Next game: vs Utah State
San Diego State and Utah State are even on paper
Each unit against the one it meets, by national percentile this season. A filled dot is the attack and a ring is the defense it meets; the first name is the attack. Further right is better for both.
San Diego State offense against Utah State defense
Utah State offense against San Diego State defense
Percentiles are against all FBS teams this season.
Key stats
Each bar is the team’s national rank as a percentile. A longer bar is better, for defense too.
All 98 stats
FBS rankings · 2026 season · all stats vs 136 FBS programs
| Player | # | G | Cmp/Att | Pct | Yds | Y/A | TD | INT | Rate | ZPR | QBR | Adj ANY/A | Sack% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pocket Passer · -0.10 EPA/play | 4 | 7 | 82 / 150 | 54.7 | 896 | 6.0 | 7 | 5 | 113.6 | 24 | 33.6 | 4.8 | 5.1 | |
Yards by week → Pocket passerBalanced passer who operates within the system, without one standout number carrying the profile. 150 pass attempts and 27 carries in 7 games. Fewer passes and runs a game than most FBS quarterbacks who play every week. This week's matchup — QB Denegal operates within the system without forcing anything. Brosterhous is the one who extends plays on the move until something opens up. Season receipt Yards / attempt6.2 bottom 9th percentile · FBS QBs, min. 80 attempts Completion %55.2% bottom 7th percentile · FBS QBs, min. 80 attempts Trait fingerprint Plays like View Jayden Denegal's full player page | ||||||||||||||
| +0.24 EPA/play | 11 | 4 | 43 / 69 | 62.3 | 552 | 8 | 2 | 3 | 130.4 | 44 | 53.2 | 6.4 | 1.4 | |
Yards by week → | ||||||||||||||
| -0.59 EPA/play | 13 | 3 | 8 / 14 | 57.1 | 66 | 4.7 | 1 | 1 | 106.0 | — | 49.4 | — | — | |
Yards by week → | ||||||||||||||
| Player | # | G | Car | Yds | Avg | TD | Long | Stuff% | 10+% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Balanced Back · +0.24 EPA/play | 21 | 8 | 108 | 613 #46 FBS | 5.7 | 5 | 55 | 14.8 | 13.9 | |
Yards by week → Balanced backPlays within the scheme — consistent production without a dominant dimension. 108 carries and 11 catches in 8 games. More touches a game than most FBS running backs who play every week. This week's matchup — RB Kinnard does a little of everything without one standout trait. Jacobs is the one who does a little of everything without one standout trait. Season receipt Yards / carry6.0 75th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Yards / reception9.2 72th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Trait fingerprint Plays like View Javion Kinnard's full player page | ||||||||||
| Workhorse · +0.02 EPA/play | 7 | 6 | 103 | 473 | 4.6 | 5 | 67 | 19.4 | 11.7 | |
Yards by week → Workhorse· Boom-or-bustBuilt to take 20+ carries per game. Volume is the value. his yards come in chunks — feast or famine 103 carries and 1 catch in 6 games. More touches a game than most FBS running backs who play every week. This week's matchup — RB Sutton just keeps getting the ball, series after series. Jacobs is the one who does a little of everything without one standout trait. Season receipt Weight225 lb 92th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Receiving share1.0% bottom 4th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Plays like View Lucky Sutton's full player page | ||||||||||
| Balanced Back · +0.02 EPA/play | 23 | 4 | 42 | 169 | 4.0 | 2 | 27 | — | — | |
Yards by week → Balanced backPlays within the scheme — consistent production without a dominant dimension. This week's matchup — RB Lucas does a little of everything without one standout trait. Jacobs is the one who does a little of everything without one standout trait. Season receipt Yards / carry4.1 bottom 14th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Yards / reception1.0 bottom 1th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Trait fingerprint Plays like View Josiah Lucas's full player page | ||||||||||
| -0.18 EPA/play | 21 | — | 28 | 59 | 2.1 | 1 | 12 | — | — | |
| Player | # | G | Rec | Yds | Avg | TD | Long | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Possession Receiver · +0.24 EPA/play | 87 | — | 32 | 444 | 13.9 | 4 #70 FBS | 71 | |
Possession receiver· Boom-or-bustReliable target who converts on critical downs. Not flashy; consistently productive. his yards come in chunks — feast or famine 32 catches in 7 games. About as many catches a game as a typical FBS receiver who plays every week. This week's matchup — WR Mozer moves the chains on third down. Wood is the one who moves the chains on third down. Season receipt Yards / reception14.0 55th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions EPA / play (adj)0.2 bottom 22th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Trait fingerprint Plays like View Marcus Mozer's full player page | ||||||||
| Deep Threat · +0.69 EPA/play | 12 | 8 | 21 | 357 | 17 | 3 | 52 | |
Yards by week → Deep threat· Return threatStretches the field vertically. Every snap is a potential big play. a house-call threat every time he fields it This week's matchup — WR Hawkins beats you over the top. Wood is the one who moves the chains on third down. Season receipt Yards / reception17.2 85th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Plays like View Jaylon Hawkins's full player page | ||||||||
