CFB Zeitgeist Score
20
Below cohort in the position cohort. Carried by interceptions at the 92nd percentile.
Carson Conklin
Below the discourse floor — the honest stats-only state.
354 PASS YDS · 1 PASS TD · -16 RUSH YDS
Where He Ended Up · Transfer
Transferred to Sacramento State
2025Fresno State
2026Sacramento State
QB · FRESNO STATE · MOUNTAIN WEST
Carson Conklin
- 2
- #17
- 6-1 | 175 lb
- Yorba Linda, CA
Heisman Heat
Awaiting
Not on the live Heisman board this week.
Fan Belief
Awaiting
Player-specific FI not yet ingested. Falls back to team mood below.
Respect Gap
Awaiting
Coming online with player-level FI.
Reality Gap
Awaiting
Coming online with player-level FI.
ACCOLADE PROBABILITY
Heisman
—
TOP QB AWARD
Davey O'Brien
—
CONSENSUS
All-American
—
Player Standing · 17 rungs
Tier 2 · StarterR07 · Impact starter
Impact starter. Producing measurable value above replacement.
Not on team2-deepStarterRecognizedEliteApex
Career Arc
HS
Recruit
★★★
CFB
College
Fresno State
NFL
NFL Draft
—
Identity & Role
The durable bio layer: position, size, hometown, and roster role.
Recruiting Pedigree
How big the prospect was before college, and whether the later career arc beat that expectation.
| Class | Profile | Context |
|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 3-star | 0.8378 | No. 1714 recruit | HighSchool | Sacramento State |
Transfer Arc
Portal movement changes role, context, and perception. This keeps that path in one place.
| Season | Move | Context |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | Fresno State -> Sacramento State | 3-star | 0.8500 | Immediate |
| 2025 | Sacramento State -> Fresno State | 3-star | 0.8500 | Immediate |
Heisman Lens
Where the model places this player relative to the rest of the Heisman field.
Heisman Futures
Not yet listed on major futures markets.
No achievements unlocked yet this season.
Selector Grid · 2025
AP—
FWAA—
AFCA—
WCFF—
SN—
SI—
Selector recognition fills in once the major honors lists (AP, FWAA, AFCA, Walter Camp, Sporting News, SI) are scraped and ingested.
NIL · Recruiting · NFL Draft
Market value, pedigree & pro outcome
Recruit stars
★★★☆☆
to Sacramento State
Composite
0.8378
#1714 national
Today’s Hot-Take
The Hot-Take engine fires when this player’s percentile profile crosses a defensible threshold (top 10% in a cohort, 100+ snap sample). When it’s quiet, the model is honoring its “must be defensible” rule.
Anti-Take
PENDINGThe contrarian read fires when the rules-engine detects a stat that complicates the Hot-Take. Quiet here means the model hasn’t found a defensible counter yet — not that one doesn’t exist.
The Room on Carson Conklin
Fan sentiment · Awaiting signal
The Room reads fan conversation around a player — who’s talking, what they believe, and how that shifts. It publishes once weekly volume rebuilds; for most players that’s in-season, when game-week chatter spikes.
Cohort divergence map
Cohort divergence reads how different fanbases talk about this player. Returns once weekly mentions clear the publish floor.
Rival Radar
How rival fanbases talk about Carson Conklin
No rival-bucket mentions in the current season.
Signature Story
Awaiting candidate metric
He hasn't written his page yet — we'll start filling it in when there are enough snaps to rank against his peers.
Signature Moment
No signature moment on the ledger yet.
Returns once this player puts together a multi-game body of work — single-game flashes alone don't clear the bar.
Season Pace · Projection
Where the passing totals stand
Through 4g
354Pass yards
1Pass TDs
2INT
Per game
88.5Pass yards
0Pass TDs
0INT
Projected (13g)
1,150Pass yards
3Pass TDs
6INT
To hit 3,000-yard season (currently 354): needs 294/game over remaining 9.
To hit 4,000-yard season (currently 354): needs 405.1/game over remaining 9.
To hit 25 passing TDs (currently 1): needs 2.7/game over remaining 9.
To hit 30 passing TDs (currently 1): needs 3.2/game over remaining 9.
To hit 35 passing TDs (currently 1): needs 3.8/game over remaining 9.
What made this player interesting
The fast read on the thing that makes this player more than a generic stat line.
Carson Conklin's story is about how role and output meet each other. For Fresno State, the card already shows enough current-season production to explain why he is on the serious-player board, and the next layer is determining whether the profile is just very good or actually distinctive.
2025 Season · Final
Traditional stats first. Advanced context underneath.
Last season
QB season snapshot
2025 season snapshot | final
2025 season snapshot | finalData: CFBD player stats + local Heisman modelPeer context: same position + same level
Player identity What kind of player is this?
30-second read
What kind of player is this?
Pocket-leaning against FBS QB peers. The quickest read is whether the profile wins on volume, efficiency, explosiveness, or rushing value.
