North Carolina 15-10 TCU (Aug 29, 2026) Final Score

Team pages: North Carolina · TCU

Aer Lingus College Football Classic

North Carolina1-015

TCU0-110Final

Sat, Aug 29 · Aviva Stadium, Dublin (neutral site)

North Carolina beat TCU 15-10 as a 7.5-point underdog.

We had TCU favored. North Carolina won.

Next: North Carolina beat East Tennessee State 35-3, Sat Sep 12

Next: TCU beat Grambling 63-7, Sat Sep 12

Top comment in the game thread

Found one of the former nfl players

Q3 1:49 · r/CFB game thread · Sat, Aug 29

How it swung

The turning point: Craig incomplete to Scott, turnover on downs (Q4, 4:05). North Carolina went from 54% to 72% to win.

Before kickoff, our ratings gave North Carolina a 19% chance, and the closing betting line (North Carolina was a 7.5-point underdog) put it at 27%.

Safety

North Carolina · Q2 1:49TargetingQ2 0:46

FinalNorth Carolina 15-10 TCUNorth Carolina wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.

The two plays that swung it

1Q2 13:164th and 10Craig incomplete to Pimpton, turnover on downsNorth Carolina 20% → 35% (+15)
2Q4 4:054th and 2Craig incomplete to Scott, turnover on downsNorth Carolina 54% → 72% (+18)

The two plays that swung it

1Q2 13:164th and 10Craig incomplete to Pimpton, turnover on downsTCU 80% → 65% (−15)
2Q4 4:054th and 2Craig incomplete to Scott, turnover on downsTCU 46% → 28% (−18)

What fans said, play by play

The line in bold above each quote is written by our model from the thread’s comments and the play-by-play.

Q3 1:49TCU players hit Edwards late, drawing unnecessary roughness penalty as fans mock Dykes5D chess play there by edwardsr/CFB game threadQuoted at the top of the page.

North Carolina’s chance to win after every play.

How to read this chart

Starts from the pregame line (TCU -7.5), at 27% for North Carolina (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores. Outlined diamonds mark rare plays. Under the scores, r/CFB comments per minute from fans with a TCU or North Carolina flair (218 and 421); both sides share one scale, regulation only.

Watch the plays

The bar and the arrow show North Carolina’s chance to win after each play; the logo is the team the play helped.

Every drive

North Carolina scored on 3 of its 10 drives; TCU on 2 of its 10.

North Carolina’s drives are teal, TCU’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.

From TCU’s side

TCU’s best moment: Burrell 42-yd field goal no good (Q4 11:58). It lifted TCU’s win chance by 14 points.

How TCU fans took it: “Shoutout to my friends that traveled halfway around the world to watch that” r/CFB game thread

“this TCU qb really should just run it sometimes, I dunno what's goin on with him”

A North Carolina fan

How fans reacted

Quiet

The jump was quiet; the crowd was busy.

The winner fell to 10%.

Box score

North Carolina 15, TCU 10

North Carolina covered +7.5 by 12.5. The total, 25, stayed under 46.5.

Team totals	North Carolina	TCU
Total yards	322	281
Passing	16 of 28, 232 yds	20 of 32, 175 yds
Rushing	29 for 90 yds	39 for 106 yds
First downs	20	18
Third down	3 of 11	7 of 16
Fourth down	1 of 1	1 of 5
Turnovers	2	1
Penalties	3 for 20 yds	11 for 90 yds
Time of possession	26:58	33:02

North Carolina leaders

Passing Billy Edwards 16 of 28, 232 yds
Rushing Benjamin Hall 11 for 36 yds; Jaylen McGill 5 for 33 yds, 1 TD
Receiving Jelani Thurman 4 for 94 yds; Jordan Shipp 5 for 71 yds

TCU leaders

Passing Jaden Craig 20 of 32, 175 yds
Rushing Jeremy Payne 25 for 142 yds; Jon Denman 8 for 19 yds, 1 TD
Receiving Ed Small 9 for 65 yds; Ka'Morreun Pimpton 1 for 40 yds

Before kickoff

Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.

Recent games

Last three games · 2025 season

North Carolina · 4-8

Rated 136th in our preseason ratings.

