Player stats
No player stats logged for this program yet — stats appear once the season is underway.
How scary each game got
Montana State lost at Idaho after being 96% to win; the closest win was against Central Connecticut, down to 10%
Tap a game for its score and win chances.
Each bar runs from the lowest to the highest chance our model gave Montana State during that game; the thick mark is where it started. Numbers are the game week.
Home-field advantage · 2018–present · FBS opponents
Montana State is worth +10.3 points more at home than on the road.
Top tenth of FBS, 100th percentile of 133 programs
33% at home, 44% away against FBS opponents since 2018 (1-2 home, 4-5 away). Interval ±15.6.
The stadium and how the home edge is measured
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge. The books use about 3. Per-team versions were tested and did not hold up (why). Against the closing line, Montana State has beaten the number by +4.9 more at home than away over 62 games. That is inside the ±8.1 that many games can resolve, so the results cannot tell this stadium from the flat number. That is the honest reading of nearly every FBS stadium.
Bobcat Stadium seats 17,000 and has averaged 126% full (21,504, 24 games reported). Visitors cover a median 725 miles to get here (2018-present).
Edge = half the gap between average home margin and average road margin, FBS opponents only, non-neutral games since 2018; the interval is 95%. Market line: closing spread, seasons with lines on file. Trip length is straight-line miles from the visiting team's campus to the venue, measured across all 62 home games since 2018. No national trip rank shown: the ranked field is FBS venues only and leaves out the service academies and venues with too few measured games.
More in this tab
Scheme claims
How much of Montana State’s number is the schedule?
Raw EPA/play through week 10 is 0.37; adjusted for opponent strength, it's 0.14. The widest gap came in week 2: 0.44 raw vs. 0.08 adjusted.
Havoc & trenches
Disruption, run-blocking, and down-and-distance efficiency.
Comparable teams
Most similar programs · Montana State
Most similar programs · Montana StateReads like
Matched on how the programs are built — tier, prestige band, kind of fanbase, conference, voice and roster size — not on this season's stats. A calibration, not a prediction.