| Possession Receiver · +0.45 EPA/play | 3 | 8 | 23 | 246 | 10.7 | 2 | 35 | |
Yards by week → Possession receiverReliable target who converts on critical downs. Not flashy; consistently productive. This week's matchup — WR Acevedo moves the chains on third down. Wood is the one who moves the chains on third down. Season receipt Yards / reception11.8 bottom 32th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Reception volume23 bottom 42th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Trait fingerprint Plays like View Nathan Acevedo's full player page | ||||||||
| Possession Receiver · +0.59 EPA/play | 5 | 8 | 15 | 190 | 12.7 | 0 | 34 | |
Yards by week → Possession receiverReliable target who converts on critical downs. Not flashy; consistently productive. This week's matchup — WR Jr. moves the chains on third down. Wood is the one who moves the chains on third down. Season receipt Yards / reception12.6 bottom 40th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions TD rate0.0% bottom 10th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Trait fingerprint Plays like View Bert Emanuel Jr.'s full player page | ||||||||
| Possession Receiver · +0.27 EPA/play | 2 | 7 | 17 | 181 | 10.6 | 2 | 42 | |
Yards by week → Possession receiver· Money-downReliable target who converts on critical downs. Not flashy; consistently productive. lives on the sticks and moves the chains The most common profile in its group this season — 279 of 467 classified this way. Played in 7 of 10 games this season · freshman · 3-star, 2023 class View Jordan Napier's full player page | ||||||||
| +0.22 EPA/play | 17 | 5 | 9 | 129 | 14.3 | 1 | 41 | |
Yards by week → | ||||||||
| +0.13 EPA/play | 14 | 3 | 7 | 75 | 10.7 | 0 | 38 | |
Yards by week → | ||||||||
| Red-Zone Weapon · +0.65 EPA/play | 15 | 4 | 8 | 55 | 6.9 | 2 | 19 | |
Yards by week → Red-zone weaponThe first read called near the goal line — size and catch radius do the rest. 11 of 166 TEs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TD rate25.0% 96th percentile · FBS TEs, min. 8 receptions Reception volume8 bottom 16th percentile · FBS TEs, min. 8 receptions Trait fingerprint Plays like View Jackson Ford's full player page | ||||||||
| 18 | 3 | 5 | 45 | 9 | 0 | 24 | ||
Yards by week → | ||||||||
| +0.38 EPA/play | 88 | 4 | 5 | 28 | 5.6 | 1 | 11 | |
Yards by week → | ||||||||
| Player | # | G | Tot | Solo | TFL | Sack | Hur |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Two-Gap Base | 95 | 9 | 41 | 16 | 2.5 | 0.5 | 2 |
Two-gap baseStout at the point of attack — steady tackle-for-loss production without a standout pass-rush number. Impact starter — 41 tackles in 9 games, more tackles a game than nearly every FBS defensive lineman who plays every week. The most common profile in its group this season — 276 of 606 classified this way. Played in 9 of 10 games this season · freshman View Gavriel Lightfoot's full player page | |||||||
| Two-Gap Base | 67 | — | 25 | 7 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 |
Two-gap baseStout at the point of attack — steady tackle-for-loss production without a standout pass-rush number. 25 tackles in 7 games. About as many tackles a game as a typical FBS defensive lineman who plays every week. 276 of 606 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate12.0% bottom 39th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Tiumalu Afalava's full player page | |||||||
| 3-Tech Penetrator | 11 | 8 | 15 | 7 | 2.5 | 1.5 | 5 |
3-tech penetratorDisruptive interior rusher who lives in the backfield. 200 of 606 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate16.7% 55th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Krishna Clay's full player page | |||||||
| Two-Gap Base | 6 | 7 | 13 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 |
Two-gap baseStout at the point of attack — steady tackle-for-loss production without a standout pass-rush number. 276 of 606 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate23.1% 76th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Malachi Finau's full player page | |||||||
| 91 | 6 | 8 | 3 | 0.5 | 0 | 2 | |
| 52 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Player | # | G | Tot | Solo | Ast | TFL | Sack | PD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sideline-to-Sideline | — | 9 | 80 | 49 | 31 | 4 | 2.5 | 3 | 0 |
Sideline-to-sidelineRanges from hash to hash and makes his own tackles. Impact starter — 80 tackles in 9 games, more tackles a game than nearly every FBS linebacker who plays every week. 83 of 564 LBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Solo tackle rate0.6 89th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Tackle volume80 99th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Trait fingerprint Plays like View Sione Hala's full player page | |||||||||
