North Dakota State beats UTEP 31-7
Team pages: UTEP · North Dakota State
North Dakota State beat UTEP 31-7. Share this game
We had North Dakota State favored. It won.
Next: UTEP vs Hawai'i, Sat Nov 7 · 9:30 PM ET · UTEP underdog by 9.5
Next: North Dakota State at Hawai'i, Sat Nov 14 · 11:59 PM ET
How it swung
Before kickoff, our ratings gave North Dakota State a 97% chance, and the closing betting line (North Dakota State was a 23.5-point favorite) put it at 97%.
Favored the whole way: North Dakota State never fell below 80%.
UTEP never had better than a 20% chance.
North Dakota State · Q2 3:47Fumble return TDNorth Dakota State · Q4 1:06North Dakota State 31-7 UTEP
North Dakota State wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.UTEP 7-31 North Dakota StateUTEP lostMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.No single play moved the chance by 20 points.
No single play moved the chance by 20 points.
How to read this chart
Starts from the pregame line (North Dakota State -23.5), at 96% for North Dakota State (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores. Outlined diamonds mark rare plays.Every drive
North Dakota State scored on 4 of its 10 drives; UTEP on 1 of its 12.
North Dakota State’s drives are teal, UTEP’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.
What it cost
North Dakota State’s chance to win the conference rose from 25% to 28%.
Win the conference
Before the game (October 30, 2026) → after this result alone, in our model. Other games that weekend move it too, so the team page may differ.
North Dakota State plays at Hawai'i on Sat Nov 14 with a 28% chance to win the conference.
Box score
North Dakota State 31, UTEP 7
North Dakota State covered −23.5 by 0.5. The total, 38, stayed under 44.5.
| Team totals | UTEP | North Dakota State |
|---|---|---|
| Total yards | 238 | 381 |
| Passing | 15 of 22, 91 yds | 22 of 32, 240 yds |
| Rushing | 29 for 147 yds | 37 for 141 yds |
| First downs | 9 | 19 |
| Third down | 5 of 13 | 5 of 14 |
| Fourth down | 0 of 0 | 3 of 3 |
| Turnovers | 3 | 1 |
| Penalties | 7 for 60 yds | 4 for 40 yds |
| Time of possession | 23:16 | 36:44 |
UTEP leaders
- Passing EJ Colson 11 of 16, 59 yds, 2 INT
- Rushing Raymond Moore III 3 for 67 yds, 1 TD; Jaden Smith 1 for 21 yds
- Receiving Jaden Smith 6 for 41 yds; Kam Thomas 3 for 13 yds
North Dakota State leaders
- Passing Nathan Hayes 22 of 32, 240 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
- Rushing DJ Scott 13 for 50 yds, 1 TD; Barry Kpeenu 11 for 41 yds
- Receiving Jackson Williams 10 for 111 yds; Reis Kessel 6 for 85 yds, 1 TD
Before kickoff
Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.
Recent games
Last three games
UTEP · 1-6
Rated 212th in our preseason ratings, 238th now.
Three straight losses.
L 0-51 @ OklahomaTop 25 No. 19 of 668 teams
lost by 51 as a 40.5-point underdog
Last three games
North Dakota State · 6-2
Rated 89th in our preseason ratings, 62nd now, up 27 spots.
1-2 in its last three — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.
Week by week
North Dakota State
- Wk 3Wat Sacramento State31-10
- Wk 5Wvs Wyoming28-0
- Wk 6Lat UNLV7-13
- Wk 7Wvs Nevada31-17
- Wk 8Lat New Mexico16-21
UTEP
- Wk 3Lat Michigan17-52
- Wk 4Lvs Oregon State7-33
- Wk 5Lat New Mexico7-61
- Wk 6Lvs Nevada13-30
- Wk 7Lvs San José State11-24
Power rating by week
North Dakota State is rated 14.0 points ahead as of week 8. Our power rating by week; higher is better.
Matchups
Biggest mismatch: UTEP’s passing EPA against North Dakota State, 97 points
Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.
UTEP’s EPA/play against North Dakota State’s defense
UTEP offense, 2nd percentile · North Dakota State defense, 98th
UTEP’s passing EPA against North Dakota State’s defense
UTEP offense, 1st percentile · North Dakota State defense, 98th
North Dakota State’s explosive plays against UTEP’s defense
North Dakota State offense, 82nd percentile · UTEP defense, 45th
Season profile, all the rows
Season profile
Line, fans and home field
The betting line, and the fans
North Dakota State fans are feeling it about like the typical fanbase this week (58th percentile among FBS fanbases), in line with the numbers.
North Dakota State favored by 23.5 · Total 44.5
How games like this usually go
North Dakota State by 23.5, and it went to form
Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game
The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 430 games since 2025 with a favorite of 21.5 points or more.
The market
The spread moved 4 points toward UTEP.
The total fell 5 points.
Spread: −27.5 → −23.5 · Total: 49.5 → 44.5
The books’ cut: 3.7%, the margin built into the odds
Home field
North Dakota State is worth +5.1 points (±6.3) more at home than on the road since 2018 — middle of FBS, 64th percentile.
100% at home, 56% on the road against FBS opponents (9-0 home, 5-4 away).
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads +2.9 at home vs. away over 59 games — inside the ±6.5 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.
Indoors — dome hosts have beaten the number by about a point and a half more than outdoor ones, on a small sample. The visitors travel about 1,165 miles to get here.
Where next
Conference standings
Going into this game: place in the conference, then conference record.
- North Dakota State3rd3-2
- UTEP9th0-3