Illinois State routs Western Illinois 41-10
Team pages: Illinois State · Western Illinois
Illinois State routed Western Illinois 41-10. Share this game
We had Illinois State favored. It won.
How it swung
Before kickoff, our ratings gave Illinois State a 52% chance, and the closing betting line (Illinois State was a 20.5-point favorite) put it at 95%.
Illinois State 41-10 Western Illinois
Illinois State wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.Western Illinois 10-41 Illinois StateWestern Illinois lostMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.No single play moved the chance by 20 points.
No single play moved the chance by 20 points.
How to read this chart
Starts from the pregame line (Illinois State -20.5), at 88% for Illinois State (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores.Every drive
Illinois State scored on 7 of its 11 drives; Western Illinois on 2 of its 11.
Illinois State’s drives are teal, Western Illinois’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.
Box score
Illinois State 41, Western Illinois 10
Illinois State covered −20.5 by 10.5. The total, 51, stayed under 58.5.
Illinois State leaders
- Passing Beckham Pellant 8 of 22, 132 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
- Rushing Chase Kwiatkowski 4 for 76 yds; Victor Dawson 20 for 73 yds, 2 TD
- Receiving Luke Mailander 3 for 72 yds; Dylan Lord 5 for 72 yds
Western Illinois leaders
- Passing Cason Carswell 9 of 18, 140 yds
- Rushing Josh Robinson 5 for 22 yds; Kennedy McGill 12 for 18 yds
- Receiving Christian Anaya 4 for 78 yds; Jacob Kania 4 for 54 yds
Before kickoff
Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.
Recent games
Last three games · 2025 season
Illinois State · 12-5
Rated 126th in our preseason ratings, 126th now.
2-1 in its last three, including a 16-point win over Villanova as a 1.5-point underdog.
L 34-35 @ Montana State #40 of 667
lost by 1 as a 10.5-point underdog
W 30-14 @ Villanova #86 of 667
won by 16 as a 1.5-point underdog
W 42-31 @ UC Davis #106 of 667
won by 11 as a 3-point underdog
W 29-28 @ North Dakota State #53 of 667
W 21-3 @ SE Louisiana #121 of 667
won by 18 as a 2.5-point underdog
L 7-37 vs Southern Illinois #116 of 667
lost by 30 as a 4.5-point favorite
W 35-21 @ South Dakota State #135 of 667
won by 14 as a 3.5-point underdog
W 52-20 @ Indiana State #229 of 667
won by 32 as a 10.5-point favorite
W 31-16 vs Northern Iowa #228 of 667
won by 15 as a 12.5-point favorite
W 21-13 @ South Dakota #147 of 667
won by 8 as a 3.5-point underdog
L 35-40 vs Youngstown State #159 of 667
lost by 5 as a 2-point favorite
W 46-32 @ Murray State #264 of 667
won by 14 as a 23.5-point favorite
L 16-33 vs North Dakota State #93 of 667
W 38-36 vs North Alabama #206 of 667
won by 2 as a 17-point favorite
W 42-30 @ Eastern Illinois #230 of 667
won by 12 as a 20.5-point favorite
W 41-13 vs Morehead State #243 of 667
won by 28 as a 31.5-point favorite
L 3-35 @ OklahomaTop 25 #18 of 667
lost by 32 as a 38.5-point underdog
Last three games · 2025 season
Western Illinois · 4-8
Rated 228th in our preseason ratings, 228th now.
2-1 in its last three, capped by a 5-point win over Gardner-Webb as a 13.5-point underdog.
W 29-24 @ Gardner-Webb #179 of 667
won by 5 as a 13.5-point underdog
L 17-22 vs Southeast Missouri State #200 of 667
lost by 5 as an 8-point underdog
W 24-21 vs Lindenwood #207 of 667
won by 3 as a 7.5-point underdog
W 17-16 @ Tennessee State #226 of 667
won by 1 as a 3-point underdog
L 24-29 vs Charleston Southern #222 of 667
lost by 5 as a 2-point underdog
L 31-32 @ UT Martin #221 of 667
lost by 1 as a 14.5-point underdog
L 20-66 @ Tennessee Tech #99 of 667
lost by 46 as a 35.5-point underdog
L 23-31 vs Eastern Illinois #217 of 667
lost by 8 as a 2.5-point favorite
L 31-52 @ Eastern Washington #174 of 667
lost by 21 as a 13-point underdog
W 51-30 vs Valparaiso #263 of 667
won by 21 as a 17-point favorite
L 7-42 @ Northwestern #69 of 667
lost by 35 as a 30.5-point underdog
L 3-52 @ IllinoisTop 25 #34 of 667
lost by 49 as a 48.5-point underdog
Week by week
Western Illinois
- Wk 1Wvs Northwestern (IA)65-14
Illinois State
- Wk 1Wvs St. Francis (IL)76-0
The series
Illinois State leads the series 19-14
33 meetings since 1975 · Illinois State has won the last 3
- 2024Illinois State 51-34
- 2023Illinois State 34-18
- 2022Illinois State 20-13
- 2021Western Illinois 38-31
- 2019Illinois State 28-14
Line, fans and home field
The betting line, and the fans
Our model and the betting line don’t fully agree on Western Illinois’s chances here.
Illinois State favored by 20.5 · Total 58.5
How games like this usually go
Illinois State by 20.5, and it went to form
Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game
The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 251 games since 2025 with a favorite of 14.5 to 21.5 points.
The market
The spread moved 3 points toward Western Illinois.
The total fell 1 point.
Spread: +23.5 → +20.5 · Total: 59.5 → 58.5
The books’ cut: 5.3%, the margin built into the odds
Home field
Western Illinois is worth +3.1 points (±8.7) more at home than on the road since 2018 — bottom third of FBS, 30th percentile.
0% at home, 7% on the road against FBS opponents (0-4 home, 1-13 away).
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads -2.5 at home vs. away over 48 games — inside the ±9.8 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.
Night kickoff — historically worth about half a point more to the home side against the number, and not much more than that. The visitors travel about 89 miles to get here.