| Sideline-to-Sideline | 21 | 9 | 69 | 40 | 29 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Sideline-to-sidelineRanges from hash to hash and makes his own tackles. Starter — 69 tackles in 9 games, more tackles a game than most FBS linebackers who play every week. 83 of 564 LBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Solo tackle rate0.6 82th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Tackle volume69 96th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Trait fingerprint Plays like View Tano Letuli's full player page | |||||||||
| Balanced Linebacker | 42 | 8 | 33 | 16 | 17 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Balanced linebackerSolid in every phase without a signature dimension. The most common profile in its group this season — 330 of 564 classified this way. Played in 8 of 10 games this season · freshman View Cameron Cooper's full player page | |||||||||
| Balanced Linebacker | 32 | — | 27 | 10 | 17 | 1.5 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Balanced linebackerSolid in every phase without a signature dimension. 330 of 564 LBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Tackle volume27 bottom 27th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles TFL rate5.6% bottom 31th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Trait fingerprint Plays like View Tanner Williams's full player page | |||||||||
| Thumper | 45 | 7 | 24 | 15 | 9 | 8 #50 FBS | 4.5 #60 FBS | 0 | 0 |
ThumperDownhill striker who fills the run lane and blitzes off the edge. 24 tackles in 7 games. About as many tackles a game as a typical FBS defensive lineman who plays every week. 62 of 564 LBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate33.3% 100th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Sack rate18.8% 100th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Trait fingerprint Plays like View Djibril Abdou Rahman's full player page | |||||||||
| Thumper | 18 | 8 | 22 | 11 | 11 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 #51 FBS |
ThumperDownhill striker who fills the run lane and blitzes off the edge. 22 tackles in 8 games. About as many tackles a game as a typical FBS defensive lineman who plays every week. 62 of 564 LBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate22.7% 98th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Sack rate13.6% 99th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Trait fingerprint Plays like View Kai Wallin's full player page | |||||||||
| Thumper | 33 | 8 | 16 | 10 | 6 | 1.5 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
ThumperDownhill striker who fills the run lane and blitzes off the edge. 62 of 564 LBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate9.4% 53th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles PD rate18.8% 100th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Trait fingerprint Plays like View Brady Nassar's full player page | |||||||||
| 41 | 3 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| 44 | 5 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| 15 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Player | # | G | Tot | PD | INT | TFL | Sack |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Box Safety | 29 | 9 | 63 | 1 | 0 | 0.5 | 0 |
Box safetyLives near the line of scrimmage as a de facto extra linebacker. Impact starter — 63 tackles in 9 games, more tackles a game than nearly every FBS defensive back who plays every week. 150 of 657 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Tackle volume63 99th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles Plays like View Josh Hunter's full player page | |||||||
| Box Safety | 24 | 9 | 54 | 0 | 0 | 1.5 | 0 |
Box safetyLives near the line of scrimmage as a de facto extra linebacker. Starter — 54 tackles in 9 games, more tackles a game than most FBS defensive backs who play every week. 150 of 657 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Tackle volume54 97th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles Plays like View Josiah Cox's full player page | |||||||
| Box Safety | 20 | 8 | 53 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
Box safetyLives near the line of scrimmage as a de facto extra linebacker. 53 tackles in 8 games. More tackles a game than nearly every FBS defensive back who plays every week. 150 of 657 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Tackle volume53 96th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles Plays like View Jelani McLaughlin's full player page | |||||||
| Hybrid Nickel | 35 | 9 | 30 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Hybrid nickelMoves between deep coverage and the slot — the modern positionless DB. The most common profile in its group this season — 358 of 657 classified this way. Played in 9 of 10 games this season · freshman View Tainoa Lave's full player page | |||||||
| Cover Corner | 27 | 9 | 26 | 3 | 3 #16 FBS | 2 | 0 |
Cover cornerSteady in coverage; doesn't get beat deep and rarely gives up the big play. 138 of 244 CBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate11.5% bottom 42th percentile · FBS corners, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Mike Lindsay's full player page | |||||||
