The rest of the season
Three real tests left: Gardner-Webb 7%, Southeast Missouri State 19%, Eastern Illinois 23%
Win out <1% · expect 0.5 of 3 more wins
Tennessee State's chance to win each game left, from our model: Southeast Missouri State 19%, Eastern Illinois 23%, Gardner-Webb 7%Bar height is our model’s chance in each game left. Dashed line: 50%.
LeadersPassing Daylin Lee 1,758 · Rushing Brenton Paul 227 · Receiving Cam Bulluck 682 All player stats
Updated Wed Nov 4 · through week 9
| Wk | Date | Opponent | Result | Record | Conf | Top performers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aug 29 | Jackson State | L 24-26 | 0-1 | 0-0 | Pass Lee 265 · Rush Lee 40 · Rec Guy 148 |
| 1 | Sep 5 | @Georgia | L 3-63 118 | 0-2 | 0-0 | Pass Lee 62 · Rush Pearson 14 · Rec Bulluck 28 |
| 2 | Sep 12 | @Alabama A&M | L 3-30 | 0-3 | 0-0 | Pass Lee 187 · Rush Paul 40 · Rec Bulluck 50 |
| 3 | Sep 19 | @Florida A&M | W 29-26 | 1-3 | 0-0 | Pass Lee 259 · Rush Paul 92 · Rec Bulluck 84 |
| 4 | Bye week | |||||
| 5 | Oct 3 | @Western Illinois | L 21-28 | 1-4 | 0-1 | Pass Lee 245 · Rush Paul 62 · Rec Montgomery 75 |
| 6 | Oct 10 | UT Martin | L 28-42 | 1-5 | 0-2 | Pass Lee 376 · Rush Lee 8 · Rec Bulluck 191 |
| 7 | Oct 17 | Morgan State | W 25-16 | 2-5 | 0-2 | Pass Lee 220 · Rush Lee 63 · Rec Bulluck 105 |
| 8 | Oct 24 | Charleston Southern | L 7-20 | 2-6 | 0-3 | Pass McNair 65 · Rush Treadaway 42 · Rec Bulluck 53 |
| 9 | Oct 31 | @Lindenwood | L 0-27 | 2-7 | 0-4 | Pass Lee 90 · Rush Treadaway 26 · Rec Bulluck 64 |
| 10 | Nov 7 | Southeast Missouri State | 3:30 pm ET19% to win | |||
| 11 | Nov 14 | Eastern Illinois | 3:30 pm ET23% to win | |||
| 12 | Nov 21 | @Gardner-Webb | 1:30 pm ET7% to win | |||
Win chances are our model for Tennessee State, through 9 games. This week's game comes from the playoff simulation, later games from the rating model. They are estimates and move every week.
The small line beside each score is the team's win chance through the game, drawn on one scale for every game. The small number is total plays.
| Date | Opp | Result | Yds | TO | TOP | EPA/play | Success% | Big plays (IsoPPP) | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 31 | @Lindenwood | L 0-27 | — | — | — | −0.381 | 32.7% | 1.05 | |
| Oct 24 | Charleston Southern | L 7-20 | — | — | — | −0.388 | 33.3% | 1.20 | Season-low EPA/play |
| Oct 17 | Morgan State | W 25-16 | — | — | — | +0.223 | 35.3% | 1.62 | Season-high EPA/play |
| Oct 10 | UT Martin | L 28-42 | — | — | — | +0.005 | 33.3% | 1.73 | Most explosive |
| Oct 3 | @Western Illinois | L 21-28 | — | — | — | −0.141 | 33.3% | 1.29 | One-score loss |
| Sep 19 | @Florida A&M | W 29-26 | — | — | — | +0.163 | 39.2% | 1.38 | One-score win |
| Sep 12 | @Alabama A&M | L 3-30 | — | — | — | −0.268 | 35.6% | 1.11 | |
| Sep 5 | @Georgia | L 3-63 | 109 | 0 | 31:33 | −0.098 | 30.5% | 0.91 | Defense's roughest night |
| Aug 29 | Jackson State | L 24-26 | — | — | — | +0.181 | 42.1% | 1.20 | Best success rate |
| Season average (9 games) | 109 | 0.0 | −0.078 | 35.0% | 1.28 | ||||
The games that decide the season
Recent form · last 10 games
2-8 over the last 10, and lost the last two.
Range of outcomes · Tennessee State · 2026
Regular-season wins: chance of each total, from the game chances above
2 wins 58%; 3 wins 35%; 4 wins 6%Bars are the chance of each regular-season win total, from our model's chance in each game left, through 9 games. Paler bars are the outer 10% at each end. The closed row comes from the season-path projection, which also plays out conference title games and the FCS playoff.
More in this tab
What it is like to watch them2026 · 2-7
Measured from 9 games · ranks are among OVC teams the same season
Tennessee State is the Nashville HBCU Tiger program in transition, anchored by the Eddie George legacy of a 9-4 playoff season, and now rebuilding under new coach Reggie Barlow.
Tennessee State is the Nashville HBCU Tiger program in transition, anchored by the Eddie George legacy of a 9-4 playoff season, and now rebuilding under new coach Reggie Barlow.
Range of outcomes · Tennessee State · 2026