South Dakota State beats Youngstown State 27-20

Team pages: Youngstown State · South Dakota State

Youngstown State2-220
South Dakota State3-127Final
Sat, Sep 19 · Dana J. Dykhouse Stadium, Brookings, S.D. · Crowd 18,541Midco Sports Net

South Dakota State beat Youngstown State 27-20.

We had South Dakota State favored. It won.

Next: Youngstown State beat South Dakota 47-28, Sat Sep 26

Next: South Dakota State beat Eastern Illinois 42-7, Sat Sep 26

How it swung

The turning point: Brungard 11-yd TD pass to McDonald, Youngstown State goes ahead 10-7 (Q2, 3:35). South Dakota State went from 86% to 69% to win.

Before kickoff, our ratings gave South Dakota State a 79% chance, and the closing betting line (South Dakota State was a 9.5-point favorite) put it at 78%.

Favored the whole way: South Dakota State never fell below 68%.

Youngstown State never had better than a 31% chance.

FinalSouth Dakota State 27-20 Youngstown StateSouth Dakota State wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.
50%75%90%Q1Q2Q3Q489% at halfSouth Dakota StateWon27-201−17Scores
50%75%90%Q1Q2Q3Q489% at halfSouth Dakota StateWon27-201Scores
50%10%25%Q1Q2Q3Q411% at halfSouth Dakota StateLost20-271+17Scores
50%10%25%Q1Q2Q3Q411% at halfSouth Dakota StateLost20-271Scores

The play that swung it

  1. 1Q2 3:35Brungard 11-yd TD pass to McDonald, Youngstown State goes ahead 10-7South Dakota State 86% → 69% (−17)

The play that swung it

  1. 1Q2 3:35Brungard 11-yd TD pass to McDonald, Youngstown State goes ahead 10-7Youngstown State 14% → 31% (+17)
South Dakota State’s chance to win after every play.
How to read this chartStarts from the pregame line (South Dakota State -9.5), at 80% for South Dakota State (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores.

Every drive

South Dakota State scored on 5 of its 10 drives; Youngstown State on 4 of its 10.

South Dakota State’s drives are teal, Youngstown State’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.

own goalgoal lineQ1South Dakota State: Touchdown, from 84 yards out to 0TouchdownYoungstown State: Punt, from 75 yards out to 44PuntSouth Dakota State: Fumble, from 95 yards out to 0FumbleYoungstown State: Field goal, from 80 yards out to 21Field goalQ2South Dakota State: Punt, from 70 yards out to 55PuntYoungstown State: Touchdown, from 94 yards out to 0TouchdownSouth Dakota State: Touchdown, from 71 yards out to 0TouchdownYoungstown State: Interception, from 75 yards out to 75InterceptionSouth Dakota State: Field goal, from 26 yards out to 9Field goalYoungstown State: End of half, from 75 yards out to 76End of halfQ3Youngstown State: Punt, from 65 yards out to 54PuntSouth Dakota State: Touchdown, from 80 yards out to 0TouchdownYoungstown State: Touchdown, from 57 yards out to 0TouchdownSouth Dakota State: Field goal, from 75 yards out to 25Field goalQ4Youngstown State: Turned over on downs, from 75 yards out to 43DownsSouth Dakota State: Punt, from 57 yards out to 55PuntYoungstown State: Punt, from 91 yards out to 73PuntSouth Dakota State: Missed field goal, from 62 yards out to 31Missed FGYoungstown State: Field goal, from 69 yards out to 16Field goalSouth Dakota State: End of game, from 51 yards out to 7End of game

From Youngstown State’s side

Youngstown State’s best moment: Brungard 11-yd TD pass to McDonald, Youngstown State goes ahead 10-7 (Q2 3:35). It lifted Youngstown State’s win chance by 17 points.

Box score

South Dakota State 27, Youngstown State 20

Youngstown State covered +9.5 by 2.5. The total, 47, stayed under 59.5.

Youngstown State leaders

  • Passing Beau Brungard 27 of 35, 292 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT
  • Rushing Beau Brungard 13 for 32 yds; Jaden Gilbert 6 for 20 yds
  • Receiving Lynn Wyche-El 7 for 114 yds, 1 TD; Bryan Hunt 4 for 49 yds

South Dakota State leaders

  • Passing Chase Mason 9 of 13, 137 yds
  • Rushing Josiah Johnson 30 for 238 yds, 2 TD; Chase Mason 6 for 45 yds, 1 TD
  • Receiving Lofton O'Groske 7 for 94 yds; Jack Smith 3 for 30 yds

Before kickoff

Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.

