Stetson at UC Davis
Stetson (1‑2) at UC Davis (2‑1) — no line posted yet, but the model favors UC Davis (92%).
How they got here
Last three games
Stetson · 1-2
Picked #264 in the preseason · now #250 — better than expected.
1-2 in its last three — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.
L 18–43 @ Bethune-Cookman #189 of 669
lost by 25 as a 14.5-point underdog
W 45–10 vs Webber International
L 7–70 @ South Dakota State #104 of 669
lost by 63 as a 50.5-point underdog
Last three games
UC Davis · 2-1
Picked #116 in the preseason · now #102 — better than expected.
2-1 in its last three — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.
L 10–56 @ SMUTop 25 #12 of 669
lost by 46 as a 32.5-point underdog
W 49–17 @ San Diego #150 of 669
won by 32 as a 14.5-point favorite
W 31–24 @ Portland State #242 of 669
won by 7 as a 25.5-point favorite
What’s at stake
Stetson
- Stetson needs 5 more wins in the final 8 to reach bowl eligibility.
- Stetson is still shaking off a 25-point loss.
UC Davis
- UC Davis needs 5 more wins in the final 8 to reach bowl eligibility.
- UC Davis is still shaking off a 46-point loss.
Face-off
What each fanbase carries into this one.
Stetson
The chipFans here believe stetson has no chip. The program is still establishing itself. The chip would come much later, after winning seasons accumulate and a rivalry reignites.
What this game touches
The 56-year dormancy (1956–2013). Stetson dropped football in 1956 and didn't return until 2013 — a 57-year gap that meant the program lost its traditions, its rivals, its rooted fan identity. When the program revived, it was building from scratch at FCS, not from a sleeping position.
UC Davis
The chipUC Davis fans believe the Big Sky is a legitimate FCS home — not a stepping stone — and that the program's Sochor legacy and recent playoff runs prove the FCS is where this program thrives. They say Sacramento State's departure is about market ambition, not UC Davis's inadequacy. They won the field. That's enough.
Conditions
96°F · 7 mph wind
UC Davis is worth +8.3 points (±9.1) more at home than on the road since 2018 — top tenth of FBS, 98th percentile.
67% at home, 23% on the road against FBS opponents (2–1 home, 3–10 away).
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads +7.5 at home vs. away over 48 games — inside the ±7.7 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.
Night kickoff — historically worth about half a point more to the home side against the number, and not much more than that. The visitors travel about 2,394 miles to get here.
Recent games
UC Davis
- Wk 1Wat Portland State31-24
- Wk 1Wat San Diego49-17
- Wk 2Lat SMU10-56
Stetson
- Wk 1Lat South Dakota State7-70
- Wk 1Wvs Webber International45-10
- Wk 2Lat Bethune-Cookman18-43