total yards255427
Passing23 of 32, 178 yds18 of 26, 266 yds
Rushing35 for 77 yds27 for 161 yds
First downs1623
Third down8 of 165 of 9
Fourth down0 of 10 of 0
Turnovers20
Penalties7 for 67 yds5 for 40 yds
Time of possession33:4426:16

East Tennessee State leaders

  • Passing Mason Mims 23 of 31, 178 yds, 1 INT
  • Rushing TJ Peyton 13 for 52 yds; Jaiden Daniels 6 for 26 yds
  • Receiving Charlie Browder 3 for 50 yds; Suderian Harrison 7 for 44 yds

North Carolina leaders

  • Passing Billy Edwards 15 of 20, 244 yds, 2 TD
  • Rushing Benjamin Hall 4 for 49 yds; Jaylen McGill 5 for 40 yds
  • Receiving Jelani Thurman 4 for 71 yds, 1 TD; C.J. Sadler 3 for 66 yds

Play stopped for 83 minutes in the fourth quarter

84° at kickoff · 0.3 in of rain by radar over the stadium; the airport 9.3 miles away recorded no rain; another 0.6 in fell while play was stopped

Thunder was reported at Raleigh / Durham airport (15 miles away) from 2:07 p.m. to 2:17 p.m., around the stoppage.

September game-day temperatures at Kenan Stadium

Win chance with rain, wind and thunder from the nearest airport, by game timeQ1Q2Q3Q4North Carolina favoredEast Tennessee State favored100%Win chanceNorth CarolinaRaininches per 10 min0.1 inNo rain recordedWindmph, average and gusts20 mph40 mphHourly wind only at this airportThunder reportedStopped 83 min
Win chance with rain, wind and thunder from the nearest airport, by game timeQ1Q2Q3Q4North Carolina favoredEast Tennessee State favoredRain · inches per 10 min0.1 inNo rain recordedWind · miles per hour2040Hourly wind only at this airportThunder reportedStopped 83 min

Drag along the chart, or step through the game.

Third quarter, 0:19 left2:24 p.m.
East Tennessee State 0, North Carolina 35 · North Carolina 100% to win
During the stoppage: rain not reported · 74°
The clock stopped here for 83 minutes (2:24 p.m. to 3:48 p.m.), and thunder was reported at Raleigh / Durham airport.
O'Neill 15-yd run

Jump to

Where this weather comes fromMeasured at Durham - Duke North Heliport airport, 9.3 miles away. Rain is NOAA's radar-and-gauge estimate at the stadium and wind is an airport reading; neither is measured on the field. Game times come from the play-by-play, good to a minute or two. Source: National Weather Service, through the Iowa Environmental Mesonet; rain radar from NOAA MRMS, through Iowa State University. Field direction from OpenStreetMap contributors.

Before kickoff

Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.

Recent games

Last two games

East Tennessee State · 1-1

Rated 125th in our preseason ratings, 150th now.

1-1 in its last two — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.

W 48-14 vs Tusculum #383 of 668

East Tennessee State won 48-14 vs Tusculum. Chance to win started at 63%, low 58%, high better than 99%.

L 37-49 vs Campbell #225 of 668

lost by 12 as a 7-point favorite

East Tennessee State lost 37-49 vs Campbell. Chance to win started at 77%, low 8%, high 85%.

Last three games · 2025 season

North Carolina · 4-8

Rated 136th in our preseason ratings, 127th now.

Three straight losses.

L 19-42 @ NC State #49 of 667

lost by 23 as a 7.5-point underdog

North Carolina lost 19-42 at NC State. Chance to win started at 23%, low under 1%, high 23%.

L 25-32 vs Duke #68 of 667

lost by 7 as a 6.5-point underdog

North Carolina lost 25-32 vs Duke. Chance to win started at 43%, low 4%, high 66%.

L 12-28 @ Wake Forest #49 of 667

lost by 16 as a 3.5-point underdog

North Carolina lost 12-28 at Wake Forest. Chance to win started at 32%, low under 1%, high 32%.

W 20-15 vs Stanford #114 of 667

won by 5 as an 8.5-point favorite

North Carolina won 20-15 vs Stanford. Chance to win started at 78%, low 62%, high better than 99%.

