Oklahoma State routs Colorado 57-24

Colorado2-524
Oklahoma State5-257Final
Sat, Oct 24 · Boone Pickens Stadium, Stillwater, Okla. · Crowd 52,168FS1

Oklahoma State routed Colorado 57-24.

We had Oklahoma State favored. It won.

Next: Colorado vs Kansas State, Sat Oct 31 · 2:00 PM ET · Colorado underdog by 2.5

Next: Oklahoma State at Iowa State, Sat Oct 31 · 7:00 PM ET · Oklahoma State favored by 8.5

Giving up 14 points\* to us in the 1st quarter is a cause for extreme concern OSU fans
A Colorado fan

How it swung

The turning point: Wilson 15-yd TD pass to Moore, Colorado goes ahead 14-7 (Q1, 0:03). Oklahoma State went from 79% to 57% to win.

Before kickoff, our ratings gave Oklahoma State a 63% chance, and the closing betting line (Oklahoma State was a 12.5-point favorite) put it at 84%.

FinalOklahoma State 57-24 ColoradoOklahoma State wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.
50%75%90%Q1Q2Q3Q470% at halfOklahoma StateWon57-2412−22−17ScoresO. StateColoradoOklahoma State fans: steadyOklahoma State fans: steadyOklahoma State fans: quietOklahoma State fans: quietOklahoma State fans: steadyOklahoma State fans: quietOklahoma State fans: quietOklahoma State fans: steadyOklahoma State fans: steadyOklahoma State fans: quietOklahoma State fans: quietOklahoma State fans: quietOklahoma State fans: quietOklahoma State fans: quietOklahoma State fans: steadyOklahoma State fans: steadyOklahoma State fans: quietOklahoma State fans: quietOklahoma State fans: steadyOklahoma State fans: steadyOklahoma State fans: steadyOklahoma State fans: steadyOklahoma State fans: loudOklahoma State fans: steadyOklahoma State fans: quietOklahoma State fans: quietOklahoma State fans: steadyOklahoma State fans: quietOklahoma State fans: quietOklahoma State fans: steadyOklahoma State fans: steadyOklahoma State fans: quietOklahoma State fans: loudOklahoma State fans: steadyOklahoma State fans: quietOklahoma State fans: quietOklahoma State fans: loudOklahoma State fans: steadyOklahoma State fans: loudOklahoma State fans: loudest stretchOklahoma State fans: steadyOklahoma State fans: steadyOklahoma State fans: steadyOklahoma State fans: quietOklahoma State fans: steadyOklahoma State fans: steadyOklahoma State fans: loudOklahoma State fans: steadyOklahoma State fans: quietOklahoma State fans: quietOklahoma State fans: steadyOklahoma State fans: quietOklahoma State fans: steadyOklahoma State fans: loudOklahoma State fans: quietOklahoma State fans: steadyOklahoma State fans: steadyOklahoma State fans: steadyOklahoma State fans: steadyOklahoma State fans: steadyColorado fans: steadyColorado fans: quietColorado fans: quietColorado fans: quietColorado fans: quietColorado fans: quietColorado fans: quietColorado fans: steadyColorado fans: quietColorado fans: quietColorado fans: steadyColorado fans: quietColorado fans: quietColorado fans: quietColorado fans: steadyColorado fans: quietColorado fans: quietColorado fans: steadyColorado fans: quietColorado fans: steadyColorado fans: quietColorado fans: steadyColorado fans: loudColorado fans: loudColorado fans: steadyColorado fans: quietColorado fans: steadyColorado fans: steadyColorado fans: quietColorado fans: steadyColorado fans: steadyColorado fans: quietColorado fans: quietColorado fans: quietColorado fans: loudColorado fans: quietColorado fans: quietColorado fans: quietColorado fans: quietColorado fans: quietColorado fans: quietColorado fans: quietColorado fans: steadyColorado fans: quietColorado fans: quietColorado fans: quietColorado fans: quietColorado fans: quietColorado fans: quietColorado fans: quietColorado fans: quietColorado fans: quietColorado fans: quietColorado fans: steadyColorado fans: quietColorado fans: quietColorado fans: quietColorado fans: quietColorado fans: quietColorado fans: quiet
