Youngstown State beats South Dakota 47-28

Team pages: South Dakota · Youngstown State

South Dakota3-228
Youngstown State3-247Final
Sat, Sep 26 · Stambaugh Stadium, Youngstown, Ohio · Crowd 8,849ESPN+

Youngstown State beat South Dakota 47-28.

We had Youngstown State favored. It won.

Next: South Dakota beat Indiana State 44-14, Sat Oct 3

Next: Youngstown State beat Southern Illinois 28-16, Sat Oct 3

How it swung

Before kickoff, our ratings gave Youngstown State a 42% chance, and the closing betting line (Youngstown State was a 1.5-point favorite) put it at 55%.

Favored the whole way: Youngstown State never fell below 56%.

South Dakota never had better than a 44% chance.

FinalYoungstown State 47-28 South DakotaYoungstown State wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.
50%75%90%Q1Q2Q3Q482% at halfYoungstown StateWon47-2812−13+11Scores
50%75%90%Q1Q2Q3Q482% at halfYoungstown StateWon47-2812Scores
50%10%25%Q1Q2Q3Q418% at halfYoungstown StateLowest 0%Lost28-4712+13−11Scores
50%10%25%Q1Q2Q3Q418% at halfYoungstown StateLowest 0%Lost28-4712Scores

The two plays that swung it

  1. 1Q1 4:0646-yd puntYoungstown State 69% → 56% (−13)
  2. 2Q2 13:19Brungard 2-yd TD run, Youngstown State goes ahead 14-7Youngstown State 70% → 81% (+11)

The two plays that swung it

  1. 1Q1 4:0646-yd puntSouth Dakota 31% → 44% (+13)
  2. 2Q2 13:19Brungard 2-yd TD run, Youngstown State goes ahead 14-7South Dakota 30% → 19% (−11)
Youngstown State’s chance to win after every play.
How to read this chartStarts from the pregame line (Youngstown State -1.5), at 63% for Youngstown State (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores.

Every drive

Youngstown State scored on 8 of its 11 drives; South Dakota on 4 of its 11.

Youngstown State’s drives are teal, South Dakota’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.

own goalgoal lineQ1Youngstown State: Touchdown, from 75 yards out to 0TouchdownSouth Dakota: Touchdown, from 64 yards out to 0TouchdownYoungstown State: Punt, from 75 yards out to 47PuntSouth Dakota: Punt, from 99 yards out to 93PuntYoungstown State: Touchdown, from 52 yards out to 0TouchdownQ2South Dakota: Punt, from 69 yards out to 61PuntYoungstown State: Touchdown, from 85 yards out to 0TouchdownSouth Dakota: Touchdown, from 75 yards out to 0TouchdownYoungstown State: Field goal, from 77 yards out to 5Field goalSouth Dakota: End of half, from 75 yards out to 76End of halfQ3South Dakota: Touchdown, from 71 yards out to 0TouchdownYoungstown State: Punt, from 75 yards out to 66PuntSouth Dakota: Interception, from 73 yards out to 73InterceptionYoungstown State: Field goal, from 25 yards out to 3Field goalSouth Dakota: Punt, from 69 yards out to 61PuntYoungstown State: Touchdown, from 94 yards out to 0TouchdownQ4South Dakota: Interception, from 75 yards out to 60InterceptionYoungstown State: Touchdown, from 41 yards out to 0TouchdownSouth Dakota: Fumble, from 75 yards out to 84FumbleYoungstown State: Touchdown, from 5 yards out to 0TouchdownSouth Dakota: Touchdown, from 75 yards out to 0TouchdownYoungstown State: End of game, from 66 yards out to 67End of game

From South Dakota’s side

South Dakota’s best moment: 46-yd punt (Q1 4:06). It lifted South Dakota’s win chance by 13 points.

Box score

Youngstown State 47, South Dakota 28

Youngstown State covered −1.5 by 17.5. The total, 75, went over 65.5.

South Dakota leaders

  • Passing Austyn Modrzewski 16 of 22, 147 yds, 1 TD, 2 INT
  • Rushing Carson Fletcher 8 for 59 yds, 1 TD; Jackson Proctor 3 for 36 yds, 2 TD
  • Receiving Brayden White 5 for 37 yds; Tysen Boze 3 for 33 yds, 1 TD

Youngstown State leaders

  • Passing Beau Brungard 13 of 17, 159 yds, 1 TD
  • Rushing Beau Brungard 28 for 170 yds, 3 TD; Jaden Gilbert 11 for 65 yds
  • Receiving Jaden Gilbert 3 for 41 yds; Roger Walters 1 for 28 yds

Before kickoff

Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.

