Boise State beats South Dakota 38-24
Team pages: South Dakota · Boise State
Boise State beat South Dakota 38-24. Share this game
We had Boise State favored. It won.
Top comment in the game thread
South Dakota > Oregon there I said it
How it swung
Before kickoff, our ratings gave Boise State an 86% chance, and the closing betting line (Boise State was a 28.5-point favorite) put it at 99%.
Favored the whole way: Boise State never fell below 87%.
South Dakota never had better than a 13% chance.
Boise State · Q2 2:0483-yard TD runBoise State · Q4 1:33Boise State 38-24 South Dakota
Boise State wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.South Dakota 24-38 Boise StateSouth Dakota lostMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.No single play moved the chance by 20 points.
No single play moved the chance by 20 points.
What fans said, play by play
The line in bold above each quote is written by our model from the thread’s comments and the play-by-play.
- Q1 5:17Boise State fans criticize Madsen after Gaines turnover on downs
Madsen can work at the Jackson’s next to campus but should never be allowed on the blue again
r/CFB game threadSure looks like there wasn't much game planning for this one.
r/CFB game thread - Q4 12:56Boise State fans panic as Madsen throws incomplete pass and faces turnover on downs
Maddux has to be better. South Dakota is a quality program in the FCS but Boise is basically a top 25 FBS team at home. Come on
r/CFB game threadGaines open and and Madsen doesn’t even look his way
r/CFB game thread - Q4 12:01Boise State fans panic as South Dakota ties the game in the fourth quarterQuoted at the top of the page.
- Q4 7:22Boise State fans celebrate Gaines' run then worry about his injury
That was a nice response to the last while and Gaines going down
r/CFB game thread - Q4 4:54Boise State fans rage as Bates muff punt, giving South Dakota ball at Boise 35
Huge respect to South Dakota too
r/CFB game threadThis team doesn’t look ready to play a high school game let alone this
r/CFB game thread - Q4 3:22Boise State fans panic as South Dakota drives deep into the red zone with under four minutes remaining
Even if we come out of this with a win our defense has been exposed by Oregon, Memphis, and now SOUTH DAKOTA (who is obviously very good). This team ain’t capable of winning a…
r/CFB game threadSo many chances for Boise to end this game and they just can't do it
r/CFB game thread - Q4 1:33Riley runs 83 yards for a touchdown, putting Boise State up 38-24 with 1:33 left
Spencer out there thanking Riley for saving his job lmao -6DeadlyFetishes
r/CFB game thread
How to read this chart
Starts from the pregame line (Boise State -28.5), at 98% for Boise State (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores. Outlined diamonds mark rare plays. The gray band is r/CFB game-thread activity, its loudest stretches in gold. A gold diamond marks a play fans were reacting to.Watch the plays
The bar and the arrow show Boise State’s chance to win after each play; the logo is the team the play helped.
- Q1, 0:04Madsen 9-yd TD pass to Jonesties it 7-7Q1, 0:04 · Boise State 7, South Dakota 7▲4%Boise State’s chance to win, 91% to 95%▲4%Boise State’s chance to win, 91% to 95%▶Watch from this playCBS Sports College Football
- Q2, 13:39Modrzewski 5-yd TD pass to BozeSouth Dakota goes ahead 14-7Q2, 13:39 · Boise State 7, South Dakota 14▼6%Boise State’s chance to win, 94% to 88%▼6%Boise State’s chance to win, 94% to 88%▶Watch from this playCBS Sports College Football
- Q2, 7:41Gaines 3-yd TD runties it 14-14Q2, 7:41 · Boise State 14, South Dakota 14▲4%Boise State’s chance to win, 90% to 94%▲4%Boise State’s chance to win, 90% to 94%▶Watch from this playCBS Sports College Football
- Q2, 6:57Modrzewski intercepted by Anderson at the Boise State 30Q2, 6:57 · Boise State 14, South Dakota 1414-14score after the play14-14score after the play▶Watch from this playCBS Sports College Football
- Q2, 2:04Madsen 4-yd TD pass to BatesBoise State goes ahead 21-14Q2, 2:04 · Boise State 21, South Dakota 1421-14score after the play21-14score after the play▶Watch from this playCBS Sports College Football
- Q3, 2:49Modrzewski 59-yd TD pass to Bozecuts it to 24-21Q3, 2:49 · Boise State 24, South Dakota 21▼4%Boise State’s chance to win, 98% to 94%▼4%Boise State’s chance to win, 98% to 94%▶Watch from this playCBS Sports College Football
- Q4, 1:18Modrzewski intercepted by Anderson at the Boise State 50Q4, 1:18 · Boise State 38, South Dakota 2438-24score after the play38-24score after the play▶Watch from this playCBS Sports College Football
Every drive
Boise State scored on 6 of its 13 drives; South Dakota on 4 of its 13.
Boise State’s drives are teal, South Dakota’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.
“This team doesn’t look ready to play a high school game let alone this”
When fans got loud
Busy
The fourth quarter is when fans got loud.
