Q4 12:18Boise State fans celebrate as Riley runs for a touchdown to extend the leadNice! Bout time Riley busted loose. And imagine that- it wasn’t an inside run!!r/CFB game thread
Q4 7:24Boise State fans celebrate a personal foul call on Dylan Riley's 72-yard touchdown runJEANTY JEANTY JEANTY!! Wait.. RILEY! RILEY! RILEY!r/CFB game thread
Boise State’s chance to win after every play. How to read this chartStarts from the pregame line (Boise State -14.5), at 80% for Boise State (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores. Under the scores, r/CFB comments per minute from fans with a Washington State or Boise State flair (299 and 503); both sides share one scale, regulation only. A gold diamond marks a play fans were reacting to.
Every drive
Boise State scored on 5 of its 10 drives; Washington State on 2 of its 9.
Boise State’s drives are teal, Washington State’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.
How fans reacted
Steady
The jump was steady; the crowd was steady.
Two crowds, one game
The words each side’s fans used far more than the other side, from the game thread.
Boise State fans
riley“Riley just isn’t getting holes today Bray really prepared for this team”
Both sets of fans kept coming back to: don, now, getting, pretty.
What it cost
Boise State’s chance to make the playoff rose from 31% to 37%.
Make the playoff
Boise State · won31% → ▲37%
Washington State · lost0% → 0%
Win the conference
Boise State · won42% → ▲46%
Washington State · lost0% → 0%
Before the game (October 23, 2026) → after this result alone, in our model. Other games that weekend move it too, so the team page may differ.
Boise State plays vs Texas State on Sat Oct 31 with a 37% chance to make the playoff.
Box score
Boise State 31, Washington State 10
Boise State covered −14.5 by 6.5. The total, 41, stayed under 52.5.
Team totals
Boise State
Washington State
Total yards
407
244
Passing
14 of 24, 149 yds
21 of 40, 191 yds
Rushing
37 for 258 yds
33 for 53 yds
First downs
21
19
Third down
7 of 12
6 of 17
Fourth down
1 of 1
4 of 5
Turnovers
0
1
Penalties
7 for 72 yds
4 for 30 yds
Time of possession
29:12
30:48
Boise State leaders
Passing Maddux Madsen 14 of 23, 149 yds, 1 TD
Rushing Dylan Riley 13 for 128 yds, 2 TD; Sire Gaines 10 for 64 yds, 1 TD
Receiving Rasean Jones 5 for 69 yds; Akeem Wright 2 for 24 yds
Washington State leaders
Passing Owen Eshelman 21 of 40, 191 yds, 1 INT
Rushing Owen Eshelman 23 for 33 yds; Leo Pulalasi 5 for 12 yds
Receiving Branden Ganashamoorthy 4 for 58 yds; Daniel Blood 4 for 43 yds
No rain and calm
53° at kickoff · no rain recorded · wind 6 mph from the east-southeast, gusts to 16
Boise State 0, Washington State 0 · Washington State 20% to win
no rain · wind 8 mph from the east-southeast · 53°
Madsen 6-yd pass to Jones
Where this weather comes fromMeasured at Pullman/moscow Rgnl airport, 2.5 miles away. Wind and rain are airport readings near the stadium, not on the field. Game times come from the play-by-play, good to a minute or two. Source: National Weather Service, through the Iowa Environmental Mesonet. Field direction from OpenStreetMap contributors.
Before kickoff
Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.
Recent games
Last three games
Boise State · 5-1
Rated 37th in our preseason ratings, 14th now, up 23 spots.
Three straight wins, one over ranked or top-40 competition.
Boise State is rated 9.3 points ahead as of week 7. Our power rating by week; higher is better.
Matchups
Biggest mismatch: Washington State’s success rate against Boise State, 76 points
Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.
Washington State’s passing EPA against Boise State’s defense
Washington State offense, 5th percentile · Boise State defense, 79th
Washington State’s success rate against Boise State’s defense
Washington State offense, 3rd percentile · Boise State defense, 79th
Washington State’s explosive plays against Boise State’s defense
Washington State offense, 45th percentile · Boise State defense, 0th
Season profile, all the rows
Season profile
Boise StateWashington State
EPA/play, offense
EPA/play, defense
Success rate, offense
Success rate, defense
Explosive-play rate, offense
Explosive-play rate, defense
Rush EPA, offense
Rush EPA, defense
Pass EPA, offense
Pass EPA, defense
The series
Washington State leads the series 5-2
7 meetings since 1997 · Boise State won the last meeting
2024Boise State 45-24
2017Washington State 47-44
2016Boise State 31-28
2001Washington State 41-20
2000Washington State 42-35
Each line is Washington State’s chance to win through that meeting. Older meetings have no play by play, so no line.
Line, fans and home field
The betting line, and the fans
Boise State fans are feeling it about like the typical fanbase this week (42nd percentile among FBS fanbases), and the other side is no happier.
Boise State favored by 14.5 · Total 52.5
How games like this usually go
Boise State by 14.5, and it went to form
Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game
The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 263 games since 2025 with a favorite of 14.5 to 21.5 points.
The market
The spread moved 0.5 points toward Boise State.
The total rose 2 points.
Spread: +14 → +14.5 · Total: 50.5 → 52.5
The books’ cut: 4.2%, the margin built into the odds
Home field
Washington State is worth +4.9 points (±4.0) more at home than on the road since 2018 — middle of FBS, 63rd percentile.
62% at home, 34% on the road against FBS opponents (26-16 home, 15-29 away).
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads -1.5 at home vs. away over 94 games — inside the ±6.5 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.
A Boise State fan
Boise State wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.