Sat Nov 7, 12 pm ET CBS Sports Network · UNCNorth Carolina is 4-4 · First meeting between Candle and Bill Belichick as head coaches · UConn’s chance to win: 42% (the site’s model)
how are all classes gone i have to enroll tomorrow to my classes and all the badm, opim, accounting classes i had in my cart or notes are all gone, so what tf am i supposed to do next semester then? why do the offer such low amount of classes during spring it’s honestly jarring
Anyone willing to swap PNB 2776 lab for Thursday 9am-12? I honestly would prefer Wednesday from 9-12, but let me know what anyone wants to trade.
Anybody taken intro to puppetry with Jungmin Song? Is this a hard class and what is the prof like?
Fan mood · last 3 weeks · more upbeat than 3 in 4 FBS fan bases
Offense: 38th of 138 per play. Defense: 69th.
Through 8 games. Each tick is an FBS team, adjusted for opponent strength (CFB Zeitgeist model); the dot is UConn. The other two rows are where UConn stands furthest from the middle. Early-season numbers move a lot.
4 games left
Sat Nov 7vs. UNCNorth Carolina (4-4)CBS Sports Network42%
Sat Nov 14vs. JMUJames Madison (7-2)CBS Sports Network32%
Sat Nov 21vs. ODUOld Dominion (2-7)CBS Sports Network84%
Sat Nov 28at WYOWyoming (5-3)58%
Percent: UConn’s chance to win, from the site’s model. Records are through today. Networks as announced; the rest are set closer to kickoff.
How the season got here
Where UConn stood among 138 FBS programs by stature after each game (1st is the highest; the CFB Zeitgeist ledger).
Oct 26–Nov 1L 26-35 at AFAir Force2 headlines · 77th of 138
Each week as this page showed it at the time. Weeks marked rebuilt came before this page existed: they were built afterward from only what was known by the end of that week.
Our poach model, on his record so far, the win chances for every game he has left, his program, his pay and his background. Ranked against the 132 FBS head coaches this season. The zone words describe the market’s interest; none of them says he is leaving.
What drives his number
The biggest factors in his profile, each against the typical FBS head coach today. The games he has left are priced into the number, not listed here.
▼ Lower
His first season at UConn
▲ Higher
No record for him here before this season · his first year in the job
▲ Higher
Age 46 · neither at his alma mater nor in the state he was born in
How good is this number? It ranks a head coach who leaves for another head-coaching job ahead of one who stays 78 to 82% of the time, and its average came within a point of the share who actually left. What it can’t do
Tested on every FBS head coach from 2012 through 2025, each season scored by a model fit only on the seasons before it. From three games on, given one coach who left for a head-coaching job elsewhere or an NFL coordinator job and one who stayed, it ranked the one who left ahead 79 to 82% of the time; in a season’s first two games, 78%. Its average chance came within a point of the share who actually left. It counts a move a coach makes while he still holds the job; when his school ends it, that doesn’t count, even if another school then hires him.
The live number prices the games he has left with the power model’s ratings from this season. The test priced them with each team’s rating from the season before, because ratings made during past seasons were not kept, so this live version could not be replayed.
Programs new to FBS have no FBS record before this season in the data it reads, so their coaches are scored without one.
It is frozen: it learns nothing from 2026 until a deliberate refit.
A coach hired in December needs his background (age, alma mater, the state he was born in) added before his first game, or he shows as not rated.
Fans
Fan chatter
Oct 31L 26-35 at Air ForceReally should have hired Andy Kotelnicki instead of Candle. This will be a mistake that comes back to bite us in the ass and is starting to look like Paul Pasqualoni 2.0CONNUConn fan
Oct 23W 35-16 vs. MassachusettsNot a fan of Candle spamming these runs and wasting downsCONNUConn fan
Oct 10W 34-20 at TempleCandle hasn't been making the best decisions this seasonCONNUConn fan
Earlier weeks
Oct 3L 41-42 vs. SyracuseCandle ushering in the Edsall 3.0 era lolCONNUConn fan
Sep 12L 14-38 vs. MarylandCandle has found/developed a lot of NFL talent over the yearsCONNUConn fan
A few stories about him this week
Sat Nov 7: North Carolina
80th of 104 FBS head coaches · from a few outlets and r/CFB
Gold: stories about him each day. W and L: his games.
Gold: stories we tracked each season, drawn on a square-root scale so a quiet year still shows. Hatched: before we started tracking (2021). Earlier years had thinner coverage, so compare within a stop, not across decades.
Stories are headlines grouped by what they are about, counted through Nov 4.
Stats
Big games
Pick a job to see its years on their own.
The big-game ledger
How he does in the games that matter most — rivalry record, performance broken out by real opponent tier, one-score games, and his toughest historical matchup.