| Hybrid Nickel | 30 | 6 | 22 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Hybrid nickelMoves between deep coverage and the slot — the modern positionless DB. The most common profile in its group this season — 358 of 657 classified this way. Played in 6 of 10 games this season · freshman View Jalen Thomeson's full player page | |||||||
| Cover Corner | 16 | 8 | 19 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Cover cornerSteady in coverage; doesn't get beat deep and rarely gives up the big play. The most common profile in its group this season — 138 of 244 classified this way. Played in 8 of 10 games this season · freshman · 3-star, 2020 class View Jelani Whitmore's full player page | |||||||
| Ball Hawk | 32 | 7 | 18 | 6 #43 FBS | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Ball hawkReads the quarterback's eyes and takes the ball away. 36 of 244 CBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate33.3% 97th percentile · FBS corners, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Caleb Ricks's full player page | |||||||
| Hybrid Nickel | 14 | 7 | 15 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Hybrid nickelMoves between deep coverage and the slot — the modern positionless DB. 358 of 657 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate6.7% bottom 44th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles Plays like View Isaiah Green's full player page | |||||||
| 23 | 4 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Player | # | G | FG M/A | FG% | XP M/A | Pts | Long |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steady | 96 | 9 | 12/13 | 92.3 | 24/24 | 60 | 53 |
| Player | # | G | No | Yds | Avg | Long | In20 | TB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cannon | 89 | 9 | 40 | 1843 | 46.1 | 77 | 10 | 3 |
Net average is unavailable — CFBD's punting feed carries gross yards only, with no return-yardage or touchback deduction.
| Player | # | G | No | Yds | Avg | TD | Long |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Threat · +0.69 EPA/play | 12 | 8 | 20 | 655 | 32.8 | 3 | 100 |
| Player | # | G | No | Yds | Avg | TD | Long |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Possession Receiver · +0.45 EPA/play | 3 | 8 | 11 | 50 | 4.5 | 0 | 16 |
Biggest plays from San Diego State’s games
Official highlights with our numbers: the plays that moved the chance to win most in San Diego State’s games this season, whoever made them.
Q1, 12:14 · James Madison tiedCamden Coleman runs 4 yards for a touchdownJames Madison at San Diego State, week 3Q1, 12:14 · James Madison 7, San Diego State 0James Madison opened the scoringJames Madison opened the scoringC.Coleman rush left for 4 yards gain to the SDSU00 touchdown, kick good▶Watch from this play
Sun Belt Conference
Q2, 1:44 · Toledo up 7John Alan Richter finds Bryson Hammer for a 78-yard touchdownSan Diego State at Toledo, week 4Q2, 1:44 · Toledo 17, San Diego State 37878-yard touchdown pass7878-yard touchdown pass78-yard touchdown passJ.Richter pass complete deep middle to B.Hammer caught at SDSU42, for 78 yards to the SDSU00 touchdown, 1ST DOWN, kick good▶Watch from this play
CBS Sports College Football- Q1, 8:48 · San Diego State down 7DJ Kelly intercepts Jayden DenegalJames Madison at San Diego State, week 3Q1, 8:48 · San Diego State 0, James Madison 73San Diego State’s turnover led to a field goal3San Diego State’s turnover led to a field goalSan Diego State’s turnover led to a field goalJ.Denegal pass intercepted by D.Kelly at JMU15 D.Kelly return 2 yards to the JMU17 (B.Emanuel, Jr.) penalty SDSU Ineligible Downfield on Pass declined▶Watch from this play Sun Belt Conference
Q2, 6:19 · Washington State down 7, ties itKirby Vorhees runs 2 yards for a touchdownWashington State at San Diego State, week 9Q2, 6:19 · Washington State 14, San Diego State 14Washington State tied the game in the second quarterWashington State tied the game in the second quarterK.Vorhees rush middle for 2 yards gain to the SDSU00 touchdown, kick good▶Watch from this play CBS Sports College Football- Q3, 14:01 · San Diego State up 3San Diego State turns it overWashington State at San Diego State, week 9Q3, 14:01 · San Diego State 17, Washington State 14▼9%San Diego State’s chance to win, 68% to 59%▼9%San Diego State’s chance to win, 68% to 59%S.Saunders pass intercepted by J.Thomas at SDSU38 broken up by K.Brown J.Thomas return 17 yards to the SDSU21 (I.Lucas) penalty WSU UNR: Unnecessary Roughness (K.Beatty) 15 yards from SDSU21 to SDSU36▶Watch from this play CBS Sports College Football
Q2, 1:42 · James Madison up 13Djibril Abdou Rahman sacks Camden Coleman for a 5-yard lossJames Madison at San Diego State, week 3Q2, 1:42 · James Madison 13, San Diego State 0▼9%James Madison’s chance to win, 86% to 77%▼9%James Madison’s chance to win, 86% to 77%C.Coleman sacked for loss of 5 yards to the SDSU43 (D.Rahman)▶Watch from this play Sun Belt Conference
How scary each game got
San Diego State lost at Colorado State after being 74% to win; the closest win was against Texas State, down to 9%
Tap a game for its score and win chances.