Recent games

Last 4 games

South Dakota · 3-1

Rated 121st in our preseason ratings, 107th now, up 14 spots.

3-1 in its last 4 — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.

L 24-38 @ Boise StateTop 25 #32 of 668

lost by 14 as a 28.5-point underdog

South Dakota lost 24-38 at Boise State. Chance to win started at 2%, low under 1%, high 13%.

W 41-23 vs Eastern Washington #177 of 668

won by 18 as a 15.5-point favorite

South Dakota won 41-23 vs Eastern Washington. Chance to win started at 89%, low 84%, high better than 99%.

W 38-23 @ Northern Colorado #254 of 668

won by 15 as a 20.5-point favorite

South Dakota won 38-23 at Northern Colorado. Chance to win started at 88%, low 72%, high better than 99%.

W 59-20 vs Central Connecticut #189 of 668

won by 39 as a 20.5-point favorite

Last 4 games

Youngstown State · 2-2

Rated 147th in our preseason ratings, 144th now.

2-2 in its last 4 — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.

L 20-27 @ South Dakota State #102 of 668

lost by 7 as a 9.5-point underdog

Youngstown State lost 20-27 at South Dakota State. Chance to win started at 20%, low under 1%, high 31%.

W 70-13 vs Duquesne #205 of 668

won by 57 as a 22.5-point favorite

Youngstown State won 70-13 vs Duquesne. Chance to win started at 95%, low 91%, high better than 99%.

L 13-45 @ KentuckyTop 25 #100 of 668

lost by 32 as a 22.5-point underdog

Youngstown State lost 13-45 at Kentucky. Chance to win started at 5%, low under 1%, high 5%.

W 43-10 vs Mercyhurst #227 of 668

won by 33 as a 30.5-point favorite

Youngstown State won 43-10 vs Mercyhurst. Chance to win started at 98%, low 96%, high better than 99%.

Week by week

Youngstown State

Wk 1: W 43-10 vs Mercyhurst▲33MercyhurstWk 1: L 13-45 at Kentucky▼32KentuckyWk 2: W 70-13 vs Duquesne▲57DuquesneWk 3: L 20-27 at South Dakota State▼7S. Dakota S…
  • Wk 1Wvs Mercyhurst43-10
  • Wk 1Lat Kentucky13-45
  • Wk 2Wvs Duquesne70-13
  • Wk 3Lat South Dakota State20-27

South Dakota

Wk 1: W 59-20 vs Central Connecticut▲39C. Connecti…Wk 1: W 38-23 at Northern Colorado▲15N. ColoradoWk 2: W 41-23 vs Eastern Washington▲18E. Washingt…Wk 3: L 24-38 at Boise State▼14Boise State
  • Wk 1Wvs Central Connecticut59-20
  • Wk 1Wat Northern Colorado38-23
  • Wk 2Wvs Eastern Washington41-23
  • Wk 3Lat Boise State24-38

Power rating by week

South Dakota is rated 2.3 points ahead as of week 3. Our power rating by week; higher is better.

-2-5-7Wk 0Wk 2Wk 3Youngstown StateSouth Dakota

The series

Youngstown State leads the series 7-4

11 meetings since 2012 · South Dakota has won the last 2

Youngstown State wonSouth Dakota won2012: Youngstown State by 32013: Youngstown State by 42014: Youngstown State by 112015: Youngstown State by 282016: Youngstown State by 102017: South Dakota by 32018: Youngstown State by 122019: South Dakota by 352022: Youngstown State by 212023: South Dakota by 32024: South Dakota by 1020122024
  • 2024South Dakota 27-17
  • 2023South Dakota 34-31
  • 2022Youngstown State 45-24
  • 2019South Dakota 56-21
  • 2018Youngstown State 29-17

Line, fans and home field

The betting line, and the fans

Our model and the betting line don’t fully agree on Youngstown State’s chances here.

50-50Model · 42%Line · 55%South DakotaYoungstown State

Youngstown State favored by 1.5 · Total 65.5

How games like this usually go

Youngstown State by 1.5, and it went to form

50%90%Q1Q2Q3Q450%90%Q1Q2Q3Q4

Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game

The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 252 games since 2025 with a favorite of under 3.5 points.

The market

The total rose 2 points.

opened 63.5now 65.5

Total: 63.5 → 65.5

The books’ cut: 5.3%, the margin built into the odds

Home field

Youngstown State is worth +5.3 points (±12.5) more at home than on the road since 2018 — top third of FBS, 72nd percentile.

50% at home, 0% on the road against FBS opponents (2-2 home, 0-12 away).

Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads +4.0 at home vs. away over 56 games — inside the ±6.1 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.

The visitors travel about 843 miles to get here.

Where next

Conference standings

Place in the conference, then conference record.