2Q3 13:15FumbleAlejado fumbles, Peters returns it for a TD, blocked, ties it 19-19New Mexico State 11% → 25% (+14)
What fans said, play by play
The line in bold above each quote is written by our model from the thread’s comments and the play-by-play.
Q4 12:20Officials overturn fumble ruling on Stanley catch, sparking debateQuoted at the top of the page.I strongly disagree with overturning thatr/CFB game thread
Q4 5:41Hawaii fans celebrate Uiliata's touchdown pass to AbreuNice one gg hawaiir/CFB game thread
Hawai'i’s chance to win after every play. How to read this chartStarts from the pregame line (Hawai'i -7.5), at 75% for Hawai'i (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores. Outlined diamonds mark rare plays. The gray band is r/CFB game-thread activity, its loudest stretches in gold.
Every drive
Hawai'i scored on 6 of its 12 drives; New Mexico State on 2 of its 12.
Hawai'i’s drives are teal, New Mexico State’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.
Hawai'i covered −7.5 by 2.5. The total, 48, stayed under 50.5.
Team totals
New Mexico State
Hawai'i
Total yards
380
420
Passing
19 of 35, 256 yds
34 of 46, 353 yds
Rushing
31 for 124 yds
26 for 67 yds
First downs
23
21
Third down
4 of 10
5 of 15
Fourth down
0 of 1
1 of 1
Turnovers
3
1
Penalties
5 for 40 yds
4 for 37 yds
Time of possession
27:47
32:13
New Mexico State leaders
Passing Trey Hedden 19 of 35, 256 yds, 1 TD, 2 INT
Rushing James Jones 13 for 78 yds, 1 TD; Terrell Washington Jr. 6 for 30 yds
Receiving Tyler King 4 for 67 yds, 1 TD; AJ Williams III 3 for 54 yds
Hawai'i leaders
Passing Micah Alejado 33 of 45, 346 yds
Rushing Devon Rice 16 for 59 yds, 2 TD; Sitani Mikaele 7 for 12 yds
Receiving Tama Uiliata 10 for 107 yds; Audric Harris 4 for 105 yds
No rain through the game
82° at kickoff · no rain recorded
Drag along the chart, or step through the game.
First quarter, 14:45 left6:07 p.m.
New Mexico State 0, Hawai'i 0 · Hawai'i 75% to win
no rain · 82°
Hedden 18-yd pass to Jones
Where this weather comes fromMeasured at Honolulu airport, 6.8 miles away. Wind and rain are airport readings near the stadium, not on the field. Game times come from the play-by-play, good to a minute or two. Source: National Weather Service, through the Iowa Environmental Mesonet.
Before kickoff
Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.
Recent games
Last two games
New Mexico State · 1-1
Rated 150th in our preseason ratings, 148th now.
1-1 in its last two — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.
Biggest mismatch: Hawai'i’s explosive plays against New Mexico State, 61 points
Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.
Hawai'i’s explosive plays against New Mexico State’s defense
Hawai'i offense, 13th percentile · New Mexico State defense, 74th
Hawai'i’s passing EPA against New Mexico State’s defense
Hawai'i offense, 14th percentile · New Mexico State defense, 68th
Hawai'i’s EPA/play against New Mexico State’s defense
Hawai'i offense, 13th percentile · New Mexico State defense, 50th
Season profile, all the rows
Season profile
New Mexico StateHawai'i
EPA/play, offense
EPA/play, defense
Success rate, offense
Success rate, defense
Explosive-play rate, offense
Explosive-play rate, defense
Rush EPA, offense
Rush EPA, defense
Pass EPA, offense
Pass EPA, defense
The series
Hawai'i leads the series 11-1
12 meetings since 1978 · Hawai'i won the last meeting
2023Hawai'i 20-17
2022New Mexico State 45-26
2021Hawai'i 41-21
2021Hawai'i 48-34
2011Hawai'i 45-34
Each line is Hawai'i’s chance to win through that meeting. Older meetings have no play by play, so no line.
Line, fans and home field
The betting line, and the fans
New Mexico State fans are in a better mood than Hawai'i fans (91st vs 43rd among FBS fanbases), even with Hawai'i favored.
Hawai'i favored by 7.5 · Total 50.5
How games like this usually go
Hawai'i by 7.5, and it went to form
Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game
The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 385 games since 2025 with a favorite of 7.5 to 14.5 points.
The market
The spread moved 4 points toward New Mexico State.
The total fell 1 point.
Spread: −11.5 → −7.5 · Total: 51.5 → 50.5
The books’ cut: 4.3%, the margin built into the odds
Home field
Hawai'i is worth +5.9 points (±3.7) more at home than on the road since 2018 — top third of FBS, 80th percentile.
58% at home, 27% on the road against FBS opponents (29-21 home, 13-35 away).
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads +4.5 at home vs. away over 105 games — inside the ±6.4 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.
The visitors travel about 3,210 miles to get here.
Hawai'i · Q4 5:41
Hawai'i wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.