50%75%90%Q1Q2Q3Q470% at halfOklahoma StateWon57-2412ScoresO. StateColoradoOklahoma State fans: steadyOklahoma State fans: steadyOklahoma State fans: quietOklahoma State fans: quietOklahoma State fans: steadyOklahoma State fans: quietOklahoma State fans: quietOklahoma State fans: steadyOklahoma State fans: steadyOklahoma State fans: quietOklahoma State fans: quietOklahoma State fans: quietOklahoma State fans: quietOklahoma State fans: quietOklahoma State fans: steadyOklahoma State fans: steadyOklahoma State fans: quietOklahoma State fans: quietOklahoma State fans: steadyOklahoma State fans: steadyOklahoma State fans: steadyOklahoma State fans: steadyOklahoma State fans: loudOklahoma State fans: steadyOklahoma State fans: quietOklahoma State fans: quietOklahoma State fans: steadyOklahoma State fans: quietOklahoma State fans: quietOklahoma State fans: steadyOklahoma State fans: steadyOklahoma State fans: quietOklahoma State fans: loudOklahoma State fans: steadyOklahoma State fans: quietOklahoma State fans: quietOklahoma State fans: loudOklahoma State fans: steadyOklahoma State fans: loudOklahoma State fans: loudest stretchOklahoma State fans: steadyOklahoma State fans: steadyOklahoma State fans: steadyOklahoma State fans: quietOklahoma State fans: steadyOklahoma State fans: steadyOklahoma State fans: loudOklahoma State fans: steadyOklahoma State fans: quietOklahoma State fans: quietOklahoma State fans: steadyOklahoma State fans: quietOklahoma State fans: steadyOklahoma State fans: loudOklahoma State fans: quietOklahoma State fans: steadyOklahoma State fans: steadyOklahoma State fans: steadyOklahoma State fans: steadyOklahoma State fans: steadyColorado fans: steadyColorado fans: quietColorado fans: quietColorado fans: quietColorado fans: quietColorado fans: quietColorado fans: quietColorado fans: steadyColorado fans: quietColorado fans: quietColorado fans: steadyColorado fans: quietColorado fans: quietColorado fans: quietColorado fans: steadyColorado fans: quietColorado fans: quietColorado fans: steadyColorado fans: quietColorado fans: steadyColorado fans: quietColorado fans: steadyColorado fans: loudColorado fans: loudColorado fans: steadyColorado fans: quietColorado fans: steadyColorado fans: steadyColorado fans: quietColorado fans: steadyColorado fans: steadyColorado fans: quietColorado fans: quietColorado fans: quietColorado fans: loudColorado fans: quietColorado fans: quietColorado fans: quietColorado fans: quietColorado fans: quietColorado fans: quietColorado fans: quietColorado fans: steadyColorado fans: quietColorado fans: quietColorado fans: quietColorado fans: quietColorado fans: quietColorado fans: quietColorado fans: quietColorado fans: quietColorado fans: quietColorado fans: quietColorado fans: steadyColorado fans: quietColorado fans: quietColorado fans: quietColorado fans: quietColorado fans: quietColorado fans: quiet
50%10%25%Q1Q2Q3Q430% at halfOklahoma StateLowest 0%Lost24-5712+22+17ScoresColoradoO. StateColorado fans: steadyColorado fans: quietColorado fans: quietColorado fans: quietColorado fans: quietColorado fans: quietColorado fans: quietColorado fans: steadyColorado fans: quietColorado fans: quietColorado fans: steadyColorado fans: quietColorado fans: quietColorado fans: quietColorado fans: steadyColorado fans: quietColorado fans: quietColorado fans: steadyColorado fans: quietColorado fans: steadyColorado fans: quietColorado fans: steadyColorado fans: loudColorado fans: loudColorado fans: steadyColorado fans: quietColorado fans: steadyColorado fans: steadyColorado fans: quietColorado fans: steadyColorado fans: steadyColorado fans: quietColorado fans: quietColorado fans: quietColorado fans: loudColorado fans: quietColorado fans: quietColorado fans: quietColorado fans: quietColorado fans: quietColorado fans: quietColorado fans: quietColorado fans: steadyColorado fans: quietColorado fans: quietColorado fans: quietColorado fans: quietColorado fans: quietColorado fans: quietColorado fans: quietColorado fans: quietColorado fans: quietColorado fans: quietColorado fans: steadyColorado fans: quietColorado fans: quietColorado fans: quietColorado fans: quietColorado fans: quietColorado fans: quietOklahoma State fans: steadyOklahoma State fans: steadyOklahoma State fans: quietOklahoma State fans: quietOklahoma State fans: steadyOklahoma State fans: quietOklahoma State fans: quietOklahoma State fans: steadyOklahoma State fans: steadyOklahoma State fans: quietOklahoma State fans: quietOklahoma State fans: quietOklahoma State