2025 Season · Final
2025 season snapshot | final
Passing Efficiency
CMP
47 55th
ATT
96 59th
CMP%
49.0% 13th
Y/A
3.7 8th
Passing Production
YDS
354 48th
TD
1 44th
INT
2 52nd
Rushing
CAR
15 46th
YDS
-16 8th
YPC
-1.1 11th
TD
0 44th
Game Log · Week-by-week
2025 season · 4 games
| Wk | Opp | CMP/ATT | YDS | TD | INT | YPA | QBR | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 3 | W 56-7vs Southern | 5/6 | 42 | 0 | 0 | 7.0 | 61.5 | |
| Wk 9 | L 0-23vs San Diego State | 20/42 | 182 | 0 | 2 | 4.3 | 18.0 | Season-high 182 yds |
| Wk 10 | W 30-7@ Boise State | 10/21 | 35 | 0 | 0 | 1.7 | 17.0 | |
| Wk 12 | W 24-3vs Wyoming | 12/27 | 95 | 1 | 0 | 3.5 | 17.3 | |
| Total | 47/96 | 354 | 1 | 2 | 4.1 | 28.4 |
Season-by-season tables Career rows + per-season box score
Traditional history
Traditional Stats
Season rows up top, career context at the bottom.
Season context · Team result + system
2025Fresno State9-4HC: Matt Entz · Run-leaning
| Season | Team | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Fresno State | 47 | 96 | 49.0% | 354 | 3.7 | 1 | 2 | 79.2 | -- | -- |
| Career | 1 loaded season | 47 | 96 | 49.0% | 354 | 3.7 | 1 | 2 | 79.2 | -- | -- |
| Season | Team | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Fresno State | 15 | -16 | -1.1 | 0 | -- |
| Career | 1 loaded season | 15 | -16 | -1.1 | 0 | -- |
Advanced layer Usage, value, and context
Advanced metrics second
Advanced Metrics
Usage, value, and opponent-adjusted context.
Opponent-adjusted passing value. Positive numbers mean the quarterback is adding more value through the air than a neutral peer would in the same environment.
How much of the offense runs through the quarterback once passing and rushing responsibility are blended together.
Every percentile is compared against players at the same position and level, so an FBS quarterback is judged against FBS quarterbacks, not the whole sport.
The top tables stick to the stats fans already know from broadcasts and box scores. Advanced context is pushed underneath instead of replacing the basics.
Open full stat explorer
| Group | Metric | Value | Rank | Pct | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Passing | Passing yards | 354 | #198/382 | 48th pct | Volumevs FBS QB |
| Passing | Pass TD | 1 | #228/407 | 44th pct | Scoringvs FBS QB |
| Passing | Completions | 47 | #173/383 | 55th pct | Volumevs FBS QB |
| Passing | Completion % | 49.0% | #334/383 | 13th pct | Efficiencyvs FBS QB |
| Passing | Yards / attempt | 3.7 | #351/382 | 8th pct | Efficiencyvs FBS QB |
| Rushing | Rushing yards | -16 | #375/408 | 8th pct | Volumevs FBS QB |
| Value | Passing WEPA | +0.16 | #165/200 | 18th pct | Opponent-adjusted passing value | 91 weighted playsvs FBS QB |
| Usage | Role share | 29.4% | #183/428 | 57th pct | Share of team offensevs FBS QB |
| Passing | Attempts | 96 | #167/407 | 59th pct | Volumevs FBS QB |
| Passing | Interceptions | 2 | #195/407 | 52nd pct | Turnoversvs FBS QB |
| Rushing | Carries | 15 | #221/408 | 46th pct | Volumevs FBS QB |
| Rushing | Rushing LONG | 6 | #345/391 | 12th pct | Metricvs FBS QB |
| Rushing | Rush TD | 0 | #230/408 | 44th pct | Scoringvs FBS QB |
| Rushing | Yards / carry | -1.1 | #365/407 | 11th pct | Efficiencyvs FBS QB |
| Usage | Pass share | 72.4% | #135/428 | 69th pct | Air-game usagevs FBS QB |
| Usage | 3rd-down usage | 51.2% | #140/428 | 68th pct | Money-down loadvs FBS QB |
| Usage | Passing-down usage | 50.0% | #149/428 | 65th pct | Known-passing sharevs FBS QB |
| Usage | 2nd-down usage | 32.4% | #172/428 | 60th pct | Middle-down loadvs FBS QB |
| Usage | Standard-down usage | 18.1% | #210/428 | 51st pct | Base-situation sharevs FBS QB |
| Usage | 1st-down usage | 17.4% | #210/428 | 51st pct | Early-down loadvs FBS QB |
| Usage | Rush share | 6.0% | #250/428 | 42nd pct | Ground-game usagevs FBS QB |
| Ball Security | Fumbles lost | 0 | #1/258 | 100th pct | Turnoversvs FBS QB |
Player Standing
Universal 17-step ladder. Tier pills below; accolade streams nested.
AWAITING CLASSIFICATION
On-team2-deepStartingRecognizedEliteApex
AWAITING CLASSIFICATION · Rung None of 16
Why he’s here
Standing classification populates when honors, Heisman, and roster signals all align.
