The line in bold above each quote is written by our model from the thread’s comments and the play-by-play.
Q1 9:25NDSU fans celebrate Ray James Jr's interception of New Mexico's Fa'avaeThe comments from 5 minutes ago are funny to look back on now.r/CFB game threadMW after fucking dark boysr/CFB game thread
Q3 6:12Fans debate a questionable pass interference call on NDSU's touchdown driveBefore I saw the replay I thought it was the right call, but it really looked like he just tripped therer/CFB game threadNDSU just got gifted that touchdown with a horrendous PI callr/CFB game thread
Q4 10:13Fans argue over Coach Eck's heated reaction to a player's flop after NDSU scoresWhat was Eck pissed about on the td play?r/CFB game thread
Q4 1:51NDSU turns it over on downs, ending their comeback hopes with 1:33 leftWhat a bad ending for NDSUr/CFB game thread
New Mexico’s chance to win after every play. How to read this chartStarts from the pregame line (New Mexico -4.5), at 74% for New Mexico (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores. Under the scores, r/CFB comments per minute from fans with a New Mexico or North Dakota State flair (49 and 172); both sides share one scale, regulation only.Kickoff came 20 minutes late. Thunder was reported in the vicinity of Albuquerque International airport (1.9 miles away) from 7:06 p.m. to 7:16 p.m., around the delay.
Every drive
New Mexico scored on 2 of its 12 drives; North Dakota State on 3 of its 13.
New Mexico’s drives are teal, North Dakota State’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.
From North Dakota State’s side
North Dakota State’s best moment: Glasgow 42-yd field goal no good (Q4 12:10). It lifted North Dakota State’s win chance by 14 points.
How North Dakota State fans took it: “Good job, New Mexico. Time for bed, I'm old.” r/CFB game thread
When fans got loud
Busy
Fans were at their loudest with the game on the line.
North Dakota State’s chance to make the playoff fell from 1% to 0%.
Make the playoff
North Dakota State · lost1% → ▼0%
New Mexico · won6% → ▲7%
Win the conference
North Dakota State · lost30% → ▼24%
New Mexico · won43% → ▲49%
Before the game (October 24, 2026) → after this result alone, in our model. Other games that weekend move it too, so the team page may differ.
North Dakota State plays vs UTEP on Sat Oct 31 with a 0% chance to make the playoff. New Mexico plays at San José State on Sat Oct 31 with a 7% chance to make the playoff.
Box score
New Mexico 21, North Dakota State 16
New Mexico covered −4.5 by 0.5. The total, 37, stayed under 39.5.
Team totals
North Dakota State
New Mexico
Total yards
251
279
Passing
17 of 35, 198 yds
8 of 14, 92 yds
Rushing
28 for 53 yds
44 for 187 yds
First downs
13
15
Third down
5 of 15
3 of 13
Fourth down
0 of 1
0 of 0
Turnovers
2
1
Penalties
3 for 30 yds
3 for 24 yds
Time of possession
29:28
30:32
North Dakota State leaders
Passing Nathan Hayes 17 of 33, 198 yds, 2 TD, 2 INT
Rushing Myles Mitchell 10 for 34 yds; Nathan Hayes 4 for 10 yds
Receiving Jackson Williams 4 for 71 yds; Reis Kessel 4 for 57 yds, 1 TD
New Mexico leaders
Passing Toa Faavae 8 of 14, 92 yds, 1 INT
Rushing Kiefer Sibley 13 for 91 yds, 1 TD; Deshaun Buchanan 3 for 39 yds
Receiving Cade Keith 5 for 53 yds; Bailen George 1 for 22 yds
Kickoff came 20 minutes late
60° at kickoff · no rain recorded · wind 5 mph from the south-southeast, gusts to 13
Thunder was reported in the vicinity of Albuquerque International airport (1.9 miles away) from 7:06 p.m. to 7:16 p.m., around the delay.
North Dakota State 9, New Mexico 21 · New Mexico 95% to win
no rain · wind 2 mph from the south-southeast · 58°
Hayes intercepted by Brawley at the UNM44 and returned for a TD, New Mexico leads 21-9
Jump to
Where this weather comes fromMeasured at Albuquerque International airport, 1.9 miles away. The paler thunder bar is thunder reported in the vicinity of an airport. Wind and rain are airport readings near the stadium, not on the field. Game times come from the play-by-play, good to a minute or two. Source: National Weather Service, through the Iowa Environmental Mesonet. Field direction from OpenStreetMap contributors.
Before kickoff
Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.
Recent games
Last three games
North Dakota State · 6-1
Rated 89th in our preseason ratings, 56th now, up 33 spots.
2-1 in its last three — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.
New Mexico is rated 0.7 points ahead as of week 7. Our power rating by week; higher is better.
Matchups
Biggest mismatch: North Dakota State’s success rate against New Mexico, 81 points
Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.
North Dakota State’s explosive plays against New Mexico’s defense
North Dakota State offense, 83rd percentile · New Mexico defense, 4th
North Dakota State’s success rate against New Mexico’s defense
North Dakota State offense, 19th percentile · New Mexico defense, 100th
New Mexico’s passing EPA against North Dakota State’s defense
New Mexico offense, 21st percentile · North Dakota State defense, 97th
Season profile, all the rows
Season profile
North Dakota StateNew Mexico
EPA/play, offense
EPA/play, defense
Success rate, offense
Success rate, defense
Explosive-play rate, offense
Explosive-play rate, defense
Rush EPA, offense
Rush EPA, defense
Pass EPA, offense
Pass EPA, defense
Line, fans and home field
The betting line, and the fans
New Mexico fans are feeling it more than most fanbases this week (87th percentile among FBS fanbases), in line with the numbers.
New Mexico favored by 4.5 · Total 39.5
How games like this usually go
New Mexico by 4.5, and it went to form
Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game
The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 395 games since 2025 with a favorite of 3.5 to 7.5 points.
The market
The spread moved 1 point toward New Mexico.
The total fell 7 points.
Spread: −3.5 → −4.5 · Total: 46.5 → 39.5
The books’ cut: 4.2%, the margin built into the odds
Home field
New Mexico is worth +2.6 points (±4.0) more at home than on the road since 2018 — bottom third of FBS, 21st percentile.
40% at home, 27% on the road against FBS opponents (17-25 home, 13-36 away).
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads -2.1 at home vs. away over 98 games — inside the ±5.9 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.
Night kickoff — historically worth about half a point more to the home side against the number, and not much more than that. 5,100 ft of altitude — real, and smaller than the folklore: high venues run a point or two better against the number, noisily. The visitors travel about 963 miles to get here.
Where next
Conference standings
Going into this game: place in the conference, then conference record.
New Mexico 21-16 North Dakota State
New Mexico wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.