L 19-42 @ NC State #49 of 667

lost by 23 as a 7.5-point underdog

L 25-32 vs Duke #68 of 667

lost by 7 as a 6.5-point underdog

L 12-28 @ Wake Forest #49 of 667

lost by 16 as a 3.5-point underdog

W 20-15 vs Stanford #114 of 667

won by 5 as an 8.5-point favorite

W 27-10 @ Syracuse #102 of 667

won by 17 as a 1.5-point underdog

L 16-17 vs VirginiaTop 25 #50 of 667

lost by 1 as a 12.5-point underdog

L 18-21 @ California #74 of 667

lost by 3 as an 8.5-point underdog

L 10-38 vs ClemsonTop 25 #22 of 667

lost by 28 as a 15.5-point underdog

L 9-34 @ UCF #47 of 667

lost by 25 as a 7.5-point underdog

W 41-6 vs Richmond #161 of 667

won by 35 as a 24.5-point favorite

W 20-3 @ Charlotte #152 of 667

won by 17 as a 16.5-point favorite

L 14-48 vs TCUTop 25 #22 of 667

lost by 34 as a 3.5-point underdog

Last three games · 2025 season

TCU · 9-4

Rated 49th in our preseason ratings.

W 30-27 vs USCTop 25 #24 of 667

won by 3 as a 4.5-point underdog

W 45-23 vs CincinnatiTop 25 #58 of 667

won by 22 as a 3.5-point favorite

W 17-14 @ HoustonTop 25 #65 of 667

won by 3 as a 1.5-point favorite

L 13-44 @ BYUTop 25 #24 of 667

lost by 31 as a 2.5-point underdog

L 17-20 vs Iowa StateTop 25 #50 of 667

lost by 3 as a 7.5-point favorite

W 23-17 @ West Virginia #95 of 667

won by 6 as a 16.5-point favorite

W 42-36 vs Baylor #34 of 667

won by 6 as a 3.5-point favorite

L 28-41 @ Kansas StateTop 25 #48 of 667

lost by 13 as a 2.5-point favorite

W 35-21 vs Colorado #56 of 667

won by 14 as a 14.5-point favorite

L 24-27 @ Arizona StateTop 25 #33 of 667

lost by 3 as a 2.5-point underdog

W 35-24 vs SMUTop 25 #23 of 667

won by 11 as a 6.5-point favorite

W 42-21 vs Abilene Christian #128 of 667

won by 21 as a 41.5-point favorite

W 48-14 @ North Carolina #59 of 667

won by 34 as a 3.5-point favorite

Matchups

Biggest mismatch: North Carolina’s rushing EPA against TCU, 63 points

Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.

North Carolina’s explosive plays against TCU’s defense
North Carolina offense, 20th percentile · TCU defense, 80th
North Carolina’s rushing EPA against TCU’s defense
North Carolina offense, 34th percentile · TCU defense, 97th
North Carolina’s EPA/play against TCU’s defense
North Carolina offense, 45th percentile · TCU defense, 95th

Season profile, all the rows

Season profile

North CarolinaTCU

EPA/play, offense

EPA/play, defense

Success rate, offense

Success rate, defense

Explosive-play rate, offense

Explosive-play rate, defense

Rush EPA, offense

Rush EPA, defense

Pass EPA, offense

Pass EPA, defense

The series

North Carolina leads the series 3-1

4 meetings since 1940 · TCU won the last meeting

2025TCU 48-14
1997North Carolina 31-10
1994North Carolina 27-17
1940North Carolina 21-14

Each line is TCU’s chance to win through that meeting. Older meetings have no play by play, so no line.

Line, fans and home field

The betting line, and the fans

North Carolina fans are in a better mood than TCU fans (55th vs 1st among FBS fanbases), even with TCU favored.

TCU favored by 7.5 · Total 46.5

How games like this usually go

TCU by 7.5, on the usual path until Q3 3:39

Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game

The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 385 games since 2025 with a favorite of 7.5 to 14.5 points.

The market

The books’ cut: 4.2%, the margin built into the odds

North Carolina upsets TCU 15-10