South Dakota at Boise State
South Dakota (3‑0) at Boise State (1‑1) — no line posted yet, but the model favors Boise State (86%).
How they got here
Last three games
South Dakota · 3-0
Picked #121 in the preseason · now #115 — about right.
Three straight wins — but still hunting a ranked opponent.
W 41–23 vs Eastern Washington #177 of 669
won by 18 as a 15.5-point favorite
W 38–23 @ Northern Colorado #257 of 669
won by 15 as a 20.5-point favorite
W 59–20 vs Central Connecticut #192 of 669
won by 39 as a 20.5-point favorite
What’s at stake
South Dakota
- South Dakota needs 5 more wins in the final 8 to reach bowl eligibility.
- South Dakota is coming off a 18-point win.
Boise State
- A win puts Boise State a step closer to a 13% shot at the CFP field.
- Boise State is coming off a 18-point win.
Face-off
What each fanbase carries into this one.
South Dakota
The chip · vs the national mediaFans here believe plenty of skeptics thought South Dakota would struggle with a new coach. Instead, Travis Johansen took a program that was down and brought it to 10-5 in year one. The Coyotes are knocking on the MVFC elite's door.
What this game touches
The coaching transition succeeded. South Dakota brought in Travis Johansen as a new head coach and the program immediately responded with a 10-5 season and a 6-2 MVFC record (second place). For a program that had struggled previously, this is proof that the change was right.
Boise State
The chip · vs the blue bloodsBroncos fans note the giants schedule them only when they have to — and still rank them behind teams they'd beat.
What this game touches
The closed door. The 2006 team beat Oklahoma in the Fiesta Bowl and finished as the country's only undefeated team, ranked No. 5 — and the old system had no lane for a team like Boise to play for a title.
Best players
Boise State
- Dylan Riley (RB) · 256 rushing yards — Heisman odds: 123rd (+50000)
- Boen Phelps (LB) · 16 tackles
- Travis Anderson (DB) · 16 tackles
Conditions
69°F · 2 mph wind · Clear
Boise State is worth +4.0 points (±3.5) more at home than on the road since 2018 — middle of FBS, 48th percentile.
78% at home, 68% on the road against FBS opponents (36–10 home, 32–15 away).
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads +3.1 at home vs. away over 80 games — inside the ±6.0 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.
Night kickoff — historically worth about half a point more to the home side against the number, and not much more than that. The visitors travel about 970 miles to get here.
Recent games
Boise State
- Wk 1Lat Oregon27-34
- Wk 2Wvs Memphis38-20
South Dakota
- Wk 1Wvs Central Connecticut59-20
- Wk 1Wat Northern Colorado38-23
- Wk 2Wvs Eastern Washington41-23