Each bar runs from the lowest to the highest chance our model gave San Diego State during that game; the thick mark is where it started. Numbers are the game week.
Stat leaders
2026 stat leaders · San Diego State
through 9 games
2026 stat leaders · San Diego StateSione Hala leads San Diego State with 80 tackles through 9 games.
Roster
Roster
2026+23 more
Recruiting and the portal: top commits · who's gone and who's back
How they play
San Diego State fields a struggling run-heavy offense behind a porous, bend-don't-break defense.
Percentile vs all FBS, based on this season's per-game production. Bar = where this team ranks — right is better.
Player percentiles
San Diego State reads strongest in explosive plays allowed (top 5%) and field position (O) (top 39%); the crux lives in success rate allowed, where San Diego State sits at the 3rd percentile.
Offense · strengths lead
Defense · higher bar = harder to play against
Hidden math · special situations
Home-field advantage · 2018–present · FBS opponents
San Diego State is worth +3.6 points more at home than on the road.
Middle of FBS, 37th percentile of 133 programs
63% at home, 43% away against FBS opponents since 2018 (31-18 home, 20-26 away). Interval ±3.3.
The stadium and how the home edge is measured
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge. The books use about 3. Per-team versions were tested and did not hold up (why). Against the closing line, San Diego State has beaten the number by +0.0 more at home than away over 101 games. That is inside the ±5.7 that many games can resolve, so the results cannot tell this stadium from the flat number. That is the honest reading of nearly every FBS stadium.
Snapdragon Stadium seats 35,000 and has averaged 74% full (26,033, 31 games reported). Visitors face the 16th-longest trip of 135 FBS venues: a median 685 miles since 2018. The map isn't translating, though — the split above still reads middle of fbs. For the home side it is genuinely home ground: 37% of the 2026 roster (53 of 145 located players) grew up inside 100 miles of the stadium.
Edge = half the gap between average home margin and average road margin, FBS opponents only, non-neutral games since 2018; the interval is 95%. Market line: closing spread, seasons with lines on file. Trip length is straight-line miles from the visiting team's campus to the venue, measured across all 56 home games since 2018.
More in this tab
How they play
Usage splits
How the players get used
From the 2025 season's play-by-play
- Money downDonovan Brown isn't a money-down weapon: his 3rd-down conversion rate lags the position, and his per-target value drops further in that spot.
- CloserByron Cardwell gets meaningfully more work in the fourth quarter with a lead than his overall workload would predict.
- Garbage timeByron Cardwell sees a real spike in usage once the game is out of reach.
- Deep threatDonovan Brown is a real deep-ball threat: a high share of his targets come on throws past the sticks.
- Short yardageLucky Sutton converts 3rd/4th-and-short at an elite rate.
- Deep threatNathan Acevedo is a real deep-ball threat: a high share of his targets come on throws past the sticks.
Position battles
WR/TE room
The targets are split. The job isn’t.
Jaylon Hawkins (WR) and Jackson Ford (TE) split the targets (33/42 vs 9/42) -- but the job isn't split the same way.
Scheme claims
Team identity · competitive snaps only
How San Diego State actually scores
5th percentile quality, 94th percentile boom-dependency. Garbage time excluded from both axes — the same correction that changes the Q4 story below.
