South Dakota beats North Dakota 26-23 in overtime
Team pages: North Dakota · South Dakota
South Dakota beat North Dakota 26-23 in overtime. Share this game
We had South Dakota favored. It won.
Next: North Dakota at Youngstown State, Sat Oct 31 · 12:00 PM ET
Next: South Dakota at South Dakota State, Sat Oct 31 · 4:00 PM ET
How it swung
The turning point: Modrzewski 14-yd TD pass to White, South Dakota goes ahead 26-23 (OT). South Dakota went from 57% to 100% to win.
Before kickoff, our ratings gave South Dakota a 69% chance, and the closing betting line (South Dakota was a 3-point favorite) put it at 60%.
A tight one: South Dakota bottomed out at 38% and won.
North Dakota never had better than a 62% chance.
North Dakota · OT
South Dakota 26-23 North DakotaSouth Dakota wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.North Dakota 23-26 South DakotaNorth Dakota lostMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.The three plays that swung it
- 1Q4 1:104th and 10Kaminski 32-yd pass to StrandellSouth Dakota 92% → 66% (−26)
- 2OTLaughman 38-yd field goal, North Dakota goes ahead 23-20South Dakota 79% → 57% (−22)
- 3OTModrzewski 14-yd TD pass to White, South Dakota goes ahead 26-23South Dakota 57% → 100% (+43)
The three plays that swung it
- 1Q4 1:104th and 10Kaminski 32-yd pass to StrandellNorth Dakota 8% → 34% (+26)
- 2OTLaughman 38-yd field goal, North Dakota goes ahead 23-20North Dakota 21% → 43% (+22)
- 3OTModrzewski 14-yd TD pass to White, South Dakota goes ahead 26-23North Dakota 43% → 0% (−43)
How to read this chart
Starts from the pregame line (South Dakota -3), at 69% for South Dakota (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores. Outlined diamonds mark rare plays.Every drive
South Dakota scored on 5 of its 14 drives; North Dakota on 5 of its 13.
South Dakota’s drives are teal, North Dakota’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.
From North Dakota’s side
North Dakota’s best moment: Kaminski 32-yd pass to Strandell (Q4 1:10). It lifted North Dakota’s win chance by 26 points.
Box score
South Dakota 26, North Dakota 23
The game landed on the closing spread. The total, 49, stayed under 57.5.
North Dakota leaders
- Passing Jerry Kaminski 25 of 46, 251 yds
- Rushing Matt Lawson 10 for 46 yds, 1 TD; Jerry Kaminski 5 for 30 yds
- Receiving Deng Deng 8 for 88 yds; Sam Strandell 5 for 76 yds
South Dakota leaders
- Passing Austyn Modrzewski 15 of 22, 159 yds, 2 TD
- Rushing Charles Pierre Jr. 21 for 128 yds; Reid Watkins 6 for 30 yds
- Receiving Brayden White 6 for 101 yds, 1 TD; Carson Fletcher 2 for 31 yds
Before kickoff
Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.
Recent games
Last three games
North Dakota · 6-2
Rated 123rd in our preseason ratings, 108th now, up 15 spots.
2-1 in its last three, capped by a 11-point win over South Dakota State as a 14-point underdog.
Last three games
South Dakota · 6-2
Rated 121st in our preseason ratings, 92nd now, up 29 spots.
Three straight wins — but still hunting a ranked opponent.
W 48-20 @ Murray State No. 261 of 668 teams
won by 28 as a 28.5-point favorite
W 31-10 vs Southern Illinois No. 171 of 668 teams
won by 21 as a 10.5-point favorite
W 44-14 vs Indiana State No. 210 of 668 teams
won by 30 as a 16.5-point favorite
W 38-23 @ Northern Colorado No. 254 of 668 teams
won by 15 as a 20.5-point favorite
W 59-20 vs Central Connecticut No. 189 of 668 teams
won by 39 as a 20.5-point favorite
Week by week
South Dakota
- Wk 3Lat Boise State24-38
- Wk 4Lat Youngstown State28-47
- Wk 5Wvs Indiana State44-14
- Wk 6Wvs Southern Illinois31-10
- Wk 7Wat Murray State48-20
North Dakota
- Wk 3Lat Nebraska7-34
- Wk 4Wat Indiana State42-35
- Wk 5Wvs Murray State55-28
- Wk 6Lat Northern Iowa17-24
- Wk 7Wvs South Dakota State21-10
Power rating by week
South Dakota is rated 1.1 points ahead as of week 7. Our power rating by week; higher is better.
The series
South Dakota leads the series 6-4
10 meetings since 2009 · South Dakota has won the last 3
- 2025South Dakota 26-21
- 2024South Dakota 42-36
- 2023South Dakota 14-10
- 2022North Dakota 28-19
- 2021South Dakota 20-13
Line, fans and home field
The betting line, and the fans
Our model and the betting line don’t fully agree on South Dakota’s chances here.
South Dakota favored by 3 · Total 57.5
How games like this usually go
South Dakota by 3, and it went to form
Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game
The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 287 games since 2025 with a favorite of under 3.5 points.
The market
The spread moved 0.5 points toward South Dakota.
The total rose 1 point.
Spread: −2.5 → −3 · Total: 56.5 → 57.5
The books’ cut: 5.2%, the margin built into the odds
Home field
South Dakota is worth +4.9 points (±9.4) more at home than on the road since 2018 — middle of FBS, 62nd percentile.
57% at home, 14% on the road against FBS opponents (4-3 home, 2-12 away).
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads +6.0 at home vs. away over 58 games — inside the ±6.9 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.
Indoors — dome hosts have beaten the number by about a point and a half more than outdoor ones, on a small sample. The visitors travel about 354 miles to get here.
Where next
Conference standings
Going into this game: place in the conference, then conference record.
- South Dakota2nd3-1
- North Dakota3rd3-1