fans: quietOklahoma State fans: quietOklahoma State fans: steadyOklahoma State fans: steadyOklahoma State fans: quietOklahoma State fans: quietOklahoma State fans: steadyOklahoma State fans: steadyOklahoma State fans: steadyOklahoma State fans: steadyOklahoma State fans: loudOklahoma State fans: steadyOklahoma State fans: quietOklahoma State fans: quietOklahoma State fans: steadyOklahoma State fans: quietOklahoma State fans: quietOklahoma State fans: steadyOklahoma State fans: steadyOklahoma State fans: quietOklahoma State fans: loudOklahoma State fans: steadyOklahoma State fans: quietOklahoma State fans: quietOklahoma State fans: loudOklahoma State fans: steadyOklahoma State fans: loudOklahoma State fans: loudest stretchOklahoma State fans: steadyOklahoma State fans: steadyOklahoma State fans: steadyOklahoma State fans: quietOklahoma State fans: steadyOklahoma State fans: steadyOklahoma State fans: loudOklahoma State fans: steadyOklahoma State fans: quietOklahoma State fans: quietOklahoma State fans: steadyOklahoma State fans: quietOklahoma State fans: steadyOklahoma State fans: loudOklahoma State fans: quietOklahoma State fans: steadyOklahoma State fans: steadyOklahoma State fans: steadyOklahoma State fans: steadyOklahoma State fans: steady
50%10%25%Q1Q2Q3Q430% at halfOklahoma StateLowest 0%Lost24-5712ScoresColoradoO. StateColorado fans: steadyColorado fans: quietColorado fans: quietColorado fans: quietColorado fans: quietColorado fans: quietColorado fans: quietColorado fans: steadyColorado fans: quietColorado fans: quietColorado fans: steadyColorado fans: quietColorado fans: quietColorado fans: quietColorado fans: steadyColorado fans: quietColorado fans: quietColorado fans: steadyColorado fans: quietColorado fans: steadyColorado fans: quietColorado fans: steadyColorado fans: loudColorado fans: loudColorado fans: steadyColorado fans: quietColorado fans: steadyColorado fans: steadyColorado fans: quietColorado fans: steadyColorado fans: steadyColorado fans: quietColorado fans: quietColorado fans: quietColorado fans: loudColorado fans: quietColorado fans: quietColorado fans: quietColorado fans: quietColorado fans: quietColorado fans: quietColorado fans: quietColorado fans: steadyColorado fans: quietColorado fans: quietColorado fans: quietColorado fans: quietColorado fans: quietColorado fans: quietColorado fans: quietColorado fans: quietColorado fans: quietColorado fans: quietColorado fans: steadyColorado fans: quietColorado fans: quietColorado fans: quietColorado fans: quietColorado fans: quietColorado fans: quietOklahoma State fans: steadyOklahoma State fans: steadyOklahoma State fans: quietOklahoma State fans: quietOklahoma State fans: steadyOklahoma State fans: quietOklahoma State fans: quietOklahoma State fans: steadyOklahoma State fans: steadyOklahoma State fans: quietOklahoma State fans: quietOklahoma State fans: quietOklahoma State fans: quietOklahoma State fans: quietOklahoma State fans: steadyOklahoma State fans: steadyOklahoma State fans: quietOklahoma State fans: quietOklahoma State fans: steadyOklahoma State fans: steadyOklahoma State fans: steadyOklahoma State fans: steadyOklahoma State fans: loudOklahoma State fans: steadyOklahoma State fans: quietOklahoma State fans: quietOklahoma State fans: steadyOklahoma State fans: quietOklahoma State fans: quietOklahoma State fans: steadyOklahoma State fans: steadyOklahoma State fans: quietOklahoma State fans: loudOklahoma State fans: steadyOklahoma State fans: quietOklahoma State fans: quietOklahoma State fans: loudOklahoma State fans: steadyOklahoma State fans: loudOklahoma State fans: loudest stretchOklahoma State fans: steadyOklahoma State fans: steadyOklahoma State fans: steadyOklahoma State fans: quietOklahoma State fans: steadyOklahoma State fans: steadyOklahoma State fans: loudOklahoma State fans: steadyOklahoma State fans: quietOklahoma State fans: quietOklahoma State fans: steadyOklahoma State fans: quietOklahoma State fans: steadyOklahoma State fans: loudOklahoma State fans: quietOklahoma State fans: steadyOklahoma State fans: steadyOklahoma State fans: steadyOklahoma State fans: steadyOklahoma State fans: steady