13-7 against his rivals at Toledo. Nobody he faced three or more times there has a winning record against him.
’19 L’20 W · wire to wire’21 W · wire to wire’22 L · blew a 1-pt lead’23 W · erased a 18-pt deficit’24 L
covered the spread
Performance by opponent class
Blue Blood
0-1 0.0%ATS —
Power Program
1-4 20.0%ATS —
National Program
4-8 33.3%ATS 5-7 12 of 12
Regional Program
67-31 68.4%ATS 47-51 98 of 98
Signature games
0-5 vs. AP top 25 · 0-2 vs. the top 10
Every AP-ranked regular-season opponent, by rank (#1 at top) and year
’16’17’18’21’22
win loss · higher = higher-ranked opponent · dashed line = top 10
Signature wins
WBG
Bowling Green · 2017
66-37
RivalQuality opponent
WNI
Northern Illinois · 2025
42-3
RivalQuality opponent
WPI
Pittsburgh · 2024
48-46
UpsetQuality opponentBowl/CFP stakes
Signature losses
LBG
Bowling Green · 2019
7-20
RivalUpset
LNI
Northern Illinois · 2018
15-38
Rival
LBG
Bowling Green · 2022
35-42
RivalUpset
Tags describe each game; they aren’t scores. The weighting that picks these games is still being tested.
The big-game ledger
How he does in the games that matter most — rivalry record, performance broken out by real opponent tier, one-score games, and his toughest historical matchup.
One-score games
0-2
0.0% · margin ≤8
Against the spread
5-3
all 8 had a line
Performance by opponent class
National Program
0-1 0.0%
Regional Program
3-3 50.0%
The big-game ledger
How he does in the games that matter most — rivalry record, performance broken out by real opponent tier, one-score games, and his toughest historical matchup.
13-7 against his rivals. Nobody he faced three or more times has a winning record against him.
’19 L’20 W · wire to wire’21 W · wire to wire’22 L · blew a 1-pt lead’23 W · erased a 18-pt deficit’24 L
covered the spread
Performance by opponent class
Blue Blood
0-1 0.0%ATS —
Power Program
1-4 20.0%ATS —
National Program
4-9 30.8%ATS 5-8 13 of 13
Regional Program
70-34 67.3%ATS 51-53 104 of 104
Signature games
0-5 vs. AP top 25 · 0-2 vs. the top 10
Every AP-ranked regular-season opponent, by rank (#1 at top) and year
’16’17’18’21’22
win loss · higher = higher-ranked opponent · dashed line = top 10
Signature wins
WBG
Bowling Green · 2017
66-37
RivalQuality opponent
WNI
Northern Illinois · 2025
42-3
RivalQuality opponent
WPI
Pittsburgh · 2024
48-46
UpsetQuality opponentBowl/CFP stakes
Signature losses
LBG
Bowling Green · 2019
7-20
RivalUpset
LNI
Northern Illinois · 2018
15-38
Rival
LBG
Bowling Green · 2022
35-42
RivalUpset
Tags describe each game; they aren’t scores. The weighting that picks these games is still being tested.
ATS is his record against the spread: did his team beat the closing betting line, winning by more than it or losing by less? Lines start in 2013; a dash means fewer than 6 of those games had one. One-score games carry no spread record: a big favorite that wins a close game has almost always failed to cover, so that number would say nothing about the coach.
Where each stint’s offense sat between run-first and pass-first, and how far it moved from one season to the next, against the FBS-wide average of 41% pass. The band is that stint’s real season-to-season range, not a fixed-width box.
Pass rate — share of offensive plays that were pass attemptsfirst covered seasonmost recent covered seasonfull season-to-season range (3+ covered seasons)
How much that moved, against every other stint
Season-to-season pass-rate range for all 449 FBS coaching stints with at least three covered seasons, 2004–2025.
Typical stint7.010.3 median14.8middle half of all stints
Toledo11.4pt#191 of 449 · a typical amount
Building the roster
Five numbers on how he actually stocks a roster, from signing day to draft day.
None of his UConn classes is ranked and fully his yet. Across his other stops, his own classes averaged #76 nationally.
TOToledo
2018
#67
His class
2019
#73
His class
2020
#69
His class
2021
#67
His class
2022
#91
His class
2023
#101
His class
2024
#66
His class
2025
#73
His class
UCUConn
2026
#110
Transition
Across every program: 8 ranked classes of his own, averaging #76 nationally.
His class — he had the full signing cycleTransition — he was hired mid-cycle
Rank is each signing class’s national recruiting rank (#1 is best). Only a class he had a full signing cycle to build counts as his; inherited and mid-transition classes still show here, faded, but stay out of the average.
Followed him here
at least17players
TOToledo→UCUConn2026
At least 17 players followed him from Toledo to UConn.
