Youngstown State beats North Dakota 31-28
Team pages: North Dakota · Youngstown State
Youngstown State beat North Dakota 31-28 after its win chance fell to 9%. Share this game
Winners have been down to 9% or less in about 1 of every 12 games since 2018.
We had Youngstown State favored. It won.
Next: North Dakota vs Illinois State, Sat Nov 7 · 2:00 PM ET
Next: Youngstown State at Murray State, Sat Nov 7 · 2:00 PM ET
How it swung
The turning point: Tupou'ata-Johnson 9-yd TD pass to Kaminski, North Dakota leads 21-7 (Q2, 7:03). Youngstown State went from 38% to 17% to win.
Before kickoff, our ratings gave Youngstown State a 65% chance, and the closing betting line (Youngstown State was a 5.5-point favorite) put it at 67%.
North Dakota · Q1 5:44TargetingQ2 6:25
Youngstown State 31-28 North DakotaYoungstown State wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.North Dakota 28-31 Youngstown StateNorth Dakota lostMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.The two plays that swung it
- 1Q2 7:03Tupou'ata-Johnson 9-yd TD pass to Kaminski, North Dakota leads 21-7Youngstown State 38% → 17% (−21)
- 2Q4 2:044th and 19Brungard 20-yd TD pass to Wyche-El, Youngstown State goes ahead 31-28Youngstown State 58% → 79% (+21)
The two plays that swung it
- 1Q2 7:03Tupou'ata-Johnson 9-yd TD pass to Kaminski, North Dakota leads 21-7North Dakota 62% → 83% (+21)
- 2Q4 2:044th and 19Brungard 20-yd TD pass to Wyche-El, Youngstown State goes ahead 31-28North Dakota 42% → 21% (−21)
How to read this chart
Starts from the pregame line (Youngstown State -5.5), at 71% for Youngstown State (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores. Outlined diamonds mark rare plays.Every drive
Youngstown State scored on 5 of its 11 drives; North Dakota on 4 of its 10.
Youngstown State’s drives are teal, North Dakota’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.
From North Dakota’s side
North Dakota’s best moment: Tupou'ata-Johnson 9-yd TD pass to Kaminski, North Dakota leads 21-7 (Q2 7:03). It lifted North Dakota’s win chance by 21 points.
The winner fell to 9%.
Box score
Youngstown State 31, North Dakota 28
North Dakota covered +5.5 by 2.5. The total, 59, stayed under 59.5.
North Dakota leaders
- Passing Jerry Kaminski 18 of 33, 195 yds, 1 TD, 2 INT
- Rushing Matt Lawson 17 for 99 yds; Jerry Kaminski 10 for 44 yds, 1 TD
- Receiving Deng Deng 7 for 84 yds; Korey Tai 2 for 42 yds
Youngstown State leaders
- Passing Beau Brungard 19 of 29, 268 yds, 3 TD
- Rushing Jaden Gilbert 13 for 68 yds, 1 TD; Beau Brungard 15 for 64 yds
- Receiving Lynn Wyche-El 6 for 148 yds, 3 TD; Roger Walters 2 for 54 yds
Before kickoff
Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.
Recent games
Last three games
North Dakota · 6-3
Rated 123rd in our preseason ratings, 101st now, up 22 spots.
1-2 in its last three, including a 11-point win over South Dakota State as a 14-point underdog.
Last three games
Youngstown State · 6-2
Rated 147th in our preseason ratings, 95th now, up 52 spots.
Three straight wins — but still hunting a ranked opponent.
Week by week
Youngstown State
- Wk 3Lat South Dakota State20-27
- Wk 4Wvs South Dakota47-28
- Wk 5Wat Southern Illinois28-16
- Wk 6Wat Indiana State57-24
- Wk 7Wvs Northern Iowa35-22
North Dakota
- Wk 4Wat Indiana State42-35
- Wk 5Wvs Murray State55-28
- Wk 6Lat Northern Iowa17-24
- Wk 7Wvs South Dakota State21-10
- Wk 8Lat South Dakota23-26
Power rating by week
Youngstown State is rated 0.9 points ahead as of week 8. Our power rating by week; higher is better.
The series
North Dakota leads the series 3-1
4 meetings since 2021 · North Dakota won the last meeting
- 2025North Dakota 35-17
- 2024Youngstown State 41-40
- 2022North Dakota 35-30
- 2021North Dakota 24-21
Line, fans and home field
The betting line, and the fans
Our model and the betting line agree on Youngstown State’s chances here.
Youngstown State favored by 5.5 · Total 59.5
How games like this usually go
Youngstown State by 5.5, and it went to form
Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game
The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 426 games since 2025 with a favorite of 3.5 to 7.5 points.
The market
The spread moved 1 point toward North Dakota.
The total fell 4 points.
Spread: −6.5 → −5.5 · Total: 63.5 → 59.5
The books’ cut: 5.3%, the margin built into the odds
Home field
Youngstown State is worth +5.3 points (±12.5) more at home than on the road since 2018 — top third of FBS, 69th percentile.
50% at home, 0% on the road against FBS opponents (2-2 home, 0-12 away).
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads +3.8 at home vs. away over 57 games — inside the ±6.0 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.
The visitors travel about 934 miles to get here.
Where next
Conference standings
Going into this game: place in the conference, then conference record.
- Youngstown State1st4-1
- North Dakota4th3-2