View all FBS teams as a table
| Team | Quality percentile | Boom-share percentile |
|---|---|---|
| Air Force | 76th | 3rd |
| Akron | 9th | 90th |
| Alabama | 82nd | 22nd |
| App State | 41st | 48th |
| Arizona | 91st | 16th |
| Arizona State | 20th | 83rd |
| Arkansas | 7th | 93rd |
| Arkansas State | 60th | 32nd |
| Army | 95th | 10th |
| Auburn | 34th | 59th |
| BYU | 83rd | 17th |
| Ball State | 32nd | 72nd |
| Baylor | 36th | 63rd |
| Boise State | 96th | 4th |
| Boston College | 20th | 80th |
| Buffalo | 8th | 88th |
| Central Michigan | 6th | 96th |
| Cincinnati | 88th | 15th |
| Clemson | 10th | 92nd |
| Coastal Carolina | 49th | 57th |
| Colorado | 15th | 86th |
| Colorado State | 88th | 30th |
| Delaware | 63rd | 40th |
| Duke | 74th | 8th |
| East Carolina | 24th | 77th |
| Eastern Michigan | 14th | 80th |
| Florida | 75th | 37th |
| Florida Atlantic | 72nd | 25th |
| Florida International | 2nd | 98th |
| Florida State | 64th | 44th |
| Fresno State | 56th | 52nd |
| Georgia | 92nd | 11th |
| Georgia Southern | 52nd | 40th |
| Georgia State | 77th | 36th |
| Georgia Tech | 30th | 70th |
| Hawai'i | 12th | 88th |
| Houston | 89th | 2nd |
| Illinois | 70th | 38th |
| Indiana | 85th | 18th |
| Iowa | 52nd | 53rd |
| Iowa State | 43rd | 62nd |
| Jacksonville State | 62nd | 41st |
| James Madison | 58th | 35th |
| Kansas | 28th | 66th |
| Kansas State | 48th | 44th |
| Kennesaw State | 23rd | 79th |
| Kentucky | 71st | 21st |
| LSU | 86th | 9th |
| Liberty | 78th | 29th |
| Louisiana | 27th | 69th |
| Louisiana Tech | 60th | 47th |
| Louisville | 94th | 19th |
| Marshall | 36th | 61st |
| Maryland | 17th | 85th |
| Massachusetts | 38th | 60th |
| Memphis | 87th | 20th |
| Miami | 100th | 0th |
| Miami (OH) | 68th | 31st |
| Michigan | 25th | 71st |
| Middle Tennessee | 37th | 60th |
| Minnesota | 4th | 95th |
| Mississippi State | 35th | 65th |
| Missouri | 54th | 49th |
| Missouri State | 40th | 64th |
| NC State | 69th | 28th |
| Navy | 57th | 51st |
| Nebraska | 59th | 32nd |
| Nevada | 1st | 99th |
| New Mexico | 39th | 68th |
| North Carolina | 48th | 45th |
| North Dakota State | 31st | 64th |
| North Texas | 99th | 1st |
| Northern Illinois | 12th | 89th |
| Northwestern | 93rd | 6th |
| Notre Dame | 97th | 5th |
| Ohio | 67th | 43rd |
| Ohio State | 79th | 23rd |
| Oklahoma State | 76th | 14th |
| Ole Miss | 80th | 8th |
| Oregon | 28th | 72nd |
| Oregon State | 92nd | 13th |
| Penn State | 47th | 48th |
| Pittsburgh | 44th | 50th |
| Purdue | 65th | 34th |
| Rice | 18th | 87th |
| Rutgers | 32nd | 76th |
| SMU | 81st | 16th |
| San Diego State | 5th | 94th |
| San José State | 13th | 84th |
| South Alabama | 64th | 27th |
| South Carolina | 55th | 54th |
| South Florida | 42nd | 56th |
| Southern Miss | 3rd | 97th |
| Stanford | 53rd | 55th |
| Syracuse | 24th | 74th |
| TCU | 21st | 75th |
| Temple | 56th | 56th |
| Tennessee | 45th | 42nd |
| Texas | 11th | 91st |
| Texas A&M | 16th | 78th |
| Texas State | 90th | 12th |
| Texas Tech | 50th | 46th |
| Toledo | 84th | 24th |
| Troy | 8th | 92nd |
| Tulane | 33rd | 73rd |
| Tulsa | 68th | 28th |
| UAB | 16th | 81st |
| UCF | 19th | 82nd |
| UCLA | 61st | 36th |
| UConn | 84th | 26th |
| UNLV | 44th | 67th |
| USC | 80th | 12th |
| UTSA | 72nd | 20th |
| Utah | 96th | 7th |
| Utah State | 0th | 100th |
| Vanderbilt | 26th | 76th |
| Virginia | 51st | 39th |
| Virginia Tech | 66th | 33rd |
| Wake Forest | 98th | 4th |
| Washington | 40th | 58th |
| West Virginia | 73rd | 24th |
| Western Kentucky | 4th | 96th |
| Western Michigan | 29th | 68th |
| Wisconsin | 22nd | 84th |
| Wyoming | 46th | 52nd |
San Diego State’s 4th-quarter offense, before and after garbage time
Raw Q4 EPA/play ranks 14th percentile in FBS. Strip out snaps taken with a blowout margin and it climbs to the 33rd — the correction is the finding, not a footnote.
Standard downs vs. passing downs
Does San Diego State hold up once the down-and-distance turns against them?
8th percentile success on standard downs, 54th on passing downs — a 46-point gap between the two.