The two plays that swung it

  1. 1Q1 0:03Wilson 15-yd TD pass to Moore, Colorado goes ahead 14-7Oklahoma State 79% → 57% (−22)
  2. 2Q2 6:19Wilson 1-yd TD run, Colorado goes ahead 21-17Oklahoma State 83% → 66% (−17)

The two plays that swung it

  1. 1Q1 0:03Wilson 15-yd TD pass to Moore, Colorado goes ahead 14-7Colorado 21% → 43% (+22)
  2. 2Q2 6:19Wilson 1-yd TD run, Colorado goes ahead 21-17Colorado 17% → 34% (+17)

Am I going crazy that looked like a catch and fumble

Q2 0:14 · A Colorado fan · r/CFB game thread

What fans said, play by play

The line in bold above each quote is written by our model from the thread’s comments and the play-by-play.

  1. Q2 8:20Fans argue Wilson pass to Williams is offensive PI, not touchdownThey'll review a previous play post snap, do a weird grounding call, but allow a big ol OPI? Yeah, this'll be a TD.r/CFB game thread
  2. Q2 4:04Colorado fans praise Wilson while Oklahoma State fans lament their defenseI'll be honest. I thought Pokes fans were overselling how bad the defense was. They were not.r/CFB game thread
  3. Q2 0:14Fans debate if Mestemaker pass to Young was a catch and fumbleRough stretch for Wyatt Young. Hold on to the ball manr/CFB game thread
  4. Q3 6:41Wyatt Young drops passes as Oklahoma State fans demand he be benchedWyatt has had butterfingers all gamer/CFB game thread
  5. Q4 10:02Young scores touchdown as Oklahoma State fans mock his missing jersey nameplateThey took young’s name of his jersey?r/CFB game thread
Oklahoma State’s chance to win after every play.
How to read this chartStarts from the pregame line (Oklahoma State -12.5), at 86% for Oklahoma State (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores. Under the scores, r/CFB comments per minute from fans with a Oklahoma State or Colorado flair (326 and 202); both sides share one scale, regulation only. A gold diamond marks a play fans were reacting to.

Watch the plays

The bar and the arrow show Oklahoma State’s chance to win after each play; the logo is the team the play helped.

