Nevada beats San José State 28-13
Team pages: San José State · Nevada
Nevada beat San José State 28-13. Share this game
We had San José State favored. Nevada won.
Next: San José State vs New Mexico, Sat Oct 31 · 4:00 PM ET · San José State underdog by 14.5
Next: Nevada at UCLA, Sat Oct 31 · 4:15 PM ET · Nevada underdog by 22.5
How it swung
Before kickoff, our ratings gave Nevada a 48% chance, and the closing betting line (Nevada was a 6-point favorite) put it at 69%.
Favored the whole way: Nevada never fell below 70%.
San José State never had better than a 30% chance.
Nevada · Q4 8:38Nevada 28-13 San José State
Nevada wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.San José State 13-28 NevadaSan José State lostMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.No single play moved the chance by 20 points.
No single play moved the chance by 20 points.
How to read this chart
Starts from the pregame line (Nevada -6), at 76% for Nevada (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores. Outlined diamonds mark rare plays.Every drive
Nevada scored on 4 of its 15 drives; San José State on 3 of its 14.
Nevada’s drives are teal, San José State’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.
What it cost
San José State’s chance to win the conference fell from 5% to 3%.
Win the conference
Before the game (October 23, 2026) → after this result alone, in our model. Other games that weekend move it too, so the team page may differ.
San José State plays vs New Mexico on Sat Oct 31 with a 3% chance to win the conference.
Box score
Nevada 28, San José State 13
Nevada covered −6 by 9. The total, 41, stayed under 46.5.
| Team totals | San José State | Nevada |
|---|---|---|
| Total yards | 204 | 324 |
| Passing | 12 of 26, 139 yds | 19 of 31, 210 yds |
| Rushing | 30 for 65 yds | 43 for 114 yds |
| First downs | 9 | 19 |
| Third down | 1 of 14 | 9 of 18 |
| Fourth down | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 |
| Turnovers | 0 | 1 |
| Penalties | 8 for 74 yds | 7 for 54 yds |
| Time of possession | 21:42 | 38:18 |
San José State leaders
- Passing Luke Weaver 6 of 10, 91 yds
- Rushing Viliami Teu 10 for 44 yds, 1 TD; Jabari Bates 11 for 30 yds
- Receiving Dominique McKenzie 2 for 60 yds; Carson Clark 5 for 42 yds
Nevada leaders
- Passing Luke Duncan 18 of 29, 178 yds, 2 TD
- Rushing Dominic Kelley 24 for 82 yds, 1 TD; Herschel Turner 8 for 44 yds
- Receiving Marshaun Brown 5 for 52 yds, 1 TD; Gary Givens III 4 for 45 yds
No rain and calm
56° at kickoff · no rain recorded · wind 8 mph from the east-northeast, mostly across the field, gusts to 20
October game-day temperatures at Mackay Stadium
Drag along the chart, or step through the game.
Where this weather comes from
Measured at Reno - Tahoe airport, 5.0 miles away. Wind and rain are airport readings near the stadium, not on the field. Game times come from the play-by-play, good to a minute or two. Source: National Weather Service, through the Iowa Environmental Mesonet. Field direction from OpenStreetMap contributors.Before kickoff
Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.
Recent games
Last three games
San José State · 4-3
Rated 151st in our preseason ratings, 128th now, up 23 spots.
2-1 in its last three, including a 4-point win over Hawai'i as a 2.5-point underdog.
Last three games
Nevada · 2-4
Rated 229th in our preseason ratings, 154th now, up 75 spots.
1-2 in its last three — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.
L 20-27 @ Middle Tennessee No. 124 of 668 teams
lost by 7 as a 3.5-point favorite
Week by week
Nevada
- Wk 2Lvs Montana State7-20
- Wk 3Lat Middle Tennessee20-27
- Wk 4Lvs Air Force33-36
- Wk 6Wat UTEP30-13
- Wk 7Lat North Dakota State17-31
San José State
- Wk 2Wvs Cal Poly30-20
- Wk 3Lvs Fresno State10-26
- Wk 5Wat Hawai'i20-16
- Wk 6Lvs Wyoming13-16
- Wk 7Wat UTEP24-11
Power rating by week
San José State is rated 1.7 points ahead as of week 7. Our power rating by week; higher is better.
Matchups
Biggest mismatch: San José State’s success rate against Nevada, 62 points
Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.
San José State’s success rate against Nevada’s defense
San José State offense, 16th percentile · Nevada defense, 78th
Nevada’s passing EPA against San José State’s defense
Nevada offense, 28th percentile · San José State defense, 56th
San José State’s explosive plays against Nevada’s defense
San José State offense, 26th percentile · Nevada defense, 51st
Season profile, all the rows
Season profile
The series
Nevada leads the series 21-8
29 meetings since 1948 · Nevada won the last meeting
- 2025Nevada 55-10
- 2024San José State 35-31
- 2022San José State 35-28
- 2021Nevada 27-24
- 2020San José State 30-20
Each line is Nevada’s chance to win through that meeting. Nevada is 2-3 in the meetings since 2018 that were still close in the fourth quarter.
Line, fans and home field
The betting line, and the fans
San José State fans are feeling it more than most fanbases this week (74th percentile among FBS fanbases), in line with the numbers.
- Model · 48%
- Line · 69%
- Nevada fans · 69th
- San José State fans · 74th
Nevada favored by 6 · Total 46.5
How games like this usually go
Nevada by 6, and it went to form
Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game
The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 395 games since 2025 with a favorite of 3.5 to 7.5 points.
The market
The spread moved 0.5 points toward Nevada.
The total rose 1 point.
Spread: −5.5 → −6 · Total: 45.5 → 46.5
The books’ cut: 4.3%, the margin built into the odds
Home field
Nevada is worth +4.0 points (±4.1) more at home than on the road since 2018 — middle of FBS, 48th percentile.
48% at home, 33% on the road against FBS opponents (21-23 home, 16-33 away).
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads +1.1 at home vs. away over 100 games — inside the ±6.3 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.
4,615 ft of altitude — real, and smaller than the folklore: high venues run a point or two better against the number, noisily. The visitors travel about 190 miles to get here.
Last meeting in our History pages
- Nevada 27, San José State 24Nov 6, 2021
Our History pages cover 3 of their meetings since 2015.
Where next
Conference standings
Going into this game: place in the conference, then conference record.
- Nevada7th1-2
- San José State5th2-1