Avery Dunn DL
Chamberlain Campbell DE
Dominic Rivera OL
Isiah Switzer OL
Javon Brown WR
Jayden Price DB
Jediyah Willoughby WR
Julian Allen WR
K'Von Sherman LB
Kalieb Osborne QB
Kamren Flowers WR
Raphael Greene-Nyarko OL
Rickey Williams LB
Ryder Treadway WR
Terrence Moore OL
Tyler McKinstry DB
Zy'marion Lang WR
Players who transferred from his old program to his new one through the portal in the same year he made the move. Name-matching across data sources misses some, so every count is a floor, not an exact number.
Roster ownership
Roster ownership
73%His own players
of his 2026 roster arrived on his watch — 85 of 116 players. The other 31 are holdovers from before he was hired.
Arrived under him 85Inherited 31
Of his own players on this roster, 55% came through the transfer portal; the rest are non-portal arrivals (high-school signees, JUCO transfers, walk-ons).
Everyone he has brought in, 2026–2026Counting players who have since left: 55% of the 85 arrivals we can classify came through the portal.
“His own” means the player arrived while he was head coach; “inherited” means a predecessor brought him in.
Size up front
Size up front
−6 lbAgainst the FBS average
Offensive linemen on his Toledo rosters have averaged 6 lb lighter than the FBS average (2016–2025) — lighter than 87% of FBS coaching runs since 2010. In the three seasons before he arrived, Toledo’s line averaged within a few pounds of the FBS average.
Toledo2016–2025−6 lb
−10FBS avg+10lb
His seasonsSame program, the seasons before he arrivedMiddle half of FBS coaching runs since 2010
Average listed weight of every offensive lineman on each season’s roster, holdovers included, against every FBS roster that season (2010 on; a program needs 3+ seasons under him to appear). Weights are the ones programs publish, and programs list differently. This describes size only — not scheme, and not quality.
Where he recruits
FLTop state
is his biggest recruiting state: 5 of 18 signees (28%) across his 2026–2026 tenure, drawn from 9 states in all. Next: IN (3).
Where his signees came from, 2026–2026 (18 high-school, JUCO and prep signees)
33% of his signees come from FL and its 2 border states (GA 1).
By region
Midwest
7
South
7
Northeast
4
Roster distance from campus (Pratt & Whitney Stadium, CT)
median hometown distance
579 mi
within 100 mi
13%
within 500 mi
42%
beyond 1,000 mi
23%
105 of 116 roster players with a known hometown (90% coverage)
The map counts signed recruits across his tenure; the distance figures cover his current roster, transfers and walk-ons included. Two different groups, kept separate on purpose.
News
Stories about him
Headlines, grouped by what they are about. Each is the outlet’s own.
Some of the discipline things that we have to continue to clean up, and we got to get to work on that
We’ve got some familiarity with guys there, and they’ve done a good job dealing with some of the issues with having a program for the first year which we are going through as well
Some of the discipline things that we have to continue to clean up, and we got to get to work on that
Dailycampus··2 days after UConn's 2026 game against Syracuse
We’ve got some familiarity with guys there, and they’ve done a good job dealing with some of the issues with having a program for the first year which we are going through as well
Dailycampus··the day before the Southern Miss game
Career
Hires into jobs like this
Hired into programs rated 13 to 13 (Regional Program IV tier). Rough match, not calibrated yet — ranked on what the job inherited alone. Coaches hired into this same job aren’t used as comps.
Of the 5 closest comps, 2 had the program higher than he found it by the end of his run and 3 lower. Median stay: 4 seasons.
Every coach hired into a Regional Program IV job since 1990 (89): typically -0.9 after year 1, -1.2 after year 2.
Typical size for position, once adjusted for position mix.
Recruits younger transfers than most — more of a development bet.
Avg. size (raw)
6′2″, 235 lbs
across 47 of 53 arrivals — unadjusted for position mix
Size vs. position-typical
+4.9 lbs
#104 of 255 · middle half
Avg. class year
Fr
#255 of 255 · bottom quarter
Avg. portal rating
3.0★
rated arrivals only
Top states: OH (10), FL (6), GA (5), MI (3), NJ (3)
Who won the portal our read
Talent added
53.6
position-weighted
Talent lost
53.1
position-weighted
Net
+0.5
arrivals minus departures
Best addition: Jake Merklinger (QB) from Tennessee
Biggest loss: Nick Evers (QB) to Missouri
Position-value-weighted (QB/CB weighted highest, depth-decayed within each position) — the same scoring engine as the Portal Heat feed, not a separate grade.
Jason Candle moved Toledo from National Program III to National Program II in 10 seasons.
+3.5 pts over 10 seasons · bottom 17% of 10+-season tenures (202 in sample)
3rd-best Toledo tenure of 13 by the numbers.
Followed Matt Campbell (2011–2015) · succeeded by Mike Jacobs (2026–now).