  1. Q1, 14:01Mestemaker 47-yd TD pass to ColemanOklahoma State goes ahead 7-0Q1, 14:01 · Oklahoma State 7, Colorado 0▲7%Oklahoma State’s chance to win, 86% to 93%▲7%Oklahoma State’s chance to win, 86% to 93%Watch from this playCFB ON FOX
  2. Q1, 7:23Wilson 4-yd TD pass to Smithties it 7-7Q1, 7:23 · Oklahoma State 7, Colorado 7▼5%Oklahoma State’s chance to win, 89% to 84%▼5%Oklahoma State’s chance to win, 89% to 84%Watch from this playCFB ON FOX
  3. Q1, 0:03Wilson 15-yd TD pass to MooreColorado goes ahead 14-7Q1, 0:03 · Oklahoma State 7, Colorado 14▼22%Oklahoma State’s chance to win, 79% to 57%▼22%Oklahoma State’s chance to win, 79% to 57%Watch from this playCFB ON FOX
  4. Q2, 6:19Wilson 1-yd TD runColorado goes ahead 21-17Q2, 6:19 · Oklahoma State 17, Colorado 21▼17%Oklahoma State’s chance to win, 83% to 66%▼17%Oklahoma State’s chance to win, 83% to 66%Watch from this playCFB ON FOX
  5. Q2, 0:29Mestemaker sacked for a 9-yd lossQ2, 0:29 · Oklahoma State 20, Colorado 24▼6%Oklahoma State’s chance to win, 74% to 68%▼6%Oklahoma State’s chance to win, 74% to 68%Watch from this playCFB ON FOX
  6. Q3, 14:58Wilson run for a 3-yd lossfumblesQ3, 14:58 · Oklahoma State 23, Colorado 24▲11%Oklahoma State’s chance to win, 70% to 81%▲11%Oklahoma State’s chance to win, 70% to 81%Watch from this playCFB ON FOX
  7. Q3, 14:11Mestemaker 3-yd TD pass to McPhaulOklahoma State goes ahead 30-24Q3, 14:11 · Oklahoma State 30, Colorado 24▲6%Oklahoma State’s chance to win, 81% to 87%▲6%Oklahoma State’s chance to win, 81% to 87%Watch from this playCFB ON FOX
  8. Q3, 8:48Mason 3-yd TD runOklahoma State leads 37-24Q3, 8:48 · Oklahoma State 37, Colorado 24▲4%Oklahoma State’s chance to win, 92% to 96%▲4%Oklahoma State’s chance to win, 92% to 96%Watch from this playCFB ON FOX
  9. Q3, 3:54Wilson intercepted by Fields at the OSU30Q3, 3:54 · Oklahoma State 37, Colorado 24▲2%Oklahoma State’s chance to win, 95% to 97%▲2%Oklahoma State’s chance to win, 95% to 97%Watch from this playCFB ON FOX
  10. Q4, 9:29Mestemaker 28-yd TD pass to YoungOklahoma State leads 47-24Q4, 9:29 · Oklahoma State 47, Colorado 2447-24score after the play47-24score after the playWatch from this playCFB ON FOX
  11. Q4, 7:48Wilson intercepted by Fields at the Colorado 45returned 36 yardsQ4, 7:48 · Oklahoma State 47, Colorado 2447-24score after the play47-24score after the playWatch from this playCFB ON FOX
  12. Q4, 1:18Page 18-yd TD runOklahoma State leads 57-24Q4, 1:18 · Oklahoma State 57, Colorado 2457-24score after the play57-24score after the playWatch from this playCFB ON FOX
  13. Q4, 0:13Sweetwyne sacked for a 2-yd lossQ4, 0:13 · Oklahoma State 57, Colorado 2457-24score after the play57-24score after the playWatch from this playCFB ON FOX

Every drive

Oklahoma State scored on 11 of its 13 drives; Colorado on 4 of its 14.