View all FBS teams as a table
| Team | Standard-downs percentile | Passing-downs percentile |
|---|---|---|
| Air Force | 98th | 23rd |
| Akron | 58th | 34th |
| Alabama | 77th | 57th |
| App State | 33rd | 49th |
| Arizona | 76th | 94th |
| Arizona State | 38th | 61st |
| Arkansas | 71st | 24th |
| Arkansas State | 85th | 59th |
| Army | 93rd | 58th |
| Auburn | 14th | 69th |
| BYU | 86th | 35th |
| Ball State | 31st | 52nd |
| Baylor | 15th | 46th |
| Boise State | 77th | 92nd |
| Boston College | 63rd | 28th |
| Bowling Green | 43rd | 21st |
| Buffalo | 9th | 11th |
| California | 11th | 20th |
| Central Michigan | 36th | 9th |
| Charlotte | 18th | 41st |
| Cincinnati | 68th | 83rd |
| Clemson | 7th | 39th |
| Coastal Carolina | 23rd | 64th |
| Colorado | 16th | 65th |
| Colorado State | 66th | 95th |
| Delaware | 59th | 64th |
| Duke | 21st | 67th |
| East Carolina | 37th | 19th |
| Eastern Michigan | 16th | 30th |
| Florida | 61st | 70th |
| Florida Atlantic | 67th | 87th |
| Florida International | 20th | 53rd |
| Florida State | 30th | 90th |
| Fresno State | 25th | 84th |
| Gardner-Webb | 5th | 23rd |
| Georgia | 98th | 89th |
| Georgia Southern | 60th | 71st |
| Georgia State | 68th | 66th |
| Georgia Tech | 53rd | 40th |
| Hawai'i | 48th | 29th |
| Houston | 87th | 99th |
| Illinois | 73rd | 91st |
| Indiana | 55th | 44th |
| Iowa | 79th | 13th |
| Iowa State | 18th | 31st |
| Jacksonville State | 82nd | 80th |
| James Madison | 45th | 77th |
| Kansas | 52nd | 18th |
| Kansas State | 64th | 68th |
| Kennesaw State | 61st | 16th |
| Kent State | 5th | 21st |
| Kentucky | 90th | 51st |
| LSU | 86th | 98th |
| Liberty | 93rd | 78th |
| Louisiana | 36th | 66th |
| Louisiana Tech | 26th | 79th |
| Louisville | 95th | 72nd |
| Maine | 0th | 86th |
| Marshall | 69th | 32nd |
| Maryland | 34th | 26th |
| Massachusetts | 35th | 38th |
| Memphis | 92nd | 93rd |
| Mercyhurst | 2nd | 34th |
| Miami | 99th | 95th |
| Miami (OH) | 50th | 43rd |
| Michigan | 10th | 89th |
| Michigan State | 23rd | 55th |
| Middle Tennessee | 27th | 64th |
| Minnesota | 32nd | 4th |
| Mississippi State | 66th | 59th |
| Missouri | 34th | 41st |
| Missouri State | 52nd | 30th |
| NC State | 62nd | 77th |
| Navy | 89th | 17th |
| Nebraska | 46th | 85th |
| Nevada | 28th | 27th |
| New Mexico | 55th | 48th |
| New Mexico State | 14th | 36th |
| Norfolk State | 7th | 0th |
| North Carolina | 89th | 73rd |
| North Dakota State | 30th | 45th |
| North Texas | 95th | 84th |
| Northern Illinois | 51st | 14th |
| Northwestern | 88th | 88th |
| Notre Dame | 100th | 43rd |
| Ohio | 82nd | 42nd |
| Ohio State | 84th | 80th |
| Oklahoma | 4th | 50th |
| Oklahoma State | 96th | 86th |
| Old Dominion | 1st | 36th |
| Ole Miss | 81st | 94th |
| Oregon | 39th | 26th |
| Oregon State | 97th | 70th |
| Penn State | 20th | 47th |
| Pittsburgh | 65th | 50th |
| Purdue | 57th | 82nd |
| Rice | 59th | 14th |
| Robert Morris | 2nd | 5th |
| Rutgers | 42nd | 81st |
| SMU | 91st | 82nd |
| Sacramento State | 13th | 6th |
| Sam Houston | 11th | 37th |
| San Diego State | 8th | 54th |
| San José State | 17th | 2nd |
| South Alabama | 44th | 74th |
| South Carolina | 70th | 56th |
| South Florida | 84th | 57th |
| Southern Miss | 48th | 7th |
| Stanford | 40th | 9th |
| Syracuse | 57th | 39th |
| TCU | 70th | 10th |
| Temple | 50th | 68th |
| Tennessee | 75th | 12th |
| Texas | 27th | 61st |
| Texas A&M | 46th | 55th |
| Texas State | 74th | 100th |
| Texas Tech | 64th | 76th |
| Toledo | 73rd | 52nd |
| Troy | 39th | 15th |
| Tulane | 12th | 8th |
| Tulsa | 49th | 7th |
| UAB | 24th | 62nd |
| UCF | 29th | 45th |
| UCLA | 80th | 60th |
| UConn | 72nd | 73rd |
| UL Monroe | 47th | 11th |
| UNLV | 41st | 19th |
| USC | 79th | 97th |