Recent games

Last three games

Youngstown State · 2-1

Rated 147th in our preseason ratings, 146th now.

2-1 in its last three — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.

W 70-13 vs Duquesne #205 of 668

won by 57 as a 22.5-point favorite

Youngstown State won 70-13 vs Duquesne. Chance to win started at 95%, low 91%, high better than 99%.

L 13-45 @ KentuckyTop 25 #100 of 668

lost by 32 as a 22.5-point underdog

Youngstown State lost 13-45 at Kentucky. Chance to win started at 5%, low under 1%, high 5%.

W 43-10 vs Mercyhurst #227 of 668

won by 33 as a 30.5-point favorite

Youngstown State won 43-10 vs Mercyhurst. Chance to win started at 98%, low 96%, high better than 99%.

Last three games

South Dakota State · 2-1

Rated 105th in our preseason ratings, 100th now.

2-1 in its last three — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.

W 57-14 vs New Haven #255 of 668

won by 43 as a 42.5-point favorite

South Dakota State won 57-14 vs New Haven. Chance to win started at better than 99%, low 99%, high better than 99%.

L 18-34 @ NorthwesternTop 25 #14 of 668

lost by 16 as a 14-point underdog

South Dakota State lost 18-34 at Northwestern. Chance to win started at 13%, low under 1%, high 19%.

W 70-7 vs Stetson #263 of 668

won by 63 as a 50.5-point favorite

South Dakota State won 70-7 vs Stetson. Never in doubt.

Week by week

South Dakota State

Wk 1: W 70-7 vs Stetson▲63StetsonWk 1: L 18-34 at Northwestern▼16NorthwesternWk 2: W 57-14 vs New Haven▲43New Haven
  • Wk 1Wvs Stetson70-7
  • Wk 1Lat Northwestern18-34
  • Wk 2Wvs New Haven57-14

Youngstown State

Wk 1: W 43-10 vs Mercyhurst▲33MercyhurstWk 1: L 13-45 at Kentucky▼32KentuckyWk 2: W 70-13 vs Duquesne▲57Duquesne
  • Wk 1Wvs Mercyhurst43-10
  • Wk 1Lat Kentucky13-45
  • Wk 2Wvs Duquesne70-13

Power rating by week

South Dakota State is rated 3.2 points ahead as of week 2. Our power rating by week; higher is better.

-2-5-7Wk 0Wk 1Wk 2South Dakota StateYoungstown State

The series

South Dakota State leads the series 14-3

17 meetings since 2007 · South Dakota State has won the last 6

South Dakota State wonYoungstown State won2007: Youngstown State by 62008: South Dakota State by 332009: South Dakota State by 142010: South Dakota State by 102011: South Dakota State by 72012: South Dakota State by 132013: South Dakota State by 292014: Youngstown State by 32015: South Dakota State by 302016: South Dakota State by 142017: Youngstown State by 122018: South Dakota State by 292019: South Dakota State by 102021: South Dakota State by 312023: South Dakota State by 342024: South Dakota State by 502025: South Dakota State by 520072025
  • 2025South Dakota State 35-30
  • 2024South Dakota State 63-13
  • 2023South Dakota State 34-0
  • 2021South Dakota State 47-16
  • 2019South Dakota State 38-28

Line, fans and home field

The betting line, and the fans

Our model and the betting line agree on South Dakota State’s chances here.

50-50Model 79% · Line 78%Youngstown StateSouth Dakota State

South Dakota State favored by 9.5 · Total 59.5

How games like this usually go

South Dakota State by 9.5, and it went to form

50%90%Q1Q2Q3Q450%90%Q1Q2Q3Q4

Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game

The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 385 games since 2025 with a favorite of 7.5 to 14.5 points.

The market

The spread moved 0.5 points toward Youngstown State.

opened −10now −9.5

Spread: −10 → −9.5

The books’ cut: 5.3%, the margin built into the odds

Home field

South Dakota State is worth +6.3 points (±9.1) more at home than on the road since 2018 — top third of FBS, 84th percentile.

75% at home, 47% on the road against FBS opponents (6-2 home, 7-8 away).

Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads -0.4 at home vs. away over 58 games — inside the ±7.4 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.

Night kickoff — historically worth about half a point more to the home side against the number, and not much more than that. The visitors travel about 847 miles to get here.

Where next