Oklahoma State’s drives are teal, Colorado’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.

own goalgoal lineQ1Oklahoma State: Touchdown, from 75 yards out to 0TouchdownColorado: Touchdown, from 75 yards out to 0TouchdownOklahoma State: Punt, from 75 yards out to 68PuntColorado: Touchdown, from 71 yards out to 0TouchdownOklahoma State: Field goal, from 75 yards out to 29Field goalQ2Colorado: Punt, from 70 yards out to 70PuntOklahoma State: Touchdown, from 69 yards out to 0TouchdownColorado: Touchdown, from 75 yards out to 0TouchdownOklahoma State: Field goal, from 75 yards out to 11Field goalColorado: Field goal, from 75 yards out to 27Field goalOklahoma State: Field goal, from 75 yards out to 23Field goalColorado: End of half, from 88 yards out to 88End of halfQ3Colorado: Fumble, from 75 yards out to 78FumbleOklahoma State: Touchdown, from 13 yards out to 0TouchdownColorado: Punt, from 75 yards out to 63PuntOklahoma State: Touchdown, from 78 yards out to 0TouchdownColorado: Punt, from 75 yards out to 55PuntOklahoma State: Punt, from 92 yards out to 70PuntColorado: Interception, from 58 yards out to 52InterceptionOklahoma State: Field goal, from 67 yards out to 3Field goalQ4Colorado: Punt, from 75 yards out to 75PuntOklahoma State: Touchdown, from 62 yards out to 0TouchdownColorado: Interception, from 75 yards out to 59InterceptionOklahoma State: Field goal, from 9 yards out to 12Field goalColorado: Punt, from 75 yards out to 72PuntOklahoma State: Touchdown, from 58 yards out to 0TouchdownColorado: End of game, from 77 yards out to 31End of game

From Colorado’s side

Colorado’s best moment: Wilson 15-yd TD pass to Moore, Colorado goes ahead 14-7 (Q1 0:03). It lifted Colorado’s win chance by 22 points.

How fans reacted

Steady

Fans had the most to say in the second quarter.

Jump to the loudest stretch

The jump was steady; the crowd was quiet.

FirstSecondThirdFourthOklahoma State fansColorado fansusual

Box score

Oklahoma State 57, Colorado 24

Oklahoma State covered −12.5 by 20.5. The total, 81, went over 55.5.

ColoradoOklahoma StateTotal yardsColorado 399Oklahoma State 598399598Passing yardsColorado 343Oklahoma State 410343410Rushing yardsColorado 56Oklahoma State 18856188First downsColorado 17Oklahoma State 281728TurnoversColorado 3Oklahoma State 030Time of possessionColorado 29:15Oklahoma State 30:4529:1530:45
Team totalsColoradoOklahoma State
Total yards399598
Passing22 of 32, 343 yds23 of 38, 410 yds
Rushing30 for 56 yds38 for 188 yds
First downs1728
Third down5 of 136 of 14
Fourth down1 of 10 of 0
Turnovers30
Penalties11 for 84 yds7 for 50 yds
Time of possession29:1530:45

Colorado leaders

  • Passing Isaac Wilson 19 of 27, 280 yds, 2 TD, 2 INT
  • Rushing Jaquail Smith 13 for 39 yds; Isaac Wilson 14 for 16 yds, 1 TD
  • Receiving Joseph Williams 9 for 135 yds; DeAndre Moore Jr. 5 for 106 yds, 1 TD

Oklahoma State leaders

  • Passing Drew Mestemaker 21 of 36, 386 yds, 4 TD
  • Rushing Caleb Hawkins 19 for 120 yds; Tre Page III 4 for 30 yds, 1 TD
  • Receiving Justin Bowick 5 for 138 yds, 1 TD; Wyatt Young 4 for 78 yds, 1 TD

No rain and calm

76° at kickoff · no rain recorded · wind 6 mph from the southeast, gusts to 9

October game-day temperatures at Boone Pickens Stadium

Win chance with rain, wind and thunder from the nearest airport, by game timeQ1Q2Q3Q4Oklahoma State favoredColorado favored100%Win chanceOklahoma StateRaininches per 10 min0.1 inNo rain recordedWindmph, average and gusts20 mph40 mph
Win chance with rain, wind and thunder from the nearest airport, by game timeQ1Q2Q3Q4Oklahoma State favoredColorado favoredRain · inches per 10 min0.1 inNo rain recordedWind · miles per hour2040

Drag along the chart, or step through the game.