W 27-10 @ Syracuse #102 of 667

won by 17 as a 1.5-point underdog

North Carolina won 27-10 at Syracuse. Chance to win started at 42%, low 15%, high better than 99%.

L 16-17 vs VirginiaTop 25 #50 of 667

lost by 1 as a 12.5-point underdog

North Carolina lost 16-17 vs Virginia. Chance to win started at 26%, low under 1%, high 56%.

L 18-21 @ California #74 of 667

lost by 3 as an 8.5-point underdog

North Carolina lost 18-21 at California. Chance to win started at 15%, low under 1%, high 26%.

L 10-38 vs ClemsonTop 25 #22 of 667

lost by 28 as a 15.5-point underdog

North Carolina lost 10-38 vs Clemson. Chance to win started at 8%, low under 1%, high 13%.

L 9-34 @ UCF #47 of 667

lost by 25 as a 7.5-point underdog

North Carolina lost 9-34 at UCF. Chance to win started at 23%, low under 1%, high 24%.

W 41-6 vs Richmond #161 of 667

won by 35 as a 24.5-point favorite

North Carolina won 41-6 vs Richmond. Chance to win started at 96%, low 95%, high better than 99%.

W 20-3 @ Charlotte #152 of 667

won by 17 as a 16.5-point favorite

North Carolina won 20-3 at Charlotte. Chance to win started at 84%, low 84%, high better than 99%.

L 14-48 vs TCUTop 25 #22 of 667

lost by 34 as a 3.5-point underdog

North Carolina lost 14-48 vs TCU. Chance to win started at 50%, low under 1%, high 74%.

Week by week

North Carolina

  • Wk 1Wat TCU15-10

East Tennessee State

Wk 1: L 37-49 vs Campbell▼12CampbellWk 1: W 48-14 vs Tusculum▲34Tusculum
  • Wk 1Lvs Campbell37-49
  • Wk 1Wvs Tusculum48-14

Line, fans and home field

The betting line, and the fans

Our model and the betting line don’t fully agree on North Carolina’s chances here.

50-50Model · 69%Line · 100%East Tennessee StateNorth Carolina

North Carolina favored by 36.5 · Total 55.5

How games like this usually go

North Carolina by 36.5, and it went to form

50%90%Q1Q2Q3Q450%90%Q1Q2Q3Q4

Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game

The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 411 games since 2025 with a favorite of 21.5 points or more.

The market

The spread moved 2 points toward North Carolina.

opened −34.5now −36.5

The total rose 1 point.

opened 54.5now 55.5

Spread: −34.5 → −36.5 · Total: 54.5 → 55.5

Weather at kickoff

Hot, with rain. Feels like 87° at kickoff.

East Tennessee State at North Carolina · Saturday, Sept. 12, 2026 · Kenan Stadium, Chapel Hill

  • 87°feels like at kickoff
  • 0.03 inrain at kickoff
  • 57weather score, Rough
  • Roughestof the day's 7 kickoff times

At kickoff, Sept. 12, 2026.

Weather score: 0 to 100, higher is better, for the first 3 hours and 20 minutes of the game. Ideal is 100, Comfortable 90 to 99, Mixed 75 to 89, Rough 50 to 74, Harsh under 50.

Later kickoff times scored higher that Saturday

Games in this time zone used 7 kickoff times that day, local time (kickoffs within 30 minutes of each other count as one). This game, ringed, was the roughest of the day's seven kickoff times. At Kenan Stadium that day, a 7:30 pm kickoff would have scored 95, against 57 at noon.

The roughest kickoff time is the lowest of the day's times. It can still be Mixed or Comfortable.

  • noon: 57, Rough (this game)
  • 1 pm: 60, Rough
  • 2 pm: 65, Rough
  • 3:30 pm: 68, Rough
  • 6 pm: 89, Mixed
  • 7 pm: 94, Comfortable
  • 7:30 pm: 95, Comfortable

Weather score at each kickoff time.

Tap a dot to read that kickoff time.

At kickoff, Sept. 12, 2026. Wind is not drawn here; gusts are in each score.

Home field

North Carolina is worth +1.6 points (±3.3) more at home than on the road since 2018 — bottom third of FBS, 11th percentile.

51% at home, 43% on the road against FBS opponents (22-21 home, 19-25 away).

Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads -1.2 at home vs. away over 95 games — inside the ±5.6 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.

The visitors travel about 188 miles to get here.

Where next