System Shift, on arrival
System Shift, on departure
swipe to see every season
Season
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
Trend
Record & result
Record
1-0
9-4
11-3
7-6
6-6
4-2
7-6
9-5
11-3
8-5
8-4
Postseason
W bowl
L bowl
L bowl
L bowl
—
—
L bowl
W bowl
L bowl
W bowl
—
Coordinators
OC
—
Brian Wright
Brian Wright
Brian Wright
Brian Wright
Michael (Mike) Hallett / Robert Weiner
Michael (Mike) Hallett / Robert Weiner
Michael (Mike) Hallett / Robert Weiner
Michael (Mike) Hallett / Robert Weiner
Michael (Mike) Hallett / Robert Weiner
Michael (Mike) Hallett / Robert Weiner
DC
—
Brian George
Brian George
Brian George
Brian George
Vince Kehres / Ross Watson / Craig Kuligowski
Vince Kehres / Ross Watson / Craig Kuligowski
Vince Kehres / Ross Watson / Craig Kuligowski
Vince Kehres / Ross Watson / Craig Kuligowski
Vince Kehres / Ross Watson
Vince Kehres / Ross Watson
Outcome — opponent-adjusted efficiency percentile
Offense
—
93
87
66
49
70
96
45
86
18
72
Defense
—
52
44
23
7
78
90
80
76
85
99
Tendencies — play-by-play, neutral script
1st-down pass%
—
37.5
38.9
37.5
33.0
38.0
43.4
40.4
33.3
42.5
43.8
Red-zone pass%
—
45.0
29.2
43.0
31.7
47.1
32.9
38.7
44.0
48.1
33.0
4th-down go%opp. territory
—
26.5
22.4
30.8
45.0
50.0
29.5
47.6
41.7
48.0
38.2
Recruiter or developer?
Outperforms his recruiting talent, on both sides of the ball.
Offense vs. talent
+22.6 pts
#32 of 208 · top quarter
Defense vs. talent
+17.2 pts
#39 of 208 · top quarter
Recruiting talent is team-wide (no offense/defense split exists in the source data) -- both sides are scored against the same talent input, only the outcome is side-specific.
Roster construction · portal era
Barely touches the portal — recruits and develops his own.
Portal arrivals
42
3.0★ avg rating
Portal departures
57
left via the portal
Net portal flow
-15
#142 of 187 FBS stints
Who they bring in
Typical size for position, once adjusted for position mix.
Recruits older, more experienced transfers than most.
Avg. size (raw)
6′3″, 240 lbs
across 33 of 42 arrivals — unadjusted for position mix
Size vs. position-typical
+5.4 lbs
#95 of 255 · middle half
Avg. class year
Jr
#32 of 255 · top quarter
Top states: OH (9), FL (7), IN (3), MI (3), IL (3)
Who won the portal our read
Talent added
52.6
position-weighted
Talent lost
56.5
position-weighted
Net
-3.9
arrivals minus departures
Best addition: Tucker Gleason (QB) from Georgia Tech
Biggest loss: Dequan Finn (QB) to Baylor
Position-value-weighted (QB/CB weighted highest, depth-decayed within each position) — the same scoring engine as the Portal Heat feed, not a separate grade.
Does the system survive a coordinator change?
OC: Brian Wright → Michael (Mike) Hallett (co) / Robert Weiner (co) · 2020The offense improved
2-season window either side.
1st-down pass rate: 35.3% → 40.7% (+5.4 pts)
Confound, shown not hidden: only 61% of offensive production returned the year the coordinator changed — the roster turned over at the same time, not just the play-caller.
DC: Brian George → Vince Kehres / Ross Watson (co) / Craig Kuligowski (co) · 2020The defense leveled up
2-season window either side.
Where the roster comes from, by position
Grows Tight end from high school
82%
#154 of 188 stints
Grows Tackle from high school
76%
#171 of 223 stints
Postseason detail2015: Beat Temple 32-17 Marmot Boca Raton Bowl2016: Lost to App State 28-31 Raycom Media Camellia Bowl2017: Lost to App State 0-34 Dollar General Bowl2018: Lost to Florida International 32-35 Makers Wanted Bahamas Bowl2021: Lost to Middle Tennessee 24-31 Bahamas Bowl2022: Beat Liberty 21-19 RoofClaim.com Boca Raton Bowl2023: Lost to Wyoming 15-16 Barstool Sports Arizona Bowl2024: Beat Pittsburgh 48-46 GameAbove Sports Bowl
13 NFL Draft picks: Kareem Hunt (2017), Michael Roberts (2017), Treyvon Hester (2017), Logan Woodside (2018), Diontae Johnson (2019), Ka'dar Hollman (2019), Tycen Anderson (2022), Samuel Womack (2022) + 5 more
Toledo
