Sacramento State
1-2Mid-American · Alonzo Carter, year 1 (1-2) · Hornet Stadium · 21,195 · 18,523 avg in 2026
LastL 3–49 at Fresno State · Sat Sep 12 · Onterrio Smith Jr. 66 rec yds
Nextvs North Dakota State · Sat Sep 19 · 10:30 pm ET · Hornet Stadium · North Dakota State by 27.5 · first meeting on record · Game preview
Updated Tue Sep 15 · through week 2
All 85 stats
FBS rankings · 2026 season · all stats vs 136 FBS programs
| Player | # | G | Cmp/Att | Pct | Yds | Y/A | TD | INT | Rate | ZPR | QBR | Adj ANY/A | Sack% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| +0.08 EPA/play | 8 | 2 | 33 / 59 | 55.9 | 397 | 6.7 | 4 #36 FBS | 2 | 128.0 | — | 20.1 | 6.6 | 0 | |
Yards by week → | ||||||||||||||
| -0.08 EPA/play | 17 | 1 | 25 / 46 | 54.3 | 222 | 4.8 | 0 | 1 | 90.5 | 41 | 27.7 | — | — | |
Yards by week → | ||||||||||||||
| Player | # | G | Car | Yds | Avg | TD | Long | Stuff% | 10+% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -0.26 EPA/play | 1 | 3 | 24 | 103 | 4.3 | 1 | 18 | — | — | |
Yards by week → | ||||||||||
| Player | # | G | Rec | Yds | Avg | TD | Long | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Possession Receiver · -0.09 EPA/play | 2 | 3 | 14 | 232 #17 FBS | 16.6 | 3 #9 FBS | 63 | |
Yards by week → Possession Receiver· Boom-or-bustReliable target who converts on critical downs. Not flashy; consistently productive. his yards come in chunks — feast or famine 37 of 58 WRs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Yards / reception16.0 74th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions EPA / play (adj)-0.1 bottom 4th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Trait fingerprint Plays like View Matthew Coleman's full player page | ||||||||
| Possession Receiver · +0.37 EPA/play | 12 | 3 | 16 | 172 #45 FBS | 10.8 | 0 | 36 | |
Yards by week → Possession ReceiverReliable target who converts on critical downs. Not flashy; consistently productive. 37 of 58 WRs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Yards / reception10.5 bottom 26th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions TD rate0.0% bottom 10th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Trait fingerprint Plays like View Onterrio Smith Jr.'s full player page | ||||||||
| -0.00 EPA/play | 9 | — | 11 | 96 | 8.7 | 1 | 26 | |
| +0.23 EPA/play | 5 | 3 | 6 | 58 | 9.7 | 0 | 20 | |
Yards by week → | ||||||||
| -0.30 EPA/play | 16 | 3 | 7 | 39 | 5.6 | 0 | 8 | |
Yards by week → | ||||||||
| Player | # | G | Tot | Solo | TFL | Sack | Hur |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 3 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | |
| 55 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 | |
| 58 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Player | # | G | Tot | Solo | Ast | TFL | Sack | PD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | 3 | 13 | 4 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 32 | — | 11 | 6 | 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 1 | 0 | |
| 33 | 3 | 10 | 5 | 5 | 3 #30 FBS | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| 18 | 3 | 9 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| 10 | 2 | 8 | 2 | 6 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 16 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Player | # | G | Tot | PD | INT | TFL | Sack |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Box Safety | 1 | 3 | 23 | 0 | 0 | 0.5 | 0 |
Box SafetyLives near the line of scrimmage as a de facto extra linebacker. 13 of 46 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Tackle volume23 96th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles Plays like View Boogsie Silvera's full player page | |||||||
| Box Safety | 3 | 3 | 17 | 0 | 0 | 1.5 | 0 |
Box SafetyLives near the line of scrimmage as a de facto extra linebacker. 13 of 46 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Tackle volume17 bottom 44th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles Plays like View Amari Wallace's full player page | |||||||
| 2 | 3 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 0.5 | 0 | |
| 23 | 3 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 29 | 3 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 6 | 3 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0.5 | 0 | |
| 13 | 2 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| 25 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Player | # | G | FG M/A | FG% | XP M/A | Pts | Long |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 49 | 3 | 3/4 | 75 | 8/8 | 17 | 40 |
| Player | # | G | No | Yds | Avg | Long | In20 | TB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 37 | 3 | 15 | 615 | 41 | 49 | 7 | 0 |
Net average is unavailable — CFBD's punting feed carries gross yards only, with no return-yardage or touchback deduction.
2026 stat leaders · Sacramento State
through 3 games
2026 stat leaders · Sacramento StateBoogsie Silvera leads Sacramento State with 23 tackles through 3 games.
How They Play · 2026Sacramento State fields a limited pass-first, methodical, ball-control offense behind a strong, gives up the big play defense.
Percentile vs all FBS, based on this season's per-game production. Bar = where this team ranks — right is better.
Sacramento State reads strongest in success rate allowed (top 15%) and red-zone defense (top 15%); the crux lives in explosive plays, where Sacramento State sits at the 5th percentile.
offense · strengths lead
defense · higher bar = harder to play against
hidden math · special situations
Home-field advantage · Sacramento State · 2018–present · FBS opponents
Sacramento State is worth +31.4 points more at home than on the road.
Top tenth of FBS, 100th percentile of 133 programs
100% at home, 18% away against FBS opponents since 2018 (2–0 home, 2–9 away). Interval ±6.3.
