Murray State at Oklahoma State
Oklahoma State (1‑1) hosts Murray State (1‑2). Too early for a market line, but the model likes Oklahoma State (71%).
How they got here
Last three games
Murray State · 1-2
Picked #254 in the preseason · now #256.
1-2 in its last three — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.
W 27–18 vs Valparaiso #244 of 669
won by 9 as a 14-point favorite
L 14–38 @ Middle Tennessee #136 of 669
lost by 24 as a 22.5-point underdog
L 14–28 vs Eastern Illinois #202 of 669
lost by 14 as a 4.5-point favorite
Last two games
Oklahoma State · 1-1
Picked #262 in the preseason · now #234 — better than expected.
1-1 in its last two, capped by a 8-point win over Oregon as a 24.5-point underdog.
What’s at stake
Murray State
- Murray State needs 5 more wins in the final 8 to reach bowl eligibility.
- Murray State is the Racers in their worst season ever — 1-11 in 2025, testing whether the program can climb out of the historic hole under new head coach Jody Wright.
Oklahoma State
- Oklahoma State is the program that lived in Mike Gundy's mullet for 20 years and built a Big 12 identity around being not-Oklahoma.
Face-off
What each fanbase carries into this one.
Murray State
The chipThe fanbase knows Murray State has hit rock bottom. The only direction now is up — every win in 2026 will feel like a triumph because the bar is so low.
What this game touches
The historic collapse. Murray State won just one game in 2025 — a program that once competed in the MVFC is now the team to beat if you're trying to go undefeated. The fanbase is in shock and the program is in crisis mode.
Oklahoma State
The chip · vs big brotherThe fanbase spent a generation insisting Stillwater was its own program, not a satellite of the school 80 miles south. A 1-11 season handed Oklahoma every easy joke — and the room is daring Morris to make the rivalry feel like a rivalry again.
What this game touches
The 1-11 collapse and the end of Gundy. Mike Gundy, the program's identity for 21 seasons, was fired on September 23 after a 1-2 start curdled into the worst year in modern memory: 1-11 overall, 0-9 in the Big 12, ten straight losses. The man who built Oklahoma State into a sustained winner left as the season that ended his tenure became the program's lowest point in a generation.
Best players
Oklahoma State
- Wyatt Young (WR) · 205 receiving yards
- Ethan Wesloski (LB) · 16 tackles
- Tate Romney (LB) · 14 tackles
Conditions
96°F · 14 mph wind
Oklahoma State is worth +4.5 points (±4.4) more at home than on the road since 2018 — middle of FBS, 60th percentile.
65% at home, 40% on the road against FBS opponents (31–17 home, 17–26 away).
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads +5.5 at home vs. away over 73 games — inside the ±7.7 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.
Night kickoff — historically worth about half a point more to the home side against the number, and not much more than that. The visitors travel about 488 miles to get here.
Recent games
Oklahoma State
- Wk 1Lat Tulsa10-24
- Wk 2Wvs Oregon39-31
Murray State
- Wk 1Lvs Eastern Illinois14-28
- Wk 1Lat Middle Tennessee14-38
- Wk 2Wvs Valparaiso27-18