Northern Arizona at Cal Poly
Cal Poly (4‑6) hosts Northern Arizona (7‑2). Too early for a market line, but the model likes Northern Arizona (87%).
How they got here
Last three games
Northern Arizona · 7-2
Rated 152nd in our preseason ratings, 134th now, up 18 spots.
Three straight wins, including a 5-point win over Montana as a 9.5-point underdog.
W 34-27 @ Southern Utah No. 160 of 668 teams
won by 7 as a 3-point favorite
W 38-25 vs Portland State No. 240 of 668 teams
won by 13 as a 17.5-point favorite
W 38-31 @ Idaho State No. 135 of 668 teams
won by 7 as a 7.5-point underdog
W 35-23 @ Utah Tech No. 239 of 668 teams
won by 12 as a 16.5-point favorite
W 38-28 vs Incarnate Word No. 144 of 668 teams
won by 10 as a 4.5-point favorite
Last three games
Cal Poly · 4-6
Rated 199th in our preseason ratings, 233rd now.
Three straight losses.
W 24-17 vs Central Washington No. 268 of 668 teams
What’s at stake
Northern Arizona
- Northern Arizona controls first place in Big Sky with 2 games left.
- Northern Arizona is 7-2 and plays at Cal Poly next.
Cal Poly
- Cal Poly is still shaking off a 54-point loss.
The series
Northern Arizona leads the series 9-1
10 meetings since 1935 · Northern Arizona has won the last 4
- 2025Northern Arizona 35-27
- 2024Northern Arizona 31-14
- 2022Northern Arizona 31-29
- 2021Northern Arizona 45-21
- 2018Cal Poly 38-28
Home field
Cal Poly is worth +6.0 points (±10.1) more at home than on the road since 2018 — top third of FBS, 82nd percentile.
33% at home, 17% on the road against FBS opponents (1-2 home, 2-10 away).
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads -0.0 at home vs. away over 48 games — inside the ±8.5 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.
The visitors travel about 508 miles to get here.
Week by week
Cal Poly
- Wk 5Lvs Weber State34-42
- Wk 6Wat Idaho State25-24
- Wk 7Lat Northern Colorado18-28
- Wk 8Lvs Utah Tech26-43
- Wk 9Lat Montana State7-61
Northern Arizona
- Wk 4Lat Montana State14-28
- Wk 5Wat Idaho State38-31
- Wk 6Wvs Montana49-44
- Wk 7Wvs Portland State38-25
- Wk 9Wat Southern Utah34-27
Power rating by week
Northern Arizona is rated 7.3 points ahead as of week 10. Our power rating by week; higher is better.
Conference standings
Going into this game: place in the conference, then conference record.
- Cal Poly9th3-4
- Northern Arizona1st6-1