What moves him up
What moves him down
Accolade streams
Status—Awaiting tracker
Heisman model tracks the top FBS contenders weekly; this player hasn't entered the watch list yet.
Splits · Per-game
2025 season · 4 games
Home vs Road
| YDS/g | TD/g | YPA | INT/g | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home3g | 106 | 0.3 | 4.9 | 0.7 |
| Road1g | 35.0 | 0.0 | 1.7 | 0.0 |
Win vs Loss
| YDS/g | TD/g | YPA | INT/g | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wins3g | 57.3 | 0.3 | 4.1 | 0.0 |
| Losses1g | 182 | 0.0 | 4.3 | 2.0 |
First half vs Second half
| YDS/g | TD/g | YPA | INT/g | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Weeks 1-71g | 42.0 | 0.0 | 7.0 | 0.0 |
| Weeks 8+3g | 104 | 0.3 | 3.2 | 0.7 |
Pocket and defense-quality (clean vs. pressure) splits are coming soon.
Savant · Box-rate percentiles
Where this profile ranks vs the QB cohort
20Below cohort
Elite: interceptions (92nd). Strength: fumbles lost (91st). Concern: yards / att (0th).
Percentiles versus same-position peers with enough snaps this season, based on box-score rates.
Advanced Savant · QB · 2025
Percentile Card
Concerns: EPA / dropback.
P4G5All FBS
Advanced Savant
Opponent-adjusted advanced metrics with a cohort filter.
wepa_passing0.16Below (<p25) (n=94)
Peer Comparator · Fingerprint match
Three closest profiles by box-rate percentile
Carson ConklinFresno StateNick VattiatoMiddle Tennessee· 60% simDrake LindseyMinnesota· 56% simLogan FifeNew Mexico State· 51% sim
Interceptions
Fumbles lost
Rush yards
Rush TDs
Completion %
Pass TDs
Pass yards
Yards / att
Closest peers by overall box-score percentile profile at the same position.
Player DNA
The Pocket Passer
Balanced passer who operates within the system. Profile sits near league average across dimensions.
QB
His 2025 production profile sits closest to Alex Padilla’s 2021 season.
Alex Padilla
70%match
#2
Zach Gibson
58%
#3
Rhett Rodriguez
56%
#4
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi
54%
#5
Owen McCown
52%
Matches Alex on
Recruiting rating
TD rate
Differs from Alex on
Class year (lower)
Weight (lower)
Yards / attempt (lower)
Through 2 college seasons, his career arc tracks closest to CJ Montes’s path through Kent State.
CJ Montes
86%match
#2
Nate Glantz
81%
#3
Breylin Smith
79%
#4
D.J. Mack Jr.
78%
#5
AJ Hairston
77%
Matches CJ on
Yards per attempt
Completion %
Recruiting rating
As a sophomore, his production profile tracks closest to Alex Padilla's sophomore season at Iowa (2021).
Alex Padilla
60%match
#2
Rhett Rodriguez
52%
#3
Kirk Francis
43%
#4
Trexler Ivey
38%
#5
Daniel Beale
38%
Matches Alex on
Completion %
EPA / dropback (adj)
Differs from Alex on
Class year (lower)
Weight (lower)
Yards / attempt (lower)
Supporting Cast · Scheme
Staff and system around the player
Head Coach
Matt Entz
Pass share
44.2%
373 pass / 471 run
Plays / game
64.9
13 games
OL sack rate (allowed)
6.4%
282 dropbacks · PBP
Scheme: Run-leaning.
Coaching Lineage · 2025
1 coach2025
Matt Entz
Fresno State
Played his entire career under Matt Entz.
Bio · Recruiting · Transfer · Roster
Off-field context — switch tabs to drill into recruit profile, transfer arc, or roster timeline.
HometownYorba Linda, CA
Height6'1"
Weight175 lb
Class2
PositionQB
Jersey17
No fields populated yet.
No fields populated yet.
Current teamFresno State
ConferenceMountain West
Joined2025
Career arc1 season(s)
Trophy Case · Detail
Every honor on the ledger, broken out by stream and selector.
No formal honors on the ledger yet
All-America, all-conference, player-of-the-week, watch-list, and postseason awards land here when they're earned. The absence is the signal: most players never collect formal honors, and that's its own kind of context.
Honors Timeline
Season-end distinction and week-by-week recognition on one timeline.
| Season | Honor | Scope | Team / Selector | Context |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| No formal honors on the ledger yet. All-America, all-conference, weekly awards, watch lists, and postseason trophies land here when they’re earned. | ||||
Heisman By Year
Modeled rank and official finish by season.
| Season | Team | Role | Latest Model | Forecast | Win | Finalist | Official Finish | Points | Context |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| This player hasn’t appeared on a Heisman ballot tracked by the model. | |||||||||
Roster Timeline
Team, conference, and class by season.
| Season | Team | Conference | Pos | Class | Bio |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Fresno State | Mountain West | QB | 2 | No. 17 | 6-1 | 175 lb | Yorba Linda, CA |