| UT Martin | 6th | 3rd |
| UTEP | 9th | 1st |
| UTSA | 91st | 33rd |
| Utah | 94th | 98th |
| Utah State | 3rd | 76th |
| Vanderbilt | 41st | 32nd |
| Virginia | 83rd | 2nd |
| Virginia Tech | 43rd | 91st |
| Wake Forest | 75th | 96th |
| Washington | 56th | 16th |
| Washington State | 19th | 5th |
| West Virginia | 54th | 75th |
| Western Kentucky | 22nd | 25th |
| Western Michigan | 32nd | 27th |
| Wisconsin | 25th | 22nd |
| Wyoming | 78th | 48th |
San Diego State by half
1st-half offense ranks 16th percentile in FBS; 2nd-half, 27th — competitive snaps only, garbage time excluded from both halves.
How much of San Diego State’s number is the schedule?
Raw EPA/play through week 10 is 0.00; 17th percentile once opponent strength is stripped out, it's -0.00. The widest gap came in week 2: 0.23 raw vs. 0.01 adjusted.
Tendency drift
How San Diego State’s current staff calls plays, year over year
Pass defense by zone
What this team throws, and gives up, by depth.
On short throws (≤19 air yards), San Diego State’s passing game completes a completion rate below the FBS mean (64.8% vs 67.0% league-wide, shrunk toward the mean for its 196-play sample) — mid-pack, 32 of 136 qualifying offenses.
On short throws (≤19 air yards), San Diego State’s defense allows a completion rate above the FBS mean (70.4% vs 66.3% league-wide, shrunk toward the mean for its 215-play sample) — mid-pack, 134 of 137 qualifying defenses.
We won’t show a deep-ball (20+ air yards) leaderboard here, on either side of the ball: even a full season of charted plays gives most teams well under 30 deep attempts — too thin to tell a real tendency from noise, so we won’t guess. Same refusal for yards-after-catch allowed and where a team’s attempts land by zone: both measured and both came back statistically indistinguishable from season-to-season noise.
Havoc & trenches
Disruption, run-blocking, and down-and-distance efficiency.
Turnover luck
80% recovery rate on the fumbles they've forced — well above the ~48% league baseline.
4 of 5 forced fumbles recovered; 1 of 5 own fumbles recovered themselves, 2026 only.
Takeaways
21% of tipped/broken-up passes have turned into picks — about the ~18% league average.
7 interceptions of 34 disrupted passes (27 deflected, 7 intercepted), 2026 only.
Penalties
44 penalties committed, 56 drawn on opponents — netting a 105-yard field-position edge.
370 penalty yards committed vs. 475 drawn on opponents, 2026 season total.
Ratings and comparisons
Ratings
Comparable teams
Most similar programs · San Diego State
Most similar programs · San Diego StateReads like
Matched on how the programs are built — tier, prestige band, kind of fanbase, conference, voice and roster size — not on this season's stats. A calibration, not a prediction.
Historical echo
San Diego State’s slide has precedent — and 1 of the 4 closest kept falling.
Programs whose stature fell in the same shape. The grey line is their decline; the color is what came next for them.
An analogy on the shape of a program’s Zeitgeist stature arc — not a prediction. Interim calibration; matched among current FBS programs at a comparable level.
Weather
Snapdragon Stadium, San Diego, CA
Usual during the game around Nov 14: 60°, between 55° and 63° in about 7 in 10 games (30 games since 2016).
Road games since 2016: the middle game was 59°, and 8 in 10 ran between 42° and 73° (43 of 54 road games, at stadiums we cover).
What a usual Saturday feels like here, by kickoff time
Airport readings near each stadium during the game, not on the field. How we measure
Weather observations: National Weather Service, through the Iowa Environmental Mesonet at Iowa State University. Rain: NOAA MRMS radar and CoCoRaHS volunteer gauges (CC BY 4.0). Game data: CollegeFootballData.com.