Illinois State beats Murray State 35-14

Team pages: Murray State · Illinois State

Murray State1-814
Illinois State7-235Final
Sat, Oct 31 · Hancock Stadium, Normal, Ill. · Crowd 6,083ESPN+

Illinois State beat Murray State 35-14.

We had Illinois State favored. It won.

Next: Murray State vs Youngstown State, Sat Nov 7 · 2:00 PM ET

Next: Illinois State at North Dakota, Sat Nov 7 · 2:00 PM ET

How it swung

Before kickoff, our ratings gave Illinois State a 99% chance, and the closing betting line (Illinois State was a 29.5-point favorite) put it at 99%.

Favored the whole way: Illinois State never fell below 94%.

Murray State never had better than a 6% chance.

FinalIllinois State 35-14 Murray StateIllinois State wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.
50%75%90%Q1Q2Q3Q4Won35-14Scores
50%75%90%Q1Q2Q3Q4Won35-14Scores
50%10%25%Q1Q2Q3Q4Lowest 0%Lost14-35Scores
50%10%25%Q1Q2Q3Q4Lowest 0%Lost14-35Scores

No single play moved the chance by 20 points.

No single play moved the chance by 20 points.

Illinois State’s chance to win after every play.
How to read this chartStarts from the pregame line (Illinois State -29.5), at 97% for Illinois State (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores.

Every drive

Illinois State scored on 5 of its 14 drives; Murray State on 2 of its 14.

Illinois State’s drives are teal, Murray State’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.

own goalgoal lineQ1Murray State: Punt, from 75 yards out to 40PuntIllinois State: Touchdown, from 89 yards out to 0TouchdownMurray State: Punt, from 75 yards out to 60PuntIllinois State: Punt, from 97 yards out to 93PuntMurray State: Missed field goal, from 50 yards out to 11Missed FGIllinois State: Turned over on downs, from 80 yards out to 38DownsQ2Murray State: Touchdown, from 62 yards out to 0TouchdownIllinois State: Punt, from 75 yards out to 38PuntMurray State: Punt, from 88 yards out to 80PuntIllinois State: Touchdown, from 55 yards out to 0TouchdownMurray State: Punt, from 75 yards out to 68PuntIllinois State: Interception, from 73 yards out to 64InterceptionMurray State: End of half, from 55 yards out to 55End of halfQ3Illinois State: Punt, from 89 yards out to 83PuntMurray State: Punt, from 83 yards out to 76PuntIllinois State: Touchdown, from 50 yards out to 0TouchdownMurray State: Touchdown, from 76 yards out to 0TouchdownIllinois State: Missed field goal, from 65 yards out to 23Missed FGMurray State: Punt, from 77 yards out to 83PuntIllinois State: Punt, from 61 yards out to 38PuntMurray State: Punt, from 96 yards out to 92PuntQ4Illinois State: Touchdown, from 34 yards out to 0TouchdownMurray State: Interception, from 75 yards out to 65InterceptionIllinois State: Touchdown, from 61 yards out to 0TouchdownMurray State: Punt, from 75 yards out to 75PuntIllinois State: Punt, from 71 yards out to 63PuntMurray State: Interception, from 75 yards out to 14InterceptionIllinois State: End of game, from 72 yards out to 35End of game

Box score

Illinois State 35, Murray State 14

Murray State covered +29.5 by 8.5. The total, 49, stayed under 54.5.

Murray State leaders

  • Passing Collin Shannon 14 of 27, 169 yds, 2 INT
  • Rushing Jawaun Northington 7 for 74 yds, 1 TD; Tyrell Campbell 8 for 17 yds
  • Receiving Jaxon Potter 7 for 131 yds; Trey Firestone 8 for 60 yds, 1 TD

Illinois State leaders

  • Passing Beckham Pellant 13 of 27, 248 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT
  • Rushing Victor Dawson 22 for 99 yds, 2 TD; Seth Glatz 17 for 67 yds, 1 TD
  • Receiving Ethan Loss 2 for 117 yds, 1 TD; Dylan Lord 5 for 80 yds, 1 TD

Before kickoff

Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.

Recent games

Last three games

Murray State · 1-7

Rated 254th in our preseason ratings, 260th now.

Three straight losses, each by 20 or more.

L 9-42 @ South Dakota State No. 86 of 668 teams

lost by 33 as a 42.5-point underdog

Murray State lost 9-42 at South Dakota State. Chance to win started at 1%, low under 1%, high 1%.

L 20-48 vs South Dakota No. 92 of 668 teams

lost by 28 as a 28.5-point underdog

Murray State lost 20-48 vs South Dakota. Chance to win started at 5%, low under 1%, high 12%.

L 28-55 @ North Dakota No. 110 of 668 teams

lost by 27 as a 37.5-point underdog

Murray State lost 28-55 at North Dakota. Chance to win started at 1%, low under 1%, high 27%.

L 6-46 vs Southern Illinois No. 156 of 668 teams

lost by 40 as a 17.5-point underdog

Murray State lost 6-46 vs Southern Illinois. Chance to win started at 17%, low under 1%, high 29%.

L 0-59 @ Oklahoma StateTop 25 No. 192 of 668 teams

lost by 59 as a 56.5-point underdog

Murray State lost 0-59 at Oklahoma State. Never had a real chance.

