Idaho beats Southern Utah 31-28
Team pages: Southern Utah · Idaho
Idaho beat Southern Utah 31-28. Share this game
We had Southern Utah favored. Idaho won.
Next: Southern Utah vs Northern Arizona, Sat Oct 31 · 3:00 PM ET
Next: Idaho at Portland State, Sat Oct 31 · 4:00 PM ET
How it swung
The turning point: Wood 19-yd TD pass to Taylor, Idaho goes ahead 10-7 (Q2, 7:27). Idaho went from 47% to 73% to win.
Before kickoff, our ratings gave Idaho a 50% chance, and the closing betting line (Idaho was a 3-point favorite) put it at 60%.
A tight one: Idaho bottomed out at 45% and won.
Southern Utah never had better than a 55% chance.
Idaho 31-28 Southern Utah
Idaho wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.Southern Utah 28-31 IdahoSouthern Utah lostMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.The five plays that swung it
- 1Q2 9:20Chalk 19-yd TD run, Southern Utah goes ahead 7-3Idaho 66% → 46% (−20)
- 2Q2 7:27Wood 19-yd TD pass to Taylor, Idaho goes ahead 10-7Idaho 47% → 73% (+26)
- 3Q3 12:04Burns 76-yd TD run, ties it 18-18Idaho 84% → 62% (−22)
- 4Q4 0:564th and 10Burns 57-yd TD pass to Bails, ties it 28-28Idaho 93% → 67% (−26)
- 5Q4 0:12Forsman 53-yd field goal, Idaho goes ahead 31-28Idaho 78% → 100% (+22)
The five plays that swung it
- 1Q2 9:20Chalk 19-yd TD run, Southern Utah goes ahead 7-3Southern Utah 34% → 54% (+20)
- 2Q2 7:27Wood 19-yd TD pass to Taylor, Idaho goes ahead 10-7Southern Utah 53% → 27% (−26)
- 3Q3 12:04Burns 76-yd TD run, ties it 18-18Southern Utah 16% → 38% (+22)
- 4Q4 0:564th and 10Burns 57-yd TD pass to Bails, ties it 28-28Southern Utah 7% → 33% (+26)
- 5Q4 0:12Forsman 53-yd field goal, Idaho goes ahead 31-28Southern Utah 22% → 0% (−22)
How to read this chart
Starts from the pregame line (Idaho -3), at 71% for Idaho (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores.Every drive
Idaho scored on 6 of its 14 drives; Southern Utah on 5 of its 13.
Idaho’s drives are teal, Southern Utah’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.
From Southern Utah’s side
Southern Utah’s best moment: Burns 57-yd TD pass to Bails, ties it 28-28 (Q4 0:56). It lifted Southern Utah’s win chance by 26 points.
Box score
Idaho 31, Southern Utah 28
The game landed on the closing spread. The total, 59, stayed under 68.5.
Southern Utah leaders
- Passing Will Burns 17 of 31, 205 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
- Rushing Will Burns 18 for 187 yds, 1 TD; Floyd Chalk IV 17 for 58 yds, 1 TD
- Receiving Mark Bails 2 for 69 yds, 1 TD; David Spjut 3 for 60 yds
Idaho leaders
- Passing Joshua Wood 15 of 25, 151 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT
- Rushing Damonte Bias 11 for 89 yds; Joshua Wood 8 for 48 yds
- Receiving Zachary Card 4 for 57 yds; Nolan McWilliams 3 for 29 yds
Before kickoff
Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.
Recent games
Last three games
Southern Utah · 3-4
Rated 144th in our preseason ratings, 156th now.
2-1 in its last three, capped by a 21-point win over UC Davis as a 4.5-point underdog.
W 46-33 @ Utah Tech No. 256 of 668 teams
won by 13 as a 10.5-point favorite
L 24-28 vs Idaho State No. 132 of 668 teams
lost by 4 as a 9.5-point underdog
L 26-28 @ St. Thomas (MN) No. 194 of 668 teams
lost by 2 as a 12.5-point favorite
W 47-42 vs Weber State No. 241 of 668 teams
won by 5 as a 14.5-point favorite
Last three games
Idaho · 2-5
Rated 171st in our preseason ratings, 163rd now.
2-1 in its last three, capped by a 7-point win over Montana as a 16.5-point underdog.
Week by week
Idaho
- Wk 2Lvs Lamar17-23
- Wk 3Lvs Abilene Christian39-41
- Wk 5Wvs Montana State35-34
- Wk 6Lat Weber State27-38
- Wk 7Wat Montana42-35
Southern Utah
- Wk 2Lat Colorado State24-58
- Wk 3Lat St. Thomas (MN)26-28
- Wk 4Lvs Idaho State24-28
- Wk 5Wat Utah Tech46-33
- Wk 7Wvs UC Davis38-17
Power rating by week
Southern Utah is rated 0.3 points ahead as of week 7. Our power rating by week; higher is better.
The series
Idaho leads the series 2-0
2 meetings since 2018 · Idaho has won the last 2
- 2021Idaho 42-24
- 2018Idaho 31-12
Line, fans and home field
The betting line, and the fans
Our model and the betting line don’t fully agree on Idaho’s chances here.
Idaho favored by 3 · Total 68.5
How games like this usually go
Idaho by 3, and it went to form
Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game
The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 286 games since 2025 with a favorite of under 3.5 points.
The market
The spread moved 0.5 points toward Southern Utah.
The total rose 6 points.
Spread: −3.5 → −3 · Total: 62.5 → 68.5
The books’ cut: 5.4%, the margin built into the odds
Home field
Idaho is worth +6.8 points (±13.1) more at home than on the road since 2018 — top tenth of FBS, 91st percentile.
50% at home, 12% on the road against FBS opponents (1-1 home, 2-15 away).
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads -1.6 at home vs. away over 59 games — inside the ±7.6 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.
Indoors — dome hosts have beaten the number by about a point and a half more than outdoor ones, on a small sample. The visitors travel about 657 miles to get here.
Where next
Conference standings
Going into this game: place in the conference, then conference record.
- Idaho9th2-2
- Southern Utah5th3-2