Toledo

Home-field advantage · Toledo · 2018–present · FBS opponents

Toledo is worth +6.4 points more at home than on the road.

Top third of FBS, 85th percentile of 133 programs

74% at home, 47% away against FBS opponents since 2018 (29–10 home, 21–24 away). Interval ±4.0.

Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge — per-team modelling was tested and did not survive scrutiny (why) — and the books use about 3. Against the closing line, Toledo has beaten the number by 10.1 points more at home than away over 74 games — outside the ±6.6 that many games can resolve. This is one of the few buildings where the results say something the flat number does not.

Glass Bowl seats 26,038 and has averaged 78% full (20,404, 25 games reported). Visitors get here easily: a median 159 miles trip since 2018, the 2nd-shortest of 135 FBS venues. Whatever the band above is picking up, it isn't the flight. For the home side it is genuinely home ground: 26% of the 2026 roster (32 of 122 located players) grew up inside 100 miles of the stadium.

Edge = half the gap between average home margin and average road margin, FBS opponents only, non-neutral games since 2018; the interval is 95%. Market line: closing spread, seasons with lines on file. Trip length is straight-line miles from the visiting team's campus to the venue, measured across all 47 home games since 2018.