First quarter, 0:03 left6:39 p.m.
Colorado 14, Oklahoma State 7 · Oklahoma State 57% to win
no rain · wind 6 mph from the southeast · 72°
Wilson 15-yd TD pass to Moore, Colorado goes ahead 14-7

Jump to

Where this weather comes fromMeasured at Stillwater Muni airport, 2.7 miles away. Wind and rain are airport readings near the stadium, not on the field. Game times come from the play-by-play, good to a minute or two. Source: National Weather Service, through the Iowa Environmental Mesonet. Field direction from OpenStreetMap contributors.

Before kickoff

Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.

Recent games

Last three games

Colorado · 2-4

Rated 163rd in our preseason ratings, 94th now, up 69 spots.

Three straight losses.

L 24-27 vs UtahTop 25 No. 21 of 668 teams

lost by 3 as a 15.5-point underdog

Colorado lost 24-27 vs Utah. Chance to win started at 19%, low under 1%, high 47%.

L 7-29 vs Texas TechTop 25 No. 10 of 668 teams

lost by 22 as a 13.5-point underdog

Colorado lost 7-29 vs Texas Tech. Chance to win started at 24%, low under 1%, high 54%.

L 13-23 @ Baylor No. 37 of 668 teams

lost by 10 as an 8.5-point underdog

Colorado lost 13-23 at Baylor. Chance to win started at 18%, low under 1%, high 35%.

Last three games

Oklahoma State · 4-2

Rated 262nd in our preseason ratings, 99th now, up 163 spots.

2-1 in its last three, including a 17-point win over West Virginia as a 1.5-point underdog.

W 59-0 vs Murray State No. 260 of 668 teams

won by 59 as a 56.5-point favorite

Oklahoma State won 59-0 vs Murray State. Never in doubt.

W 39-31 vs OregonTop 25 No. 5 of 668 teams

won by 8 as a 24.5-point underdog

Oklahoma State won 39-31 vs Oregon. Chance to win started at 8%, low 4%, high better than 99%.

L 10-24 @ Tulsa No. 113 of 668 teams

lost by 14 as a 13.5-point favorite

Oklahoma State lost 10-24 at Tulsa. Chance to win started at 77%, low under 1%, high 85%.

Week by week

Oklahoma State

Wk 2: W 39-31 vs Oregon▲8OregonWk 3: W 59-0 vs Murray State▲59Murray S…Wk 4: W 41-24 at West Virginia▲17W. Virgi…Wk 6: W 42-28 vs UCF▲14UCFWk 7: L 32-35 at Houston▼3Houston
  • Wk 2Wvs Oregon39-31
  • Wk 3Wvs Murray State59-0
  • Wk 4Wat West Virginia41-24
  • Wk 6Wvs UCF42-28
  • Wk 7Lat Houston32-35

Colorado

Wk 2: W 52-21 vs Weber State▲31Weber St.Wk 3: L 7-41 at Northwestern▼34Northwes…Wk 4: L 13-23 at Baylor▼10BaylorWk 5: L 7-29 vs Texas Tech▼22T. TechWk 7: L 24-27 vs Utah▼3Utah
  • Wk 2Wvs Weber State52-21
  • Wk 3Lat Northwestern7-41
  • Wk 4Lat Baylor13-23
  • Wk 5Lvs Texas Tech7-29
  • Wk 7Lvs Utah24-27

Power rating by week

Colorado is rated 0.5 points ahead as of week 7. Our power rating by week; higher is better.

1-7-15Wk 0Wk 4Wk 7Oklahoma StateColorado

Matchups

Biggest mismatch: Colorado’s rushing EPA against Oklahoma State, 73 points

Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.