W 27-18 vs Valparaiso No. 254 of 668 teams

won by 9 as a 14-point favorite

Murray State won 27-18 vs Valparaiso. Chance to win started at 89%, low 79%, high better than 99%.

L 14-38 @ Middle Tennessee No. 136 of 668 teams

lost by 24 as a 22.5-point underdog

Murray State lost 14-38 at Middle Tennessee. Chance to win started at 5%, low under 1%, high 7%.

L 14-28 vs Eastern Illinois No. 200 of 668 teams

lost by 14 as a 4.5-point favorite

Murray State lost 14-28 vs Eastern Illinois. Chance to win started at 67%, low under 1%, high 80%.

Last three games

Illinois State · 6-2

Rated 126th in our preseason ratings, 117th now.

2-1 in its last three — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.

W 17-10 vs Indiana State No. 211 of 668 teams

won by 7 as a 22.5-point favorite

Illinois State won 17-10 vs Indiana State. Chance to win started at 96%, low 81%, high better than 99%.

W 35-14 @ Southern Illinois No. 183 of 668 teams

won by 21 as a 7-point favorite

Illinois State won 35-14 at Southern Illinois. Chance to win started at 62%, low 52%, high better than 99%.

L 14-31 vs South Dakota State No. 92 of 668 teams

lost by 17 as a 2.5-point underdog

Illinois State lost 14-31 vs South Dakota State. Chance to win started at 50%, low under 1%, high 62%.

L 21-28 @ Northern Iowa No. 169 of 668 teams

lost by 7 as a 19.5-point favorite

Illinois State lost 21-28 at Northern Iowa. Chance to win started at 87%, low under 1%, high 87%.

W 49-13 vs Eastern Illinois No. 241 of 668 teams

won by 36 as a 29.5-point favorite

Illinois State won 49-13 vs Eastern Illinois. Chance to win started at 97%, low 97%, high better than 99%.

W 28-24 @ Northern Illinois No. 103 of 668 teams

won by 4 as a 2.5-point favorite

Illinois State won 28-24 at Northern Illinois. Chance to win started at 48%, low 23%, high 95%.

W 41-10 @ Western Illinois No. 201 of 668 teams

won by 31 as a 20.5-point favorite

Illinois State won 41-10 at Western Illinois. Chance to win started at 88%, low 87%, high better than 99%.

W 76-0 vs St. Francis (IL)

Week by week

Illinois State

Wk 3: W 49-13 vs Eastern Illinois▲36E. Illin…Wk 4: L 21-28 at Northern Iowa▼7N. IowaWk 5: L 14-31 vs South Dakota State▼17S. Dakot…Wk 7: W 35-14 at Southern Illinois▲21S. Illin…Wk 8: W 17-10 vs Indiana State▲7Indiana…
  • Wk 3Wvs Eastern Illinois49-13
  • Wk 4Lat Northern Iowa21-28
  • Wk 5Lvs South Dakota State14-31
  • Wk 7Wat Southern Illinois35-14
  • Wk 8Wvs Indiana State17-10

Murray State

Wk 3: L 0-59 at Oklahoma State▼59Oklahoma…Wk 4: L 6-46 vs Southern Illinois▼40S. Illin…Wk 5: L 28-55 at North Dakota▼27N. DakotaWk 7: L 20-48 vs South Dakota▼28S. DakotaWk 8: L 9-42 at South Dakota State▼33S. Dakot…
  • Wk 3Lat Oklahoma State0-59
  • Wk 4Lvs Southern Illinois6-46
  • Wk 5Lat North Dakota28-55
  • Wk 7Lvs South Dakota20-48
  • Wk 8Lat South Dakota State9-42

Power rating by week

Illinois State is rated 12.9 points ahead as of week 8. Our power rating by week; higher is better.

-1-9-18Wk 0Wk 4Wk 8Illinois StateMurray State

The series

Illinois State leads the series 7-0

7 meetings since 2005 · Illinois State has won the last 7

Illinois State wonMurray State won2005: Illinois State by 422006: Illinois State by 212007: Illinois State by 262008: Illinois State by 192023: Illinois State by 372024: Illinois State by 82025: Illinois State by 1420052025
  • 2025Illinois State 46-32
  • 2024Illinois State 40-32
  • 2023Illinois State 44-7
  • 2008Illinois State 42-23
  • 2007Illinois State 43-17

Line, fans and home field

The betting line, and the fans

Our model and the betting line agree on Illinois State’s chances here.

50-50Model 99% · Line 99%Murray StateIllinois State

Illinois State favored by 29.5 · Total 54.5

How games like this usually go

Illinois State by 29.5, and it went to form

50%90%Q1Q2Q3Q450%90%Q1Q2Q3Q4

Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game

The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 430 games since 2025 with a favorite of 21.5 points or more.

The market

The total fell 1 point.

opened 55.5now 54.5

Total: 55.5 → 54.5

Home field

Illinois State is worth −4.4 points (±6.6) more at home than on the road since 2018 — bottom tenth of FBS, 0th percentile.

14% at home, 31% on the road against FBS opponents (1-6 home, 4-9 away).

Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads -6.4 at home vs. away over 56 games — inside the ±7.9 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.

The visitors travel about 271 miles to get here.

Where next

Conference standings

Going into this game: place in the conference, then conference record.