UC Davis routs Stetson 45-7

Team pages: Stetson · UC Davis

Stetson1-37
UC Davis3-145Final
Sat, Sep 19 · Aggie Stadium, Davis, Calif. · Crowd 15,270ESPN+

UC Davis routed Stetson 45-7.

We had UC Davis favored. It won.

Next: Stetson lost to Marist 28-14, Sat Oct 3

Next: UC Davis lost to Montana 62-22, Sat Sep 26

How it swung

Before kickoff, our ratings gave UC Davis a 91% chance, and the closing betting line (UC Davis was a 47.5-point favorite) put it above 99%.

UC Davis led by 14 after the first quarter and by 28 at the half.

Q1Q2Q3Q40+38+38
FinalUC Davis 45-7 StetsonUC Davis wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.
50%75%90%Q1Q2Q3Q4UC DavisWon45-7Scores
50%75%90%Q1Q2Q3Q4UC DavisWon45-7Scores
50%10%25%Q1Q2Q3Q4UC DavisLowest 0%Lost7-45Scores
50%10%25%Q1Q2Q3Q4UC DavisLowest 0%Lost7-45Scores

No single play moved the chance by 20 points.

No single play moved the chance by 20 points.

UC Davis’s chance to win after every play.
How to read this chartStarts from the pregame line (UC Davis -47.5), at 100% for UC Davis (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores.

Every drive

UC Davis scored on 5 of its 10 drives; Stetson on 3 of its 12.

UC Davis’s drives are teal, Stetson’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.

own goalgoal lineQ1Stetson: Punt, from 75 yards out to 71PuntUC Davis: Touchdown, from 75 yards out to 0TouchdownStetson: Fumble, from 84 yards out to 46FumbleUC Davis: Missed field goal, from 54 yards out to 25Missed FGStetson: Punt, from 75 yards out to 70PuntUC Davis: Touchdown, from 57 yards out to 0TouchdownStetson: Turned over on downs, from 75 yards out to 35DownsQ2UC Davis: Turned over on downs, from 65 yards out to 28DownsStetson: Touchdown, from 72 yards out to 0TouchdownStetson: Turned over on downs, from 70 yards out to 1DownsUC Davis: Touchdown, from 99 yards out to 0TouchdownStetson: End of half, from 88 yards out to 89End of halfQ3UC Davis: Fumble, from 72 yards out to 16FumbleStetson: Punt, from 84 yards out to 82PuntUC Davis: Field goal, from 51 yards out to 16Field goalStetson: Touchdown, from 87 yards out to 0TouchdownStetson: Missed field goal, from 75 yards out to 6Missed FGQ4UC Davis: Punt, from 80 yards out to 37PuntUC Davis: Turned over on downs, from 37 yards out to 36DownsStetson: Touchdown, from 64 yards out to 0TouchdownUC Davis: Touchdown, from 35 yards out to 0TouchdownStetson: Uncategorized, from 75 yards out to 70Uncategorized

Never in doubt.

Box score

UC Davis 45, Stetson 7

Stetson covered +47.5 by 9.5. The total, 52, stayed under 65.5.

Stetson leaders

  • Passing Tom von Grote 22 of 39, 219 yds, 1 TD
  • Rushing Tom von Grote 7 for 42 yds; Troy Flowers 11 for 22 yds
  • Receiving Anthony Benzija 6 for 70 yds, 1 TD; Landon Farco 4 for 46 yds

UC Davis leaders

  • Passing Treynor Cleeland 26 of 37, 331 yds, 2 TD
  • Rushing Jordan Fisher 14 for 65 yds, 1 TD; Matteo Perez 4 for 28 yds
  • Receiving Samuel Gbatu Jr. 10 for 172 yds, 1 TD; Xzavior Guess 2 for 40 yds

Before kickoff

Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.

Recent games

Last three games

Stetson · 1-2

Rated 264th in our preseason ratings, 259th now.

1-2 in its last three — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.

L 18-43 @ Bethune-Cookman #189 of 668

lost by 25 as a 14.5-point underdog

Stetson lost 18-43 at Bethune-Cookman. Chance to win started at 12%, low under 1%, high 17%.

W 45-10 vs Webber International

L 7-70 @ South Dakota State #104 of 668

lost by 63 as a 50.5-point underdog

Stetson lost 7-70 at South Dakota State. Never had a real chance.

Last three games

UC Davis · 2-1

Rated 116th in our preseason ratings, 102nd now, up 14 spots.

2-1 in its last three — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.

L 10-56 @ SMUTop 25 #12 of 668

lost by 46 as a 32.5-point underdog

UC Davis lost 10-56 at SMU. Chance to win started at 2%, low under 1%, high 3%.

W 49-17 @ San Diego #151 of 668

won by 32 as a 14.5-point favorite

UC Davis won 49-17 at San Diego. Chance to win started at 81%, low 49%, high better than 99%.

W 31-24 @ Portland State #242 of 668

won by 7 as a 25.5-point favorite

Week by week

UC Davis

Wk 1: W 31-24 at Portland State▲7Portland StateWk 1: W 49-17 at San Diego▲32San DiegoWk 2: L 10-56 at SMU▼46SMU
  • Wk 1Wat Portland State31-24
  • Wk 1Wat San Diego49-17
  • Wk 2Lat SMU10-56

Stetson

Wk 1: L 7-70 at South Dakota State▼63South Dakota St.Wk 1: W 45-10 vs Webber International▲35Webber Internat…Wk 2: L 18-43 at Bethune-Cookman▼25Bethune-Cookman
  • Wk 1Lat South Dakota State7-70
  • Wk 1Wvs Webber International45-10
  • Wk 2Lat Bethune-Cookman18-43

Power rating by week

UC Davis is rated 9.5 points ahead as of week 2. Our power rating by week; higher is better.

-1-8-15Wk 0Wk 1Wk 2UC DavisStetson

Line, fans and home field

The betting line, and the fans

Our model and the betting line don’t fully agree on UC Davis’s chances here.

50-50Model · 91%Line · 100%StetsonUC Davis

UC Davis favored by 47.5 · Total 65.5

How games like this usually go

UC Davis by 47.5, and it went to form

50%90%Q1Q2Q3Q450%90%Q1Q2Q3Q4

Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game

The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 411 games since 2025 with a favorite of 21.5 points or more.

The market

The total rose 2 points.

opened 63.5now 65.5

Total: 63.5 → 65.5

Home field

UC Davis is worth +8.3 points (±9.1) more at home than on the road since 2018 — top tenth of FBS, 98th percentile.

67% at home, 23% on the road against FBS opponents (2-1 home, 3-10 away).

Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads +4.6 at home vs. away over 53 games — inside the ±8.4 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.

Night kickoff — historically worth about half a point more to the home side against the number, and not much more than that. The visitors travel about 2,394 miles to get here.

Where next