The jump was busy; the crowd was steady.
Box score
Boise State 38, South Dakota 24
South Dakota covered +28.5 by 14.5. The total, 62, went over 61.5.
| Team totals | South Dakota | Boise State |
|---|---|---|
| Total yards | 279 | 533 |
| Passing | 12 of 28, 243 yds | 22 of 31, 208 yds |
| Rushing | 22 for 36 yds | 48 for 325 yds |
| First downs | 11 | 29 |
| Third down | 3 of 12 | 8 of 13 |
| Fourth down | 0 of 1 | 0 of 2 |
| Turnovers | 2 | 2 |
| Penalties | 5 for 50 yds | 4 for 39 yds |
| Time of possession | 20:34 | 39:26 |
South Dakota leaders
- Passing Austyn Modrzewski 12 of 27, 243 yds, 3 TD, 2 INT
- Rushing Charles Pierre Jr. 14 for 47 yds; Carson Fletcher 2 for 12 yds
- Receiving Tennel Bryant 3 for 104 yds; Tysen Boze 3 for 73 yds, 2 TD
Boise State leaders
- Passing Maddux Madsen 22 of 31, 208 yds, 2 TD
- Rushing Dylan Riley 26 for 198 yds, 2 TD; Sire Gaines 17 for 102 yds, 1 TD
- Receiving Rasean Jones 8 for 95 yds, 1 TD; Ben Ford 3 for 29 yds
No rain and calm
72° at kickoff · no rain recorded · wind 3 mph from the north, gusts to 7
September game-day temperatures at Albertsons Stadium
Drag along the chart, or step through the game.
Where this weather comes from
Measured at Boise Municipal airport, 3.4 miles away. Rain is NOAA's radar-and-gauge estimate at the stadium and wind is an airport reading; neither is measured on the field. Game times come from the play-by-play, good to a minute or two. Source: National Weather Service, through the Iowa Environmental Mesonet; rain radar from NOAA MRMS, through Iowa State University. Field direction from OpenStreetMap contributors.Before kickoff
Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.
Recent games
Last three games
South Dakota · 3-0
Rated 121st in our preseason ratings, 114th now.
Three straight wins — but still hunting a ranked opponent.
W 38-23 @ Northern Colorado #254 of 668
won by 15 as a 20.5-point favorite
W 59-20 vs Central Connecticut #189 of 668
won by 39 as a 20.5-point favorite
Week by week
Boise State
- Wk 1Lat Oregon27-34
- Wk 2Wvs Memphis38-20
South Dakota
- Wk 1Wvs Central Connecticut59-20
- Wk 1Wat Northern Colorado38-23
- Wk 2Wvs Eastern Washington41-23
Power rating by week
Boise State is rated 9.3 points ahead as of week 2. Our power rating by week; higher is better.
Line, fans and home field
The betting line, and the fans
Our model and the betting line don’t fully agree on Boise State’s chances here.
Boise State favored by 28.5 · Total 61.5
How games like this usually go
Boise State by 28.5: the game against the usual path
Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game
The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 411 games since 2025 with a favorite of 21.5 points or more.
The market
The spread moved 5 points toward Boise State.
The total rose 6 points.
Spread: −23.5 → −28.5 · Total: 55.5 → 61.5
The books’ cut: 3.6%, the margin built into the odds
Weather at kickoff
Mild and dry. Feels like 68° at kickoff.
South Dakota at Boise State · Saturday, Sept. 19, 2026 · Albertsons Stadium, Boise
- 68°feels like at kickoff
- Dryno rain at kickoff
- 100weather score, Ideal
- Tiedfor the best of the day's 3 kickoff times
At kickoff, Sept. 19, 2026.
Weather score: 0 to 100, higher is better, for the first 3 hours and 20 minutes of the game. Ideal is 100, Comfortable 90 to 99, Mixed 75 to 89, Rough 50 to 74, Harsh under 50.
Kickoff times that Saturday
Games in this time zone used 3 kickoff times that day, local time (kickoffs within 30 minutes of each other count as one). This game, ringed, was tied for the best of the day's three kickoff times. At Albertsons Stadium that day, a 1:30 pm kickoff would have scored 96, against 100 at 8 pm.
- 1:30 pm: 96, Comfortable
- 5:30 pm: 99, Comfortable
- 8 pm: 100, Ideal (this game)
Weather score at each kickoff time.
Tap a dot to read that kickoff time.
At kickoff, Sept. 19, 2026. Wind is not drawn here; gusts are in each score.
Home field
Boise State is worth +3.9 points (±3.4) more at home than on the road since 2018 — middle of FBS, 45th percentile.
79% at home, 69% on the road against FBS opponents (37-10 home, 34-15 away).
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads +0.6 at home vs. away over 102 games — inside the ±5.3 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.
Night kickoff — historically worth about half a point more to the home side against the number, and not much more than that. The visitors travel about 970 miles to get here.