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge — per-team modelling was tested and did not survive scrutiny (why) — and the books use about 3. Against the closing line, Sacramento State has beaten the number by −3.2 more at home than away over 54 games — inside the ±7.7 that many games can resolve. Results here cannot tell the flat number apart from the building, and that is the honest reading of nearly every FBS stadium.
Hornet Stadium seats 21,195 and has averaged 72% full (15,231, 12 games reported). Visitors face the 18th-longest trip of 135 FBS venues: a median 647 miles since 2018. Some of what the band above measures is the map, not the crowd. For the home side it is genuinely home ground: 34% of the 2026 roster (55 of 164 located players) grew up inside 100 miles of the stadium.
Edge = half the gap between average home margin and average road margin, FBS opponents only, non-neutral games since 2018; the interval is 95%. Market line: closing spread, seasons with lines on file. Trip length is straight-line miles from the visiting team's campus to the venue, measured across 39 of 41 home games since 2018.
More in this tab
Scheme claims
Standard downs vs. passing downs
Does Sacramento State hold up once the down-and-distance turns against them?
23rd percentile success on standard downs, 14th on passing downs — little dropoff between the two — a schedule-independent identity.
View all FBS teams as a table
| Team | Standard-downs percentile | Passing-downs percentile |
|---|---|---|
| App State | 44th | 90th |
| Arizona | 92nd | 86th |
| Arkansas | 60th | 80th |
| Auburn | 75th | 55th |
| Ball State | 12th | 24th |
| Baylor | 40th | 96th |
| Boise State | 58th | 46th |
| Boston College | 27th | 56th |
| Buffalo | 7th | 14th |
| California | 9th | 25th |
| Central Michigan | 16th | 6th |
| Charlotte | 73rd | 83rd |
| Clemson | 1st | 19th |
| Coastal Carolina | 61st | 52nd |
| Colorado | 35th | 77th |
| Colorado State | 82nd | 91st |
| Delaware | 70th | 31st |
| Duke | 20th | 29th |
| Eastern Michigan | 52nd | 10th |
| Florida Atlantic | 43rd | 87th |
| Florida International | 46th | 43rd |
| Florida State | 28th | 65th |
| Georgia Southern | 24th | 45th |
| Georgia Tech | 58th | 44th |
| Hawai'i | 18th | 41st |
| Iowa State | 4th | 23rd |
| Jacksonville State | 65th | 82nd |
| Kansas | 70th | 35th |
| LSU | 33rd | 98th |
| Liberty | 14th | 59th |
| Louisiana | 19th | 92nd |
| Louisville | 96th | 70th |
| Memphis | 69th | 65th |
| Michigan | 2nd | 62nd |
| Michigan State | 62nd | 29th |
| Middle Tennessee | 87th | 68th |
| Missouri | 36th | 85th |
| Navy | 98th | 59th |
| Nevada | 77th | 52nd |
| New Mexico State | 45th | 75th |
| Norfolk State | 16th | 9th |
| North Dakota State | 86th | 27th |
| North Texas | 49th | 68th |
| Ohio | 38th | 17th |
| Ohio State | 90th | 40th |
| Oklahoma State | 41st | 49th |
| Ole Miss | 94th | 50th |
| Oregon | 35th | 33rd |
| Oregon State | 10th | 38th |
| Pittsburgh | 30th | 76th |
| Purdue | 83rd | 88th |
| Rutgers | 30th | 71st |
| Sacramento State | 23rd | 14th |
| Sam Houston | 78th | 61st |
| San Diego State | 4th | 40th |
| San José State | 54th | 22nd |
| South Alabama | 50th | 73rd |
| South Florida | 91st | 52nd |
| Stanford | 76th | 15th |
| Syracuse | 48th | 64th |
| TCU | 93rd | 8th |
| Tennessee | 65th | 78th |
| Texas | 72nd | 94th |
| Texas A&M | 85th | 72nd |
| Texas Tech | 88th | 48th |
| Troy | 22nd | 59th |
| Tulane | 31st | 2nd |
| Tulsa | 56th | 1st |
| UAB | 65th | 81st |
| UNLV | 51st | 7th |
| USC | 97th | 99th |
| UTSA | 99th | 29th |
| Utah State | 4th | 93rd |
| Vanderbilt | 80th | 12th |
| Wake Forest | 56th | 97th |
| Washington | 81st | 4th |
| Washington State | 8th | 3rd |
| Western Kentucky | 25th | 34th |
| Western Michigan | 39th | 20th |
| Wisconsin | 13th | 18th |
| Wyoming | 65th | 36th |
Pass defense by zone
Pass-depth identity
What this team throws, and gives up, by depth.
On short throws (≤19 air yards), Sacramento State’s passing game completes a completion rate below the FBS mean (63.2% vs 68.3% league-wide, shrunk toward the mean for its 95-play sample) — mid-pack, 4 of 41 qualifying offenses.
We won’t show a deep-ball (20+ air yards) leaderboard here, on either side of the ball: even a full season of charted plays gives most teams well under 30 deep attempts — too thin to tell a real tendency from noise, so we won’t guess. Same refusal for yards-after-catch allowed and where a team’s attempts land by zone: both measured and both came back statistically indistinguishable from season-to-season noise.
Havoc & trenches
Havoc & trenches
Disruption, run-blocking, and down-and-distance efficiency.
Ratings
Comparable teams
Most similar programs · Sacramento State
Most similar programs · Sacramento StateReads like
Matched on how the programs are built — tier, prestige band, kind of fanbase, conference, voice and roster size — not on this season's stats. A calibration, not a prediction.
Conditions
68°F average kickoff temp; 3% of games had measurable precipitation; 6 mph average wind.
Based on 31 home games with weather data.