North Dakota State at Hawai'i
Hawai'i (2‑6) hosts North Dakota State (7‑2). Too early for a market line, but the model likes North Dakota State (72%). Hawai'i’s offense is at the 25th percentile on efficiency; North Dakota State’s defense is at the 98th.
How they got here
Last three games
North Dakota State · 7-2
Rated 89th in our preseason ratings, 62nd now, up 27 spots.
2-1 in its last three — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.
Last three games
Hawai'i · 2-6
Rated 59th in our preseason ratings, 109th now.
1-2 in its last three — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.
Biggest mismatch: Hawai'i’s EPA/play against North Dakota State, 73 points
Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.
Hawai'i’s EPA/play against North Dakota State’s defense
Hawai'i offense, 25th percentile · North Dakota State defense, 98th
Hawai'i’s explosive plays against North Dakota State’s defense
Hawai'i offense, 13th percentile · North Dakota State defense, 86th
Hawai'i’s passing EPA against North Dakota State’s defense
Hawai'i offense, 30th percentile · North Dakota State defense, 98th
What’s at stake
North Dakota State
- North Dakota State controls first place in Mountain West with 2 games left.
- North Dakota State hasn’t beaten a ranked opponent since 2016.
Hawai'i
- Hawai'i is coming off a 35-point win.
Face-off
What each fanbase carries into this one.
North Dakota State
The chip · vs the national mediaThe chip is fourteen years of national media calling the FCS titles impressive but small — asterisked by the level, dimmed by the division, never fully counted. Bison fans believe that ten championships under any banner is ten championships, and they are carrying that belief into the Mountain West to prove it matters at any altitude.
Hawai'i
The chip · vs the national mediaWarrior fans are sick of being the road trip nobody wants and the time zone nobody watches — a program that has to win twice as convincingly to get half the respect, and knows the mainland forgets it exists by Sunday morning.
What this game touches
The 2008 Sugar Bowl blowout. The unbeaten 2007 dream — Colt Brennan, a No. 10 final ranking, the first non-BCS island team to crash the party — ended 41-10 against Georgia, a national stage that doubled as the doubters' favorite exhibit that the islands couldn't hang.
Best players
North Dakota State
- Donovan Woolen (LB) · 66 tackles
- Jackson Williams (WR) · 614 receiving yards
- Gavin Sell (LB) · 46 tackles
Hawai'i
- Micah Alejado (QB) · 2,186 passing yards
- Jamih Otis (LB) · 53 tackles
- Kona Moore (DB) · 46 tackles
What to watch
Player to watch: Micah Alejado (QB) — Hawai'i’s leading passer (2,186 passing yards) takes on North Dakota State’s pass defense (98th percentile allowed).
The betting line, and the fans
North Dakota State fans are feeling it more than most fanbases this week (95th percentile among FBS fanbases), in line with the numbers.
Weather at kickoff
Typical at Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex: 7:30 pm Saturdays score 95, noon Saturdays 69
North Dakota State at Hawai'i · Saturday, Nov. 14 · 11:59 pm ET · Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex.
Weather score: 0 to 100, higher is better, for the first 3 hours and 20 minutes of the game. Ideal is 100, Comfortable 90 to 99, Mixed 75 to 89, Rough 50 to 74, Harsh under 50.
If it kicked off at
Typical at Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex: noon Saturdays score 69, 3:30 pm 80, 7:30 pm 95.
- noon: 69, Rough
- 3:30 pm: 80, Mixed
- 7:30 pm: 95, Comfortable
Typical weather score at each kickoff time.
Typical means the average of regular-season Saturdays at this stadium, 2018 to 2025. It is not a forecast for this game.
Home field
Hawai'i is worth +5.4 points (±3.7) more at home than on the road since 2018 — top third of FBS, 71st percentile.
58% at home, 29% on the road against FBS opponents (29-21 home, 14-35 away).
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads +3.8 at home vs. away over 106 games — inside the ±6.4 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.
Night kickoff — historically worth about half a point more to the home side against the number, and not much more than that. The visitors travel about 3,800 miles to get here.
Season profile
Week by week
Hawai'i
- Wk 4Lat Wyoming10-27
- Wk 5Lvs San José State16-20
- Wk 6Lat Arizona State12-30
- Wk 7Lvs New Mexico10-21
- Wk 8Wat Northern Illinois56-21
North Dakota State
- Wk 5Wvs Wyoming28-0
- Wk 6Lat UNLV7-13
- Wk 7Wvs Nevada31-17
- Wk 8Lat New Mexico16-21
- Wk 9Wvs UTEP31-7
Power rating by week
North Dakota State is rated 5.0 points ahead as of week 10. Our power rating by week; higher is better.
Conference standings
Going into this game: place in the conference, then conference record.
- Hawai'i8th1-4
- North Dakota State3rd4-2