  1. Colorado’s rushing EPA against Oklahoma State’s defense

    73 pointsweakerstronger50th

    Colorado offense, 6th percentile · Oklahoma State defense, 79th

  2. Colorado’s EPA/play against Oklahoma State’s defense

    43 pointsweakerstronger50th

    Colorado offense, 12th percentile · Oklahoma State defense, 55th

  3. Oklahoma State’s explosive plays against Colorado’s defense

    19 pointsweakerstronger50th

    Oklahoma State offense, 26th percentile · Colorado defense, 45th

Season profile, all the rows

Season profile

ColoradoOklahoma State
EPA/play, offense
Colorado · 12Oklahoma State ·…
EPA/play, defense
Colorado · 60Oklahoma State · 55
Success rate, offense
Colorado · 21Oklahoma State · 95
Success rate, defense
Colorado · 62Oklahoma State · 50
Explosive-play rate, offense
Colorado · 47Oklahoma State · 26
Explosive-play rate, defense
Colorado · 45Oklahoma State · 58
Rush EPA, offense
Colorado · 6Oklahoma State · 52
Rush EPA, defense
Colorado · 84Oklahoma State · 79
Pass EPA, offense
Colorado · 26Oklahoma State · 93
Pass EPA, defense
Colorado · 29Oklahoma State · 58

The series

Colorado leads the series 27-20-1

48 meetings since 1920 · Colorado won the last meeting

Oklahoma State wonColorado won1920: Colorado by 331933: Colorado by 61960: Colorado by 71961: Colorado by 241962: Oklahoma State by 201963: Colorado by 251964: Oklahoma State by 41965: Colorado by 231966: Oklahoma State by 11967: Oklahoma State by 31968: Oklahoma State by 171969: Colorado by 31970: Colorado by 241971: Colorado by 341972: Oklahoma State by 251973: Oklahoma State by 141974: Colorado by 171975: Colorado by 101976: Colorado by 101977: Colorado by 161978: Oklahoma State by 41979: Oklahoma State by 11980: Oklahoma State by 351981: Colorado by 11982: tie1983: Oklahoma State by 261984: Oklahoma State by 61985: Oklahoma State by 31986: Colorado by 171987: Oklahoma State by 251988: Oklahoma State by 201989: Colorado by 241990: Colorado by 191991: Colorado by 41992: Colorado by 281993: Colorado by 171994: Colorado by 141995: Colorado by 131996: Colorado by 221997: Oklahoma State by 42000: Colorado by 162001: Colorado by 32004: Oklahoma State by 282005: Colorado by 342008: Oklahoma State by 132009: Oklahoma State by 32016: Oklahoma State by 302024: Colorado by 5219202024
  • 2024Colorado 52-0Oklahoma State lost 0-52 at Colorado. Chance to win started at 16%, low under 1%, high 16%.
  • 2016 · neutral siteOklahoma State 38-8
  • 2009Oklahoma State 31-28
  • 2008Oklahoma State 30-17
  • 2005Colorado 34-0

Each line is Oklahoma State’s chance to win through that meeting. Older meetings have no play by play, so no line.

Line, fans and home field

The betting line, and the fans

Oklahoma State fans are feeling it more than most fanbases this week (70th percentile among FBS fanbases), in line with the numbers.

  • Model · 63%
  • Line · 84%
  • Oklahoma State fans · 70th
  • Colorado fans · 40th

Oklahoma State favored by 12.5 · Total 55.5

How games like this usually go

Oklahoma State by 12.5, and it went to form

50%90%Q1Q2Q3Q450%90%Q1Q2Q3Q4

Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game

The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 415 games since 2025 with a favorite of 7.5 to 14.5 points.

The market

The spread moved 2 points toward Colorado.

opened −14.5now −12.5

Spread: −14.5 → −12.5

The books’ cut: 4.2%, the margin built into the odds

Home field

Oklahoma State is worth +4.6 points (±4.2) more at home than on the road since 2018 — middle of FBS, 59th percentile.

66% at home, 40% on the road against FBS opponents (33-17 home, 18-27 away).

Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads +2.9 at home vs. away over 101 games — inside the ±6.6 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.

Night kickoff — historically worth about half a point more to the home side against the number, and not much more than that. The visitors travel about 520 miles to get here.

Last meeting in our History pages

Where next

Conference standings

Going into this game: place in the conference, then conference record.

Full Big 12 standings